Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: alphabetaone

Ya know man, I'm still very much on the fence about a declaration of war from Russia. It serves them well in the short term but like you say, long term, the damage from that statement would be generational within Russia. How many allies and neutrals would decide against backing Russia? How much further would sanctions go? Would non NATO aligned countries become involved? Would Belarus enter the war? Would the Russians expand things and go after other former vassal states like Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan? I mean some of the Kremlin mouth pieces have threatened Kazakhstan on tv for not being a better friend to Russia in its time of need...

thediplomat.com...

Way more questions than answers if Russia goes full war.

a reply to: GAOTU789

Russia's entire southern border is subject to rearrangement on short notice. Lots of emotions and ambitions bubbling in the countries on Russia's southern rim. And if the situation in Ukraine becomes one of an unambiguous Russian defeat, watch out.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Ya, that's something I have been watching closely. The whole Caucasus region of Russia is one good incident away from going into full blown civil war. Add the independent nations of the region into it, all of whom have had land annexed by Russia over the last 30 years. They may feel that they would like back their land, much the same as Russia wanted/wants Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk back. Add to that the southern border in the Far East and well, who knows what China may do if it comes to pass that the Russians were defeated and routed out of Ukraine. When opportunity knocks, you know the rest.

"Snake Island" appears to have become a trap for the Russian personnel there.

Russian landing ships attempting to resupply (?) got taken out by Ukrainian drones.

With their missile ships out of action, it seems there is little effective air defense over the island.

In micro scale, like the Japanese troops of World War II who were cut off on many islands once their navy and air force retreated.

That island has become a costly venture for Moscow.

Cheers

a reply to: Xcathdra

see the thing that really pisses me off , they spend trillions on this # , when if they just took all that money and spent it wisely in education , and the sciences then we wouldnt need to have silly wars
all that money Russia just spunked in Ukraine , what an epic waste resources and human life.
Imagine what that money could have done for social programs in Russia for the poor and needy
its #in common sense

the whole world is mad

we'd rather kill each other than use our resources together and fix this #e hole we made for ourselves
we've armed ourselves so much that we are just so paranoid of each other
all the defense curtains and missiles , it should all be banned there is absolutely no need for us to all fight like this
its #in criminal absolutely criminal , no war is really just when you think about it morally
all of that money spent at home instead of bombs to kill forgeiners could save millions of lives

we as a species should cancel war , we cancel everything else , how come no one is cancelling politicians for going to war ?
we are a #in joke we are meant to be the most intelligent life in the universe by our own description
how egotistical we are , we cant even get along on our own planet , what an absolute failure.
Im surprised god hasnt just wiped us out by now if god exists, maybe a big meteor is in the post
and we arent prepared for it , we were too busy fighting among ourselves to realise we are fragile
yet we insist on increasing our vulnerability by taking our eye off the proverbial ball.

a reply to: GAOTU789

Putin can't risk a declaration of war on Ukraine hes having enough problems already. In six Russian cities, Molotov cocktails have been thrown at the buildings of military replacement offices in the last two months. So imagine what will happen if he institutes a draft he's having major problems internally there are attacks on infrastructure and I'm not convinced its all Ukrainians

a reply to: GAOTU789

All valid questions.

I believe firmly that non-NATO states would have a propensity toward cleaning up their internal acts and being more drawn into the NATO bubble.

Also, we do have to always remember "Lie Zero" by Putin "Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine", and using that as a backdrop upon which to gauge everything else coming out of Kremlin mouthpieces.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Ukraine announced that it sunk another russian ship near Snake Island today, this time an unspecified serna-class landing ship.

No idea if true yet.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Ukraine announced that it sunk another russian ship near Snake Island today, this time an unspecified serna-class landing ship.

No idea if true yet.

There's a video doing the rounds of two fighters bombing the crap out of snake island. Reported as the Ukrainian air force. Can anyone confirm?.
ps, Sorry about the music.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
For some in Germany, the war in Ukraine is only about Germany. Cry me a river.

Opinion: Germany, scapegoat of the Ukraine war
Germany is being criticized by Ukraine and other countries in Europe, but that is unfair says DW's Marco Müller

Someone needs to not so gently inform Marco that is far better to be seen as a scapegoat than have your country invaded with heavy destruction to cities and millions of refugees. The tone-deafness among many in Germany is profound.

