Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

Almost full Months since Gerasimov was last seen . Could be just hiding...but rumours earlyer claimed he was in command center where Ukraine hit.

a reply to: Kenzo

Heh, the background of that image hides really well!

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Just noticed now lol....Surovikin and other that i dont recognise .

Russians start using grenades with deadly toxins in Ukraine

"In December, the use of the RG-Vo grenade was recorded for the first time. This grenade contains chloroacetophenone, an asphyxiating substance prohibited by the Geneva Protocol on the use of Asphyxiating, Poisonous, or Other Gases in Warfare," says Rudyk.

Source

Something has to be done. Russia is now violating the Geneva convention on chemical warfare.

Will nobody hold them accountable?

originally posted by: JadedGhost

originally posted by: stu119

originally posted by: JadedGhost

originally posted by: firerescue
Putin threatens to reclaim Alaska

Vladamir Putin, the increasing delusional dictator of Russia, has signed a decree nullifying the 1867 sale of Alaska to the United States

www.msn.com...

Unfortunately such bluster has often preceded Russia seizing the aforementioned such as Crimea in 2014

While it is doubtful Putin and his cronies are dumb enough to try and retake Alaska Who can say ...........

Kind of makes you wonder what Trumps opinion on this is, or how he’d react if this happened while he was president… I mean, dudes got an opinion on everything and ain’t shy about calling out stupidity.

But when it comes to Russia, total silence. Kind of sad actually, for Ukraine especially… when you put the dots together and realize that the next POTUS is going to be nothing more than a Russian asset.

I honestly believe if Trump was president the war in Ukraine would be over. Not because he is a great diplomat, but because he wouldn't have funded the proxy war so Ukraine would have no choice but to cede land to Russia as they are incapable of defending themselves without the west supplying them with money and arms.

There's every chance that Zelensky will have to do this within Bidens term as president as the funding is stopping and US intelligence has previously stated that Russia have the upper hand.

Negotiations will see Russia keep what they have taken and then some - a redrawing of borders - and then it will end for the time being. Russians and Ukrainians are both growing tired of the war, neither side has the appetite for it beyond Putin.

If Trump gets back in he will repair relations with Russia and trade will return to normal.

So you admit, Trumps just going to give Putin whatever he wants then? Essentially just bend over, smile and give Putin the nod.

I suppose it’s not so far fetched to assume Trump would even entertain Putins whole demand of giving Alaska back then… since after all Russias got nuclear weapons, we don’t want to upset them, right?

Putin wants Ukraine and it's not Trump's to give.

He won't keep funding Bidens proxy war and Ukraine are already looking for ceasefire talks so it's likely he will advise in mediation that Russia keeps the land they have taken and recognise Crimea as Russian and that will cease the war.

originally posted by: JadedGhost

originally posted by: Imhere

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
21 January Update

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts, where repeated Ukrainian drone strikes may fix Russian short-range air defense systems defending potentially significant targets along expected flight routes. . . . A Russian insider source claimed on January 21 that Russian air defense coverage over Leningrad Oblast is poor and indicated that Russian air defenses in Leningrad Oblast are likely not arrayed to defend against strikes from the south.

Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the front.

Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the front.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Some earlier reports were apparently exaggerated how far the Russian advance was but it’s still a pretty substantial advance past days.

Russia is now inside Avdiivka. Similar to Bakhmut around the same time last year.

Also appears significant advances are gearing up in the north. And also west of Bakhmut.

It’s been predicted for a long time that Ukraine would inevitably concede Avdiivka to Russia.

Russia have been sending meat waves in there for months on end, beyond all logic or strategical gain. Russia wants that insignificant plot of land no matter what the cost.

Probably just so Putin can go to the elections with some kind of win under his belt.

Ukraine doesn’t see it as an “insignificant” plot of land, as they have been fortifying Avdiivka for years before 22’.

In fact, Avdiivka has been fortified since 2014 with larger battles in 2017.

Avdiivka is one of the most fortified settlements in Ukraine and has been described as a "gateway" to nearby Russian-occupied Donetsk city. Ukraine's continued control of Avdiivka has prevented Russia from using Donetsk and its resources as a communications hub and prevented Russian breakthroughs on this axis, despite heavy fighting for over a year.[16][17][18]

Avdiivka is an industrial city in the heart of Donetsk Oblast, located north of Donetsk city, the region's principal city.[18] Avdiivka is home to the Avdiivka Coke Plant, the largest coke producer in Ukraine and currently serving as a fortress for Ukrainian soldiers. The city had a pre-war population of 34,000 people.

