Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

19 January Update

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances southeast of Kupyansk, and Ukrainian forces recently regained positions southeast of Kupyansk amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact.

More at URL above.

Also, a Russian oil storage facility in Klintsy was hit by a drone strike and set ablaze.

Cheers

originally posted by: pureblood69
Did you see the pic of the leader of the Ukrainian armed forces wearing a bracelet with a swastika

If you support Ukraine you are a Nazi supporter .

Nazis

Could this be a form of projection “pureblood”?

I support Ukraine over Putin, I say Putin rather than Russia because I still think there are plenty of Russians that think he is sending his own country swirling down the toilet bowl. You can see though, that there is a fear of speaking up.
The fear of being conscripted, jailed, or shot.

If you aren’t clear about the swirling toilet analogy I have used, let me explain.
A toilet bowl that swirls, is similar to an outhouse. But it’s indoors, and connected to a water source, which is what causes the swirling action.

20 JanuaryUpdate

Russian Ambassador to Denmark Vladimir Barbin threatened Denmark, a founding member of NATO, on January 20 in response to a recent US-Danish agreement allowing US forces access to military bases in Denmark.

Russian forces conducted a limited series of strikes against Ukraine on January 20 amid continued Russian efforts to test and pressure Ukrainian air defenses. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched seven Shahed-136/131 drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai, and three S-300 missiles from occupied Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces intercepted four of the drones and that the S-300 missiles struck Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces made confirmed advances along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the front.

More at URL above.

Cheers

By just reading some Twitter / X sources last few days , there has been a lot drone attacks in Russia ,it seems ?

This morning read about Ukrainian drone attack in Baltic sea Novatek LNG terminal at the Ust-Luga Port west of St. Petersburg and Shcheglovsky Val military factory that produces Pantsir-S missile air defense systems in Tula .

Now imagine this campaign continue Months forward , i think it will start show In Russia , problems increasing .

It seems like Russian air defense can not fully to cope the drone situation, they shoot some down, but others manage to drop payloads daily .

a reply to: Kenzo
Ukraine's domestic made drone that attacked St. Petersburg flew 1250 km. I think that's the longest or one of the longest range drone attacks Ukraine made into Russian territory. The straight-line distance was shorter than that, maybe only 1000km, but both Russia and Ukraine try to identify each other's air defenses and program their drones and missiles to follow a course which may not be a straight line to the target to avoid those defenses. I think the extra 250 km was flown to avoid Russian air defenses. Another example of this kind of flight path was the Russian missile that went into Poland air space to make a U-turn and attack Ukraine from the opposite direction.

Also keep in mind there used to be many more air defense systems around St Petersburg. But Russia figured they didn't need all those to defend against Ukraine, which a year ago, they didn't, so they removed many of those defenses and some were moved closer to the front line with Ukraine. Now it looks like St Petersburg can be targeted by Ukraine after all.

Ukraine says it hit targets in St Petersburg with domestic-made drone

Jan 18 (Reuters) - Ukraine hit targets in Russia's St Petersburg overnight using a domestic-produced drone that flew 1,250 km (775 miles), a Ukrainian government minister was quoted as saying by Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Thursday.
A Ukrainian military source told Reuters earlier that an oil terminal in Russia's second city, located some 850 km (530 miles) from the nearest section of the Ukrainian border, was targeted as part of a "new stage of work in this region".
"...Last night we hit the target, and this thing flew exactly 1,250 kilometres last night," Oleksandr Kamyshin, the minister of strategic industries who oversees weapons production, was quoted as saying in Davos.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Yeeh good points , trying to avoid air def is wise move . I remember now when you mentioned that they removed some air def units/batterys from St Petersburg area

Exclusive: Russia moves missiles from St Petersburg to Ukraine



I think it was Xtrozero who writed that Ukrainians are good at making drones, and using them.

The new strike at Novatek LNG terminal at the Ust-Luga is getting closer to me , i looked it`s only about 135 km from me, that is quite close for a flying drone , they are really expanding the range ...

There are actually two wars going on with Russia. Ukraine and Russia are at war with military hardware, which is the war that gets most of the attention.

The other war is fought with sanctions and economics. Russia's main export historically has been the sale of oil and gas, and those sales are way down. Europe is buying much less natural gas from Russia. Oil sales are down too, partly due to sanctions and partly because Russia has been only partially successful in getting around those, and is trying to do so by selling oil at lower prices than they otherwise would have, to China and India, primarily.

One of the next largest exports from Russia after oil and gas has been military hardware. The blow to this sector of the Russian economy can't be blamed on western sanctions, but rather is a direct result of Russia "showing off" to the entire world how ineffective its weapons systems actually are in real battle conditions. Russia used mostly T72 and T80 tanks in its war with Chechnya, avoiding use of the T90, so it could continue to sell those to customers who believed Russia's propaganda that the T90 simply wasn't needed for such a feeble foe.

But that has changed in the war with Ukraine where Russia has deployed T-90 tanks which have proven to be as problematic as the T72 and T80 with their infamous "pop-up" turrets, caused from ammo inside the tank detonating because it's not kept in a separate compartment like in some western main battle tanks such as the Abrams.

The entire world has seen Ukraine, basically a country with no navy, sink the Russian navy's flagship, the Moskva, and sink or damage numerous other ships which don't seem capable of defending themselves.

And so on with other Russian military hardware. This video is a compilation of how the weaknesses in Russian military equipment have been exposed by their poor performance against Ukraine, though poor training of soldiers operating the equipment also plays a role. The Russian tank crews keep getting killed in those pop-up turret explosions, so they often don't survive long enough to gain experience.

Why ALL Russian Weapons SUCK (Tanks, Ships, Planes, Armor) - COMPILATION

00:00:00 - Why Putin's Most Advanced Main Battle Tank Is A Complete Disaster
00:19:12 - How Ukraine HUMILIATED Putin's Navy
00:38:17 - Why Putin is Scared to Deploy the Su-57 Aircraft in Ukraine and More Reasons Why he is Terrified
01:00:02 - Why New Russian Body Armor is Completely Useless
01:19: 25 - Russian T-90 Tank Absolutely SUCKS
01:39:31 -Russia's Massive Naval Problem
01:59:46 - How Inferior Training is Killing Russian Pilots
02:17:14 - How Ukraine Easily Destroyed Russia's 'Terminator' Super Tank
02:36:27 - Why Russia's Next Generation Tanks (T-14 Armata) SUCK
02:46:56 -Russia's T-14 Armata Tank vs Leopard Tank

So the natural consequence of the weaknesses of Russian military hardware being exposed in their war with Ukraine is that there is less demand for poorly performing Russian weapon systems. This results in another large blow to the Russian economy in dropping military equipment exports:

Why the Russian Arms Export Industry Is in Deep Trouble


So with Russia's largest exports of oil, gas and arms dropping, the Russian economy is not doing well and this tends to be reflected in the weaker russian ruble, which is causing more problems for Russia's imports and exports:


RUSSIAN Ruble Collapse is Destroying Economy as Import Costs Push up Inflation & Interest Rates


Russian propaganda wants the world to believe that sanctions are having no effect. Russia has taken some clever actions to get around sanctions, but despite this, the sanctions are still having an effect which the entire world can see in declining Russian exports of oil and gas. Arms exports are also declining, though this can't be blamed on sanctions but on the poor performance of Russian weapons. The declining exports in Russia's largest export industries ultimately results in declining value of the ruble. While Russia has taken some short term measures to prevent the ruble from falling further, even Russian bankers and finance ministers admit there will be long term consequences to the Russian economy, from these actions trying to temporarily prop up the currency.

So when you see that Russian infrastructure is falling apart and causing Russian citizens to freeze, and that Russia doesn't have money to fix it, a lot of this problem really can be attributed to Russia's unfortunate decision to invade Ukraine.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Also the Chinese have commented about the Kinzhal, touted by the Kremlin as an "unstoppable" hypersonic weapon


Russia's Kinzhals are frustrating Chinese analysts who want to find out how Beijing's hypersonic missiles might stack up against US battlefield defenses


There may open new front " possibly " in future , like Republic of Bashkortostan . But it`s too early to see is that going anywhere , but generally there are regions that are really unhappy they belong to Russia .

The most recent protests in the Republic of Bashkortostan (currently part of Russia)

Putin threatens to reclaim Alaska

Vladamir Putin, the increasing delusional dictator of Russia, has signed a decree nullifying the 1867 sale of Alaska to the United States

www.msn.com...

Unfortunately such bluster has often preceded Russia seizing the aforementioned such as Crimea in 2014

While it is doubtful Putin and his cronies are dumb enough to try and retake Alaska Who can say ...........

a reply to: Kenzo

Bit more on that ...

