Corona Virus Updates Part 6

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: MrRCflying
Death prediction model for the US revised upwards again.

Two weeks ago the IHME prediction model was for approx. 80,000 deaths in the US, then last week it was revised down to 60,000.

I have been watching the actual numbers against the model and we have been 3,000+ deaths ahead of the predicted curve. I figured at some point the model would have to be updated. It was updated last night, and is now back up to an estimate of 65,000+ deaths.

Even looking at the data from yesterday, we are still 2,000+ higher than the predicted for 4/21. I would expect it to be revised upwards again in a few days, closer to 70,000.

Also, the mid line (predicted numbers) are not centered in the "area of uncertainty" zone on the graph. I am not sure why this is. Maybe it is just the way they calculate, maybe they are trying to show confidence in lower overall numbers. I would think the mid line would be in the center of the uncertainty zone, making an average between high an low. If that is the case, the mid line should be somewhere near 85,000.

We are not really seeing a decline in death rate in the US. It has kind of hit a plateau, and riding there for about 2 weeks now.

covid19.healthdata.org...

Yes, I am replying to my own post.

As I predicted in this previous post, IHME has once again raised the predicted total death number for the US.

It has now gone from 65,000 to 67,641.

Looking at the actual vs. predicted, they are still lagging by 1,300+ for the day (4/22).

I will keep track of this, but I once again believe that number will be revised upwards to over 70,000 in the next few days.

Replying to my own post again.

As I had preticted, the total death prediction in the US has gone up once again.

So in about a weeks time we have gone from a predicted total of about 60,000, to 65,000, to 67,641, and now to 74,073. That is over a 23% increase in death preditiction in just over a week.

Actual numbers still slightly ahead of the predicted curve, by about 600.

However, they are now putting the resource peak (hospital beds, vents. etc..) at April 21. Originally they were saying peak was to be near Easter, April 12-14. So peak resource use was about a week later than anticipated, and we know that the deaths follow behind the hospitalizations, and resource use. I think we will see another spike in deaths this week unfortinately.

covid19.healthdata.org...

originally posted by: Observationalist
a reply to: Byrd

Why post this? Not peer reviewed? If a potential cure is not peer reviewed and posted here it’s tossed out and not worth considering.

Ah. I see that you missed my initial statements about what I was doing. I'm pulling papers from the medical and scientific publishing queues. These are papers that have been accepted as possibly being publishable (they're called "preprints"), pending peer review and so forth. Some have been reviewed, some are pending review, some are in the process of being reviewed.

Yet you post a hypothetical fear based scenario and you want us to consider it.

Ah. I see you skimmed over the post, perhaps? It's a GIS analyst ...well, analyzing captured data. There's no hypothetical about it and it's just data.

Data can't be fearful. It's just numbers.

I understand that you're alarmed and possibly overwhelmed with the information (I don't post and comment on most of them. While "Ivermectin Adjuvant to Hydroxychloroquin and Azithromycine in COVID19 Patients" is interesting, there's not enough there for ATS readership to relate to or dig into (and frankly, explaining all that is more than I want to take the time for.) When the information seems to be too overwhelming, people often find it useful to step away and take a deep breath.

Be at peace. We'll get through this, but it won't be quick.

originally posted by: waftist
Thought this was interesting about Sweden Herd Immunity Approach compared to Denmark. My cousin was just touting how Sweden did the right thing by not quarantining and allowing herd immunity to occur...well....

(snippage of data showing that Sweden's outcome was very poorfor space)

Perhaps this virus is just too unique to respond to herd immunization efforts

I would put it down to the difference between the average person's (or average politician's) understanding of "herd immunity" and the way anyone who's had courses in epidemiology understands "herd immunity."

Herd immunity isn't gotten by "let it sweep through once and then we're all golden." Repeated pandemics and epidemics of last century should have told them this (for example, the multiple polio epidemics, which I remember rather vividly. Three of my friends were crippled by polio.)) Herd immunity is created by repeated exposures.

The "once through and done" can create other problems as well... the disease doesn't hit everyone in the same 2 week (or one month) period. Yes, it's got an incubation period of 14 days, but that's kind of an average. it could hit someone and start ravaging them within a few days or it could hit another person and be subclinical for a month and a half (as we know from some data,) And each of those people are shedding virus; the one with the long incubation period is shedding it for much longer and infecting people later (rather than earlier.)

Not sure what will happen here in Australia. Could be a second wave and more lockdowns, alternately we might be able to keep numbers low, or if very lucky, eradicate covid.

I do think that if the US economy fails, we will all fall with you.

Pandemic And Economic Collapse: The Next 60 Days

www.alt-market.com...

