U.S. Pacific intel chief: Coming Chinese attack on Taiwan could target other nations

a reply to: Scapegrace

My thought on Russia on the situation is they are going to let the two of us fight it out and then if push comes to shove and they need to get involved they will pick the side that is in the best position. Is it in their best interests to get involved now when both sides are strong? It's also a possibility that Russia does have an ally in this but no one knows. Wouldn't it be something if a conflict erupted and They swoop into and take large areas of land from China for themselves? Kind of similar to what happened in WWII when they took huge areas of land and resources.

a reply to: Charliebrowndog

Don't be so sure, Putin would love nothing better than to step dead-square on the middle of Xi's nutsack, and to have the rest of the free world stand behind him doing it would just be icing on the cake. Russia has more nukes pointed at China than it has pointed at all of Western Europe. And, the reason for this is for the exact same reasons as what China is saber rattling over Taiwan for, expansionism.

ETA - Is Taiwan near Russia geographically? No, not at all, but Putin knows if China makes a move on Taiwan he's going to have western navies all over the North Pacific. He's going to then be dealing with a giant air-corridor from the Aleutians down to the East China Sea, and massive air and sea corridors coming NW out of Hawaii and Guam. In so doing Putin's entire Eastern Fleet will effectively be cut-off from the Pacific (the sole purpose for its existence), and fenced in. He's not going to let that happen, so he almost can't avoid getting involved.

In fact, Russia probably poses as big of a deterrent to China invading Taiwan as the West poses to China.

ETA 2 - To illustrate this last point, take out a world map and a red highlighter. Now draw a fat line from the Aleutians SW down to the East China Sea. Then draw two big fat lines from Hawaii and Guam WNW and NW up to the same location in the in the East China Sea. Now put on Putin's hat. His Eastern Fleet is HQ'd at Kamchatka...where is he going to be able to go?? Can he still navigate through these areas? Sure. But during wartime??? Well, it's not a real good idea to be sailing through waters where you've got subs shooting at anything that moves, including each other.

So, Russia has no way of staying out of it...even if they wanted to.

Oh, and if all that wasn't bad enough for China, they'll also lose their new stake in the South China Sea during all this so it can't be used as a beach head to launch attacks south and east from. China invading Taiwan is just a Lose-Lose-Lose proposition, there's no up side to it.

a reply to: Charliebrowndog

Unlikely Russia knows its only true threat is China they are not stupid. Russia also knows its growing dependence on China, Russia will subtly play second fiddle in a Sino-centric bloc. And Putin won't go for that at all I assure you. Also, Russia has much closer relations with India in fact New Delhi’s suggested that Moscow join the US-led Indo-Pacific grouping, which is widely seen as anti-China.

But what will likely drive Russia to a defensive war with China before the next decade is out is the growing probability of Chinese territorial encroachment into Russia’s sparsely populated far eastern region bordering the Pacific. The Russian territories north of the Amur and east of the Ussuri Rivers in eastern-Central Asia, which currently demarcate the agreed boundaries between the two countries, are historically and insistently claimed by China. Chinese military maps even show these areas as Chinese territories.

So Putin knows after Taiwan hes next. China only has one goal reclaim all territory they believe is theirs.

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

A fascinating scenario for people to consider, and establishes an alliance of convenience between Russia and NATO until the conflict ends. The alternative way that temporary upending of geopolitical interests occurs in China invades Siberia. In the first contingency, there is no endpoint for the Russians. If China is the aggressor, the defence of Siberia's natural resources is paramount.

If China invaded hell, I would send aid to the devil. (To borrow from Winston Churchill).

On the balance of probability, Putin doesn't change his westwards outlook. However, Russia's meddling in Ukraine displays its outlook towards Poland and the Baltic states. About the outcome, one might consider the second Battle for Berlin. Nevertheless, how events play out beyond the fall of Berlin is beyond the scope of our discussion.

a reply to: TritonTaranis

China is claiming territory for almost every nation of the world, including at least one Russian city. They are also claiming Australia's claim to the Antarctic is theirs... They claim part of India is theirs and have sent troops deep within Indian territory and CCP troops and Indian troops have fought. They also want the moon and the Arctic, as well as islands that belong to other nations and even entire countries like Taiwan...

