Russia Ukraine Update Thread

originally posted by: NorthOfStuff

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: NorthOfStuff


For a nearly 200,000 man force, yeah, "sniffs fish" alright.

Cheers

What should we see in the way of supply lines to keep a force of that size fed and equipped a month into something like this?

I don’t know enough about supply logistics to make an informed conclusion about this situation.

Try the videos posted by RandomUser, he talks fast, which I actually like, but you'll probably want to pause it on the maps sometimes so you can really see what he's talking about.

He's made a video a day describing what's happened in the previous day fairly well, and goes into the russian logistical nightmare a little every day.


youtu.be...

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Thanks, I gave it a quick look and will be giving it a closer look later

originally posted by: Imhere

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: NorthOfStuff

Nobody said russia had been defeated, far from it, but they did come ill prepared for the invasion and have been retreating from 3 major areas where they've been taking a beating.

Reality

Your 2 cents about any breath of the actual situation here, is mute.

You’re just Josh’n acting like some real deal Chicago born like ME with full connect years ago to Guadalcanal tenant/ overseas


Your weight in this Russian/Ukrainian, and matter

Is zero.

But carry on

Nice, but I'm only discussing what's already been posted here while you guys keep making stuff up and spreading russian propaganda.

I have made no effort to act like any kind of 'real deal', other than as an experienced ATS member, and I've ignored all the bait you guys keep throwing out, so why keep doing it?



The 'real deal' is active in this thread, it just isn't me.

originally posted by: NorthOfStuff

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: NorthOfStuff


For a nearly 200,000 man force, yeah, "sniffs fish" alright.

Cheers

What should we see in the way of supply lines to keep a force of that size fed and equipped a month into something like this?

I don’t know enough about supply logistics to make an informed conclusion about this situation.

That's a great question.

Not just from the "information" standpoint of what mechanized forces need in terms of fuel, munitions, food, and potable water to operate effectively.

But what the basic factual answer leads to is a Russian approach to logistics.

The Russian military heavily depends on rail for its logistics. Don't feel like you have to believe me on that, a good read on the topic can be found at warontherocks.com...

The neat thing about that article is that it was written -before- the war with Ukraine started.

So, two things stand out. One is the dependency on railways. The corollary of that is the Russians don't deploy enough trucks in logistics roles to support operations at more than "distance X" from rail lines. The second bit the article mentions is that the Russians want swift operations, because, again, their logistical setup is not configured for long-term conflicts.

My take is the Ukraine conflict has gone on long enough to burn through the initial stocks of supplies the Russians gathered. Russian expectation was that Ukraine would quickly stop fighting. But that assumption was wrong and now logistics is requiring the Russian military to prioritize where they want to attack (Mariupol).

---

This is all not to say the Russians can't reorganize their forces and logistics and resume attacks at many points of the front. But as it stands now, they can only attack along a couple axes of advance.

Cheers

a reply to: PatriotGames4u

Thanks, bookmarked

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Great explanation, thanks.

Rail has to be one of the most vulnerable methods of supply. Too easy to sever at any point with minimal effort.

Not to mention the ease of predicting the rout and the limited service area.

Those following this thread might appreciate this list of articles.

Cheers

originally posted by: NorthOfStuff
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Great explanation, thanks.

Rail has to be one of the most vulnerable methods of supply. Too easy to sever at any point with minimal effort.

Not to mention the ease of predicting the rout and the limited service area.

Correct.

Now consider that all the major highways in Ukraine are essentially railroad spurs since it's almost impossible to move heavy military equipment on anything unpaved in Ukraine this time of year, and you'll have a pretty good understanding of why the Ukrainians have been so successful at ambushing just about everything with things like Javelins and mortars.

Doesn't appear either side is interested in de-escalation.
The CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) could be activated
Over attacks on Russia.
or worse,it could if continued, involve a nuclear response
for the sake of peace i hope not

originally posted by: all2human

Doesn't appear either side is interested in de-escalation.
The CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) could be activated
Over attacks on Russia.
or worse,it could if continued, involve a nuclear response
for the sake of peace i hope not

russia launching nukes is the only real concern, but it's a big one.