Avdiivka has been located along the front lines of the Russo-Ukrainian War since 2014,[13][19] being a heavily fortified frontline settlement, replete with trench systems, firing positions, and concrete-reinforced bunkers.[19] The 2017 battle of Avdiivka resulted in destruction in the town,[failed verification] though Ukrainian forces maintained control of the city against pro-Russian separatists of the Donetsk People's Republic.[13]

en.m.wikipedia.org...(2017)
en.m.wikipedia.org...(2022–present)

What’s next, every city that falls in Ukraine is “insignificant” according to your logic?

Heard the same rhetoric last February when Bahkmut was folding.

a reply to: Bishop2199

chloroacetophenone, US code name CN is a tear gas in use since WW I

originally posted by: stu119

originally posted by: JadedGhost

originally posted by: stu119

originally posted by: JadedGhost

originally posted by: firerescue
Putin threatens to reclaim Alaska

Vladamir Putin, the increasing delusional dictator of Russia, has signed a decree nullifying the 1867 sale of Alaska to the United States

www.msn.com...

Unfortunately such bluster has often preceded Russia seizing the aforementioned such as Crimea in 2014

While it is doubtful Putin and his cronies are dumb enough to try and retake Alaska Who can say ...........

Kind of makes you wonder what Trumps opinion on this is, or how he’d react if this happened while he was president… I mean, dudes got an opinion on everything and ain’t shy about calling out stupidity.

But when it comes to Russia, total silence. Kind of sad actually, for Ukraine especially… when you put the dots together and realize that the next POTUS is going to be nothing more than a Russian asset.

I honestly believe if Trump was president the war in Ukraine would be over. Not because he is a great diplomat, but because he wouldn't have funded the proxy war so Ukraine would have no choice but to cede land to Russia as they are incapable of defending themselves without the west supplying them with money and arms.

There's every chance that Zelensky will have to do this within Bidens term as president as the funding is stopping and US intelligence has previously stated that Russia have the upper hand.

Negotiations will see Russia keep what they have taken and then some - a redrawing of borders - and then it will end for the time being. Russians and Ukrainians are both growing tired of the war, neither side has the appetite for it beyond Putin.

If Trump gets back in he will repair relations with Russia and trade will return to normal.

So you admit, Trumps just going to give Putin whatever he wants then? Essentially just bend over, smile and give Putin the nod.

I suppose it’s not so far fetched to assume Trump would even entertain Putins whole demand of giving Alaska back then… since after all Russias got nuclear weapons, we don’t want to upset them, right?

Putin wants Ukraine and it's not Trump's to give.

Well that’s definitely true, it wont stop him from trying though, if he gets elected.

Pretty disgraceful how the republicans are using Ukraine as a playing card to screw over Biden as well. They were all for funding Ukraine with military aid until the election cycle started, then all of a sudden they turn into a bunch of isolationist Putin supporters.

He won't keep funding Bidens proxy war and Ukraine are already looking for ceasefire talks so it's likely he will advise in mediation that Russia keeps the land they have taken and recognise Crimea as Russian and that will cease the war.

It’s not a “proxy war” it’s a blatant land grab by Putin. I don’t think Ukraine (or Europe in general) are looking for ceasefire talks either, they’re not so naive as to think Putin would honour any peace deal. He wants the old USSR back and will not stop til he gets it or gets shut down, it’s as clear as day.

a reply to: Imhere

Point being though, is that it’s essentially just a small piece of land and Russia have spent months trying to take it, sending in meat wave after meat wave.

The losses Russia have taken in man power and armoured vehicles trying to take Avdiivka is just mind boggling. So it won’t be a complete loss for Ukraine once Russia eventually take it.

originally posted by: Imhere
What’s next, every city that falls in Ukraine is “insignificant” according to your logic?

Heard the same rhetoric last February when Bahkmut was folding.

One way to consider what is "significant" is to look at a map of Ukraine and see if you can see a difference in the map on that scale.

On the left is the ISW map from Jan 25, 2023, and on the right is the ISW map a year later, from Jan 25, 2024. The significant changes I see over the last year are the removal of the blue shaded areas that show territories in Kherson and Kharkiv that Ukraine liberated in 2022.

www.understandingwar.org...
www.understandingwar.org...


Other changes are really hard to see on that scale, and thus not very significant on the scale of the entirety of Ukraine. That includes territory gained by Russia, including Bakhmut, and also territory gained by Ukraine, including Robotyne, over the last year.

Bakhmut wasn't strategically significant, I think it became more of a symbol for both sides.
Avdiivka is more strategically significant than Bakhmut was, but still if or when Russia captures Avdiivka, it will be just as small a blip on that map as when they took Bakhmut, which is a fairly small blip on that scale. And the losses Russia incurred in the Bakhmut campaign and is incurring in the Avdiivka campaign are huge. In 9 years of the Afghanistan war, Russia only had 15,000 soldiers killed, but they've lost more than that in just a few months in their meat wave attacks against Avdiivka.

So we will have to see how long the Russian people will tolerate those kinds of losses to invade a country that wasn't even threatening Russia. There was a lot of discontent in the soviet union over just losing those 15,000 soldiers in the Afghan war.

The candidate trying to run against Putin for president says he will probably lose to Putin this time around, but he thinks the next 6 years will be Putin's last. Though the interviewer keeps pointing out Putin's other rivals have been poisoned etc so he keeps asking if that will happen to this guy too, who doesn't seem to want to answer that question:

Hear from the candidate running against Putin for Russia's presidency

originally posted by: JadedGhost
a reply to: Imhere

Point being though, is that it’s essentially just a small piece of land and Russia have spent months trying to take it, sending in meat wave after meat wave.

The losses Russia have taken in man power and armoured vehicles trying to take Avdiivka is just mind boggling. So it won’t be a complete loss for Ukraine once Russia eventually take it.

Won’t be a complete loss for Ukraine?

I suggest to do a little more research about Avdiivka. And how in eastern Ukraine there’s industrialized cities there dotted along that were turned into strongholds over the years.

Some of these cities are major hubs for logistics for example.

Once this folds, it opens up the country more going west towards the dnipro.

That’s why they’re called key cities in the east.


Ukraine just took 10s of thousands of casualties last summer in the offensive ending up trying to take a village Robotyne.

en.m.wikipedia.org...

Which this village, is considered even less strategic than a key city like Avdiivka.

26 January Update

he circumstances of the January 24 crash of a Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft in Belgorod Oblast remain unclear. Ukrainian officials continued to warn that Russia is attempting to use the Il-76 crash to reduce Western support for Ukraine and noted that Russia has not provided any new evidence from the crash site.

The European Union (EU) will provide Ukraine with an additional five billion euros to meet “urgent military needs” in the near future.

Russia reportedly imported $1.7 billion worth of advanced microchips and semiconductors in 2023, primarily from the West, skirting Western sanctions intended to deprive Russia of such technology.

Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements throughout the theater.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Imhere
Some of these cities are major hubs for logistics for example.

Avdiivka is in a salient surrounded on three sides, so it would make a terrible logistics hub for that reason. The single supply road in and out of Avdiivka has been under pressure from Russian attacks, but Ukraine has just barely managed to keep that supply road viable for the last few months.

Once this folds, it opens up the country more going west towards the dnipro.

Even Al-Jazeera is saying it will be a tiny strategic, Pyrrhic victory, if or when Russia takes Avdiivka:

Analysis: Russia’s tiny, Pyrrhic advances in Ukraine’s east

Russia is making incremental inroads in eastern Ukraine and may soon hold the strategic town of Avdiivka.

That’s why they’re called key cities in the east.


Ukraine just took 10s of thousands of casualties last summer in the offensive ending up trying to take a village Robotyne.

en.m.wikipedia.org...

Which this village, is considered even less strategic than a key city like Avdiivka.

Agreed, Robotyne isn't strategic but it was on the way to the coast and they didn't make it to the coast, Robotyne was about as far as they got.

Ukraine hates Russia for invading their country (mostly), but the defense lines built near Robotyne under the direction of Russian general Surovikin earned their respect because yes, Ukraine did incur heavy losses just penetrating a small number of those, and there were many more on the way to the coast.