If the CCP continues to claim the Russian city is theirs their relationship with Russia might end sooner than later.

a reply to: ElectricUniverse

I just finished reading a book about the start of a war between China and the US. The book was really good written by a former navy admiral. In it he starts with Taiwan being invaded by China and walks you through the war in a tom clancy style.

admiralstav.com...

On March 12, 2034, US Navy Commodore Sarah Hunt is on the bridge of her flagship, the guided missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones, conducting a routine freedom of navigation patrol in the South China Sea when her ship detects an unflagged trawler in clear distress, smoke billowing from its bridge. On that same day, US Marine aviator Major Chris “Wedge” Mitchell is flying an F35E Lightning over the Strait of Hormuz, testing a new stealth technology as he flirts with Iranian airspace.

By the end of that day, Wedge will be an Iranian prisoner, and Sarah Hunt’s destroyer will lie at the bottom of the sea, sunk by the Chinese Navy. Iran and China have clearly coordinated their moves, which involve the use of powerful new forms of cyber weaponry that render US ships and planes defenseless. In a single day, America’s faith in its military’s strategic pre-eminence is in tatters. A new, terrifying era is at hand.

I had a real problem putting this book down the details involved was like reading a play by play of ww3.

a reply to: TritonTaranis

how well trained and disaplined are thoes CCP troop?

its not like they will be m,essing with old grandmas at the market, they will be fighting stand off weapons, hypersonic aircraft/spacecraft/ and a fighting force that will make china look like the middle east

and it doesnt matter if China has 10,000 nukes they will never use even ONE because the moment they nuke US or NATO forces China will no longer exist in the way it is accustomed to opperating.

i wonder in Xi and his genrals are even in China because if they are you can bet you bottom dollor we are keeping an eye on him and his power structure.

China seems to think we need to put boots on the ground to remove them from the map.

If China attacks Japan or Australia and even Hong Kong, God help them.

those tunnels and silos they like showing off will just be rubble and they MIGHT get one or two nukes off from a boat MAYBE.

China would get to see the US's bag of tricks that they couldnt steal or come up with them self's.


I say let China even try to make a move at Japan or Australia, Japan is what they call a turn key nuclear power. They have all the reactors pumping out uranium and plutonium and your crazy if you don't think Japan has a few warheads tucked away, maybe with the cores maybe with out.

if they hit Australia NATO will just destroy Chinas ports and manufacturing and just blockade and shipments and India can make sure nothing gets over land.


China isent exactly a push over but it isent even close to the US and our allies and at this point i think there are people itching to pull the trigger on China

a reply to: penroc3

Not very well trained at all they work on a conscript basis. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) struggles under the legacy of an obsolete command system, rampant corruption, and training of debatable realism. They have very little combat experience as well the PLA last fought a major conflict nearly 40 years ago, when a seasoned Vietnamese military demolished a bungled Chinese invasion in 1979. They had overwhelming numbers and still lost. Officers in the PLA can actually purchase promotions I kid you not. So it isnt the most knowledgeable that gain rank but the most wealthy.

Despite a growing defense budget, China’s arsenals still overflow with outdated equipment. The PLA possesses 7,580 main battle tanks—more than the U.S. Army. But only 450 of those tanks—the Type 98As and Type 99s—are anywhere near modern, with 125-millimeter guns, composite armor, modern suspension, and advanced fire control systems.

All of America’s roughly 5,000 M-1 tanks are modern.


At the same time, China is remarkably lacking in real, dependable allies. In the Pacific alone, the United States can count Japan, Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand and The Philippines as close allies—and maintains cordial relations with others including Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Who does China have well sort of Russia but they don't trust each other.

