Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

Russia Spending an Estimated $900 Million a Day on Ukraine War

As Russia continues its invasion in Ukraine, the heavy toll taken by Russia's economy could be felt for years to come.

Russia's invasion is now in its third month, and sustaining the military offensive requires approximately $900 million a day, Sean Spoonts, editor-in-chief of SOFREP, a media outlet focused on military news, told Newsweek.

Several factors play into that heavy price, according to SOFREP's estimate. That includes paying the Russian soldiers who are fighting in Ukraine; providing them with munitions, bullets and rockets; and the cost to repair lost or damaged military equipment. Russia also must pay for the thousands of critical weapons and cruise missiles that have been fired during the war, which run about $1.5 million apiece, according to Spoonts.

click link for article

It is estimated Russia has lost about 10 to 15 billion in equipment (Tanks, planes, helicopters, etc).



* - Ukraine Says It Destroyed Another Ship As Rumors Swirl Of Russian Warship On Fire

Ukrainian officials claim that the Russian Navy’s Admiral Grigorovich class frigate Admiral Makarov, one of the most advanced in its fleet, has become the latest victim of Ukrainian anti-ship missiles while operating in the Black Sea. The Ukrainian claims, so far unconfirmed, suggest the warship was sailing near Snake Island, around 20 miles off the Ukrainian coast, when it came under attack and burst into flames. The reported location is close to where a pair of Russian Navy Raptor class patrol boats were claimed destroyed by Ukrainian drones earlier this week.

Citing Russian sources, Anton Gerashchenko, an official advisor to the Ukrainian president, reported on his Telegram page that the Admiral Makarov had been hit by a Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missile. This is the same weapon that Ukrainian military and U.S. defense officials said sunk the Russian Navy’s Project 1164 Slava class cruiser Moskva, the highest-profile naval casualty of the war so far, on April 14. Moscow said the vessel sank after a fire.

The latest Ukrainian claims suggest that the Admiral Makarov is now on fire. While unverified imagery has begun to appear on social media, purporting to show the frigate ablaze, there are some serious questions about its authenticity:

click link for article

6 May update

Key Takeaways

* The Ukrainian counteroffensive along a broad arc north and east of Kharkiv city took further terrain and will likely push Russian forces out of tube artillery range of the city in the coming days.

* Russian forces did not make any progress on the Izyum axis.

* Russian forces likely secured small gains on the outskirts of Severodonetsk in the last 24 hours but are unlikely to successfully surround the town.

* Russian forces continued assaults on the Azovstal plant, but ISW cannot confirm any specific advances.

* There were no significant changes on the southern axis in the last 24 hours and Russian forces continued to reinforce their forward positions.

* ISW cannot confirm reports of a Ukrainian anti-ship missile strike on the Admiral Makarov at this time.

More at URL above.

Cheers

lol de orbit the planet.... this is the pinnacle of one of your Alies.

a reply to: MConnalley


And yet that's the most 'moderate', 'reasonable', and 'intelligent' russian teevee clip I've seen in months.

Complete lunatics.

Not to mention that losing the south, deprives Ukraine of access to the Black Sea (and the rest of the world through it). a reply to: JinMI

originally posted by: SgtEsquire
Not to mention that losing the south, deprives Ukraine of access to the Black Sea (and the rest of the world through it). a reply to: JinMI

russia doesn't appear to have the ability to take Odessa anymore, and may have a hard time holding onto Kherson soon.

Putin stated he will not be declaring war on Ukraine on May 9th so no troop call up. However there are reports that conscripts are being contacted to very all their info is still correct "just in case". Then again he said he had no intentions of invading Ukraine, just before he invaded Ukraine. Kazakhstan told Putin no when Putin requested "peace keepers" and won't be sending any troops to Ukraine, regardless of role. Lukashenko and his comments on nukes seems weird considering he ended Belarus position on nukes so Russia could deploy them to Belarus.

So far no nation belonging to the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization / Warsaw pact lite) has agreed to send troops to Ukraine.

S. Ossetia pulled their troops from Ukraine
Abkhazia refused to send troops and also refused legislation to ask to join Russia.
Chechnya - There seems to be somewhat of a power struggle between Kadyrov and Putin with regards to Ukraine. Kadyrov troops are apparently taking heavy losses yet that doesnt seem to concern Kadyrov.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Russian T90M Tank.

Moment £4m next-generation Russian super-tank with reinforced steel and special automatic defence system is blown up by Ukrainian army just days after making its battlefield debut

www.dailymail.co.uk...

