Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: dust2023

1. Expanded border with NATO, wrecked economy, military shown to be far weaker than believed, Diplomatically isolated. Strange view of winning.

2. See above.

3. Are any not?

4. Russia hasn't even been successful enough to face a Vietnam like situation in Ukraine yet.

5. Under Russian occupation. Hardly legitimate.

6.Authoritarians tend to view liberal democracies like that.

7. It isn't just the US and I don't think you get quite how out classed Russia is on the resource stakes.

8. China maybe. Russia not going to happen.

originally posted by: dust2023
3. This is a diplomatic war. Notice that no one has moved an inch in the northeast border btwn russia and ukraine. Why?

You didn't really address my point about the budapest memorandum.

If no one has moved an inch in the northeast border between Russia and Ukraine, please explain the blue area of this map of the Sumy Oblast:

Yellow area = Ukrainian territory never occupied
Blue Area = Ukrainian territory liberated from occupation

That looks like a lot of movement to me, way more than an inch. And in that oblast in particular, it looks like Russia's invasion attempt was completely defeated and reversed. I would say Ukraine won there.

lets just see what happens. i think ukraine is losing. you think they are winning. time will tell.

all the blood and treasure was not worth it this time in my mind. maybe it is to you. in the best world they would both lose. maybe that is what is actually happening.

originally posted by: dust2023
lets just see what happens. i think ukraine is losing. you think they are winning. time will tell.

You're putting words in my mouth. I didn't say Ukraine is winning lately. I said they already won in Sumy, but that was last year when the Russian military had a lower budget and there was no end in sight to the support Ukraine was getting from its allies.

Recently I made a long post about how the tide might be turning against Ukraine because the Russian military has more than doubled its military budget in 2024 to what it was in 2021 so that's bad news for Ukraine, plus the support from their allies is delayed, like Europe promised to deliver a million artillery shells to Ukraine on a certain schedule, and they are failing to make the promised deliveries.

So that's a double-whammy for Ukraine of more enemy support and less friendly support then they need or expected, and Ukraine is already facing bad shortages of artillery shells, which might be the reason they started losing some ground.

So maybe we agree that 2024 will be a rough year for Ukraine, and it will get even worse if their allies pull back support.

So far, the conflict hasn't caused the loss of any American soldiers unless you count some former soldiers who volunteered for Ukraine's international legion, and that's not many.

Sure it's a bad situation, and both sides already have lost many of thousands of people, and will lose more before it's over, but the US had a role in Ukraine giving up its nukes and per the Budapest memorandum I think should help at least with supplies. Placating Russia is part of the reason we are in this mess, since nobody lifted a finger to help Ukraine when Russia took Crimea. That was so easy, Russia just figured they would take more and it needs to stop somewhere. So while having a war is bad, giving Russia whatever land it wants to take by force seems like a worse idea. Where will it stop once you do that? It obviously didn't stop at Crimea like many thought it would.

even if the US committed soldiers, they will have a terrible time getting actual soldiers to the front. i would say that at least 50% of american males are little more than cannon fodder.

i apologize, but it is true. the usa has managed to make the softist male generation that has ever existed. we all know this is true. lets change our thinking i suppose? but it doesnt seem the thinking is real from our leadership.

by the way, it doesnt seem to be an IF.

20 December Update

Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 19 to 20. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched 19 Shahed-131/136 drones at Ukraine from Chauda and Balaklava, occupied Crimea, and that Ukrainian forces shot down 18 of the drones over Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Kirovohrad oblasts.

Russian forces made a confirmed advance north of Bakhmut and continued positional meeting engagements along the entire line of contact.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Great News for Zelensky and Ukraine: More Help on the Way

Switzerland has announced a significant winter aid package for Ukraine, totaling CHF 11.5 million ($13.3 million), as reported on December 20.

This contribution increases Switzerland's total winter assistance to Ukraine to approximately CHF 26 million ($30 million).

Source

It looks like Ukraine's military will get its winter clothing after all.

cold-weather clothing, other essential supplies, and direct cash payments to war-affected and displaced Ukrainians.

❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Highlights of Russian Military Operation in Ukraine on December 20-21

This three minute video provides some map visuals for those that don't know these towns. As for accurate it is? Looks kinda close from other reports.

China: Russia Prepares for Final Stage of 'Special Operation'

"It can be assumed that this conflict will soon end, and by the end of December at the latest, after Ukraine receives the last aid package, the Russian military will begin preparing for the final stage of the special operation. In any case, we will learn all the results of these decisions by the end of December. Let's see how much longer the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) can hold out,"

Source

According to the article, Russia has lost over twice the number of men as Ukraine, but Ukraine has lost a significant amount of hardware. Since the stats for each side are being reported by the other side, they are always questionable. However, I do not see this conflict ending in the next week.

The only way I could see it ending that soon is a peace treaty which I do not see happening. Russia wants great concessions that Ukraine, rightly so, will not give in to. If Putin should escalate this with nuclear weapons, the conflict turns into WWIII, if it isn't already.