'The Food Supply Chain Is Breaking.' Tyson Foods Warns of Meat Shortage as Plants Close Due to COVID-19

time.com...

originally posted by: MrRCflying
As I had preticted, the total death prediction in the US has gone up once again.

So in about a weeks time we have gone from a predicted total of about 60,000, to 65,000, to 67,641, and now to 74,073. That is over a 23% increase in death prediction in just over a week.

Actual numbers still slightly ahead of the predicted curve, by about 600.

However, they are now putting the resource peak (hospital beds, vents. etc..) at April 21. Originally they were saying peak was to be near Easter, April 12-14. So peak resource use was about a week later than anticipated, and we know that the deaths follow behind the hospitalizations, and resource use. I think we will see another spike in deaths this week unfortinately.

covid19.healthdata.org...

Your model has been a reasonably good fit... I think you're right that we'll see deaths spike and a new spike again in a few weeks.

Sending good mojo for your aunt. I hope she responds well to the treatment.

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: MrRCflying
As I had preticted, the total death prediction in the US has gone up once again.

So in about a weeks time we have gone from a predicted total of about 60,000, to 65,000, to 67,641, and now to 74,073. That is over a 23% increase in death prediction in just over a week.

Actual numbers still slightly ahead of the predicted curve, by about 600.

However, they are now putting the resource peak (hospital beds, vents. etc..) at April 21. Originally they were saying peak was to be near Easter, April 12-14. So peak resource use was about a week later than anticipated, and we know that the deaths follow behind the hospitalizations, and resource use. I think we will see another spike in deaths this week unfortinately.

covid19.healthdata.org...

Your model has been a reasonably good fit... I think you're right that we'll see deaths spike and a new spike again in a few weeks.

Sending good mojo for your aunt. I hope she responds well to the treatment.

Thank you. I am not sure of the treatment they are using. Since tests came back negative, I am not sure they are doing much more than supportive care. I don't believe the tests though. Double pneumonia, dificult/painful breathing, cough, etc... Right now, what else could it be?

Doing some more more numbers. Antibody tests in NYS so far are showing an average infection rate of 14.9%. With the city being almost at 25%, and upstate mostly under 4%.

We know that densley populated areas are hardest hit. The ruarul areas, not as bad. So for the sake of argument, let's give the the total US population a 5% infection rate.

US population, 323 million.

5% would be 16,150,000 infected, and that low compared to what it would be without mitigation. Way low. Some models were putting total infection percentages at 50-70% of the population.

Mortality rate for NYS based on antibody test precentage, is about .5%.

.5% death rate gives us 80,750. Pretty close to the latest official prediction, about 6,000 higher.

However, if other states and areas are just lagging behind, and with the fast re-opening of some states, the infection percentage for the US as a whole is 10%. We are talking 32,300,000 infections total, and 161,500 deaths.

I think with lossening restrictions early in some areas, the second number is the more likely. Maybe not quite that high, but north of 100,000.

Confirmed number of infections right now are just over 1 million. We are way behind on testing.

a reply to: MonkeyBalls2

Dumb question (thats probably already been asked)... Why do some countries, such as the UK, have N/A for 'Total Recovered'?

originally posted by: primalfractal
a reply to: CrazeeWorld777
Because SARS 2 can kill T cells, my first thought was of autoimmune diseases and HIV, which causes inflammation by killing T cells. Hopefully not.

Probably not - especially since HIV doesn't either.

SARS-Cov-2 is not the first fake rodeo being run by fascist Fauci the Fraudulent.

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
Because non-peer reviewed information about possible transmission of the Virus isn't dangerous.

Not dangerous? Fear-mongering is not dangerous?

Ok.

originally posted by: cirrus12
Fouchier then proceeded to play a version of telephone: he would take the virus from the first ferret and infect a second, then take the mutated virus from the second ferret and infect a third, and so on.

Holy crap, that's crazy enough, but then this:

originally posted by: cirrus12
Fouchier had done his work in BSL-2 labs, which are intended for pathogens such as staph, of moderate severity, rather than BSL-4, which are intended for Ebola and similar viruses.

Just terrifying! It's a self fulfilling prophecy; They create a pandemic while trying to prevent one. Reminds me the circular tragic irony in the pandemic movie Twelve Monkeys. Wonder if it took twelve ferrets to reach C19.

If there's aliens up there, they'll be looking down at what Fouchier did and where he did it and patting themselves on the back, saying "Good decision not to make contact with this lot - maybe tighten the quarantine zone?"

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
Because non-peer reviewed information about possible transmission of the Virus isn't dangerous.

