U.S. Pacific intel chief: Coming Chinese attack on Taiwan could target other nations

originally posted by: LanceCorvette
a reply to: Nunyabizisit

China can win any land battle just through sheer numbers - we don't have a million army guys to pit against their 5 or 10 million army guys.

Heck , the number of people they can throw at us, they wouldn't even need guns.

We wouldn't need, or even want, a single ground combatant for a target that large.

Only needed when enemy is hiding nowadays.

originally posted by: Nunyabizisit

originally posted by: LanceCorvette
a reply to: Nunyabizisit

China can win any land battle just through sheer numbers - we don't have a million army guys to pit against their 5 or 10 million army guys.

Heck , the number of people they can throw at us, they wouldn't even need guns.

We wouldn't need, or even want, a single ground combatant for a target that large.

Only needed when enemy is hiding nowadays.

The plan for the Chinese should the CCP fail to liberalise and become more aggressive was always contain, naval blockade etc

But that’s not so certain anymore

There are huge problems some people just don’t like to admit to

Here is a very good informative Discussion on the problems ahead



Also

a reply to: TritonTaranis

We have things CCP cannot defend against.

Or even see.

In sufficient quantity.

In the area.

They have very little that can hurt us.

Like Iraqi tank shells bouncing off American tanks.



I'm going to but out now.

Temptation to say too much is strong.

Leave with this thought.

I may be one of the biggest CCP haters here.

For very good, and specific reasons.

Other gentleman is likely one of the most knowledgeable military guys here.

Both are saying exactly the same thing.

Poor target for doom porn.

Unless you are CCP.

Then should be very afraid of how such an attack would turn out.

People often ask how a "defensive" system can be considered "offensive.

BTW...I never worked in the defense and space industry ever! Really, not EVER! So I have no idea what talking about. Thus, you can just ignore me.

So, how could this ever be?

Back in the 80's, President Reagan came up with the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). Ultimately, it was the demise of the Soviet Union. Nobody knew it then, but that's what it was. Why?

SDI meant that Russia could fire missiles at the US and we could shoot them down (real or imagined), and the US could fire missiles back at Russia with near immunity. Folks, Russia freaked out about this, and it ultimately collapsed their entire economy. Why? Because the age-old MAD doctrine had ben disrupted (from Russia's perspective). The US had literally "spent" Russia into oblivion.

China was just a "puppy" then.

Imagine China now. Despite Jao Bai-Dan, they're not going to take on the US military! Reagan was president nearly 40 years ago, and if anyone thinks weapons system haven't improve in that time, well, they're foolish!

So China is going to send their entire eastern fleet out to attack Taiwan, and there's only a few US warships, along with the Taiwan Navy, to defend the attack.

The US is going to get killed, right? RIGHT???

I rest my case.

originally posted by: Nunyabizisit
a reply to: TritonTaranis

We have things CCP cannot defend against.

Or even see.

In sufficient quantity.

In the area.

They have very little that can hurt us.

Like Iraqi tank shells bouncing off American tanks.



I'm going to but out now.

Temptation to say too much is strong.

Leave with this thought.

I may be one of the biggest CCP haters here.

For very good, and specific reasons.

Other gentleman is likely one of the most knowledgeable military guys here.

Both are saying exactly the same thing.

Poor target for doom porn.

Unless you are CCP.

Then should be very afraid of how such an attack would turn out.

So basically… We have a secret weapon nobody can defend against… so we don’t need to worry

Absolutely bonkers

a reply to: TritonTaranis

I am wary of reading too much into assessments that align with my views. Yet war planners are haunted by the unaddressed flaws in War Plan Orange. Under that plan, the following problem is left unresolved: The USN sailing across the Pacific to the Philippines unhindered by Japanese airpower and submarines. Also, Japanese ground forces are already entrenched on the ground. Ultimately, Pearl Harbor, MacArthur's blunders, and the Germany First strategy sealed the Philippines's fate.

In the present, successfully defending or deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan requires having sufficient military assets and capabilities in place. For no geographical location exists in isolation. Taiwan is the potential flashpoint for a regional war.

The unspoken risk is that a conflict breaking out in Asia or elsewhere is the slide into WW3. Consider the drain on the U.S military's limited resources that the next war in Asia might bring. Moreover, Russia, Iran and North Korea might exploit the situation and enter the war on the side of Axis 2.0.