21 December Update

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 20 to 21. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 35 Shahed-131/-136 drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai, occupied Cape Chuada in Crimea, and Kursk Oblast targeting Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Khmelnytskyi, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, and Kirovohrad oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Ukrainian forces shot down 34 Shaheds.

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka and continued positional meeting engagements along the entire frontline.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Bishop2199
Putin's propaganda works in Russia, and China's propaganda works in China, not universally but largely, because they restrict other sources of information contradicting the propaganda. But in the free world, there are so many sources of information that your point the war can't possibly end that soon becomes obvious.

The war will probably last as long as Putin is in power. How long that will be depends. He will win the election coming up soon and have another 6 year term, but whether Russians will be happy enough living under an isolated, wartime economy for another 6 years to not revolt is unknown. According to this video which I posted a few days ago, Putin's regime will fall within 5 years. I wish I could believe that, but I think there are too many variables to predict 5 years into the future.



a reply to: F2d5thCavv2
Shooting down 34 out of 35 drones sounds impressive! Though Russia exaggerates their success rates quite a bit, and I don't know how much Ukraine does that. Russia will say they shot down all Ukraine drones, even when there are videos or photos online of structures damaged by the drones supposedly shot down, and I don't see examples that blatant from Ukraine.

a reply to: Bishop2199

In addition Japan is willing to sell some PATRIOT missiles back to the US for use in Ukraine

www.msn.com...

22 December Update

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed three Su-24 aircraft on December 22 in the southern direction, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian air defenses downed the Russian aircraft in the Kherson direction near Krynky.

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 21 to 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 24 of 28 Russian-launched Shahed-131/136 drones.[20] Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported that Russian drones struck port infrastructure in Mykolaiv Oblast and targeted port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.

Russian forces made confirmed advances northeast and southwest of Bakhmut and southwest of Avdiivka and continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Another Russian warship mistakenly left docked in Crimea has gone Bang , the 'Novocherkassk' was hit by Storm Shadow missiles early this morning.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: dust2023
lets just see what happens. i think ukraine is losing. you think they are winning. time will tell.

You're putting words in my mouth. I didn't say Ukraine is winning lately. I said they already won in Sumy, but that was last year when the Russian military had a lower budget and there was no end in sight to the support Ukraine was getting from its allies.

Recently I made a long post about how the tide might be turning against Ukraine because the Russian military has more than doubled its military budget in 2024 to what it was in 2021 so that's bad news for Ukraine, plus the support from their allies is delayed, like Europe promised to deliver a million artillery shells to Ukraine on a certain schedule, and they are failing to make the promised deliveries.

So that's a double-whammy for Ukraine of more enemy support and less friendly support then they need or expected, and Ukraine is already facing bad shortages of artillery shells, which might be the reason they started losing some ground.

So maybe we agree that 2024 will be a rough year for Ukraine, and it will get even worse if their allies pull back support.

So far, the conflict hasn't caused the loss of any American soldiers unless you count some former soldiers who volunteered for Ukraine's international legion, and that's not many.

Sure it's a bad situation, and both sides already have lost many of thousands of people, and will lose more before it's over, but the US had a role in Ukraine giving up its nukes and per the Budapest memorandum I think should help at least with supplies. Placating Russia is part of the reason we are in this mess, since nobody lifted a finger to help Ukraine when Russia took Crimea. That was so easy, Russia just figured they would take more and it needs to stop somewhere. So while having a war is bad, giving Russia whatever land it wants to take by force seems like a worse idea. Where will it stop once you do that? It obviously didn't stop at Crimea like many thought it would.

At this point there should be no illusions on what Ukraine is capable of achieving and this translates to agreeing with Russia the termination of the war if they don't want to lose more than 25% of the land they have already lost so far and a generation of young men. Same thing happened to Russians in terms of the number of soldiers lost. Strategically the Russians have won long time ago.

a reply to: gortex
That was a huge explosion-Just watched youtuber succomimus video on it-he rekons it may have been a russian cargo ship full of iranian drones-or a shipment of drones from within russia which was sent to crimea.



An expensive week for Vlad-4 sukoi su 24s and this ship destroyed.

Hes made and update vid with photos of the aftermath-that ship is toast!
Looks like it was the Ropucha-class Landing Ship Novocherkassk-a Russian warship rather than a vessel carrying loads of drones from iran.

a reply to: gortex

Good one!

Putin's War Worries: Declassified Intelligence Report Lays Bare Staggering Extent of Russia's Military Losses in Ukraine

The intelligence report suggests that, despite Russia still deploying 1,300 armored vehicles against Ukraine, significant losses have been incurred. Of the 13,600 infantry vehicles, 4,400 have been lost, along with 32% of Russia's armored personnel carriers.

Source

This is in addition to the loss of much of their male workforce which is staggering their economy.