Cheers

Ever since the cold war Germany has had this idea that their policies worked, contributing to the collapse of the USSR so there was no need to maintain the small things, especially when other countries are picking up the tab for the larger ticket items, like a German national defense. Angela Merkel continued the destruction of the German military during her 16 years as Chancellor. She is the first Chancellor that was born and raised in east Germany and she speaks fluent Russian because of it.

Olaf Scholz, the current chancellor, has a lot of work to do, first and foremost is changing the opinions of the German people. Scholz upended a lot when he abandoned Germany's pacifist foreign policy and started exporting lethal arms to Ukraine. He is actually increasing the Military budget and started to modernize / buy equipment (Germany is now buying the F-35).

Germany is so scared of its past that they are reluctant to do anything that even remotely reminds people of Nazi Germany. Germany just banned the Ukrainian flag during VE day ceremonies (and pissing Ukraine off in the process).

At least the current Chancellor understands history but also knows Germany must make changes. If Merel were still in office they would not be doing any of what Germany is currently doing and would discuss and debate it, even after Russia invades and conquers Germany.

a reply to: Soloprotocol

I hadn't heard of a strike however it looks legit if that is snake island. Looks like 2 flankers came in low level with high drag bombs. The other thing I noticed is they used the lighthouse on the right side to align their bombing run they fly right over it. So it looks real if that is snake island then id say yes Ukraine hit it.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Ukraine announced that it sunk another russian ship near Snake Island today, this time an unspecified serna-class landing ship.

No idea if true yet.

Yeah it was a Russian LCU (landing craft utility ship). It was in the process of dropping of sams.



Ukraine Situation Report: TB2s Strike Russian SAM-Carrying Landing Craft At Snake Island

Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 drones struck Russian-occupied Snake Island in the Black Sea again Saturday, claiming a kill on a Russian landing craft and a building on the remote Western Black Sea outpost.

Footage from the drone shows a missile hit on a Project 11770 Serna class landing craft at Snake Island’s boat ramp. The landing craft-utility (LCU) boat can be seen with a Tor surface-to-air missile system onboard, and likely a Russian Raptor-class patrol boat idling off the stern.

Video and later satellite imagery show the landing craft burning at the shoreline after the missile attack. It isn’t the first time TB2s have visited the island made famous in the war’s opening days with the Ukrainian garrison’s defiant refusal to surrender to the Russian Navy.

click link for article, photos and video.

Situation update -

The Latest

The ground war for Eastern Ukraine may hinge on a pivotal battle near the city of Izyum as an ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive has reportedly made significant progress in the area.

Izyum became a key Russian objective after withdrawing from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy frontlines in late March. Russian forces have reportedly occupied the city on the Siverskyi Donets River since April 1, and it represents the northern flank of the fight for the Donbas as the north side of an attempted encirclement toward Kramatorsk.

But along with gains near Kharkiv close to the Russian border in May, Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken territory to now threaten the Izyum salient. Forces near Kharkiv may be headed for the rail line connecting Izyum to the Russian border, while the fierce fighting near the city itself is a likely attempt to encircle the Russian troops fighting for the city.

Russian propaganda -

Reports from Russian media claimed Ukrainian defenders emerged from the steel mill with a white flag to surrender on Saturday, but the Azov Regiment refuted these claims, stating the white flags have been the standard operating procedure for four separate humanitarian evacuation operations thus far.

Russia does not have air supremacy -

The Ukrainian Air Force continues to operate both over the Donbas frontline with attack aircraft and with fighters over friendly territory.

Video from the frontline showed a Ukrainian Su-25 at high speed and barely treetop altitude packing external fuel tanks and what appear to be 122mm S-13 rocket pods.

twitter.com... twitter.com...

Far from the frontline, though, a photo posted to Telegram on Saturday reportedly shows a Ukrainian MiG-29 over Odesa Oblast fully loaded with a centerline fuel tank, four R-73 “Archer” infrared missiles and a pair of R-27R “Alamo” semi-active radar-guided missiles.

a reply to: Xcathdra

X, the bit about that opinion piece that astounded me is that the guy who wrote it (Marco Müller) is an editor for Deutsche Welle. Bear in mind DW is the "public face" of Germany in the same way the BBC is for the UK.