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
People often ask how a "defensive" system can be considered "offensive.

BTW...I never worked in the defense and space industry ever! Really, not EVER! So I have no idea what talking about. Thus, you can just ignore me.

So, how could this ever be?

Back in the 80's, President Reagan came up with the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). Ultimately, it was the demise of the Soviet Union. Nobody knew it then, but that's what it was. Why?

SDI meant that Russia could fire missiles at the US and we could shoot them down (real or imagined), and the US could fire missiles back at Russia with near immunity. Folks, Russia freaked out about this, and it ultimately collapsed their entire economy. Why? Because the age-old MAD doctrine had ben disrupted (from Russia's perspective). The US had literally "spent" Russia into oblivion.

China was just a "puppy" then.

Imagine China now. Despite Jao Bai-Dan, they're not going to take on the US military! Reagan was president nearly 40 years ago, and if anyone thinks weapons system haven't improve in that time, well, they're foolish!

So China is going to send their entire eastern fleet out to attack Taiwan, and there's only a few US warships, along with the Taiwan Navy, to defend the attack.

The US is going to get killed, right? RIGHT???

I rest my case.

Are you seriously suggesting the Soviet Union collapsed because the Soviets found out about Ronald Reagan’s Star Wars program, then they collapsed financially trying to build their own lol

The Soviet Union destroyed itself financially trying to keep up right

Sounds like the USA will also collapse economically trying to keep up with the CCP in every metric, within 20 years China’s economy will be 4x the size of the US economy, it’s navy probably similarly 4x the size, given the USN has produced around 5 ships to PLAN 100 ships built it might be sooner, I mean I could go on and on but I won’t, it’s just laughable to ignore the pace in which the PLA has surpassed the USN and soon if not already the US economy

BUT ITS OK WE HAVE SECRET WEAPONS?

You’re a Sleep at the wheel

originally posted by: TritonTaranis

originally posted by: Nunyabizisit
a reply to: TritonTaranis

We have things CCP cannot defend against.

Or even see.

In sufficient quantity.

In the area.

They have very little that can hurt us.

Like Iraqi tank shells bouncing off American tanks.



I'm going to but out now.

Temptation to say too much is strong.

Leave with this thought.

I may be one of the biggest CCP haters here.

For very good, and specific reasons.

Other gentleman is likely one of the most knowledgeable military guys here.

Both are saying exactly the same thing.

Poor target for doom porn.

Unless you are CCP.

Then should be very afraid of how such an attack would turn out.

So basically… We have a secret weapon nobody can defend against… so we don’t need to worry

Absolutely bonkers

We have many. In the area. In sufficient quantity.

Regional allies have much of their own.

Not all secret.

We have adequate defenses for every known and suspected CCP system.

CCP would have to be suicidal to attempt.

Not saying they won't, but extremely unlikely.

Would be absolutely catastrophic for CCP.

As in CCP would no longer exist.

Is only reason they haven't already taken Taiwan.

Don't you know, PLAN is going to sail into Puget Sound as well as San Francisco Bay and link up with ANTIFA.

Let the games begin!

a reply to: TritonTaranis

Yep..."absolutely bonkers!"

Complete fantasy!!

Now, as you sail your mighty Destroyer up to my AEGIS system equipped Cruiser while talking smack...I'll let you decide what systems you think are "absolutely bonkers", and which ones are not, and which ones are real and which are not! (as every defensive system on your entire Destroyer goes into alarm, shortly before going haywire and then going dark.) Shortly afterwards a couple of F-18 SuperHornets come screeching across your midship at Mach+ just for show, and what radars you have left are tracking just a couple F-35's which have every airborne asset you have in in the air "painted"...while at the same time all your defensive weapons officers are dealing with attack subs firing torpedoes at you from three different directions!

Your defense systems will be at 3000% duty-cycle and no one has even fired a shot yet! Your biggest worry is going to be putting out fires in your electrical systems!

So, when the "STAND DOWN" warnings come...how brave are YOU going to be???? How exactly are you going to write "Absolutely Bonkers" in your after action reports??? That, I'd like to see!

My friend, you have no idea!

a reply to: TritonTaranis

Are you seriously suggesting the Soviet Union collapsed because the Soviets found out about Ronald Reagan’s Star Wars program, then they collapsed financially trying to build their own lol

Yeah, as a matter of fact, I am! Maybe go do some research, bro! It was an expensive game, but that's exactly what it was...a double dog dare, with the Soviet Union. The United States literally spent the Soviet Union into collapse and ruin over military spending and paranoia.

Seriously, before you start making stands like you have, you might consider going back and researching some actual real-life history!

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

Space is a long way away for something to fall to Earth or the ocean on a very specific and deliberate trajectory...but it doesn’t take that long to get down. Some people believe tungsten rods that are not going to melt with all the friction in the air because it would not reach the melting point of tungsten. But tungsten is awfully expensive.

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
a reply to: TritonTaranis

Yep..."absolutely bonkers!"

Complete fantasy!!

Now, as you sail your mighty Destroyer up to my AEGIS system equipped Cruiser while talking smack...I'll let you decide what systems you think are "absolutely bonkers", and which ones are not, and which ones are real and which are not! (as every defensive system on your entire Destroyer goes into alarm, shortly before going haywire and then going dark.) Shortly afterwards a couple of F-18 SuperHornets come screeching across your midship at Mach+ just for show, and what radars you have left are tracking just a couple F-35's which have every airborne asset you have in in the air "painted"...while at the same time all your defensive weapons officers are dealing with attack subs firing torpedoes at you from three different directions!

Your defense systems will be at 3000% duty-cycle and no one has even fired a shot yet! Your biggest worry is going to be putting out fires in your electrical systems!

So, when the "STAND DOWN" warnings come...how brave are YOU going to be???? How exactly are you going to write "Absolutely Bonkers" in your after action reports??? That, I'd like to see!

My friend, you have no idea!

And that doesn't even begin to consider U.S. assets in Japan Or DG, either of which could likely handle entire CCP on their own, without ANY naval assets.

Then add U.S. assets quickly deployable from Hawaii, Alaska, and mainland.

Then add U.S. produced gear in Taiwan, South Korea, and others, and you will start to get the idea.

Plus stuff from Europe & ME deployable in 72 hours, if needed for mop up, with battle ready gear already loaded on ships in the region. For entire divisions.

originally posted by: LanceCorvette
a reply to: Nunyabizisit

China can win any land battle just through sheer numbers - we don't have a million army guys to pit against their 5 or 10 million army guys.

Heck , the number of people they can throw at us, they wouldn't even need guns.

Their guns wouldn't help anyway.

Way out of range.

Would be smarter to arm them with laser pointers.

At least they 'could' be a little effective.

a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

Some people display the tendency to assume that the decision-makers and the events they trigger are rational. In short, Germany (WW1/WW2), Japan (WW2), Confederacy (the American Civil War), and the United States (Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam) lacked strategic competence. Nor did that handicap prevent Germany and Japan from conquering vast tracts of real estate globally in the last world war. But, of course, the common denominator is that tactical and operational brilliance, coupled with lousy or no strategy is a war losing ticket.

In a nutshell, a nuclear deterrent isn't a magic bullet. Specifically, what happens if that method fails to deter China from invading Taiwan? If a nuclear [weapons] exchange doesn't lead to a cease-fire? Lastly, if neither side opts to create mushroom clouds, what are the follow on events?

a reply to: xpert11

Very true.

However, what is the ratio of strategic incompetence to tactical superiority? It has been demonstrated time and time again.

To your question of, what if there is no ceasefire, and what are the follow on events? I think we both know this answer. BUT, even though paralyzing bureaucracy may prevail, at least humanity doesn't perish in the process. Hence my statements to the other poster about China never invading Taiwan.

originally posted by: Flyingclaydisk
a reply to: TritonTaranis

Are you seriously suggesting the Soviet Union collapsed because the Soviets found out about Ronald Reagan’s Star Wars program, then they collapsed financially trying to build their own lol

Yeah, as a matter of fact, I am! Maybe go do some research, bro! It was an expensive game, but that's exactly what it was...a double dog dare, with the Soviet Union. The United States literally spent the Soviet Union into collapse and ruin over military spending and paranoia.

Seriously, before you start making stands like you have, you might consider going back and researching some actual real-life history!

