Corona Virus Updates Part 6

3 new cases in Aotearoa/New Zealand today, I am unable to say whether they are all confirmed or not, the 12th day in a row of single-digit case numbers, one previous reported probable case has turned out negative. There was a significant increase in testing yesterday, with 5867 tests performed and our new total of tests in 134,570. 1476 total confirmed and probable cases in total.
Two per cent of school children are at school, she said, and early childhood education centres had recorded attendance of 4 per cent of their usual rolls.

Kia kaha world.

FYI: Important Covid-19 Treatment Findings

Hydroxychloroquine-based real world results: docs.google.com...#

originally posted by: cirrus12
And a symptom is conjunctivitis also
a reply to: angelchemuel

Yes, I have been treating a few of my clients with it.
Rainbows
Jane

Update Apr.29/20
Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Global Cases (by JHU CSSE)

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com...#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Canada *** Total= 52,865 ***
25,761-Quebec, 16,978-Ontario, 5,165-Alberta, 2,087-British Columbia,
935-Nova Scotia, 383-Saskatchewan, 275-Manitoba, 118-New Brunswick,
258-Newfoundland & Labrador, 26-Prince Edward Island,
5-Northwest Territories, 11-Yukon, 13-Grand Princess,

coronavirus.1point3acres.com... USA & Canada Updates

www.worldometers.info...

Chinese volunteers who were trying to save some of the scrubbed reports from Wuhan, by journalists that went missing, get arrested.

Chinese internet users who uploaded coronavirus memories to GitHub have been arrested

qz.com...

Chrojan Virus Update:

On 7 April 2020 I provided minimum & maximum predictions (green) of what the global numbers would be in terms of recorded infections and deaths and updated the calculations table with the actual numbers (yellow) as at 16 April 2020 & 23 April 2020 including the % deviations of predicted vs actual.

I have just added the recorded actual numbers up to 30 April 2020 as at 10am GMT. As you will see, the actual cases are close to the predicted because the % deviations and +/- cases are low. The actual number cases +/- the minimum and averaged predicted on 7 April 2020 can be seen in the 2 rightmost columns. The next update actual vs predicted will be provided on 31 May and again on 30 June. If the 30 June 2020 actual cases remain within the predicted parameter windows this will be further indication of where we are heading with this pandemic and what the actual global numbers will be come 31 Dec 2020.

As you will see from the table below the number of recorded cases on 7 April 2020 was 1411099 and total deaths was 81044. If you look at the table you will see the actual cases recorded on

16 April which were 2100064 and 136036
23 April which were 2635716 and 184066
30 April which are 3230433 and 228394 as at 10am GMT

The prediction for 30 April 2020 made on 7 April 2020 was a minimum 2908284 and maximum 3635355 cases, and deaths minimum 228014 and maximum 285018. The predicted recorded cases are only 10% off the minimum (322149 cases), and 41387 cases off the prediction average. The predicted deaths are only 0.2 % off the minimum (380 cases) and 28122 cases off the prediction average. So my calculations are close confirms that my model is far from crystal balling.

Next update 31 May.

To verify my original predictions and corrections on 8 April 2020 go to thread 5 page 360.

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: MrRCflying
Kinda sounds like Remdesivir is a flop.

The article is saying it works, kind of. Symptoms shortened to 11 days from 15, and deaths decreased to 8% from 11% in the study.

I guess some help is better than none, but IMHO it is far from what is needed. Definatley not a jump up and down moment.

Remdesivir

It acts like Tamiflu... it doesn't cure but it drastically shortens the hospital stay (severity). That will mean less pressure on hospitals, medical staff, and equipment (average hospital stay is over 10 days.)

It'll shorten the heck out of medical bills!

I saw this on the news last night, and it really seemed like doubletalk to me. "It shortens the hospital stay. Unfortunately, it didn't change mortality rate." So seriously? I don't very much care if it shortens hospital stay by two days but it doesn't change how many people die.

originally posted by: drussell41
My husband read something in the Daily Mail that children are getting hit hard with a new mutation of it.

It is rare - which likely means the children have substantial pre-existing conditions - and, more importantly, there is no proof it is caused by the virus.

But some people cannot let facts get in the way of their fear-mongering.

originally posted by: carewemust
Some form of Hydroxychloroquine-based treatment is the safest (and least expensive) way forward. Big pharma and affiliated crooks don't like HCQ, which is a good sign!

Actually, high dose IV Vitamin C is much safer, and much cheaper - and yes, much more effective at stopping the cytokine storm and bringing patients at deaths door back from the edge.

originally posted by: buddha
This on Fox news.
ER doctors now [say] 'It's interesting when I'm writing about my death report, I'm being pressured to add COVID. Why is that?

well every one knows now!
lets just hope some thing comes of this.

