Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Freeborn

Know exactly where you are coming from FB on the numbers game and how it's deployed. Think from memory they had something like 150 KA-52 gunships, looks from reports they've lost aRound a third so far. No idea if they are trickling them through from their plants, Putin wis recently as t the Mil plant. So 100 at the moment to defend a very long front line, no idea if that will be enough. Hopefully Cav will have an idea if this group can stop the hundreds of tanks Ukraine is supposedly keeping in reserve for the proper offensive once the probing has been done

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Regarding the gunships, the real drivers are--

a) availability of crews, maintainers, and spare parts, and ammunition;

and,

b) density and effectiveness of Ukrainian low-altitude air defense armament.

I've no detailed information on any of that, so I can't say if that number of gunships will suffice for Russia.

I recall, vaguely, during the U.S. 2003 invasion of Iraq, an attack helicopter unit of the U.S. Army "charged" a Republican Guard unit and took a fair amount of damage from AA fire. Air defenses have to be suppressed or the helos will take stiff losses.

Cheers

30 June Update

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline on June 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) and Berdyansk (eastern Zaporizhia Oblast) directions. . . . Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces are confidently advancing on Bakhmut’s flanks and that Russian forces have transferred a large number of troops to the area.

More at URL above, including discussion about the Wagner mercenaries.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Many thanks the info help and advice Cavb 👍👍👍👍👍👍

Two videos. They are an multi part interview with a member of the Russian Imperial Legion/Movement. They are one of those neo nazi groups that don't exist in the Russia. Fascinating to hear this perspective from the Russian side. One of the most telling comments is that he, and his movement, see all the territories "lost" when the USSR collapsed as Russian and they are all just separatists. Ukrainians, Kazaks, Tajiks, Poles, all of them, just Russians with an identity crisis. He covers a lot of ground with this interview and the interviewer just lets the guy tell his story. There is a lot of hate in these videos but it's something that you can point to when someone says, there is no neo nazis in the Russia or fighting for the Russia. The guy is intelligent and well spoken and I am always happy to hear perspectives from the Russian side. To close your ears to these things is the epitome of ignorance. And yes, the interviewer could have challenged him harder on some of the points but either way, it's a very good interview.

Oh and just a little update from Mediazona/BBC.

26,801

The absolute bottom number of dead on the Russian side

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

a) availability of crews, maintainers, and spare parts, and ammunition;

And the Ukrainians have been doing a good job targeting those. A $50 million attack chopper is a very expensive paperweight if you have no one to fly it or no one to fix it.

a reply to: GAOTU789

PM for GAOTU789.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Replied.

originally posted by: GAOTU789
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Replied.

Further comments made. Thank you for your reply!

Cheers

a reply to: GAOTU789

First video watched, thanks GAOTU for posting

Political reverberations apparently still going on in Russia.

Girkin called out Putin as a "spineless wood louse" for not going Neanderthal on Prigo. More:

"Putin demonstrates his total powerlessness and shows that it's okay to act that way. Try, guys, try again. And if you fail, nothing will happen to you," he said.

He would not have said that pre-Prigo-march.

Cheers

The failed Wagner coup shows Vladimir Putin’s regime remains stubbornly strong.........

"Much of the western analysis of the events in Russia last weekend has concluded that Vladimir Putin displayed his weakness by allowing Yevgeny Prigozhin and other Wagner group commanders to depart peacefully for Belarus, and the rank-and-file to join the Russian army or retire to their homes. Of course, if Putin had in fact crushed the revolt by force and executed its leaders, commentators would have used this as more evidence of his brutality and ruthlessness, and perhaps also of the innate savagery and violence of the Russian national tradition.

These conclusions are coloured by an understandable dislike of the Russian leader, and they do not constitute sober and objective analysis. In fact, though Putin was obviously responsible for creating the background to this mess, we should consider the possibility that at the weekend he handled things well. In his address to the nation on Saturday morning, he displayed determination and resolve. Putin made clear that he had no intention of surrendering to Prigozhin’s demands, and that if he and the other Wagner leaders continued their revolt, they would be charged with treason (and, by implication, probably executed).

Since it also quickly became apparent that there was going to be no mutiny in support of Wagner within the regular army, Prigozhin was faced with the choice of an attack on Moscow that would almost certainly have led to the slaughter of his men and his own death, or a surrender on terms. In these circumstances, Putin had nothing to gain by seeking violent revenge, which would have killed large numbers of Russians and badly undermined the Russian war in Ukraine. He had everything to gain by showing magnanimity. He had, after all, won" www.theguardian.com...

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Of course, he's such a nice guy!

A living Saint, no less.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Just the Guardian's view, not mine

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

"If the Ukrainians break through, then Putin may be forced to resign, but he may also escalate towards nuclear war. Perhaps the most dangerous effect of the blow to Putin’s prestige from the Wagner revolt may be that even without a Ukrainian victory, he will feel compelled to restore his image of strength by retaliating directly against the west for its support of Ukraine. In that case, the dangers to Putin’s regime will be eclipsed by those to humanity in general."

Also the Grauniad's view, from your source.

Scary stuff, mate.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2 it is scary stuff mate yet to be expected. Russian' have their sphere of influence, they have their near abroad, they have their sense of pride, yet there are PTB on this world that desire their complete destruction. From a Russian perspective the pretence of peace and an end to the zcold War has proved to be a lie only playable by a con artist trickster youtu.be...

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

"If the Ukrainians break through, then Putin may be forced to resign, but he may also escalate towards nuclear war. Perhaps the most dangerous effect of the blow to Putin’s prestige from the Wagner revolt may be that even without a Ukrainian victory, he will feel compelled to restore his image of strength by retaliating directly against the west for its support of Ukraine. In that case, the dangers to Putin’s regime will be eclipsed by those to humanity in general."

Also the Grauniad's view, from your source.

Scary stuff, mate.

Seems Putin's top military command would likely whack him if he called for a nuclear attack rather than risk the fallout from such a move.

1 July Update

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the frontline on July 1. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults in the Bakhmut area and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.

Russian officials and sources celebrated claims that Russian forces defeated small-scale Ukrainian landings in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on July 1 as if they had won a major victory. Kherson Oblast Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo claimed that servicemen of the Russian “Dnepr” Group of Forces cleared areas near the Antonivsky Bridge on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River after special forces elements conducted a surprise landing on Ukrainian forces’ rear positions overnight.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Anyone notice the silence of certain members since the Wagner mutiny, and the lack of new pro-Russian threads about the war by one in particular? Funny that.

Evidently Prigozhin was running the big troll farm in St. Petersberg, and it has been shut down since the mutiny.

Coincidence?