Russia Ukraine Update Thread

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: Xcathdra

Russia needs more Chinese made bad copies of Michelin military grade tires.

Cheers

They could be coming, along with piles of cash.

www.cnn.com...

a reply to: Soloprotocol

yeh , they will literally be outraged at whatever #e the media shovel them

you could set a clock by it or something
once you see the pattern it cant be un seen
this is on repeat
how many times have they done this to us in the last 30 years ?

its all orchestrated bull# , and we all just lap it up .

i wish there was still places on earth you can live free without any government and no on there to bother you
I think I might go live in the sahara desert

a reply to: sapien82

Sahara desert you said? Let me enlighten you: Sahara desert is infested with Islamic terrorists, operating from Mali, and storming Algeria with the eunuch support in order to seize the gas fields there from which Europe gets its gas. Then you have the Polisario and the Moroccan armies fighting a guerrilla war, and not far away you have other yihadists groups all around the area.

It is also a main route for human trafficking from Subsaharian countries into Europe via Morocco and Libya. Your chances to get alive once there are close to nil.

Almost three weeks into the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Some observations on the military situation:

* Russian army is almost at a complete standstill. The desired swift conquest by airborne and mechanized troops failed, and now an inadequate field logistics system is unable to keep more than a small part of the invasion force supplied for mobile offensive operations. As a consequence, the Russian military is conducting positional warfare that in some ways bears more resemblance to World War One trench warfare than the highly mobile operations characteristic of the last 100 years.

* Russian army is suffering from serious morale issues. This has pushed general officers to attempt to lead by example, and, as a result, at least three have been killed in action. In contrast, Ukrainian forces are enthusiastically defending their country.

* Russian air operations appear limited. Ukrainian air defenses are more lethal than expected. In turn, this forces the aircraft to keep distance and use stand-off munitions. The Russian air force may be unwilling to expend too many stand-off munitions in case they are needed should the conflict expand beyond Ukraine.

* The Russian army understands they have logistical issues, but may be unable to sufficiently rectify the shortfalls. Worsening the logistical situation are the amateurish tactics of Russian forces that expose their logistical support to Ukrainian attacks.

* Russian forces underwent an initial period of shock as the predicted "liberation of Ukraine" turned out be nonsense and the Russian troops unexpectedly found themselves at war. To what extent the Russian troops can recover from this shock strongly depends on the quality of their leadership.

* Defensive weapons appear to be dominating the battlefield. This cuts both ways and affects either side if they mount offensive operations.

* The Ukrainian military appears much more competent than the Russians, but it is easier to look smarter when one is defending. The true test of their military competence will occur if they undertake large scale offensive operations.

Cheers

* - Kyiv(11:29). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Georgian President, vocal about Russia's war in Ukraine, just said the government denied her permission to hold official visits in European capitals and she was forced to covert official visits to private meetings

* - Heavy explosions audible in Kyiv

* - Shelling with MLRS GRAD targeting central districts of Avdiyivka, Donetsk region

* - Kharkiv, Kharkivs’ka Oblast’(11:01). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Russian military in Molodizhne village in Kherson

* - Russian media claim shooting down a ballistic missile in Donetsk

* - India is considering taking up a Russian offer to buy its crude oil and other commodities at discounted prices with payment via a rupee-rouble transaction, two Indian officials said, amid tough Western sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine

* - Aide to President of Ukraine: 4th round of talks with Russia to start soon

* - Kharkiv, Kharkivs’ka Oblast’(09:50). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - At least 2 killed after missile strike on Kramatorsk

* - Energotam: no transport connection between Enerhodar and Zaporizhiye as bridge in Kamyenske destroyed

* - Melitopol continues to fight back against occupation and the kidnapping of its mayor

* - British Defense Ministry: 2.5 million Ukrainians fled their homes due to the Russian attack

* - Unknown person burnt house of secretary of city council of Kherson Halyna Luhova with Molotov's cocktail

* - Heavy clashes reported near Brovary

* - In Okhtyrka as a result of night air strike on residential area at least three people were killed - city mayor Pavlo Kuzmenko

* - Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi(09:02). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Yesterday's fire after the shelling of the Kharkiv plant

* - Russian ministry of Defense claims offensive on Solodke, Stepne, Taramchuk, Slavne, Vodyane

As a reminder -

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

* - Widespread damage in Okhtyrka after overnight bombardment - Mayor of the town

* - Airstrike on Permomaiske, Mykolaiv region

* - Explosion reported in Kharkiv

* - Zhytomyr, Kharkiv(08:40). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now!