Not dangerous? Fear-mongering is not dangerous?

Ok.

Fascinating article and individual! Only had time to skim it, but looking forward to giving it more time. Thanks!

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: primalfractal
a reply to: MrRCflying

Really hope your aunt makes it through, sending prayers and best wishes to her, yourself and family.

Thank you. I have not heard anything this moring. As of last night they were giving her 50/50 chances. I am not sure if they tried to remove fluid from her lungs or not.

I was thinking last night. This makes 5 people I know that have had this crap. 2 confirmed, 3 unconfirmed but I don't see how it could be anything but.

3 have made full recovery. One has recovered, but had a stroke and is now home on Hospice care, and my aunt in the hospital not doing good.

Best wishes for your Aunt pulling through!

a reply to: McGinty

I think it's because that information isn't officially collected, or disclosed, so its 'Not Available'.

As for the Worldometer numbers right now : Total Cases (157,149) - Total Deaths (21,092) = Cases w/o Death (136,057).
Current number of 'Active Cases' = 135,713.

I would guess Cases w/o Death - Active Cases = Recovered (344).
That number is just so small it can't be right, and we know that the Death numbers are off, and so are the active cases numbers, due to testing, so all of the numbers are just 'Indications'.

"Best Guess" is what I take them as...

Numbers from around the world are taken from Worldometers for April 28th.

Spain - Pop: 44.6 M
232,128 Positive tests…….. or 1 out of 201 Spaniards
10.26% Deaths

Italy - Pop: 60.4 M
201,505 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 300 Italians
13.57 % Deaths

France – Pop: 67.0 M
165,842 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 404 French
14.04 % Deaths

UK – Pop: 66.6 M
157,149 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 424 UKers
13.42 % Deaths

Sweden – Pop: 10.2 M
19,621 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 521 Swedes
12.00 % Deaths

Denmark – Pop: 5.8 M
8,851 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 655 Danes
4.90 % Deaths

US - Pop: 330 M
1,013,508 Positive tests.... or 1 out of 326 Americans
5.62% Deaths

US death rates (2017):
1. Heart Disease …………….…………647,457 annual or 1,773 daily average
2. Cancer ……………………..……….….599,108 annual or 1,641 daily average
3. Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936 annual or 465 daily average
7. Diabetes:………………………………….83,564 annual or 228 daily average

COVID-19 ………………………………………. 57,049 (59 Day) or 966 daily average


*** SURPASSED *****

8. Influenza and Pneumonia …………55,562 annual or 152 daily average
9. Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis:..50,633 annual or 138 daily average
10. Intentional self-harm (suicide):..47,173 annual or 129 daily average
X. Auto accidents ………………….………37,461 annual or 102 daily average
X. H1N1 2009 ESTIMATED (8,868 – 18,638) for 1 year or 24 – 50 daily average

a reply to: MonkeyBalls2

Because non-peer reviewed information about possible transmission of the Virus isn't dangerous.

Getting transmission right is just as important as getting treatments right. Being indoors has been a known factor in virus spread, Also viruses thrive in cold temperatures.

People react to headlines and don’t read critically and they hide inside and not go outside. What if study comes back and says it spreads the virus more, and can cause a deadly secondary effect. So this way of suppressing virus spread is found not effective.

We already know a lot about transmission. We have been fighting viruses for a long time. Why is this virus undoing what we knew as settled science. Have the scientists been wrong all these years? If so, could they be wrong now?

Removed by me. A personal attack
Not helpful to anyone.

a reply to: CrazeeWorld777

It’s unbelievable - it’s embarrassing to be British! Just because we have a power mad, populist PM who’s afraid to tell the people definitively what to do in case he loses votes, it doesn’t let the moronic hordes filling the streets off the hook.

They don’t have wit to see that their return to work will lead to another deadly wave and a longer lockdown.

Sheeple is too flattering a word for them - they’re lemmings marching off the cliff because they saw another lemming do so.

a reply to: MonkeyBalls2

Thanks! The other day I heard The U.K. government being asked repeatedly by a journalist what the recovered rate was and he just wouldn’t answer - the usual changing the subject/answering a different question rubbish. It does indeed seem like there’s a reason for ‘N/A’ that they doesn’t want to tell us: ore than they want, or less, or they simply ballsed up the method of counting.

It would be really useful for someone to start a thread on planning/prepping for the coming SECOND WAVE in fall.

We should all stay one step ahead of the sheep. The fall will be a living hell....its Flu...Cold...and Covid19 season..

You can get all three at the same time....or sequentially....

How do we plan for the FALL!!!!? How do we plan for the coming SECOND WAVE!!!