So, we have a DW editor moaning about Germany being the "whipping boy" (Prügelknabe in the original version of the article) and complaining how "irritating" it is that other countries are looking at Germany's policies with astonishment and criticism. One wonders how "irritating" Ukrainians find Russian artillery and aerial bombardment of their homes to be ...

(comment deleted, my error). The German version of the opinion piece is here.

Apparently, this was written back in mid-April and only got translated into English yesterday or so.

Cheers

7 May update

Key Takeaways

* Russian forces destroyed several bridges to slow Ukrainian forces and may be conducting a limited withdrawal northeast of Kharkiv city in the face of the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.

* Ukrainian forces are making significant progress around Kharkiv and will likely advance to the Russian border in the coming days.

* Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian advances toward Barvinvoke and Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to drive directly southeast toward Slovyansk. ISW cannot confirm claims of a Ukrainian counteroffensive toward Izyum at this time.

* Russian forces claimed to capture Popasna on May 7 but remain largely stalled in eastern Ukraine.

* The Ukrainian government confirmed the last remaining civilians trapped in the Azovstal plant evacuated on May 7, though the remaining Ukrainian defenders appear unlikely to surrender. ISW will likely be unable to report any discrete changes in control of terrain until Russian forces capture the plant as a whole due to the poor information environment in Mariupol.

* By all indications, Russian forces will announce the creation of a Kherson People’s Republic or possibly forcibly annex Kherson Oblast in the coming weeks to cement its occupation administration and attempt to permanently strip these territories from Ukraine.

* Russian forces continued to target Odesa with cruise missile strikes and conduct false-flag attacks in Transnistria over the past several days.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Funny how often ISW confirms the things we had recently speculated on here.

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Funny how often ISW confirms the things we had recently speculated on here.

Occasional threads on ATS have proven good at "predicting" the news. There is a lot of good information in this thread and the one that preceded it.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Funny how often ISW confirms the things we had recently speculated on here.

Occasional threads on ATS have proven good at "predicting" the news. There is a lot of good information in this thread and the one that preceded it.

Cheers

Agreed, have witnessed it many times on a wide variety of issues here for quite a long time.

On russia's invasion of Ukraine, the regulars in this thread have been living up to and sometimes even exceeding those high ATS 'open analysis' expectations from the start.


Beers for everyone!

* - Chernihivska Oblast, Kirovohradska Oblast, Cherkaska Oblast(12:02). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Vinnytska Oblast(11:59). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kyiv Oblast(11:52). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Zhytomyr, Zhytomyrska Oblast(11:50). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kyiv(11:50). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Ukraine: Ukrainian forces foiled and destroyed a Russian bridging attempt in Luhansk oblast. Damaging/capturing three PP-2005 floating bridges, IMR-2 combat engineering vehicle, a PTS-3 tracked amphibious transport vehicle, TMM-3 bridge layer and a BMP-2M

* - Heavy clashes near Drobysheve

* - Donetsk Oblast(11:37). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kramatorsk(11:33). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Another TB2 UCAV video posted by the Ukrainian Navy that appears to show strikes on two more Russian Raptor fast-attack craft

* - Bakhmut(11:27). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Ukrainian military have withdraw from Popasna - head of regional administration

* - Video: Ukrainian military work tonight at Zmiiny island

* - Russian army shelled Lysychansk, 1 wounded. Sieverodonetsk, Shypylivka and Pryvilla where 2 killed, 7 wounded

* - Russian troops have captured northern parts of Shandryholove village in Donetsk region

* - Ukrainian military destroyed 2 Russian missiles launched into Odesa from Black Sea overnight

* - Air defense missile launch over Belgorod

* - Two Ukrainian Su-27 striking Russian facilities on the famous Snake Island in the Black Sea, in remarkable footage filmed by a TB-2 drone. As we can observe, there is serious damage

* - Russian aviation bombed a school, hosting a shelter for civilians, in Bilohorivka in Luhansk region

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
* - Stopfake - Site dedicated to countering Russian propaganda about Ukraine

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps