Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

31 January Update

Ukrainian forces struck Russian targets in the vicinity of Belbek airfield in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on January 31.

Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted a prisoner-of-war (POW) exchange on January 31, exchanging 195 Russian POWs for 207 Ukrainian POWs.

Bloomberg reported on January 31 that Western diplomats stated that EU partners will only deliver 600,000 artillery shells to Ukraine by the March 1, 2024 deadline.

Estonian Defense Forces Commander General Martin Herem stated that Russia may be behind recent GPS jamming in the Baltic region.

The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers approved and submitted an updated version of a draft law on mobilization to the Verkhovna Rada on January 30.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City amid positional engagements along the entire line of contact on January 31.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Well it looks like the US is sending nukes to the uk in the next few weeks. Russia has responded by saying it will place nukes in Cuba if the US does this.

In other news Russia has upgraded one of its air to ground missle payloads from 450kg to 850kg of explosives. They have also almost finished testing a new nuclear powered missile.

a reply to: Kenzo

Video of the Ivanovets during its conversion into a submarine.

a reply to: Kenzo

Several X accounts reported that Ukraine hit last night Guided Missile Corvette Ivanovets in the waters of Crimea

another well armed russian sub joins the fleet.

a reply to: gortex

Thanks I think the Russian black sea fleet is shrinking every year now .

a reply to: Kenzo

I think you mean "sinking"?

a reply to: Maybenexttime

Any chance of a source?

a reply to: Maybenexttime

Why is the US sending 'nukes' to the UK?
What purpose?

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Yes that too A lot coming scrap metal ...

originally posted by: Kenzo

Several X accounts reported that Ukraine hit last night Guided Missile Corvette Ivanovets in the waters of Crimea


Guided Missile Corvette Ivanovets


Some say the Ivanovets sank . $60-70 million dollars is the worth .

Not any more, it seems?

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: Maybenexttime

Why is the US sending 'nukes' to the UK?
What purpose?

Remember in the 80s during the Cold War we were America's biggest aircraft carrier ?

US Nukes are being sent here.

a reply to: Freeborn

The United States is reportedly planning to station nuclear weapons at RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, marking the first such deployment in the United Kingdom in 15 years.

From the UK defence journal
It was all over the news too
Rainbows
Jane

a reply to: angelchemuel

Thanks. Any source for the Cuba thing?

Russian proganda wants us to believe that sanctions aren't having an effect. Joe Blogs on youtube just made some graphs using Russia's published data, which shows that sanctions are having a HUGE effect on oil and gas revenues, which were down 65% in 2023, compared to the pre-invasion year 2021! When you consider that Russia has been compared to a "gas station posing as a country", because Russia's entire economy has historically been so dependent on oil and gast export revenue, this 65% decline has huge implications. Here's the video where Joe presents the graphs showing the devastating effects of the sanctions:

RUSSIAN Ruble Collapse & Sanctions are Crushing Russian Economy as Oil & Gas Revenues Fall 65%


Look at how much oil and gas revenues have fallen from 2021 to 2023, which is a serious issue for a country so heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues for its economy.


One of the biggest implications is that Russia went from an economy that was earning more than it spent in 2021, to 2023 where it's now spending more than it earns, using up it's "savings" or "reserves" to try to keep the country going, but as we've seen, they are spending so many of these reserves on missiles to attack Ukraine (billions worth) that they don't have enough money left to repair and maintain their infrastructure which is supposed to keep Russian citizens from freezing in the winter.

Check out this graph of Russia's defecit. Again, this graph is made from Russia's own figures, and shows they were in deficit the entire year of 2023:


Russia has some "rainy day funds" or reserves set aside to cover deficits like this, but when the reserves run out, Russia is flat broke and can't keep running the country. They aready can't keep Russian citizens from freezing due to failing infrastructure they can't afford to repair, while they are spending so much on missiles to attack Ukraine.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Bloomberg reported on January 31 that Western diplomats stated that EU partners will only deliver 600,000 artillery shells to Ukraine by the March 1, 2024 deadline.

They promised a million, so that's a shortfall of 400,000.

Meanwhile Russia is ramping up their own production and getting shells from Iran and N Korea too. A UK general said that Russia fires five artillery shells for every one fired by Ukraine lately, so Ukraine has a huge disadvantage in quantity. That's disadvantage is partially offset by Uraine's advantage that their artillery tends to be more accurate, but still, that probably doesn't make up for the 5 to one shelling ratio.

a reply to: gortex

Yeah, I remember those days mate....too well.

Just wondering what the reasoning is?
Despite the situation in Ukraine there is no reason to suspect a nuclear exchange is imminent and I'm not sure how much the 'deterrent' excuse is believable nowadays.

I accept we need our own independent nuclear capability but I'm not sure how comfortable I am with nuclear weapons of another country being stationed here whose deployment we have no say or control over?

Wondering what the reasoning and justifications are?

a reply to: Freeborn

I think it's part of the build up for NATO v Russia , Putin can't afford to lose and NATO can't afford to let him win in Ukraine so baring a miracle war between the two seems inevitable.

In the 80s I thought the 21st Century would be cool , turns out I was wrong.

a reply to: gortex

My concern would be who has the ultimate say in their useage - the UK, US or NATO?

I don't think even Biden or Trump would initiate a first strike nuclear attack on Russia.
But can we say the same about a desperate Putin?
If more nukes are here its only fair to assume we are an even bigger target, but then again Putin has previously stated that the UK would amongst the first targeted in any nuclear escalation.

ETA.
Clarity & accuracy

a reply to: Arbitrageur

The recent drone attacks to Russian oil refineries seems work :

Russia cuts gasoline, diesel exports to offset refinery outages

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Nope, but Google is your friend too.....
Rainbows
Jane

a reply to: angelchemuel

Yes it is

bulawayo24.com...

Searches also show that Russia has been sabre rattling about Cuba (and Nicaragua) for quite a few years.

More doom porn from the usual suspects?