So, now that Ukraine has seen for themselves how effective those "Surovikin defense lines" were/are, they are making their own version of those, with combinations of minefields, trenches, and dragons teeth. The fighting is too close in Avdiivka to build such lines; any engineers working on them would be attacked. But Ukraine is digging in a little bit west of Avdiivka so if Russia does take it, they will encounter the same kind of defense lines trying to go further, as Ukraine encountered trying to go past Robotyne.

Ukraine finally moves to fortify front line, but could it be too little too late?

The reason Zelensky didn't build those defense lines earlier, is they would send a message of the expectation of failure of the counter-offensive, which would be bad optics. But now that their counter-offensive has failed, optics are already bad, so they are going ahead with building defense lines, not only west of Avdiivka, but along large parts of the front (maybe all except Kherson, I don't think either side has those kind of defense lines near Krynky). Ukraine is even planning to build some stronger defense lines along the border areas with Belarus and Russia, to make those attack vectors a lot more difficult.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: Imhere
What’s next, every city that falls in Ukraine is “insignificant” according to your logic?

Heard the same rhetoric last February when Bahkmut was folding.

One way to consider what is "significant" is to look at a map of Ukraine and see if you can see a difference in the map on that scale.

On the left is the ISW map from Jan 25, 2023, and on the right is the ISW map a year later, from Jan 25, 2024. The significant changes I see over the last year are the removal of the blue shaded areas that show territories in Kherson and Kharkiv that Ukraine liberated in 2022.

www.understandingwar.org...
www.understandingwar.org...

Other changes are really hard to see on that scale, and thus not very significant on the scale of the entirety of Ukraine. That includes territory gained by Russia, including Bakhmut, and also territory gained by Ukraine, including Robotyne, over the last year.

Bakhmut wasn't strategically significant, I think it became more of a symbol for both sides.
Avdiivka is more strategically significant than Bakhmut was, but still if or when Russia captures Avdiivka, it will be just as small a blip on that map as when they took Bakhmut, which is a fairly small blip on that scale. And the losses Russia incurred in the Bakhmut campaign and is incurring in the Avdiivka campaign are huge. In 9 years of the Afghanistan war, Russia only had 15,000 soldiers killed, but they've lost more than that in just a few months in their meat wave attacks against Avdiivka.

Can’t take Bahkmut without taking Soledar.

I would stop focusing on colors, and focus more on these “small blips” and details on the map that Russian keeps securing.

Because it’s these “blips” that is leading in the total collapse in the east.

Zelensky himself said last year right before Bahkmut fell, he said it basically creates a springboard for the Russian army to maneuver and go forward etc.

Also, about those “blue” areas you keep pointing at. How many loses did both Russia and Ukraine take during that northern Ukraine advance? Because its most likely both took a lot more loses on Bahkmut or on this past summer Ukrainian offense.

Russia wasn’t exactly dug in there at the time and it was sparsely defended/fortified and from what I remember left a lot of equipment behind. Which now it appears Russia learned from it.

Because since then Ukraine hasn’t been able to dislodge Russia much.

In fact, Ukraine just lost a major summer offensive and took 10s of thousands of casualties only to end up in a village Robotyne.

While losing ground on strategic cities elsewhere and now Avdiivka is falling.

Which you, and even to someone’s dismay knows it isn’t some worthless piece of land, as others here tried brushing off. And is counterproductive.

When in fact, it is considered one of the most fortified areas in Ukraine for awhile now.

a reply to: Imhere

May I ask, why do you hate Ukraine so much and why are you such a cheerleader for Putin?

How would you feel if your country was invaded?

originally posted by: Imhere
Also, about those “blue” areas you keep pointing at. How many loses did both Russia and Ukraine take during that northern Ukraine advance? Because its most likely both took a lot more loses on Bahkmut or on this past summer Ukrainian offense.

When as you say, Russia left a lot of equipment behind, they were running for their lives and abandoning their equipment and positions. So the Ukrainian losses in that battle were far less than they would be for a more typical offensive where the other party stays and fights to the last bullet, instead of running away.

Similar story for the other big blue area in Kherson, that loss by Russia was more the result of Russia being cut off from re-supply by the Dnipro river on the West bank, which forced them to leave, than pure counteroffensive, so Ukraine's losses were not huge when Russia more or less withdrew from that area.