So overall China has zero chance of winning any real conventional war. But that's not the plan their hope is they can intimidate others not to react. Such as Japan though from what im reading Japan indeed will go to war over Taiwan.

originally posted by: dragonridr
a reply to: penroc3

Not very well trained at all they work on a conscript basis. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) struggles under the legacy of an obsolete command system, rampant corruption, and training of debatable realism. They have very little combat experience as well the PLA last fought a major conflict nearly 40 years ago, when a seasoned Vietnamese military demolished a bungled Chinese invasion in 1979. They had overwhelming numbers and still lost. Officers in the PLA can actually purchase promotions I kid you not. So it isnt the most knowledgeable that gain rank but the most wealthy.

AND...the least likely to actually "fight".

Despite a growing defense budget, China’s arsenals still overflow with outdated equipment. The PLA possesses 7,580 main battle tanks—more than the U.S. Army. But only 450 of those tanks—the Type 98As and Type 99s—are anywhere near modern, with 125-millimeter guns, composite armor, modern suspension, and advanced fire control systems.

All of America’s roughly 5,000 M-1 tanks are modern.

Yes, and I realize you were just using tanks as an example, but I cannot visualize any kind of conflict with China involving large amounts of armor. The goal will never be to occupy China, so I would doubt there would ever be some kind of sizable ground conflict. The vast majority of any conflict with China will be waged at sea and in the air. Personally, I think the Western allied world holds the advantage in the sea and in the air, both strategically and tactically, but China's deep reserves of older vintage ships and aircraft could prove to be particularly problematic for any extended conflict.

At the same time, China is remarkably lacking in real, dependable allies. In the Pacific alone, the United States can count Japan, Taiwan, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand and The Philippines as close allies—and maintains cordial relations with others including Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Who does China have well sort of Russia but they don't trust each other.

My spidey senses tell me Vlad ain't touchin' something like this with a 10 foot pole. And, while I agree with most of the 'allies' you listed, I'm not so sure I would include Indonesia on that list. Of all the countries in Asiana, Indonesia is probably one of the biggest bogies, and this is actually a fairly serious strategic problem as well.

So overall China has zero chance of winning any real conventional war. But that's not the plan their hope is they can intimidate others not to react. Such as Japan though from what im reading Japan indeed will go to war over Taiwan.

See, and that's just the thing; I don't envision any conflict with China being a 'conventional war' at all, IF it were ever to even happen (which I sincerely doubt). What I see is a conflict which begins with some minor air and sea skirmishes and then escalates very quickly to a standoff with nuclear deterrents. The ground game will be bypassed almost completely. Any ground invasion of Taiwan by China would be ended before China ever reached the be ach. And, I personally believe, the largest weapon used will be a telephone.

Further, I don't think Japan will do much of anything, if anything at all. They've got too much at stake. I think they'll just be content to serve as an operational beach head for the West.

On kind of a related note, keep your eyes on the South Pacific over the next year or so. Don't be surprised when you see a significant escalation of no-fly zones popping up in this region, especially around Kwajalein Atoll.

BTW - Want to see the absolute scariest photograph ever taken in the history of the camera? It's this photo, right here (and it's a real photo too!)...



Game, Set and Match.

遊戲結束 - 感謝您的參與！

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

Is that a longer-than-normal photographic exposure of MIRV's?

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Yes, I believe it was a several second exposure.

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

it was a live fire sub launch(with out the nukes, just weight simulators)


imagine 3 of those happening all at once

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

Well i agree for the most part like the PLA is likely to run as much as fight happened against Vietnam. However, on Japan Taiwan becomes a vital strategic consideration if China goes unchecked. They know they would lose access to the south China sea and a lot of their trade goes through there. It Puts China o its front doorstep and Okinawa would be impossible to defend.

japan's concerns about Taiwan, Beijing’s growing rivalry with the United States, and China’s increasingly assertive military actions in the region were added to an annual Defense Ministry paper that was adopted Tuesday by Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s Cabinet.

“Stabilizing the Taiwan situation is important for Japan’s national security and stability of the international community,” the paper said. “We need to pay close attention with a sense of crisis more than ever before.”

