Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

Drones are difficult to bring down with EW unless you have one that is powerful enough and big enough. Small surface to air missiles are a cost effective way to bring down drones.

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Damn. Even cheap FPV drones have thermal these days. That's brutal.

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sorry to hear that

originally posted by: MiddleKingdomer
The noose around Adviivka is getting tighter.

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This is an interesting update on Avdiivka.

Russians entered a small industrial area in the east of Avdiivka, which had been leveled by artillery. Ukraine sources said there was no cover there for the Russian soldiers so it was like a shooting gallery taking out Russians there who didn't have cover in the rubble. What happened after that is reported in two versions, the version reported by Ukrainian sources, and the version reported by Russian sources. This source is biased toward Ukraine, however, he reports both versions. They are completely different.

I heard somewhere that Putin wanted to take Avdiivka by December 14 because he wanted to make an announcement about his candidacy for president in the elections next year and wanted to have that victory under his belt to bolster his support. It doesn't look like Russia will take Avdiivka by tomorrow. In fact this source says Russia was using 40,000 troops to try to take Avdiivka and there have been 13,000 casualties so they only have 27,000 troops left, which may not be enough to do the job.

12 Dec: TIME TO GO HOME. Russians REALIZED THE OFFENSIVE WAS A MISTAKE | War in Ukraine Explained


Apparently Russia is now calling their offensive near Avdiivka "active defense", because "active defense" saves more face than "failed offensive" I suppose?

Since it has already become clear that Russian forces will definitely not be able to take Avdiivka by the end of the year, Russians have already started using the “active defense” framing to recontextualize the lack of any major Russian progress around Avdiivka. Several days ago, some of the most prominent Russian sources started claiming that the Avdiivka offensive was just a decoy and that taking it is not the main Russian goal. And this is not surprising because out of the allocated 40 thousand troops as reserves for the Avdiivka offensive, approximately 13 thousand of them are already dead or wounded. It seems like the Russian command is not confident that the remaining 27 thousand troops will be enough to close the pocket, which is why they are trying to deprioritize this direction, meaning that, so far, the Ukrainian defensive operation is going according to the plan.

On the economic front, Russia seems to be skirting western sanctions on oil, sort of. China and India are buying lots of Russian oil in Yuan and Rupees. Russia should be able to spend the Yuan because China exports a lot of things it needs. However, Russia apparently has vast amounts of Rupees from India piling up that they don't know how to spend because India doesn't export much that Russia needs. So what is Russia going to do with the hoard of Rupees they don't seem to know what to do with?

Russia does not know what to do with $147bn in rupees it has amassed

India has emerged as one of the top buyers of Russian oil after Moscow invaded Ukraine. Historically allies, the two countries are settling a greater share of the trade in national currencies after Russia was cut off from the US dollar-dominated global payments systems. Though it seems like a win-win situation for everybody, there is a problem. Russia does not know how to reap the benefits of this trade...

Every quarter, the trade imbalance is likely to generate the equivalent of $2 billion to $3 billion that Russia can’t use. Over the course of 2022, the amount would have added to an estimated $147 billion in net foreign assets built up abroad, the report added.

So getting around sanctions by selling more oil to China is apparently successful for Russia since they can use China's currency, but I don't see how it's successful selling oil to India for rupees if Russia has no way to use so many of the rupees it's getting.

NATO Ally to Give Ukraine Billion-Dollar Booster

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced on Wednesday that her government would be pledging 7.5 billion Danish kroner, equivalent to around $1.1 billion U.S., to help Ukraine in its continuing war invading Russian forces.

Source

It's nice to see others taking a financial interest in Ukraine's right to exist.

13 December Update

Russian and Ukrainian sources continue to report on the impacts of challenging weather conditions on offensive and reconnaissance operations throughout the front, even as reported freezing and snowy winter conditions in eastern Ukraine offer the prospect of better conditions for maneuver.

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes on the night of December 12 to 13. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched 10 Shahed-131/136 drones from occupied Balaklava, Crimea and launched 10 missiles, likely Iskander-M ballistic or S-300/400 anti-aircraft guided missiles, targeting Kyiv City. Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces downed all of the missiles and drones, but that missile debris injured civilians in Kyiv City.

Pro-Russia hacker group Killnet claimed on December 12 that it conducted an attack on unspecified Ukrainian mobile operators and banks but did not offer any details or evidence of their involvement.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, north of and near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west of Donetsk City, along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in various sectors.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
13 December Update

"Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes on the night of December 12 to 13. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched 10 Shahed-131/136 drones from occupied Balaklava, Crimea and launched 10 missiles, likely Iskander-M ballistic or S-300/400 anti-aircraft guided missiles, targeting Kyiv City. Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces downed all of the missiles and drones, but that missile debris injured civilians in Kyiv City."

I noticed a few days ago Ukraine shot down all the Shahed drones but I think a missile got through, and in this report they shot down everything. It looks like the air defenses are working well, at least in this report. Maybe Ukraine can keep their electric grid going this winter, with less brownouts or rolling blackouts than they had last winter.

originally posted by: MiddleKingdomer
Drones are difficult to bring down with EW unless you have one that is powerful enough and big enough. Small surface to air missiles are a cost effective way to bring down drones.

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i Said E M P. as in electro magnetic pulse machines. They do have them If i remember correctly.

Russians dont quite understand explosive reactive armor or where to put it


Congratulati ons, Russian Army: You’ve Invented A Self-Exploding Truck

originally posted by: yuppa
i Said E M P. as in electro magnetic pulse machines. They do have them If i remember correctly.

If you have a link about that I'd like to read it. US, Russia and China certainly have nuclear EMP capability which detonated high in the atmosphere can affect large regions. That's discussed starting at 1:30 in the following video, then at 11:00 it discusses non-nuclear EMP tech which has a far more limited range measured in hundreds of meters, and even then, things with long wires are more susceptible than things that don't have long wires.

Do Real EMP Weapons Actually Exist, or Are They Only a Thing in Movies?


Because non-nuclear EMP has such limited range, one system developed by the US called CHAMP brings the EMP to the devices it wants to disable in missile form, as discussed in this short, 2 minute video:

Boeing's CHAMP Missile Demo - Directed High Frequency Microwave Disables Electronics (EMP)


Russia has good EW (non-EMP) equipment, destroying it is a high priority target for Ukraine. It worked too well in the start of the war where Russia's own communications were disrupted in sort of a "friendly-fire" incident.

Another topic: Here's some western propaganda saying that even though Ukraine's counter-offensive over the summer failed to meet objectives, Ukraine is still using aid from the west to defend themselves successfully, allegedly causing 13,000 casualties of Russian forces attacking Ukraine's Avdiivka.

Drone footage exposes extensive damage on Ukraine’s eastern battlefield

Apparently the US republicans blocking aid to Ukraine until border security is addressed is resulting in Ukraine running out of money to pay military personnel in January, so Zelensky has been schmoozing with both parties to try to resolve that issue, maybe unsuccessfully.

originally posted by: Kenzo

Russians dont quite understand explosive reactive armor or where to put it

Congratulati ons, Russian Army: You’ve Invented A Self-Exploding Truck

I saw that earlier. Not too smart, right?

When Putin announced the mobilization and up to a million Russians fled the country to avoid it, reports were saying those were Russia's brightest leaving the country. Maybe after the brightest leave, what's left is the not-so-bright?

Putin's annual press conference was hijacked and an AI version of Putin began questioning him on body doubles. Putin looks visibly shocked by the sudden detour from the usual carefully scripted Q&A session

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Brighest allready left yes, or end up dead.

14 December Update

Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against port infrastructure in southern Ukraine on the night of December 13-14. Ukraine's Air Force reported on December 14 that Russian forces launched 42 Shahed-136/131s mainly at port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast from the directions of Balaklava and Chauda, occupied Crimea, as well as Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: Arbitrageur

Brighest allready left yes, or end up dead.

The proof of that is when somebody walks into a Ukrainian meeting room, drops 3 armed grenades on the floor and nobody moves.
Unreal.
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a reply to: Vermilion

Seems like that was suicide event , the one who had the grenades was killed and many others injured .

Putin faces growing revolt as Kremlin's soldiers threaten to 'march on Russia'

Russian soldiers are growing discontent and are planning to “march on Russia”, as revealed in a telephone call released by Ukrainian intelligence.

The call, released by Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate, takes place between two Moscow soldiers, with one in a military hospital and the other still on the front lines.

Source

Another revolt from within?

We shall see.

originally posted by: Bishop2199
Another revolt from within?

We shall see.

Only time will tell, so I agree, we shall see.

This video predicts that something like that will happen in the next five years.

I neither endorse nor reject the prediction, it's certainly possible. The video gives lots of interesting reasons for the prediction, but it seems to be mostly based on looking at a number of factors that have contributed to regimes falling historically, and comparing those to how the same factors stand in Russia today.

The average Russians used to have an unspoken, unwriten contract with the leadership (Putin and oligarchs), that just leave us alone and go ahead and steal some percentage from us and we will leave you alone too. Putin broke that contract with the mobilization, not leaving them alone but sending lots of men to die or be crippled.

According to the video, there used to be lots of Russian men who were disgruntled partly because the oligarchs got more than their fair share of the women because of their vast wealth, so quite a few average men ended up frustrated, but they couldn't do much about it because they weren't in any position to revolt. But now look at what's changed. Now Putin has been recruiting and training hundreds of thousands of those disgruntled men in how to cooperate with their leaders in the military, and use weapons to kill people. So now he's got a much larger number of young men trained to use weapons, and will have even more next year when the size of the military increases to what, 2.2 million? Now all those men who wouldn't have known what to do about their dissatisfaction before, know how to use weapons, so that's one factor that may make a revolution more likely, lots more men have or will have military training (maybe not a lot of training, but how much gun training is needed to use guns for a revolution?).

The Coming Fall of Russia


On a related note, a US intelligence report came out saying 87% of Putin's military force when the war started has been killed or wounded. Putin has replaced most if not all of that over 300,000, so the military force hasn't declined that much, but the replacement troops have less training and less experience than the 87% that were lost. The regular Russian army was never as good at fighting as say the Wagner PMC according to Ukrainians, but they may be even worse now due to the even higher levels of inexperience in the ranks.

Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, US Intelligence says

Russia has lost a staggering 87 percent of the total number of active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, a source familiar with a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress told CNN.

originally posted by: MiddleKingdomer
Ukraine and Russia built tens of thousands of tanks in the 1970s and 1980s. Neither side has any shortage of it. By comparison, the US only has a few thousand tanks, a small fraction of what Ukraine and Russia have.

Are you talking about before, or after Russia lost 2/3 of its 3500 pre-invasion tanks, according to the above intelligence report?

2,200 of 3,500 tanks have been lost, according to the assessment

What's 3500 minus 2200? 1300? 2200 lost sounds about right, but I'm not sure where the 3500 came from, is that just the tanks used inside Ukraine? I know Russia has more tanks than that, but many of them have been in storage so long and not in very good storage conditions that they are not usable without major refurbishing.

The US has about 8000 Abrams, but only 4400 in the army and 400 in the marines are available. Some of the others that have been degraded and in storage are being refurbished and sold to countries like Poland.