* - Another explosion in Belgorod. Possible air defense missile launch

* - Units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine restored control over the settlements of Demydiv, Dymer, Lytvynivka, Havrylivka, Kozarovychi, Zhovtneve, Hlybivka, Yasnohorodka, Talakun, Sukholuchcha, Lypivka, Gavronshchyna, Makovyshche, Mykolaivka, Khmilna, Kyiv region. After the enemy withdrew, the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine took control of the settlements of Rudnya, Shevchenkove, Bobryk, Stara Basan, Nova Basan, Makeyevka, Pogreby, Bazhanivka, Volodymyrivka, Shnyakivka, Salne, Sofiyivka, and Gavrylivka.

* - Russian troops left Ivankiv in Kyiv region. Photo by village council head of people celebrating

* - Video from Hostomel after Russian army left

Today:

Moscow is accusing Ukraine of sending two helicopters across the border (into Russia) to bomb an oil depot in Belgorod.

Vids here (Twitter)

Still trying to find more about this.

originally posted by: wordforword
Today:

Moscow is accusing Ukraine of sending two helicopters across the border (into Russia) to bomb an oil depot in Belgorod.

Vids here (Twitter)

Still trying to find more about this.

It occurred. Several pages back we were discussing it and several videos were posted. It caused Russia to throw a temper tantrum.

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: Xcathdra

* - Oil depot is on fire in Belgorod. Governor of Belgorod region accused Ukraine in helicopter attack at depot

I hear war is Hell when the people one is shooting at ... return fire.

Belgorod is relatively exposed to Ukrainian strikes.

ETA. Map gives an idea of distances. Image extract from publicly available map. Belgorod appears to be some 20 miles from the Russia-Ukraine border.

Cheers

All within the last 2 hours
* - Fire could spread to all reservoirs with fuel at Belgorod oil depot - emergency services. 200 firefighters on the site

* - 8 reservoirs with fuel on fire at oil depot in Belgorod

* - Oil depot is on fire in Belgorod. Governor of Belgorod region accused Ukraine in helicopter attack at depot

* - Telegram video / Safe

* - Twitter video / Safe - Helicopter attack on Belgorod

a reply to: Xcathdra

That's a long list of towns for a single day!

originally posted by: PatriotGames4u
a reply to: Xcathdra

That's a long list of towns for a single day!

It helps when Russia has to run away.

Attack in Belgorod

a reply to: wordforword

How dare the Ukrainians wage war against Russia, eh?

Cheers

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: wordforword
Today:

Moscow is accusing Ukraine of sending two helicopters across the border (into Russia) to bomb an oil depot in Belgorod.

Vids here (Twitter)

Still trying to find more about this.

It occurred. Several pages back we were discussing it and several videos were posted. It caused Russia to throw a temper tantrum.

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: Xcathdra

* - Oil depot is on fire in Belgorod. Governor of Belgorod region accused Ukraine in helicopter attack at depot

I hear war is Hell when the people one is shooting at ... return fire.

Belgorod is relatively exposed to Ukrainian strikes.

ETA. Map gives an idea of distances. Image extract from publicly available map. Belgorod appears to be some 20 miles from the Russia-Ukraine border.

Cheers

All within the last 2 hours
* - Fire could spread to all reservoirs with fuel at Belgorod oil depot - emergency services. 200 firefighters on the site

* - 8 reservoirs with fuel on fire at oil depot in Belgorod

* - Oil depot is on fire in Belgorod. Governor of Belgorod region accused Ukraine in helicopter attack at depot

* - Telegram video / Safe

* - Twitter video / Safe - Helicopter attack on Belgorod

Thanks, still trying to catch up with the recent news.

Many pages here to go through today. Lots of 'tit for tat' in a way

a reply to: Xcathdra


Known as the dam breaking after taking a beating.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: wordforword

How dare the Ukrainians wage war against Russia, eh?

Cheers

So many were warning about possible false flag in the near future, so, with every new occurrence naturaly you jump a bit: is this it?