posted on Mar, 10 2022 @ 08:41 AM
For everyone who is claiming that electric or hydrogen will replace hydrocarbon fuel (aka gasoline/diesel), nope. Electricity and hydrogen are not
energy sources... they are energy reservoirs.
Electricity must be produced from an energy source, be that solar, wind turbines, hydrocarbon fuel, hydro-electrics, or nuclear reactions. Of those,
only hydrocarbons and nuclear are generally viable. Hydro-electric requires running water, which we have pretty much ran out of, and solar/wind are
niche sources and not conducive to large-scale energy production over the long term.
Nuclear is a good option; I like nuclear. But nuclear is dangerous if not properly designed and maintained, and thus is expensive and time-consuming
to construct. A nuclear power plant requires at least 5 years to construct (plus a few additional years to inspect, test, and approve) and billions of
dollars in investment. If we decided right now, this minute, to go whole-hog nuclear, we would not see the first watt from that decision materialize
until 2030 at least.
That leaves hydrocarbons... oil. Or coal, but we don't like coal. We'd rather die of exposure than burn a lump of coal to keep warm.
Electrical wave energy is promising, but there are technical issues with corrosion. It would also be useless more than a few hundred miles from the
shore.
Hydrogen exists as the most abundant element in the universe... but not as hydrogen. It exists primarily (on earth anyway) in compounds. The most
abundant compound? Water. It requires energy to separate hydrogen from oxygen in water, and as it turns out, physics says we need as much energy to
separate it as we get when we burn it.
So again, we need hydrocarbons. Unless someone knows about a fleet of spaceships that are going to harvest clouds of interstellar gas. I haven't heard
of any expected to be launched soon... and if they are launched, what will power them?
Bottom line, even if EVs or hydrogen engines are developed, they will not reduce our dependency on oil, nor will they lead to any cost savings for the
public. EVs will also suffer from a lack of infrastructure, limited range, additional pollution from manufacture of those fancy batteries, and
maintenance issues (electrical connections and constant vibration do not play well together).
The economic impact will be devastating. Fuel costs affect everything, even the fuel cost itself. Those tankers don't run on air; even the cost of
fuel is dependent on the cost of fuel. We are already in hyperinflation; in the past four months I have seen food prices jump anywhere from 25% to
200%. Gas has gone from $1.90 in November 2020 to $4.30 as of yesterday evening. Diesel is now $5.40 a gallon. That's not in New York or California...
that's in Alabama. I cannot fathom what fuel prices are in California right now.
I expect gas to top $5 a gallon by the end of the month... I expect diesel to be over $6.
Someone earlier in the thread mentioned fuel surcharges... yes, they still exist, but they went to $0 under Trump. They exist because shippers were
caught with their pants down the last time we saw a fuel price spike under Obama and they don't want that to happen again. A fuel surcharge is a
percentage of the fuel cost above a specified amount, payable to whoever buys the fuel for transportation (the company for company drivers; the driver
for owner-ops). It is still in almost every shipping contract.
What is going to happen is as follows: as costs for basic goods like food or fuel rise, those prices will increase. That will mean less disposable
income for many families and thus less money to buy other things. That will reduce demand for those other things, and will keep the prices pretty
close to level even with higher shipping costs. The reduced demand will also cause layoffs in the manufacture/importation of such goods, which will
lead to more people in poverty. That will lead to more government assistance, which will only happen through increased debt or higher taxation. Both
will cause more inflation.
At the same time, less people driving means less tax revenue. That means more of our infrastructure will fall into disrepair, and that in itself will
feed back into shipping costs (maintenance). Employment will become more expensive too, as no one will pay in gas for the privilege of working. Wages
must cover the cost of getting to and from work. That will feed back into more inflation.
We are looking at another Great Depression... only this time, I don't think most people will be able to handle it.
This all ends in revolution... bloody, messy, violent revolution. And it might take a few generations for people to become strong enough through
adversity to pull it off. Angry tweets will not be enough.
Welcome to Utopia.
TheRedneck