* - Poltavska Oblast(12:39). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Kharkiv, Kharkivska Oblast(12:27). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Another video of TB2 UCAV strikes on Snake Island, including what looks like a Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft

* - Forpost UAV was shot down over Odesa region this morning

* - Multiple missile strikes reported in Odesa region

* - Ukrainian military destroyed Russian base at Ivano-Kepyne village of Mykolaiv region

* - Russian troops shot down Ukrainian loitering munition at Kharkiv frontline

* - For the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine, UNSC has unanimously (ie, with Russia) expressed itself in a presidential statement, offering "strong support" for @antonioguterres efforts to find a peaceful solution to the war

* - 2 missile strikes in Odesa district of Odesa region

* - To unblock the talks, Russia must withdraw troops to the position before February 24th - Zelensky

* - An extensive excavation of the bombed Mariupol drama theater is underway, new satellite images from Maxar Technologies show. The images, taken on May 6, show a crane and trucks at the site

* - Smoke visible from Schebekyne in Belgorod region over border areas of Kharkiv region

* - Shelling in Lyman today

* - On Sunday, @POTUS will participate in a G7 virtual leaders meeting chaired by @OlafScholz to discuss the latest UkraineRussiaWar developments and @ZelenskyyUa will join the call, @PressSec tells reporters on Air Force One[

* - During counteroffensive, the Defense Forces of Ukraine regained control over the settlements of Oleksandrivka, Fedorivka, Ukrainka, Shestakove, Peremoha and part of the village of Cherkaski Tyshky in the Kharkiv region - the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

* - Another prisoners swap today: 41 people returned to Ukraine. Among released 28 military and 13 civilians

* - This event is known propaganda, displayed for awareness
Russia has come to the Kherson region forever and there will be no return to the past, - said Secretary of the United Russia General Council Andrei Turchak

* - Russian troops shelled Kamianske village in Zaporizhzhia region

* - Damage after shelling near Valkovskyi village in Belgorod region

* - Reconnaissance of allies over Black Sea: US Navy P8 Poseidon AE681B; Turkish Navy ATR C-72-600TMPA MARTI07; RAF RC-135W Rivet Joint RRR7236; USAF RQ4 Global Hawk FORTE11 (This is in relation to the Russian vessel that was hit)

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
* - Stopfake - Site dedicated to countering Russian propaganda about Ukraine

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

* - 1 killed, 6 wounded as result of Russian ATGM strike at evacuation vehicle at Azovstal

* - Security Service of Ukraine detained 11 Russian snipers in Kharkiv region (This one makes no sense to me)

* - RAF Rivet Joint operation off Crimea and south Russia

* - Clashes near Yasinuvata

* - Ukraine: Video that shows the destruction of a Russian Tor anti-aircraft system by a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB-2 drone on Zmiyinyy island (Snake island).

* - Russian drone shot down over Odesa region

* - This event is known propaganda, displayed for awareness
The Kremlin: Poland's statements are hostile and may pose a threat to Ukraine

* - Heavy clashes continue in Popasna, tanks, artillery, MLRS and planes used

* - Russian artillery and aviation shelling Huliaipole and Orikhiv today

* - Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia visiting Kyiv

* - Big explosion reported in Mykolaiv region

* - Sumska Oblast(12:47). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

As a reminder

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

Resources - Where most of the updates come from.
* - Flightradar24 - tracks flights worldwide
* - Live Ukraine control map 1 - updates on the ground
* - Ukraine Control Map 2
* - Ship radar
* - Military vessel tracker
* - Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
* - Stopfake - Site dedicated to countering Russian propaganda about Ukraine

Youtube resources -
* - Speak the Truth
* - War in Ukraine
* - Artur Rehi - Estonain soldier
* - Daily Report

Social media resources -
* - Twitter - Jomini of the West - Battlefield Maps

a reply to: alldaylong

lol I saw that earlier.. I guess all that is left is for Russia to deploy the T-14 Armata so that can get blown up. I guess the next area is Russian aviation and sending their top of the line aircraft in.

Did you see the requirements Zelenskyy laid down for peace talks? Russia has to withdraw there forces back to their positions before Feb 24th. I dont see Russia doing that.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Security Service of Ukraine detained 11 Russian snipers in Kharkiv region (This one makes no sense to me)

My guess is that the snipers were fifth-columnists and thus Ukrainian security is involved. One thing I read mentioned that the capture of these people enabled Ukraine to roll up collaborationist networks.

Cheers

a reply to: Xcathdra

- Russia is lying to their people by claiming relatives have died in training exercises.

