Corona Virus Updates Part 6

originally posted by: tennisdawg
Vaccines will not work. I repeat.... Vaccines will not work. The only thing we can do is a repeating pattern of social distancing, opening back up slowly, shutting down again, social distancing, opening back up slowly, shutting down, etc.

Who are you? And why should we believe you?

originally posted by: MrRCflying
So, yes, 68,587 confirmed deaths due to covid19 in the last 60 days.

No. The majority of those deaths are not from COVID. PERIOD.

You are being lied to... and you are lapping it up.

Listening to the mayor of Valdosta today on the way into work, he was pissed he just found out that the fed was incentivizing hospitals to over report to the tune of 19k per diagnosis and 35k per ventilator case, after denying all elective surgeries where hospitals get most of their revenue from.

Taking him at his word (I know in one of the many threads here it was also reported)... how can anyone claim our reported numbers are true, on top of what the now buried early antibody returns showed that many many more have already been exposed shook it off and continued about their life.

the death ratio at this point is wildly inflated by almost every conceivable measure, and dont even get me on the models we dont know with any certainty how many people have already been infected and gone about their life (see also antibody test) so ANY model is flawed from the word go.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: MrRCflying
So, yes, 68,587 confirmed deaths due to covid19 in the last 60 days.

No. The majority of those deaths are not from COVID. PERIOD.

You are being lied to... and you are lapping it up.

Proof? I told you no cheating.

You accused me of pulling numbers, I showed you the data. Don't belive it if you don't want to, but if you are going to tell me that, you need to back it up with proof.

Better yet, write 68,000 notes to the families and get thier opinions.

originally posted by: tennisdawg

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: MrRCflying
That 60,000 estimate keeps creeping up. First it went to 65,000, then 67,000, and is now 72,000+ but it will have to be revised upward again, as the prediction model is not matching reality.

What's happening is that people aren't wearing masks, disinfecting, and social distancing. That, and it's now hitting the areas with less health care (poorer workers and now factories and prisons.)

It has a large effect on the rate of spread. One person can take it home to their family and their family then takes it throughout the community. In a number of cases, the affected person picks it up at a crowded work area (meat packing plant) in one county but takes it home to another county where they live.

That's what's going on in Amarillo, Texas where the Feds are going in to try and stop the spread.

I don't disagree with your statements at all.

Still, I don't see the 60,000 deaths projections being real in any way. It was dropped to that for public consumption. I believe they knew the 100 - 240k number was realistic, but based on public reaction it was decided to throw out a lower number and bump that number up over time, so it was not as much of a shock.

I do think it is entirely possible, that we could reach an even higher number of deaths because of the reasons you stated.

I would disagree, having looked at the models. Remember, the initial range of the R0 number was all over the place. As we got better info, the R0 number changed to quite low and then bounced back up.

The idea of "they" knowing something isn't realistic, IMHO... because the modeling was coming from a lot of different unconnected sources and many published the details of the models so that other researchers and the public could check them. If it had been some sort of coordinated effort, this wouldn't have happened.

I agree, however, that we're going to see higher numbers. This is going to hammer the lower end of the job market in the US.

Point taken...

Since this is a conspiracy forum, let's call it my pet theory.

I don't think anyone could "know" for certainty, just too many factors. It is just my opinion that there were beliefs (which were publicly announced) that a predicted number of deaths between 100,000 and 240,000 was reasonable and likely.

We then had that projection cut by half or better to around 60,000.

Now we are beginning to see the number creep back up, to possibly 180,000 before the end of summer. Pretty much the average of the 2, midline.

It just seems suspect to me at least, the predicted number was dropped so low, now it is slowly moving back toward that midline.

I could be way off base here, who knows, but I believe there was a high level of confidence in the 100 - 240k number. Maybe, just maybe the 60k number was thrown out after the fact to try and quell fears, and now that things are north of that, they are slowly upping the numbers back towards that original midline.

Either way, it has not been good, it will continue to not be good for some time yet. Nothing like we have ever seen, and hopefully when it is all said and done, we will never see anything like it again.

