Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 2

a reply to: Annee

Oh yeah! putins a great negotiator.

Putin:hey! i want your land or else!

Ukraine: yessuh mastah!! do ya want crimea,and donbas to mastuh?

Putin:i agree. here sign this treaty.


See? thats how a putin negotiation normally goes.(in putins mind)

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

The sequence of Ukrainian attacks is logical.

They cleared the threat to Kyiv, clearly priority one.

Now they're clearing the threat to Kharkiv, a major city, and geography-wise, one step away from Kyiv.

I expect them to continue this pattern to the south.

If -- big if -- they can reach the land bridge to Crimea beyond Kherson, and push to the coast vicinity Mariupol, they'll split the Russian occupation into two regions, the most vulnerable of which will be that with the Azov Sea to their backs. Those Russians will have to either hold or attempt a risky naval evacuation with Ukrainian drones taking potshots at their ships.

They may, alternatively, also opt to clear Russian troops out of the occupied areas between Kharkiv and Luhansk.

There has to be a lot of consternation among the Russian commanders in Ukraine now.

Cheers

a reply to: WeDemBoyz

The comment about the Russian BTG's being decimated is being reported by many people now. The consensus is Russian forces in the area in question are depleted to the point of being combat ineffective. The amount of Russian troops is not even to hold the areas.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


Agreed, and it's been fascinating to watch.

Almost every Ukrainian move has been textbook smart, while nearly every russian move has been madman dumb.

I suspect that Ukraine plans clear the east of russians before worrying about Kherson, while the textbook (at least the russian and german ones) would seem to indicate that Kherson is next, but I don't think Ukraine has anywhere near the numbers to think about dealing with Kherson or Crimea yet.

Have you spotted the rest of the Bushmasters yet?

At least 2 were spotted east of Kharkiv, but no idea where the rest are.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

The last update I saw said Ukrainian forces have advanced to the outlying villages of Kherson. Also Russia is apparently having problems with the civilian population of Kherson, which is tying up a fair amount of Russian troops

Apparently Russian advances have stalled on all fronts.

Also its been discussed that the bridge linking Crimea to Russia is close to becoming a target of Ukraine's.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

The last update I saw said Ukrainian forces have advanced to the outlying villages of Kherson.

Apparently Russian advances have stalled on all fronts.

Also its been discussed that the bridge linking Crimea to Russia is close to becoming a target of Ukraine's.

I saw the same thing from multiple sources, but it also doesn't appear that Ukraine is interested in pushing any farther there just yet, though I suspect they are trying to figure out how to disable the explosives russia installed under the bridge so Ukraine can eventually advance.

I strongly suspect that Ukraine is waiting for Bushmasters and Howitzers before attempting to cross that bridge, but I don't know if they plan to do it soon, or after clearing the east of russians.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

The Howitzers went to the eastern front and apparently did better than expected in their first engagement. A Russian convoy decided to leave the main road and intermix among the trees. Ukraine found the location by drone and the Howitzers wiped out the convoy.

As for the Kherson area, Russia has given up on their attempt to take Mykolaiv. The thought process is Russia will go to the North of Mykolaiv and swing to the west to bypass the city all together. I am not sure what Ukraine has in the areas between Kiev and Mykolaiv so I am just going to guess Russia will run face first into a metal wall.

I am curios what Russia has left in Crimea. I fully expect that to become a front at some point down the road. They need to drop the bridge linking Crimea to Russia before Ukraine tries to take Crimea back.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: PatriotGames4u

The Howitzers went to the eastern front and apparently did better than expected in their first engagement. A Russian convoy decided to leave the main road and intermix among the trees. Ukraine found the location by drone and the Howitzers wiped out the convoy.

As for the Kherson area, Russia has given up on their attempt to take Mykolaiv. The thought process is Russia will go to the North of Mykolaiv and swing to the west to bypass the city all together. I am not sure what Ukraine has in the areas between Kiev and Mykolaiv so I am just going to guess Russia will run face first into a metal wall.

I am curios what Russia has left in Crimea. I fully expect that to become a front at some point down the road. They need to drop the bridge linking Crimea to Russia before Ukraine tries to take Crimea back.

I saw the video of the last part of that convoy destruction, I don't think a single russian human or vehicle survived, those UK light drones aren't having any difficulty finding and targeting russians hiding in trees, the Howitzers aren't having any trouble getting 1st shot direct hits, and both had been an issue until very recently.

I also have no idea what russian humans are left in Crimea, but they do have weapons there that Ukraine doesn't have any tools to deal with yet.

I think this is what Ukraine is rebuilding it's air force for, and why sinking Moskva was so important. Just guessing in this based on what little we can see from here though.