* - Dnipro(08:40). Red Alert: aerial threat. Sirens sounding. Take cover now

* - Ukrainian official: Russian bombing targeted the "Antonov" aircraft factory in the capital, Kyiv

* - 2 killed, 12 wounded as result of shelling on residential house at Bohatyrska 20 street in Kyiv

* - 1 killed, 5 residential houses damaged as result of airstrike on Snihurivka town in Mykolaiv region

* - Airstrike targeted and damaged TV tower in Rivne

* - 7 houses destroyed, 4 person wounded as result of missile strike on Stavyshe village of Zhytomyr region

* - Australia imposes sanctions on 33 Russian businessmen and their families

**********WARNING**********WARNING**********WARNING**********

After the video post and following the picture posts is combat footage

* - Video from Telegram showing what is said to be an Azov regiment ambush on Russian position inside Mariupol. At least one Kamaz Typhoon K destroyed, a couple BTRs and Tigr visible in footage (Twitter video / images Safe )

**********WARNING**********WARNING**********WARNING**********

*** So people understand my video/image posts ***

*** - If the link is normal (blue hyperlink) w/ nothing else - the video / images are by themselves and clear of any combat footage showing dead/wounded and the posts following are clear.

*** - If there is the red warning with the blue hyperlink saying Safe it means the video/images are clean but there are follow up posts showing combat footage with dead bodies / wounded people.

Obviously its at the time I post it. It's possible follow up posts (after the ones I cleared / Safe) will contain combat footage that some people might not want to see so be forewarned. When going to the links and you start to scroll down I would recommend going slow so you have an idea of what you might wish to avoid.
*** - Twitter has started putting age restrictions on posts that have the dead bodies / wounded. You see the restriction warning before video/photos will show.

*** So people understand my video/image posts ***

* - Heavy destruction in Vuhledar, Donetsk region after shelling

* - Spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington: I have never heard that Russia asked Beijing for military aid for Ukraine war

* - Ukrainian army shotdown Tu-243 UAV with MANPADS

As a reminder -

Just so people know and understand. Information from war zones can become confusing as there will no doubt be info released from the players (on both sides) involved that might not necessarily be true.

As such take everything as a possibility and NOT as absolute truth.

The very first casualty in a war is the truth and all warfare is based on deception

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

The morale issue with senior officers leading by example - The 3 generals seems to be what people/media are focusing on. However a good number of senior officers (below general down to major - lt. colonel - colonel) ranks are also being hit hard. Unlike the Western armies, where junior officers and non-coms / senior non-coms are trained to step in when they lose senior officers, the Russian army does not do this (from what ive seen / researched). So not only does it affect morale losing senior officers / flag officers (Generals), it has the added effect of essentially paralyzing units until the officers are replaced.


As far as the Russian Airforce - They are not trained in SEAD/DEAD (suppression of enemy air defenses / destroying enemy air defenses). Their pilots only get 60-100 hours of flight time per year where the west's pilots (The USAF for sure) gets about 200+ flight hours. Pilots who receive the suppression/destruction of enemy air defense roles get an additional 200 flight hours training for just that role a year.

* - good video on this topic -


As for the rest it seems Russia made the same fatal mistake Hitler did. Both Hitler and Putin were so sure of their superiority they though the invasion / conquer would take weeks (Hitler) and in Putins case 3-5 days. Their logistics were based on those time tables so when the invasion went beyond the 3-5 day mark they had to play catch up. Just like Hitler, there were not enough trucks to get supplies where they were needed.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Check. Initiative among junior personnel seems nonexistent in the Russian forces. More inertia contributing to positional warfare on their part.

