U.S. Pacific intel chief: Coming Chinese attack on Taiwan could target other nations

originally posted by: Nunyabizisit
a reply to: TritonTaranis


The U.S. currently has no peer.

Not even with CCP, Russia, Iran & North Korea COMBINED.

Though all at once would certainly be painful.

I’m not sure what decade you’re in

It isn’t this one

I think maybe this type of thinking is part of the failure to refocus and act

You see the CCP have been plotting their rise and US downfall every minute of every day until this very point for the past 70 years … and when they’re about to leap frog economically and militarily

That’s right now

You still seem stuck in the 80s with that invincible Rambo mindset, while a pace never seen before unfolds in-front of you

Which has the wind so far up military planners arses that they’re scurrying for more funding and allies, which doesn’t even come close to keeping up PLA military expansion in every area, unless of course a NATO style refocus occurs

Honestly at this point it’s just laughable to still be stuck in MURICA mode while such a prolific threat is knocking

originally posted by: TritonTaranis

originally posted by: Nunyabizisit
a reply to: TritonTaranis


The U.S. currently has no peer.

Not even with CCP, Russia, Iran & North Korea COMBINED.

Though all at once would certainly be painful.

I’m not sure what decade you’re in

It isn’t this one

I think maybe this type of thinking is part of the failure to refocus and act

You see the CCP have been plotting their rise and US downfall every minute of every day until this very point for the past 70 years … and when they’re about to leap frog economically and militarily

That’s right now

You still seem stuck in the 80s with that invincible Rambo mindset, while a pace never seen before unfolds in-front of you

Which has the wind so far up military planners arses that they’re scurrying for more funding and allies, which doesn’t even come close to keeping up PLA military expansion in every area, unless of course a NATO style refocus occurs

Honestly at this point it’s just laughable to still be stuck in MURICA mode while such a prolific threat is knocking

You have it backwards.

We had strong peer for all of 70s and most of 80s.

And likely will again.

We do not have military peer right now.

Can more than match entire world at once if needed.

Extremely painful. But outcome assured.

Using no nukes. While defending against same.

Suggest you research even publicly known systems, numbers, and capabilities before continuing.

Even those will easily confirm everything discussed.

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk

Back in the 80's, President Reagan came up with the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). Ultimately, it was the demise of the Soviet Union. Nobody knew it then, but that's what it was. Why?

SDI meant that Russia could fire missiles at the US and we could shoot them down (real or imagined), and the US could fire missiles back at Russia with near immunity. Folks, Russia freaked out about this, and it ultimately collapsed their entire economy. Why? Because the age-old MAD doctrine had ben disrupted (from Russia's perspective). The US had literally "spent" Russia into oblivion.

China was just a "puppy" then.

Imagine China now. Despite Jao Bai-Dan, they're not going to take on the US military! Reagan was president nearly 40 years ago, and if anyone thinks weapons system haven't improve in that time, well, they're foolish!

I would LOVE to share what I know about that famous Reykjavik summit where Gorby turned white as a ghost, but not very comfortable doing so in detail here.

Will keep certain things vague.

There were a couple very shocking reasons for Gorby's very visible anxiety attack, besides Ronnie refusing the zero option that Gorby was begging for.

Literally BEGGING to give up ALL of russia's nukes in exchange for same after that pair of demonstrations.

Both had to do with a secret global demonstration of our dominant position, that ruskies were COMPLETELY unaware of until that day.

Neither had anything to do with SDI, which was still only a bluff at that point, but one that USSR bought completely.

So they saw demonstrations, AND thought we had SDI already deployed. (Incorrectly)

Took them YEARS to even figure out what some of the platforns used for the demonstrations were.

Made it clear that we could obliterate USSR whenever desired, and that they had zero defense for same.

USSR wouldn't even see it coming.

Cold war effectively ended within hours.

No possible way for already broke USSR to even attempt to catch up at that point.

Having already spent everything they had on massive quantities of weapons systems that were suddenly all but useless.

Meanwhile, CCP still can't even produce weapons to match much of what we deployed in the 70s.

No doom porn required for CCP.

Only concerns for CCP stupidity.

originally posted by: Nunyabizisit

originally posted by: TritonTaranis

originally posted by: Nunyabizisit
a reply to: TritonTaranis


The U.S. currently has no peer.

Not even with CCP, Russia, Iran & North Korea COMBINED.

Though all at once would certainly be painful.

I’m not sure what decade you’re in

It isn’t this one

I think maybe this type of thinking is part of the failure to refocus and act

You see the CCP have been plotting their rise and US downfall every minute of every day until this very point for the past 70 years … and when they’re about to leap frog economically and militarily

That’s right now

You still seem stuck in the 80s with that invincible Rambo mindset, while a pace never seen before unfolds in-front of you

Which has the wind so far up military planners arses that they’re scurrying for more funding and allies, which doesn’t even come close to keeping up PLA military expansion in every area, unless of course a NATO style refocus occurs

Honestly at this point it’s just laughable to still be stuck in MURICA mode while such a prolific threat is knocking

You have it backwards.

We had strong peer for all of 70s and most of 80s.

And likely will again.

We do not have military peer right now.

Can more than match entire world at once if needed.

Extremely painful. But outcome assured.

Using no nukes. While defending against same.

Suggest you research even publicly known systems, numbers, and capabilities before continuing.

Even those will easily confirm everything discussed.

Sorry it just doesn’t work like that, kinda seems like you’re adding up all forced and assuming they’ll just throw everything and the kitchen sink at the PLA, it’ll require mostly naval assets and aircraft rather than land units anyway, it won’t be like command & conquer lol

Like I said most of us bases are within the range of tens of thousands of DF missiles, those bases are gone, you can forget those immediately, you’re just going to get overwhelmed

It’s neither going to look like Hamas firing a few hundred crappy rockets at the iron dome, it’s just going to be absolutely brutal barrages or rockets raining at overwhelmed patriots and C WIS

Best thing for the US to do is to work something out with the Philippines and drag the PLAN into those 3rd 4th island chains possibly using new platforms and force multiplier, fast attack drone ships and UAV swarms LOCUST and new hypersonic platforms because also of the bat the PLAN is going to have that 3/1 advantage on naval power in the region

Most of US 1st/2nd island bases will get hammered, the South China Sea especially the paracel islands and spratleys is a PLAN sensory net, so no chance are the USN spending much time down there as soon as it kicks of they’ll be out the malacca straits into the Indian Ocean setting up naval blockades, and the more different types of platforms they load those islands up with poses an even bigger targeting problem

Tbh I think the US will chose to contain and deny PLAN within the 4/5 chains, by sitting back and having more of a standoff long range hypersonic attack approach, hence the talk of Arsenal ships or bomb truck type of approach, hence why the RN recently decided to double it type 45 with 70+ more missile tubes

The USN will also need these upgrades to deal with these potential massive saturation attacks or the introduction of the Arsenal ships with potentially hundreds of tubs and launchers

One things for sure the PLAN will initially take control of that region AS IT STANDS NOW, , it’s a far better idea to swim the PLAN out into the deep and dismantle their advantages there

Which will then present some potentially bigger problems in Chinese manufacturing /war industries, they also have that advantages or being able to both build and repair ships and hardware at much greater speeds and numbers currently than the US

So somehow you’re going to need to penetrate deep into enemy territory, this will require a lot of stealthier tankers, which the US currently doesn’t have, however they’re testing now thankfully, and aircraft with high survivability, not sure if the B21 raider is up to that job? but then where would they be based Australia ? India?

So huge HUGE challenges ahead, as it stands and because the PLA know how much of a challenge and update the US will need, that’s why Taiwan is currently a problem and threat, to say yada yada nukes or but units units is like I keep saying BONKERS

a reply to: TritonTaranis


Nothing about battle plan against CCP would be even remotely as you described.

Suggest you study before posting more nonsense.

originally posted by: Nunyabizisit
a reply to: TritonTaranis


Nothing about battle plan against CCP would be even remotely as you described.

Suggest you study before posting more nonsense.

I never wrote the a battle plan, I just told you which platforms are being discussed for potential development and usage in this particular theatre, I mean I’m sure they’re needed for a good reason, and that’s because confidence is massively eroding

But I’d love to hear your battle plan

originally posted by: TritonTaranis

originally posted by: Nunyabizisit
a reply to: TritonTaranis


Nothing about battle plan against CCP would be even remotely as you described.

Suggest you study before posting more nonsense.

I never wrote the a battle plan, I just told you which platforms are being discussed for potential development and usage in this particular theatre, I mean I’m sure they’re needed for a good reason, and that’s because confidence is massively eroding

But I’d love to hear your battle plan

Not. Going. To. Happen.