Now Japan's constitution says its army is a defensive force however in their constitution it can be used offensively if it's a survival threatening situation. He knew that and inserted this on purpose in the white paper. Hes Sending China a message Taiwan gives China a huge advantage over Japan in a conflict and they know it.

You guys don't actually think if China invaded Taiwan the US would do anything do you? Especially now, with China Joe at the helm? And if the US doesn't act, the rest of the world sure as hell won't.

The WW3 doom porn is always wrong.

If the US attacks Syria, it'll be WW3 because Russia will respond. WRONG. We attacked Syria twice directly, and have been operating in their territory for years.

When we killed the Iranian general, OMG WW3 RUSSIA WILL BACK IRAN. Wrong. Nothing happened.

If China invades Taiwan, we will bitch and moan and impose token economic sanctions, but nothing too serious because we're so dependent on cheap goods from China, and we will roll over and take it.

a reply to: penroc3

Yep. Live-fire SLBM. Just one missile.

Can you imagine 15-20 of those things headed at ya???

a reply to: face23785

Why do you think its doom porn? wouldn't be a big deal to be honest Shina cant take Taiwan. currently, there is 3 aircraft carriers in Taiwan straight. You bought into China propaganda.

Heres the reality of Taiwan it has never been controlled by the CCP. It is an independent democracy US law states we our obligated to assist Taiwan. Congress passed a law called H.R.2479 - Taiwan Relations Act. It requires the us military to provide support for Taiwan. This is why the US has advisors in Taiwan Not to mention US arms sales. They just purchased 240 F16s. This is a huge threat for China as they may have a larger airforce but most of it is severely outdated. These F16s will be armed with Harpoon missiles meaning it is unlikely any ship will get near Taiwan. China Support for Taiwan isnt a major deal for the US because If Taiwan is invaded The navy just has to take a defensive nature.

China doesn't want a full coalition to form over Taiwan think of all the countries that support Taiwan for example french British, Philippines, India, Australia, Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea. Not a coalition they would want to have happened under any circumstances. So world war 3 is very unlikely a reginal conflict however is possible.

a reply to: dragonridr

I think you need to re-read my post. It had absolutely nothing to do with whether China had the capability to take Taiwan.

I don't read Chinese propaganda and I am no fan of China. Check your assumptions. The fact is the major nuclear powers will avoid war with each other at all costs, which is precisely why Russia did nothing we when attacked one of their major allies. The US is not going to go to war with China over Taiwan.

a reply to: face23785

We might not for Taiwan but we would for Korea or Japan all day.

The us is piviting to that area of the world and i think China will be seeing allot more freedom of movment in waters they claim are theirs.

China is a bully and like all bullies they are loud, steal stuff, deal drugs, and can be dangerous. To down play China would be a big mistake.

they might not have the battle tested troops and tactics we have but they are willing to throw conscripted young men into the hail of bullets and bombs.

I think i now understand China's ghost cities, that is if you didn't know, all these cities completely built and set up utility wise but NO ONE lives in them and there are MILLIONS of new homes just waiting for people to move in.

China has wanted to wipe all its perceived undesirable past and the towns and villages are bulldozed and crappy apartment buildings where the walls are made of concrete mixed with ramen instead of rocks or using rebar.

maybe they know they have homes further inland all ready for them so its no big deal i9f we wipe out their cities and factories because there is a copy a few 100 KM away.

If you want to see what China would do in a ground war look at the Korean war, they sent wave after wave of men and sometimes the man behind you would have to pick up a dead mans gun because he didn't have one. Gives the idea of the meat grinder' an awful truth

a reply to: penroc3

I was in no way downplaying China, and I agree that we would likely defend SK or Japan. I absolutely agree we need to stand up to China. We should have been doing so for years now but we have had distracted leaders like Bush with his War on Terror or weak leaders like Obama with his America Last approach and trying to kiss everyone's ass. Like you said, China is a bully. Appeasing bullies doesn't work. Same reason it isn't working with Iran.