Oh stop it the Soviet Union collapsed because it bankrupt itself military of course not because of finding out about a space laser Star Wars program and sharks with laser beams which were gonna use to defeat the CCP now with

BUT

Does it not occur to you that the Chinese will spend/stretch the USA into a similar collapse?

You see the CCP just has to focus in one area while the US in multiple

It really isn’t going to be a case of spending China into oblivion like the Soviets, the Chinese have a rather large robust economy which unlike the Soviets is interlocked with the USA

I like your I’m alright Jack attitude and confidence but this isn’t going to be anywhere near as easy as you think

Back when it was just the Soviet Union PEER VS PEER

Now?

Potentially 3 peer in Russia China Iran

Which is why we need a refocusing of NATO

Which is why we need regional players and allies like QUAD etc etc

Just hoping it’ll go away based on Cold War II is just absolutely laughable and insane

a reply to: TritonTaranis


The U.S. currently has no peer.

Not even with CCP, Russia, Iran & North Korea COMBINED.

Though all at once would certainly be painful.

a reply to: TritonTaranis

**sigh** Okay, I'm going to bed.

Good luck with all that!

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: Flyingclaydisk

Some people display the tendency to assume that the decision-makers and the events they trigger are rational. In short, Germany (WW1/WW2), Japan (WW2), Confederacy (the American Civil War), and the United States (Iraq, Afghanistan and Vietnam) lacked strategic competence. Nor did that handicap prevent Germany and Japan from conquering vast tracts of real estate globally in the last world war. But, of course, the common denominator is that tactical and operational brilliance, coupled with lousy or no strategy is a war losing ticket.

In a nutshell, a nuclear deterrent isn't a magic bullet. Specifically, what happens if that method fails to deter China from invading Taiwan? If a nuclear [weapons] exchange doesn't lead to a cease-fire? Lastly, if neither side opts to create mushroom clouds, what are the follow on events?

I agree a nuke isn’t a magic bullet like some seem to think there is still a lot to consider

The way I see it is this

The US would only use a nuclear weapon in defence of the homeland, not as a deterrent to stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in a “unification effort”

Should the US lob a nuke at an invading army in the Taiwan straights it would no doubt get a retaliatory response and probably render Taiwan uninhabitable anyway

So IMO, the Chinese know if they can capture Taiwan quick enough that the USN cannot respond, the US is likely to not respond militarily at all, possibly?

And if they do, they’ll take those losses all day long

Unless the USN in the region can STOP the invasion and sink the entire fleet

Which what I’m seeing is they can’t ITS TOO LATE

To outnumbered

And most likely the PLA will annihilate US bases in the region with massive saturation attacks rendering them out of action, to which the USN will need to be extremely busy a get the engineers to make new ones outside the range of the majority of PLA range

So again by then, it’s likely a successful invasion, time is key here, that’s the whole point planners aren’t trying to convey here

And the fact they’re highlighting that suggest if China invades successful we’re not entertaining the idea of retaking the island and liberating it, only defending

But therein lays the next problem

Because geopolitically… the fall out from that perceived US defeat or failure to defend her ally and democracy, will completely capitulate china’s standing in that region and the world, the status quo would have been changed by force massive confidence damage in US

It’s that chain of events afterwards that will do far more damage to US hegemony and standing in the world which could see the US collapse much in the same way as the USSR

Because It would IMO put the belt and road initiative on steroids, as the world starts seeing a weakling USA militarily and politically, which is undoubtedly the biggest threat to the US probably in its history, the US has never had such a powerful peer or Great power challenge to contend with such as this, the CCP are far more durable than the Soviet Union and so is the US, but the CCP are challenging successfully in far more domains the Soviets could ever dream of and soon projected to massively exceed

All I’m saying is it’s a far bigger deal and challenge than people seemingly on here realise, and Taiwan is far more strategically important for the USA than people realise, and those advantages people seem to think the superiority is still there or the gap is wide, are gone, and they disappeared in a insanely short amount of time, but it is also what it is to the CCP as it is to the USA, so that make Taiwan all the more a likely tinderbox and flashpoint for a wider conflict IMO

Basically the CCP are focusing their strengths and numbers into a significantly strategically important, possibly thee most strategically important area of the world right now, and if they the CCP can muscle the US out there then the deck of cards is going to collapse