Cheers

a reply to: Direne

so even in the most inhospitable places on earth there are humans just taking advantage , why am I not surprised

how about greenland or siberia or somewhere ,where there arent people or governments
so fed up with all these clowns telling us what to do

a reply to: majesticgent

That's Russia asking China now for military support.

Need help with there illegal invasion and cant manage it on there own requiring additional equipment.



I hope China tells them "bolt ya bunch of rockets".

In reality, the plans to kill the Soviet mass-mobilization army and replace it with a much leaner permanent standing force were well in motion beforehand, but the war served as timely political ammunition. Stiff resistance existed among the services, the General Staff, and senior officers, which was overcome by emphasizing Russian shortcomings in this conflict as an internal bludgeon. In time, some of the traditionalists’ views also held, as the next Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu reversed the least popular and most problematic reform ideas and resurrected elements of the original force structure.

Full article from 2018

Book (PDF download)

The Russo Georgian war exposed the limitations of Soviet-era military equipment and doctrine. Yet nothing beyond Soviet-style proclamations and displays took place in the years leading up to the war in Ukraine. For instance, the T-14 Armata's production numbers were never planned to replace Cold War-era tanks.

The Russians left combined arms behind at the gates before they invaded Georgia and Ukraine. So the lack of coordination among air units, ground forces and artillery is caused by poor standards in training and leadership. But the root of those issues lies in the Russian army's strange structure. In effect, officers fill the role of NCOs, with the other ranks filling acting as technical specialists.

I am still unravelling the Russian army mess. More reading is required on my part. But the evidence points to their system coming at the expense of expertise in logistics, strategy, operational planning, and flexible thinking. General Zhukov would turn over in his grave if he knew about the absence of Soviet/Russian military professionalism. So it's not an understatement to think that the next Zhukov will have a hard time bringing Russian military performance to "just good enough."

Also, tactical ineptitude or brilliance doesn't influence the outcome of wars. For all their limitations, the Russians are entrenched in Ukraine. Strategically, the Russians are likely to defeat Ukrainian forces via attrition. Putin will pour reinforcements into the meat grinder. Yet the Ukrainian's inability to destroy enemy supply lines and launch counteroffensives is their undoing.

a reply to: andy06shake

Putin might think of China as an ally but he should be more cautious when dealing with the man for the far east.

a reply to: xpert11

Russia's biggest dilemma seems to be they cannot mass produce there modern fighter aircraft and armour in any sort of significant numbers.

originally posted by: sapien82
a reply to: Direne

so even in the most inhospitable places on earth there are humans just taking advantage , why am I not surprised

how about greenland or siberia or somewhere ,where there arent people or governments
so fed up with all these clowns telling us what to do

A few of us could chip in or do a go fund me and buy an island off the coast of Scotland. Become self-sufficient and put up a hard border...with everyone. No Government, Police, or military interference whatsoever.

a reply to: Soloprotocol

Suppose he needs someone on his side bar Belarus.

Just about the entire World are pointing fingers at Russia in shame.

China would need to be nuts to jump on that particular bandwagon imho.

a reply to: andy06shake

One thing is certain; China will only do what China thinks right and best for China.

They have been rather cautious in their approach to this crisis, the last thing they want is a strong Russia.
Sino-Russian relations have been quite fractious in the past, even when they were allegedly on 'friendly' terms.

And they are more than aware of the possible implications if this escalates.

a reply to: Freeborn

I tend to agree China will do China.

But my bet is Winnie-the-Pooh is not up for giving Putin much honey.

originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: xpert11

Russia's biggest dilemma seems to be they cannot mass produce there modern fighter aircraft and armour in any sort of significant numbers.

Specifically, I wonder to what degree logistical issues are behind the presumed absence of Russia's Mine-Resistant [Ambush Protected vehicles] from Ukraine. Did the Russians limit the number of those Kamaz-63969 Typhoon because they can't supply the additional fuel required for cross country travel? Do those vehicles have the 4WD capabilities of their MRAP and international counterparts?

Moreover, going off-road allows armies to avoid roads and increase the chances for manoeuvre warfare.

a reply to: SaviorIsReal

If you truly believe Russia today is anything remotely like a communist society then I'd suggest you have a basic and fundamental mis-understanding of communist ideology.
Some would argue that the same can be said about China.