MrRCFlying,

I have followed all of your posts closely. Your theory is actually pretty accurate as far as I can tell. Based on available data, nothing should have compelled them to drop the death total to 60,000 at that time. If anything, they should have been raising it.

I only jumped in to say that the information I have seen will put us closer to 500,000 deaths in the USA alone by the end of this year. Everyone is forgetting that this will cycle through every human 3 times. That is by design. We are not even through the first cycle, and likely won't be until late September - early October.

Keep your eyes out for what happens to the asymptomatic carriers from the first cycle once the 2nd cycle starts up. This is going to continue to get worse. We are looking at a 2 year minimum for all 3 cycles to complete.

Vaccines will not work. I repeat.... Vaccines will not work. The only thing we can do is a repeating pattern of social distancing, opening back up slowly, shutting down again, social distancing, opening back up slowly, shutting down, etc.

Good to hear from you TD. No offence, but I hope you are wrong. I have a feeling you may be more correct than most of us would like to believe though.

Happy anti-American news media is citing a leaked White House document showing 3000 coronavirus deaths a day by June.

www.cnn.com...

Looks like the low IQ media took the bait again! Works every time with those imbeciles.

originally posted by: MrRCflying
If you recall in some of my previous posts, I have been comparing the actual death counts on a daily basis to the prediction models done by the IHME.

Three times, I said the prediction numbers would increase, because they were not matching up. Three times, they did increase. Again, it will have to be revised upwards. The IHME prediction model was last updated on 4/29, and will go up again.

The prediction will need to be moved up quite significantly once again. The US death toll as of 5/3 was 68,598. According to the IHME prediction we should not be at that level until 5/11. So the US is a full 7 days ahead of the prediction.

Now we have Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, saying we may have a persistent spread throught the summer with approx. 1000 deaths a day. I am not sure how they are measuring "summer" here, but if it is now through the end of August, that would be another 120 days, give or take.

If that is the case, the US will be looking at an additional 120,000 deaths by the end of summer, with a toal somwhere north of 180,000 deaths.

Original predicted numbers, with mitigation was somwhere between 100,000 and 240,000. Then suddenly that changed, and dropped quickly to 60,000. We blew past that 60,000 number about 2 weeks after it was made. The IHME keeps revising the numbers upwards, although at a slow rate, a little here and a little there.

I believe it is intentional, to drip feed the bad reports. The average Joe will be like "OK, we are close, things will slow down. Oh, they added a few more, not too bad, we will begin to slow down soon." Like bringing the water temperature up to boiling, just a little at a time. Desensitizes the general public, instead of the shock number of almost 200,000 deaths. It also encourages the "it's just a flu" and 'hoax' narrative. For most, it is a slow moving train wreck, and they can't wrap thier minds around the end totals. We think in the here and now, with some awareness of the immediate future, but it is hard to conseptualize the long range, even a few months out.

Almost like watching paint dry. Sometimes the color changes as it dries, but if you sit and watch, you will not notice.

With things beginning to open, and governers basically flipping the bird to the path to re-open, and scientific data concerning resurgence, it may even yet go higher.

IMHO, the mitigation has worked, and we are still on the target for the original mitigation included numbers of 100,000- 240,000. It was lowered intentionally to reduce the shock and ease people into it. I am going to keep a close eye on this for sure.

Is it still a mild case of the flu?

Update on my Aunt in Kentucky: They still maintain that she is negitive, but moved her into the Covid ward. Makes sense, not... She is doing much better however, and is now off the vent.. Still not well, but it looks like she is out of the woods, and may be on the mend.

Links to the figures and information used above:

IHME

Worldometers

Dr Gottlieb

Replying to my own post again....

Well, IHME just upped the predictions, as I said would happen. They have now increased the projected deaths from 72,000 to 134,475 by August 4th.

A higher jump in the predictions than what I was expecting.

IHME

originally posted by: MrRCflying
Replying to my own post again....

Well, IHME just upped the predictions, as I said would happen. They have now increased the projected deaths from 72,000 to 134,475 by August 4th.

A higher jump in the predictions than what I was expecting.

IHME

One thing we're (you and I) aren't taking into account is that they're fast-tracking some treatments for Covid-19. I have hopes for Remdesivir or any of the followups now in phase 2 clinical trials. It won't reduce the case loads but can drastically cut deaths.

So when a good treatment hits, we should see a crash in death rates. Let it be soon!

originally posted by: Observationalist
Update: what’s happening Inside NY hospital.

Nurse from Nevada who went over to help at NY hospitals, gives an updates on what’s going on inside NY hospitals.
Instagram Post

NY Gov. Cuomo to Sign Executive Order Allowing Medical Students to Work as Doctors

“I will be signing an Executive Order to allow medical students who were slated to graduate this spring to begin practicing now,” Cuomo wrote on Twitter. “These are extraordinary times and New York needs the help.”

Fast Tracking Medical Degrees.
Seems like a draft. I feel for these students. They didn’t sign up for this... well, at least not this way.

In a March 24 email to the Class of 2020, NYU Grossman School of Medicine said those who wish to join the healthcare workforce could start working as paid interns as soon as April, even if they had not been planning to work in the fields of internal medicine or emergency medicine

Tough call... young men and women thrown into the front lines with only their college experience to bring to the fight.
I respect them wanting to help in the fight, but I also question the wisdom of having newly trained individuals in a new and intensely stressful environment, making decisions where precious experiences is a prerequisite.

Why are they still using ventilators when it keeps being shown they make things worse?

Couldn't they switch to CPAP or simple supplemental oxygen?

a reply to: MrRCflying

originally posted by: tennisdawg

MrRCFlying,

I have followed all of your posts closely. Your theory is actually pretty accurate as far as I can tell. Based on available data, nothing should have compelled them to drop the death total to 60,000 at that time. If anything, they should have been raising it.

I only jumped in to say that the information I have seen will put us closer to 500,000 deaths in the USA alone by the end of this year. Everyone is forgetting that this will cycle through every human 3 times. That is by design. We are not even through the first cycle, and likely won't be until late September - early October.

Keep your eyes out for what happens to the asymptomatic carriers from the first cycle once the 2nd cycle starts up. This is going to continue to get worse. We are looking at a 2 year minimum for all 3 cycles to complete.

Vaccines will not work. I repeat.... Vaccines will not work. The only thing we can do is a repeating pattern of social distancing, opening back up slowly, shutting down again, social distancing, opening back up slowly, shutting down, etc.

So, what happens after the 3 cycles complete? Does the virus change, or does humanity change?

Welcome back, btw.

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: MrRCflying
Replying to my own post again....

Well, IHME just upped the predictions, as I said would happen. They have now increased the projected deaths from 72,000 to 134,475 by August 4th.

A higher jump in the predictions than what I was expecting.

IHME

One thing we're (you and I) aren't taking into account is that they're fast-tracking some treatments for Covid-19. I have hopes for Remdesivir or any of the followups now in phase 2 clinical trials. It won't reduce the case loads but can drastically cut deaths.

So when a good treatment hits, we should see a crash in death rates. Let it be soon!

Man I hope so. To me Remdesivir did not sound all that promising, might help some, which is better than none. Hopefully they can find the equivilent of an antibiotic for a virus.

originally posted by: chris_stibrany
Why are they still using ventilators when it keeps being shown they make things worse?

Couldn't they switch to CPAP or simple supplemental oxygen?

a reply to: MrRCflying

Don't know, not a doctor. I do know that my aunt was on a vent. for about 7 days. They were giving her a 50/50 chance. She is now off of it, with suplimental oxygen.

I believe she would have passeed without the vent.. So in her case, I think it helped. Others maybe not. Maybe the way it settles in the lungs is different is some cases or there are other reasons. Really not sure.

a reply to: Byrd

There's always hope

Scientists Discover Antibody That Blocks Coronavirus From Infecting Cells

originally posted by: Observationalist

Tough call... young men and women thrown into the front lines with only their college experience to bring to the fight.
I respect them wanting to help in the fight, but I also question the wisdom of having newly trained individuals in a new and intensely stressful environment, making decisions where precious experiences is a prerequisite.

Let me add a counterpoint, since I was a teaching assistant at medical school.

First... they're not quite as young as you think. They're in their mid-to-late 20's and some are older. Many are the children of physicians and medical workers and some (like my beloved personal physician) actually worked labor jobs and other jobs at lower wages to pay for their medical school.

They are young, many are resilient. It will be hard... BUT... the fact that they will be there will ease the patient load burden on everyone (including themselves.)

These are the people already doing clinical rounds with a senior physician. They're chomping at the bit to be "real doctors" and to do something other than lurk in the shadows. They'll bring new ideas and new energy.

It's risky, but I think if they volunteer to step up that it will (generally) be good all around.

originally posted by: puzzled2
a reply to: angelchemuel

Jane
Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'

So still no confirmed re-infection.

Thank you! Interesting....

Rainbows
Jane

a reply to: alphabetaone

Reference your question about Tennisdawg (TD)You don't have to believe him and niether should you place much faith in anonymous people in cyber space. However, TD, whoever he is (he has touched on this and where he is, job role too) has given out a lot of information about the virus and its impact much earlier in the thread (page 1), months ago, he also explained why he felt he should be sharing what he did and why he could. Thing is, what he shared came to be, before it came to be.

There are some threads here with links to his posts somewhere.

Whoever he is I read with interest. Some of which I consider very good 'intel'.

UPDATE

UK Armed forces rural North. As I have previously explained, my location, role, cap badge and trade are all purposely kept vague.

Been awhile since my last one, again.

Work: Life goes on with the new work routine and measures in place (all centered around hygiene and distancing), everything we can do to mitigate exposure to the virus we do throughout our location. Other than that our role remains the same although on reduced manning. Other departments on location are rotating personnel on a weekly basis whilst others are at home on standby/call. Not many people here due to our role but there are some training for various ops that have not yet been stood up, again, don't know if they will (all to help civil authority). As HMF personnel we can now get tested for the virus, we have to report to the nearest testing station like any other key worker. There have been personnel from here who have been tested (results back in 24hrs), all negative. We do have personnel who live on location self isolating in barracks. Other than that it's the same.

Home: All fit and healthy. Adjusted to the new routine and way of doing things.

Opinion: The Chinese have a lot to answer for. Getting threaders with how so many are playing politics with this situation. It's got so bad I've seen people trying to make others dislike nurses on social media. I know from my wider circle of forces mates/friends that the supply chain is good, or at least from a military point of view. What's being asked for is getting done. Case in point, PPE. Although there are issues with procurement this has not affected the supply. Going Duffy (without), short of or with surplus at civil locations (hospitals, practices, med centres etc) has been down to those organisations crappy organisation and isn't political, the army can only provide and deliver on what is asked for to where it's requested to be dropped off at. It's bollocks, it's not the forces fault or the local authorities or Governments fault. People, civvies, are not doing their job properly, simple. I'll have to take back one of my previous statements about supply, I was wrong. Waste of time getting the test done unless you think you have symptoms of the virus. Pissed off with with how some people are playing home politics and criticising everything that is done, most of those types are absolute mongtards creating nothing but division when we should be getting # done together. They should get their Lardy malingering backsides moving and do something useful and help in someway like volunteering to help in their local community instead of playing party politics, mongtards.

Zero cases again today in Aotearoa/New Zealand.
Kia kaha world.

originally posted by: Brick17
a reply to: alphabetaone
However, TD, whoever he is (he has touched on this and where he is, job role too) has given out a lot of information about the virus and its impact much earlier in the thread (page 1), months ago, he also explained why he felt he should be sharing what he did and why he could. Thing is, what he shared came to be, before it came to be.

Ummm.... no.... it didn't...

At least not yet.