Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Freeborn

If you were Russian, I would be advising you to be wary of door knobs, tea and upper floor windows and balconies.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

If I was Russian I would have been Gulag'd or defenestrated years ago mate....but I would have taken a fair few of the buggers with me I assure you.

a reply to: Freeborn

Hang on, there's a couple of Russian guys just knocked on the door asking for directions to the famous spire at Salisbury Cathedral....be right back....

a reply to: Kenzo

At least they havent asked for UK to be taken back .........

a reply to: firerescue

No. Just erased by tsunami nukes.

originally posted by: Maybenexttime

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Maybenexttime

Ah. Those free and fair referendums....

Has there been violent uprisings in Crimea?

Do you have links to any crimeans speaking out against Russia?

Denys Davydov was born and raised in Crimea, he posts updates on the war on his youtube and telegram channels, speaking out against Russia every day:

www.youtube.com...@DenysDavydov/videos
Here's his latest, explaining how Ukraine is trying to encircle the Russian forces that entered part of Avdiivka:

Big Ukrainian Attack in Avdiivka. Ruzzians could be cut out | Zaluzhny Drama

Denys no longer lives in Crimea so he can speak out against Russia without fear of being imprisoned there.

Of course with Crimea being under Russian control, any Crimeans still living there would face imprisonment if they spoke out against the war now, it's part of Russia and that's not allowed under Russian law as Oldcarpy2 suggests. You really don't want to become a prisoner in Russia now, because you may get sent to the front lines, and now they don't release you if you survive the first 6 months like prisoners did under their contracts with Yevgeny Prigozhin previously.

Of the ethnic Russians living in Crimea, the fact that they were ethnic Russians didn't automatically mean they were eager to become part of Russia. In 2013 before Russia annexed it, Crimea had a degree of autonomy and keeping that status quo wasn't even an option for them in the sham ballot they voted on under gunpoint to annex them under Russia. There was quite a mix of people living there with different views, as summarized here by someone who researched the topic:

Were Crimeans really pro-Russian before annexation?

How did Crimea’s residents feel before the war?

My research shows that identity in Crimea was far more complex than a region with a Russian, or pro-Russian, majority. Few in Crimea identified as pro-Russian nationalists. In fact, only those I interviewed within pro-Russian parties and movements identified as such. Instead, many identified as ethnically Russian, but with few cultural or political ties to Russia. Many others identified as between Ukraine and Russia: as Crimean. Meanwhile, many younger people did not identify, ethnically, even as Russian speakers, rather they identified as Ukrainian citizens.

Denys Davydov I think falls into the latter category; he clearly identifies as Ukrainian.

a reply to: Kenzo
Genghis Khan really got around. Maybe he needed all that territory to finance his child support payments for all those children he fathered?

30 January Update

The anticipated Russian 2024 winter-spring offensive effort is underway in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border area. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on January 30 that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is currently ongoing and that Russian forces aim to reach the Zherebets River (in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border area) and the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Horlivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on January 30.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Ukrainian drone attack St. Petersburg, Russia in oil reinery , it was last night apparently.

What is interesting that some claim Russia used the S-400 to stop it , but it seems like the drone still managed to cause big fire there .

Not really good PR for russian weapon manufacturers .

Mission failed: Russian aircraft intending to violate German airspace intercepted, escorted over Baltic Sea

Today, on January 30, Germany was forced to scramble a fighter jet to intercept a Russian military aircraft, reports the German Air Force.

It is noted that the fighter jet took off from runway A at Laage and detected the Russian military aircraft in the international airspace over Rügen. The German fighter had been accompanying it for a short period before it turned back to the east.

Source

The article states that the aircraft was flying without a transponder signal.

So...Is this the Russians trying to see how serious Germany is about backing Ukraine?

Or is Russia trying to provoke another country into firing the first shot?

a reply to: Bishop2199

The Russian flying there may be deliberate , to keep up tensions between Russia and NATO.

They somehow think that doing these stunts is good for Russia . The GPS jamming is another what they do quite often .

They want their show , so they can keep up tension and play macho man role...

Not normal behaviour of course, but it's the Russian style thing.....

Not looking good for Zelensky.

He’s trying to replace his top general (who has the backing of the army) out of fear of losing power. And recent polls showing the general has more popularity.

Also the Ukrainian general pointed out (Zelensky with holding Bahkmut at all costs) about not pulling out of Bakhmut earlier as it possibly hinged the recent failed Ukrainian summer offensive.

Ukraine’s top general refuses request from Zelenskiy to step down.

www.theguardian.com...

Volodymyr Zelenskiy asked his most senior military commander, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, to step down on Monday but the popular general refused, triggering speculation that he will be dismissed instead.

Tensions between the two have been simmering for weeks amid the failure of Ukraine’s summer counter-offensive but the suggestion that Zaluzhnyi could be forced out nevertheless came as a shock to many.

It is not clear that the matter will end there. Goncharenko said Zelenskiy could dismiss Zaluzhnyi and replace him – a process that requires the support of the defence minister – after assessing the public and international reaction.

The most likely replacement would be Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, responsible for covert operations against Moscow. Budanov was touted earlier this year as a replacement for Oleksii Reznikov as defence minister, in another protracted dismissal saga that began with similar bouts of speculation.