The giant Ust-Luga complex, located on the Gulf of Finland about 170 km (110 miles) west of St. Petersburg, is used to ship oil and gas products to international markets. It processes stable gas condensate - a type of light oil - into light and heavy naphtha, kerosene and diesel to be shipped by sea.

It was not clear how long the disruption would last, how many tankers would have to idle outside the port, and what the knock-on effect would be on international energy markets.

The Interfax-Ukraine news agency, citing unnamed sources, said the fire was the result of a special operation carried out by Ukraine's security services.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Thanks , marinetrafic shows many tankers at the Luga bay now , i dont know how much there is usually thought .

21 January Update

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts, where repeated Ukrainian drone strikes may fix Russian short-range air defense systems defending potentially significant targets along expected flight routes. . . . A Russian insider source claimed on January 21 that Russian air defense coverage over Leningrad Oblast is poor and indicated that Russian air defenses in Leningrad Oblast are likely not arrayed to defend against strikes from the south.

Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the front.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
21 January Update

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts, where repeated Ukrainian drone strikes may fix Russian short-range air defense systems defending potentially significant targets along expected flight routes. . . . A Russian insider source claimed on January 21 that Russian air defense coverage over Leningrad Oblast is poor and indicated that Russian air defenses in Leningrad Oblast are likely not arrayed to defend against strikes from the south.

Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the front.

Russian forces advanced near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the front.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Some earlier reports were apparently exaggerated how far the Russian advance was but it’s still a pretty substantial advance past days.

Russia is now inside Avdiivka. Similar to Bakhmut around the same time last year.

Also appears significant advances are gearing up in the north. And also west of Bakhmut.

22 January Update

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Kyiv on January 22 and announced a new Polish defense package for Ukraine.

Russian forces made confirmed advances south of Avdiivka and west of Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.

More at URL above.

Cheers

23 January Update

Western states reiterated their support for Ukraine and their commitment to the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) at the 18th Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 23.

NATO concluded contracts on January 23 for the purchase of over 200,000 artillery shells, likely either to allow NATO to send additional aid to Ukraine or to replenish NATO stockpiles.

Russian forces conducted a series of missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 22-23 with a new strike package likely meant to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched four S-300/S-400 ground-to-air missiles, 15 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles, eight Kh-22 cruise missiles, 12 Iskander ballistic missiles, and five Kh-59/Kh-31 missiles and that Ukrainian forces shot down all of the Kh-101/555/55 missiles, five Iskander missiles, and two Kh-59 missiles.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on January 23.

More at URL above.

Cheers

what do you all make of the UK gov warning that we could be called up to fight against Russia

I see alot of youtube comments everyone saying they can go # themselves

www.bbc.co.uk...

Ukraine shot this down or Russia intentionally crashed it?

The Russian defence ministry says a military plane has crashed in Belgorod, near the Ukrainian border
"On board were 65 captured Ukrainian army servicemen being transported for exchange, six crew members and three escorts," the ministry says
The local governor says there are no survivors - the BBC cannot yet verify who was on board, or what caused the plane to crash
Verified video shows a plane going down near the village of Yablonovo, 70km (44 miles) to the north-east of Belgorod
A member of Russia's parliament accuses Ukraine of shooting down the plane using Western weapons - but provides no evidence

a reply to: stu119

I saw in the footage what looks like a puff of smoke in the air

either it was hit by something ,or maybe one of the prisoners managed to break free and oveerpower the 3 guards and something bad happened in the struggle causing it to crash
but who knows

pretty terrible either way

a reply to: stu119

Some source say :

The plane last arrived in Belgorod from Iran, and was shot down after take off from Belgorod heading northeast.

So if that`s true ? ...we dont know yet...i doubt there was Ukrainian POWs in that plane

The russians are hysterical about this . Maybe because there was something very important in that plane

originally posted by: sapien1982
what do you all make of the UK gov warning that we could be called up to fight against Russia

I see alot of youtube comments everyone saying they can go # themselves

How can the government call people up to fight Russia when we aren't at war with Russia?

Even if NATO were to get involved, this would never happen, the youth of today would most likely refuse so whichever party tried to pass this in parliament would be cast out of power for decades by voters.

Add to that any UK action would not involve boots on the ground beyond Special Forces given the distance of Russia to the UK posing little threat of our democracy or rule being overtaken by Putin.