But doesn’t the fact that Fox are reporting it weaponise it in some way? That’s impression I get from across the pond.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: drussell41
My husband read something in the Daily Mail that children are getting hit hard with a new mutation of it.

It is rare - which likely means the children have substantial pre-existing conditions - and, more importantly, there is no proof it is caused by the virus.

But some people cannot let facts get in the way of their fear-mongering.

Err..

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: carewemust
Some form of Hydroxychloroquine-based treatment is the safest (and least expensive) way forward. Big pharma and affiliated crooks don't like HCQ, which is a good sign!

Actually, high dose IV Vitamin C is much safer, and much cheaper - and yes, much more effective at stopping the cytokine storm and bringing patients at deaths door back from the edge.

Part of the treatment (I think in Italy) was indeed high doses of vit C, among other things. Be good to how that worked out.

Update: April 30, 2020 Thursday Tokyo time: 8:00 pm

I'd like to start off with a little MIM's Street Talk. This may take place worldwide so if this stuff does happen, we'll have to make a life's adjustment to it.

1. I don't know about schools around the world but it may seem possible that will take a new turn on education at the 5th grade level. Why, classes will be structured in 3 ways, one is the local economy (education focus locally) (nothing new here, but it won't start at the junior college level. The second way of education will be nurturing the talent of the student , again at the 5th grade level. The 3 level will be a "voluntary forced education" to assure employment in ones aptitude.

2. Life WILL NOT go back to what it once was. ( I hope you all understand that ) This will vary from country to country.

3. It will be nearly impossible to leave the country you are now in unless you are politically connected/ military connected.

4. For the States, entry to another State will have to be approved. ( Transportation hubs will have special privileges )

5. Its best if possible to leave any major city. As I mentioned before, major cities will become open door prisons and that is a fact. It won't be the type that you see with bars though. Expect loss of freedom and strict curfew this coming summer in the States.

The above is my Street Talk and NOT predictions.

Update:

I mention earlier on one of my post that I'd try to make my updates a bit more international and perhaps more on "what's happening in your front yard" type of post. The reason is because: Chinese updates are rare and Japanese updates are beginning not to be of much of interest these days to what is happening to the outside world. Actually, the events in Japan (somewhat untruthful as far as reporting cases and deaths of the virus ) still hold a lot of weight. I say that because ,well, for those that follow the financial post, I posted about investing in UBE KOSAN in Ube, Yamaguchi Pref a while back. That was another one of MIM's Street Talk that panned out. So for you that buy stocks, check them out. I'll post the link here .

www3.nhk.or.jp...

1. 1732 deaths have been reported in Mexico of the virus

2. Be careful of this one: ROME — The Italian government has decreed that the data provided through an app to facilitate tracing of persons who come in close contact with someone positive for COVID-19 will be completely anonymous and that all data will be destroyed by year’s end.

3. Well, this seems like a natural occurrence : Italy's crime rate slumped 66.6% in March, thanks to a government lockdown introduced to halt the coronavirus, the interior ministry said on Wednesday.

4. Japan's Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has told ruling Liberal Democratic Party officials that he plans to extend the declaration of a state of emergency that is due to end on May 6.
For the above, if you think your state of emergency is just going to end soon, well, that just isn't going to happen.

5. For me this isn't good: The dollar fell to around ¥106.50 in Tokyo trading on Thursday.
6. The government will soon approve the anti-viral drug Remdesivir for treatment of coronavirus patients, Japan’s first such decision amid the pandemic, according to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
7. Major veterans organizations are calling on VA to explain under what circumstances VA doctors initiate discussion of hydroxychloroquine with veterans as a treatment option after an analysis of VA hospital data was published last week showing hundreds of veterans who took the drug saw no benefit for COVID-19.
8. I was wondering about this one: . More than 518 employees have tested positive for the virus as of April 15, in addition to 126 non-employees who have become infected after coming into contact with a Smithfield employee, according to the South Dakota Department of Health
9. Well, at least Trump offered a helping hand: Gleaming new tent hospitals sit empty on two suburban New York college campuses, never having treated a single coronavirus patient. Convention centers that were turned into temporary hospitals in other cities went mostly unused. And a Navy hospital ship that offered help in Manhattan is soon to depart.
10. This is the corona virus :
deterioration of the respiratory tract (upper and lower),
brain dysfunctions,
heart failure,
myocarditis,
vascular occlusion
blood clotting disorders
digestive problems
encephalitis,
kidney dysfunction,
deterioration of the liver
Guillain-Barré syndrome (a rare disorder in which the immune system of the body attacks nerves)
paralysis...
11. This is a highly contagious infection that has a relatively low mortality rate, but nation-wise, this number of 0.3% may look horrendous. The fire of the disease started burning very strongly in the countries that came late with restrictive measures. In the UK, they decided that the disease will kill those who should die, while those who should live - those people will get through it. They disregarded the fact that there were many elderly citizens with weakened health in the country," the academician said. I think there is a lot of truth to this. I really see this in Japan also. Sad, but true.
12. I've said this in my Street Talk: people will not be able to return to their habitual lifestyle after the pandemic.
13. Following the April 7 Wisconsin Democratic Primary, 52 people who worked or voted in the primary have tested positive for the coronavirus, the Associated Press reported Wednesday.