Not only is this done to help conceal causality numbers, but it also means Russia doesn't have to pay full benefits to the family since the deceased didn't die in combat.

They did the same thing in 2014 when hospitals near the Ukrainian border started filling up with Russian soldiers.

Canadian officials did not specify what vehicles would be sent, but did confirm that the equipment will not be drawn from the Canadian Armed Forces inventory.

These eight new armored vehicles constitute the biggest shipment of heavy equipment from Canada to Ukraine since the invasion began and shows that NATO forces are becoming increasingly willing to provide heavy equipment and weaponry to Ukraine despite Russia’s continued threats.

Story

Notable, the small number of vehicles aren't coming from the Canadian armed forces current inventory. So, they are probably intended as test beds for the Ukrainians to give feedback to the manufacture. Moreover, the next potential step is mass producing the vehicle for the Ukrainian military.

Also, training the future trainers on the maintenance and operating the vehicles is on the cards. Although they came from the Australian Defence Force's inventory, the same process might occur with the Bushmaster vehicles. Military equipment currently in production is the source of the Ukraine's future requests for the international assistance.

For some in Germany, the war in Ukraine is only about Germany. Cry me a river.

Opinion: Germany, scapegoat of the Ukraine war
Germany is being criticized by Ukraine and other countries in Europe, but that is unfair says DW's Marco Müller

Someone needs to not so gently inform Marco that is far better to be seen as a scapegoat than have your country invaded with heavy destruction to cities and millions of refugees. The tone-deafness among many in Germany is profound.

Cheers

Apparently, the Ukrainians are 3D printing "tails" for old Soviet-era RKG-3 grenades and dropping them from drones on Russian personnel and vehicles.

That was the first form of aerial bombardment in World War One; pilots in observation aircraft hand-dropped grenades onto enemy targets.

Cheers

a reply to: JinMI

Kharkiv is the 2nd largest city in Ukraine and a major industrial center. Taking Kharkiv would allow the Russians the ability to really move, theoretically, their pincer movement to cut off access to Eastern Ukraine and encircle the Ukrainian forces inside the pocket that is the AO for a lot of manpower fighting the advance from the East.

Kharkiv would also give the Russians a huge improvement in their ability move materiel and men as it is a major transportation hub with major road and rail infrastructure. It's a stones throw from Belgorod as well, meaning that the Russians would have secured a major supply line into the North of Ukraine by taking Kharkiv

IMO, from watching what has been happening throughout this war, if or once the Ukrainians can secure the Kharkiv region and push the Russians back across the Donets River, their focus will switch to Kherson and start to push East from their using holding actions to keep the Russians pinned in the far east of Ukraine to keep them from reinforcing any troops along the Black Sea coast.

Also, now that 2 of the major ships involved in the daily missile attacks and provided the majority of air cover in the Southern AO have been sunk, I think we will start to see more movement in the South. Amassing large troop concentrations in range of cruise missiles from the sea wouldn't be prudent planning. Now, some of that threat is gone, making a move much more likely. Again, just my opinion of course.

Mariupol is a lost cause. Taking it back would be a huge symbolic victory for Ukraine but they don't have to focus on it at this time. Having that propaganda of the "brave men fighting to the last in Avozstal" is way more important than the city itself right now, imo. They have a open port in Odesa and supplying anything into or through Mariupol would be near impossible as it is on the Azov Sea and access to that is pretty much Russian only at this point.

ETA: All that changes if Russia declares war as their ability to increase numbers in manpower and materiel grows considerably.

a reply to: GAOTU789

I wonder what the ratio of missile strikes is, in terms of launched from a ship vice a land-based surface-to-surface missile.

Some of Russia's missile targets remind me of the Germans lobbing V1s at the UK just to damage and terrorize.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

I would love to know that as well. I know that there are elements of both the US and British militaries that have the ability to track missile launches anywhere in the world whether sea or land based. So I'm sure that that info is known in certain circles but public knowledge, well, keep your cards close to your chest and all that.

As for the terror aspect, that's pretty standard Russian doctrine. IMO, you're right, it is very much like the V1 attacks.

originally posted by: GAOTU789
IMO, you're right, it is very much like the V1 attacks.

It could be. My gut tells me though, that because Russia's land ops are so pathetically weak, that they are just randomizing targets at this point to see what sticks.

As far as declaring war, i don't see it happening. They know that a war declaration is endgame for them and what they really need to do now is to begin repairing their world view status, even if that means being disingenuous by appearing to be victims. They simply cannot sustain a life with a world that won't work with them.