All that needs to be said is that we are well aware of CCP capabilities and severe limitations of same, so have deployed everything needed to neutralize, and then do as we want.

Very little of what we would deploy is within effective range of anything CCP has, except nukes.

And have decent defenses for that.

While they are well within our range for nearly everything we have in the region.

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
However, what is the ratio of strategic incompetence to tactical superiority? It has been demonstrated time and time again.

Providing that I have understood that question, then the American Civil War is a valuable case study. At the onset of the war, the Confederacy and Federal forces shared unrealistic expectations for the conflict. Crucially, nobody in the Confederacy grasped the overall picture that involved emerging technologies/logistics (railroads and industrial output), personnel numbers and seapower. Generals Winfield Scott's Anaconda Plan, and Ulysses S. Grant evolving understanding of strategy, swung the tide of history in their favour.

Specifically, by 1943 - 44, the Soviet employment of combined arms exceeded that of the Germans. Also, their capacity to replace equipment and causalities remained the same or increased. Yet, the Germans had no answer to the Soviet onslaught before D-Day.

To frame my outline, in terms of the People's Liberation Army Navy, two years of wartime experience might close any gaps in tactical and operational expertise. So the outcome of the war falls into who has the preexisting grasp of the strategic sphere or the next Grant.

Lastly, I ask the reader to forgive my short and simple summary; time, topical constraints and space are necessary constraints.

originally posted by: Nunyabizisit
Neither had anything to do with SDI, which was still only a bluff at that point, but one that USSR bought completely.

Well, it does make sense of why the tptb inexplicably cast an actor as president. He seems to have given an Oscar worthy performance.

I’ve wondered if the UAP mania currently emanating from the US establishment is from the same playbook. When the US says it’s not their tech, they may well be hoping that all those foreign powers who don’t have such tech will assume that the US are lying and it must be US tech. When in fact it’s an SDI 2.0… Reverse psychology is never outdated.

a reply to: TritonTaranis

Insightful analysis. Aside from U.S. or coalition military commanders displaying Nelsonian intent, there is a political element in play if the U.S. political decision-makers opted for "preemptive" military action to defend Taiwan. The risk of eroding public support for that war increases.

Sea mines and the range of cruise missiles and other weapon platforms ensures that there is no home front. Unlike in WW2, the U.S. won't enjoy the luxury of mobilisations beyond the range of enemy action. Yet China is prepared to risk those kinds of consequences in a long war.

I see two compelling issues. First, economically, the U.S might not survive the conflict. The costs of war on top of existing government debt might turn the U.S. into the next Greece. Alternately, hyperinflation overruns the country. Second, the increased money supply to fund the war overruns the economic benefits of full employment and mobilising industry to pay the bill.

Economics aside, Chinese and Russian propaganda aimed at sowing public discord and divisions might have a greater or equal effect than aerial bombing on the conduct and continuation of the war.

Suppose you place representatives of the America First redux, Bernie Sanders socialists, Chamberlain's champions of appeasement, and Woodrow Wilson's ghost in a room. The only point of agreement might concern isolationist or international neutrality sentiment. For a time, they might shape their country's foreign policy—nevertheless, the effects of seceding Taiwan to China are ongoing. China is encouraged, and threats to freedom of navigation and commerce drag the U.S. into war.

a reply to: xpert11

You make a good point about having kept the sword sharp and rust-free. Everything China does internally and externally has been a squash situation. Neither Tibet nor Hong Kong would stand against China’s numbers very long.

Everyone runs scenarios, but everyone has Russia remaining neutral. Would it not greatly benefit Russia to knock China back to the 1970’s? Consider all the goods exported to the US from modern China...two birds, one stone all while looking like they are helping keep the peace. Win-Win-Win for Putin, especially if they get the lion’s share of rebuilding contracts.

Jus curious as to how they're gonna get to Taiwan. Is it walking or swimming?

a reply to: TritonTaranis

No.

Literal military superiority would be the downfall of the CCP. You do not understand the weapons systems, the logistical abilities or even the military doctrine of the USA.

60 years ago the US almost took the world to armageddon because of a little incident in Cuba, that was 60 years ago. Ever since then the Russians haven't been able to have a sneaky piss in the garden without the US detecting it. If you think that ability hasn't been improved I'd suggest you start learning Mandarin.

You've got people in this thread with a lot more understanding than me telling you that you're pissing in the wind and frankly I believe them, they understand the urine is on the face.