Japan update: 4-30-2020 Thursday

This is a breakdown of people who have been confirmed infected in Japan.
Tokyo 4415 people
Osaka prefecture 1625 people
Kanagawa prefecture 1006 people
Saitama prefecture 848 people
Chiba prefecture 830 people
Hokkaido 767 people Hyogo prefecture 646 people
Fukuoka prefecture 640 people
Aichi prefecture 486 people
Kyoto prefecture 320 people
Ishikawa prefecture 251 people
Toyama prefecture 197 people
Ibaraki prefecture 163 people
Hiroshima prefecture 155 people
Gifu prefecture 149 people
Gunma prefecture 146 people
Okinawa prefecture 142 People (this is bad )
Fukui prefecture 122 people
Shiga prefecture 95 people
Miyagi prefecture 88 people
Nara prefecture 83 people
Niigata prefecture 75 people
Kochi prefecture 74 people
Fukushima prefecture 72 people
Shizuoka prefecture 72 people
Yamagata prefecture has 68 people
Nagano prefecture has 66 people
Oita prefecture has 60 people
Wakayama prefecture has 60 people
Tochigi prefecture has 55 people
Yamanashi prefecture has 53 people
Ehime prefecture has 47 people
Kumamoto prefecture has 47 people
Mie prefecture 45 people
Saga prefecture 41 people
Yamaguchi prefecture 32 people
Kagawa prefecture 28 people
Aomori prefecture 26 people
Shimane prefecture has 23 people
Okayama prefecture has 23 people
Nagasaki prefecture has 17 people
Miyazaki prefecture has 17 people
Akita prefecture has 16 people
Kagoshima prefecture has 10 people
Tokushima prefecture has 5 people
Tottori prefecture has 3 people.


According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, by the 30th, the number of seriously ill persons
was 308 infected in Japan
The cases are growing .

Thanks for reading my updates.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: drussell41
My husband read something in the Daily Mail that children are getting hit hard with a new mutation of it.

It is rare - which likely means the children have substantial pre-existing conditions - and, more importantly, there is no proof it is caused by the virus.

But some people cannot let facts get in the way of their fear-mongering.

Are you accusing me or the Daily Mail of fearmongering? Did you even run down and read the Daily Mail article? I didn't because I refuse to remove adblocker. I simply posted the info so that others could research it further if they wished.

www.nbcnewyork.com...

Interesting story developing in NYC

Dozens of bodies being found in un refrigerated uhauls

a reply to: drussell41

Well.. Its important though.

Shortening hospital stays in areas dealing with high or max occupancy is a good thing. That said, RdRPs inhibitors (like HCQ+Zinc & Remdesivir) work at their absolute best when given early. Though, they can halt further replication too, thus shortening hospital stays in patients where it might be a bit further along.

Dr. Yadegar from Cedars-Sinai on later stage protocols & treatment:



Its unlikely that the kids are necessarily getting hit hard with "new mutations" as well, though many, many viruses do indeed constantly mutate. Many more signs point to rare(r) instances of cytokine storms, which would make sense given some of the info that has been coming out all along about the structure of the virus itself.

originally posted by: drussell41
Did you even run down and read the Daily Mail article? I didn't because I refuse to remove adblocker. I simply posted the info so that others could research it further if they wished.

I went to Daily Mail and looked for the article you mentioned but didn't see it, did you post a link? I found the article below about deaths in the US "start rising faster again with two consecutive days of more than 2,000 deaths" though, and it seems relevant, so I'll post the link, and the graph so you can see it without having to visit the website:

After unrealistic looking downward drops in deaths on 4/26 and 4/27, the deaths in the US have jumped way back up on 4/28 and 4/29 though not as high as the previous peak levels. But I think there must be something going on in the reporting causing these mid-week spikes. I doubt the actual daily death rates jump up and down by this large a magnitude, as seen here, though the total numbers may be OK and the rolling averages should help smooth the data:

US coronavirus deaths pass Trump's 'best case' scenario of 60,000 and start rising faster again with two consecutive days of more than 2,000 deaths

I suspect there's some kind of timing issue in how the deaths are getting reported, and there seems to be a roughly weekly pattern to the peaks and valleys.

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
Financial Times Graphs, more at the link.
Some were updated earlier than usual.

There is something odd about these financial times graphs, at least for the US curve. The daily deaths in the US are very "spikey" and a 7 day rolling average smooths them out a little, but not as much as that graph shows for the US, which looks very smooth.

Here's the data from ourworldindata.org plotted as daily deaths, and 7 day rolling average. The start and end dates may be different to the FT example, so I'm only comparing the overall shapes of the graphs. The 7 day average graph below, and the Financial Times 7-day average graph shouldn't have completely different shapes, but they do, which seems odd. See how the 7-day average graph below is not so smooth? But both 7 day averages were hovering in the vicinity of 2000 deaths per day so at least that much is consistent.

COVID-19 Deaths in US - Daily


COVID-19 Deaths in US - 7-Day rolling Average

a reply to: Arbitrageur

As far as I can tell, there is little info on if numbers are from dates when the report is filed, or the actual date of death itself.

I think we look at the former case quite a bit, just due to that "spikiness." Makes it tricky.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: drussell41
Did you even run down and read the Daily Mail article? I didn't because I refuse to remove adblocker. I simply posted the info so that others could research it further if they wished.

I went to Daily Mail and looked for the article you mentioned but didn't see it, did you post a link? I found the article below about deaths in the US "start rising faster again with two consecutive days of more than 2,000 deaths" though, and it seems relevant, so I'll post the link, and the graph so you can see it without having to visit the website:

After unrealistic looking downward drops in deaths on 4/26 and 4/27, the deaths in the US have jumped way back up on 4/28 and 4/29 though not as high as the previous peak levels. But I think there must be something going on in the reporting causing these mid-week spikes. I doubt the actual daily death rates jump up and down by this large a magnitude, as seen here, though the total numbers may be OK and the rolling averages should help smooth the data:

US coronavirus deaths pass Trump's 'best case' scenario of 60,000 and start rising faster again with two consecutive days of more than 2,000 deaths

I suspect there's some kind of timing issue in how the deaths are getting reported, and there seems to be a roughly weekly pattern to the peaks and valleys.

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
Financial Times Graphs, more at the link.
Some were updated earlier than usual.

There is something odd about these financial times graphs, at least for the US curve. The daily deaths in the US are very "spikey" and a 7 day rolling average smooths them out a little, but not as much as that graph shows for the US, which looks very smooth.

Here's the data from ourworldindata.org plotted as daily deaths, and 7 day rolling average. The start and end dates may be different to the FT example, so I'm only comparing the overall shapes of the graphs. The 7 day average graph below, and the Financial Times 7-day average graph shouldn't have completely different shapes, but they do, which seems odd. See how the 7-day average graph below is not so smooth? But both 7 day averages were hovering in the vicinity of 2000 deaths per day so at least that much is consistent.

COVID-19 Deaths in US - Daily

COVID-19 Deaths in US - 7-Day rolling Average

No. Let me repeat: I did not run this down because I won't remove adblocker. Cripes. I'll not post anything again. What a hassle. The post was just meant as an interesting breadcrumb, not definitive proof or evidence of anything.

Numbers from around the world are taken from Worldometers for April 30th.

Spain - Pop: 44.6 M
239,639 Positive tests…….. or 1 out of 195 Spaniards
10.24% Deaths

Italy - Pop: 60.4 M
205,463 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 294 Italians
13.61 % Deaths

UK – Pop: 66.6 M
171,253 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 389 UKers
15.63 % Deaths

France – Pop: 67.0 M
166,420 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 403 French
14.47 % Deaths

Sweden – Pop: 10.2 M
21,092 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 485 Swedes
12.26 % Deaths

Denmark – Pop: 5.8 M
9,158 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 633 Danes
4.93 % Deaths

US - Pop: 330 M
1,073,834 Positive tests.... or 1 out of 307 Americans
5.79% Deaths

US death rates (2017):
1. Heart Disease …………….…………647,457 annual or 1,773 daily average
2. Cancer ……………………..……….….599,108 annual or 1,641 daily average
3. Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936 annual or 465 daily average
7. Diabetes:………………………………….83,564 annual or 228 daily average

COVID-19 ………………………………………. 62,274(61 Day) or 1020 daily average


*** SURPASSED *****

8. Influenza and Pneumonia …………55,562 annual or 152 daily average
9. Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis:..50,633 annual or 138 daily average
10. Intentional self-harm (suicide):..47,173 annual or 129 daily average
X. Auto accidents ………………….………37,461 annual or 102 daily average
X. H1N1 2009 ESTIMATED (8,868 – 18,638) for 1 year or 24 – 50 daily average