All of this while Ukraines recent mass corruption being exposed more at the top level.

Also being reported on multiple sources.

www.washingtonpost.com...

www.nytimes.com...

a reply to: Imhere

Its common for civilian leaders to have difference of opinions with military leaders in times of war.....even Churchill disagreed with his Generals etc during WWII at times.

Now if Zelensky had as many issues as Putin has had over the last two years I'd sort of agree with you.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: Imhere

Its common for civilian leaders to have difference of opinions with military leaders in times of war.....even Churchill disagreed with his Generals etc during WWII at times.

Now if Zelensky had as many issues as Putin has had over the last two years I'd sort of agree with you.

You’re not getting it. It’s a situation that has people concerned because Zaluzhny has higher popularity than Zelensky especially with the military.

Zelensky basically fired Zaluzhny.

And Zaluzhny said ok, you and what army?

There’s been a rift between them for multiple reasons.

One is that Zaluzhny remarked and pointed at the recent failed summer Ukrainian offensive on being pinned at Bahkmut.

As Zelensky wanting to defend Bahkmut at all costs, not pulling out and having it affect the overall offensive at the time.

Which PR wise makes Zelensky look bad. While Zaluzhny holds the popularity.

a reply to: Imhere

I 'get' more than I think you realise.....I just happen to disagree with you.

Let's wait and see how this plays out before being so alarmist.

a reply to: Imhere

Has Zelensky faced having his soldiers heading in armoured columns towards his capital in an act of armed insurrection?

Did you forget that Putin did?

How convenient.

a reply to: Imhere

"All of this while Ukraines recent mass corruption being exposed more at the top level.".

Yes. But exposed by.....Ukraine?

Perhaps Putin might follow suit?

Probably not as he is the most corrupt of them all.

a reply to: Imhere

"Zelensky basically fired Zaluzhny.'.

Sigh. Your own source says he has not been "dismissed " but that he was asked to "step down".

Do you not read your own sources or is this just more propaganda lies you expect us to swallow?

a reply to: Imhere

Meanwhile, the "American Russian missiles" hit the population centers of Ukraine while everyone is hand wringing, in disappointment at the lack of funding to end this war.Who is playing who?

originally posted by: annonentity
Who is playing who?

What do you mean who is playing who?

The video says western countries applied sanctions on shipping western microchips from the US and other western countries directly to Russia. The sanctions don't prevent microchips from being shipped to other countries, for example Kazakhstan bordering Russia, and the chips are then smuggled from there into Russia. Other countries like the Maldives have shell companies operated probably ultimately by or for the benefit of the Russian FSB to obfuscate the final destination of the microchips being shipped to the Maldives.

So, the video is saying Putin found a way around the sanctions on microchips, using 3rd parties, and that the west is still trying to shut down all the third party routes they can but they are so many they can't stop them all. It doesn't say or imply anybody playing anybody relevant to your "who is playing who?" question.

The sanctions on oil have been somewhat more successful than the sanctions on microchips. Russia found a way around those sanctions too by selling oil at discount prices to India and China. The prices are so low that has put a dent in Russia's income so they are now operating at a deficit for the first time in a long time. This is more of a problem for Russia which has difficulty borrowing money on global markets, not only because of the sanctions, but because they are now known as thieves for stealing 10 billion dollars worth of airplanes, and investors are wary that Russia may steal their investments too, so investors are loathe to invest in Russia these days.

Not only that, but things aren't going well with the oil they are selling to India which pays for it in Rupees, and Russia hasn't figured out a way to use all those Rupees, because India only produces a limited amount of exports that Russia actually wants. So at least the natural gas and oil revenues in Russia are suffering, two of their biggest exports, so sanctions may be helping with those even if Russia is finding ways around the microchip sanctions.

This talks about the decline in Russian oil exports, especially to India:
RUSSIAN Oil Exports to India Collapsing due to Currency Problems, Pricing Issues & Sanctions


This talks about the decline in Russian natural gas exports:
RUSSIAN Reserves Value Crashes as Pipeline Sales Collapse & LNG Sales Fall Despite Massive Reserves


Another big export from Russia is also suffering, arms exports. This is because now the whole world can see the substandard performance of Russian arms on the Ukraine battlefield and global demand for Russian arms has also dropped, making it a triple whammy along with drops in export revenues from oil and gas.

Why the Russian Arms Export Industry Is in Deep Trouble


So the front lines on the battlefield in Ukraine may be at a standstill or barely moving, and maybe western sanctions on microchips to Russia have been somewhat or maybe even largely ineffective, but sanctions on oil and natural gas are having an effect on the economic war against Russia, along with the rapid decline in Russia's arms exports due to their poor performance being exposed on the battlefield for all the world to see. Whether the Russian economy gets bad enough for the Russian people to want to do something about it like replace their leader to end the war and sanctions, remains to be seen.

I am sure the Russian people still freezing due to failing infrastructure in Russia that isn't being repaired due to lack of funds, want to stop freezing!

Several X accounts reported that Ukraine hit last night Guided Missile Corvette Ivanovets in the waters of Crimea


Guided Missile Corvette Ivanovets


Some say the Ivanovets sank . $60-70 million dollars is the worth .