Russia wasn’t exactly dug in there at the time and it was sparsely defended/fortified and from what I remember left a lot of equipment behind. Which now it appears Russia learned from it.

Because since then Ukraine hasn’t been able to dislodge Russia much.

No disagreement there, those blue areas were liberated before the Surovikin defense lines were built. After the Surovikin lines were built, they aren't completely impenetrable, but yes Ukraine did incur heavy losses trying to penetrate them. So respect where respect is due, the defense lines were pretty effective for this type of war, and Ukraine now realizes that, and that's why they are sort of copying that successful formula to try to make further Russian advances difficult, after Russia takes Avdiivka that is. Avdiivka is defended by some kind of defense lines, but it doesn't have the equivalent of the Surovikin lines around it, they are not that robust.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: Imhere
Also, about those “blue” areas you keep pointing at. How many loses did both Russia and Ukraine take during that northern Ukraine advance? Because its most likely both took a lot more loses on Bahkmut or on this past summer Ukrainian offense.

When as you say, Russia left a lot of equipment behind, they were running for their lives and abandoning their equipment and positions. So the Ukrainian losses in that battle were far less than they would be for a more typical offensive where the other party stays and fights to the last bullet, instead of running away.

Similar story for the other big blue area in Kherson, that loss by Russia was more the result of Russia being cut off from re-supply by the Dnipro river on the West bank, which forced them to leave, than pure counteroffensive, so Ukraine's losses were not huge when Russia more or less withdrew from that area.

Russia wasn’t exactly dug in there at the time and it was sparsely defended/fortified and from what I remember left a lot of equipment behind. Which now it appears Russia learned from it.

Because since then Ukraine hasn’t been able to dislodge Russia much.

No disagreement there, those blue areas were liberated before the Surovikin defense lines were built. After the Surovikin lines were built, they aren't completely impenetrable, but yes Ukraine did incur heavy losses trying to penetrate them. So respect where respect is due, the defense lines were pretty effective for this type of war, and Ukraine now realizes that, and that's why they are sort of copying that successful formula to try to make further Russian advances difficult, after Russia takes Avdiivka that is. Avdiivka is defended by some kind of defense lines, but it doesn't have the equivalent of the Surovikin lines around it, they are not that robust.

Surovikin lines are Surovikin lines.

And you can’t expect Ukraine now to copy it, and apply it everywhere.

As far as the Russian Surovikin lines go, they are the ones who developed it obviously. And the way it was applied didn’t mean they only kept digging trenches and set up mine fields.

It did most likely require some further ingenuity that was unique to the area and time also. Hence, why Ukraine got caught with their pants down and kept running into the chipper.

Now, Ukraine switching to a defensive phase after the unsuccessful summer offensive, should help strengthen the other areas in theory.

However, Russia has some momentum going forward and most likely knew this ahead of time on what will be next, and how it will adjust accordingly. So we’ll see.

Glad some points were agreed, and rather look forward to discussing the situation on a more constructive manner.

It’s good to have some balance in the discussion. Because from there it helps funnel it down to the actual reality of the situation.

27 January Update

Myanmar banks reportedly connected to the Russian System for the Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) banking system, a Russian analogue for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) banking system.

Russian forces conducted a limited series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on January 26 and 27. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure in Myrnohrad and Novohrodivka in Donetsk Oblast and Antonivka, Kherson Oblast with nine S-300 missiles and in Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast with an Iskander-M missile on January 26 and 27. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down all four Shahed-136/131 drones that Russian forces launched at Ukraine on January 27.

Russian forces made recent confirmed advances near Kupyansk, Kreminna, and Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on January 27.

More at URL above.

Cheers

January 28 Update

Unnamed Indian government sources stated that India wants to distance itself from Russia, its largest arms supplier, because the war in Ukraine has limited Russia’s ability to provide India with munitions.

Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and Avdiivka amid continued positional fighting throughout the theater.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Ukraine's security service says it has uncovered corruption in an arms purchase by the military worth about $40m (£31m).

The SBU said five senior people in the defence ministry and at an arms supplier were being investigated.

It said the defence officials signed a contract for 100,000 mortar shells in August 2022.

Payment was made in advance, with some funds transferred abroad, but no arms were ever provided.

Corruption has been a major stumbling block in Ukraine's bid to join the European Union.

www.bbc.co.uk...

Good to see all our tax payers money is being well spent