I think Mykolaiv is just a russian pipe dream at this point.



I'm seeing persistent 'rumors' that Ukraine is moving a whole lot of forces into the south central region, but I think these will be the Territorial Defense units from northern areas, and I don't think many have actually moved there yet, but 15-20 BTGs of TDF in the rear there would certainly free up UA to start thinking about being more aggressive in Kherson.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Ukes have almost encircled some 22000 Russians near Izyum

If they can complete the encirclement and then bring in heavy howitzers Russia will be in world of hurt

originally posted by: firerescue
a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Ukes have almost encircled some 22000 Russians near Izyum

If they can complete the encirclement and then bring in heavy howitzers Russia will be in world of hurt

Agreed.

The ONLY reasons I haven't commented on the trapped russians there is that there are a number of BTGs in a position where they could quickly come to the rescue, and russia is still attempting to attack south from Izyum.

While it certainly looks like a good situation for Ukraine there, it's still far too hazardous for them there for me to get too excited about it yet.

I have been anxiously watching that situation, but mostly out of fear that russia is baiting a trap for Ukraine.

a reply to: PatriotGames4u
Ukraine attacked / eliminated the air defense on Snake Island.


Also Zelinksyy commented a day or so ago that plans were in place to help Mariupol.



* - Russia has begun deploying their new T-90M to Ukraine. They leave a large explosion when they are hit and destroyed.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: PatriotGames4u
Ukraine attacked / eliminated the air defense on Snake Island.


Also Zelinksyy commented a day or so ago that plans were in place to help Mariupol.

That one also got my interest, I just haven't found enough reliable information to make an informed guess about Ukraine's plans.

One possibility that I can hardly bring myself to even really consider (but probably should because Ukrainians appear to be highly over confident right now) is that all those TDF BTGs on the move are about to become the missing infantry for a mini blitzkrieg directly to Marioupol, led by most of the Bushmasters, the new self propelled long range artillery, along with 5-10 of Ukraine's best BTGs and 500 or so older russian tanks already located nearby, backed by most of their new Howitzers in the rear, with rear air cover only, provided by recently repaired fighters.




They appear to be at least bluffing the above.

It's way beyond reckless.

It also may be what Zelinsky thinks he has a responsibility to try.

Because it actually *could* succeed.

a reply to: Xcathdra

There are rumors that the Ukes have hit the Frigate ADMIRAL MAKAROV with anti ship missile

The reports are of yet unconfirmed

Anyone have any more information on this

en.wikipedia.org...

originally posted by: firerescue
a reply to: Xcathdra

There are rumors that the Ukes have hit the Frigate ADMIRAL MAKAROV with anti ship missile

The reports are of yet unconfirmed

Anyone have any more information on this

en.wikipedia.org...

I haven't seen anything except a little twitter type noise, and not even much of that, but this would be a really big deal if true.

Curious that wiki says 'was', but wiki can't really be used as an original source on something like this without confirming it somehow


Can anyone confirm if Makarov was at least in the area and close enough for Neptune?

originally posted by: firerescue
a reply to: Xcathdra

There are rumors that the Ukes have hit the Frigate ADMIRAL MAKAROV with anti ship missile

The reports are of yet unconfirmed

Anyone have any more information on this

en.wikipedia.org...

Are you pranking wiki?

Status was just changed to 'Promoted To Submarine'!







ETA: Status is now back to 'Active'.

Is it just me or did this smell like some kind of prank from the start?

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

It would follow a procession of events.

UK since 2018 has "kept an eye" on the ship.

Was just released that the UK has been providing intelligence to Ukraine.

If it was within range, would stand to reason as the heat toward Odessa has been turning up.

originally posted by: JinMI
a reply to: PatriotGames4u

It would follow a procession of events.

UK since 2018 has "kept an eye" on the ship.

Was just released that the UK has been providing intelligence to Ukraine.

If it was within range, would stand to reason as the heat toward Odessa has been turning up.

Yup, and it was the only s500 test platform remaining after the sinking of Moskva

I honestly thought Makarov was still in the Med, but it appears that it has indeed been operating in the Black Sea recently.

Possibly under it now.

Was anyone aware of the russian propaganda blogger that was arrested for treason in Spain?

I wasn't.


www.reuters.com...

a reply to: Xcathdra

Crimea has some odd geography in terms of how it connects to Ukraine. The Arabat Spit is narrow and very open terrain. Likewise, the Perekop Isthmus narrows down to a couple of bridges and narrow corridors. If a hurried retreat is tried through those corridors, there is potential for a bloodbath rivaling that of Falaise in 1944.

Cheers