What good is a navy without supply ships or docks? What good is an air force without ammunition or runways?

Even with my limited knowledge I can tell you that the US could easily deny China their own coasts, probably upto a few hundred miles inland, that means no logistics, a very limited ability to mass a force and even less ability to project it. I'm talking about classic denial of area and everything that moves will die.

The only saving grace China may have in a hypothetical war is their reluctance to wipe Taiwan off the map, once civilians are firmly in the cross hairs their will be no holding of punches by the US or it's many allies.

a reply to: Nunyabizisit

That's the US alone too, add all the alliances, the experience of working together and the nature of the technology and capabilities?

Propaganda and capabilities don't always add up. First gulf war and T-72's come to mind.

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

You really think the Democrats are going to nuke China in defense of Taiwan? Really? You think a Democrat administration beholden to the CCP is going to put up much resistance? Really? Do you really think the most powerful corporations in the world, the Big Tech giants like Google, etc. who are utterly dependent upon the good wishes of the CCP are going to stand by and allow their puppet party, the Democrats, to interfere in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? REally?

originally posted by: TonyS
a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

You really think the Democrats are going to nuke China in defense of Taiwan? Really? You think a Democrat administration beholden to the CCP is going to put up much resistance? Really? Do you really think the most powerful corporations in the world, the Big Tech giants like Google, etc. who are utterly dependent upon the good wishes of the CCP are going to stand by and allow their puppet party, the Democrats, to interfere in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? REally?

We don't need nukes for CCP.

But I do worry about joe just agreeing to let it happen.

Is why democrats fight every effort to officially recognize Taiwan.

They want the option to just abandon freedom loving Taiwan when the time comes.

Disgusting.

originally posted by: RAY1990
a reply to: Nunyabizisit
Propaganda and capabilities don't always add up. First gulf war and T-72's come to mind.

Talking heads were CERTAIN that NATO killer T72 was going to wipe floor with Americans.

Talked it up nearly 24-7 for months.

In the end, we destroyed thousands of them (in 4 days), while a few of our tanks got scratched paint (most didn't even have scratched paint).

There is an intact T72 on display at a U.S. Marine base, right under the main entrance flag pole. Was captured by a US. LAV (APC) after T72 ran out of ammunition, and then fuel. After not managing to hit a single LAV.

The Vaulted T72 Nato Killer couldn't even hurt a few APCs, with nothing larger than 25mm. Couldn't hit them.

An entire Iraqi armored brigade surrendered to a single U.S. helicopter after seeing what happened to nearby Iraqi divisions. Watched an entire division of dug in Iraqi armor erased in 2 hours without a single American loss. Two of those divisions in one night.

Russians thought news at the time was propaganda (like their own media) and flat out didn't believe it. Told Iraq to keep fighting, Americans are not telling truth. Boy were they surprised.

Most current CCP systems are EXACTLY like T72 paper tiger.

And CCP is aware.

Their BEST fighter jet is only now catching up to platforms that we deployed in 70s, and they have few of these. Our 70s platforms aren't even sufficient as 'enemy' during U.S. war games, we have to significantly limit those 70s platforms to match current CCP actual.

Surprise can always hurt us in short term, but CCP does not currently have the tools to take on the U.S.

Not even close.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

Jus curious as to how they're gonna get to Taiwan. Is it walking or swimming?

Catapult.

a reply to: Bluntone22

Pooh wont risk losing valuable ships and face at the sea. Their strength is in unconventional tactics and quantity. All they need is couple of well copied rockets and cruise missiles, produce it in thousands and let them rain on the whole area for long enough before an invasion. I dont doubt they learned from uncle Sam a trick or two.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

Jus curious as to how they're gonna get to Taiwan. Is it walking or swimming?

They’ve massively upgraded their amphibious capabilities, but still… PLA Navy has a large militia navy. Vessels like tugs, oilers, barges, ferries, fishing boats, semi-submersible platforms, container carriers, and heavy roll-on/roll-off cargo ships would be mobilized. I mean how man cruise ships are out of business right now

According to Chinese military doctrine, many ships would be deployed as decoys, conducting feints to distract attention away from the main assault.

That’s without airbourne drops

We’re talking about China here, they do things on a insanely large scale regularly, they do have the capability to invade, the question is can allies get their fast enough to deal some serious blows and casualties, and that’s questionable given they’d be hit simultaneously