Corona Virus Updates Part 6

originally posted by: Cloudbuster
All most all except maybe one death are from old peoples homes, all except two of those are over 70 years old and had pre-existing health problems. All current known cases are either people who have returned from overseas or who are linked to known clusters. I think and don't quote me that we have had only one case where they are unsure of where the person contracted it. Tonight we go to alert level 3 so we shall see how that goes. Some people will be able to start work again and stupid Mccrapholds can start selling crap food , schools will open for essential workers and those who need to go back to work for their children, I will be keeping my children home as I have to currently study online due to my university remaining online for now. The early childhood centre I work in is opening for up to 10 children and as I work part time I wont be required to work thank dogness. We will have to wait and see how level 3 goes.
I feel extreme relief for Papatūānuku (mother earth).
a reply to: Byrd

Glad you can manage from home, and I think that if I were in your position I would also be keeping my kids at home. Here in Dallas, I shop at the store (Target) that is providing their workers gloves and masks and has put up shields between cashier and client, and is reminding folks about social distancing on the intercom, and in the grocery aisles has "one way" signs to follow. There are other stores that have variations of this (not doing all of it), but since I grocery shop for two elderly people and an immune-compromised woman, I just don't take that risk.

...I hope it wouldn't be inappropriate to say "Kia kaha" to you.

Some articles pertaining to strategies being looked at for the easing of lockdowns. Many countries, like Italy, are looking to start opening up to some degree in May. So we should start to see plans, ideas, and strategies come out detailing what different places are thinking might be the best way to move forward in life. Which is the right way to do it, instead of resisting change, embracing it so that we face it on our own terms. The only normal is adaptation.

Cell Phone Contact Tracing
Interesting to look at how various countries have done this, Taiwan and South Korea have had much success with this. Unsure how well this will work in the US. But an ability to do effective contact tracing is an important part of containing diseases. Taiwan has had an interesting technique in doing this.

To make new online and offline tools for fighting the virus, “hacktivists,” developers and citizens have been collaborating with the government on vTaiwan, a sort of online democracy town hall and brainstorming site.

Right To Home Working Law
Germany is looking at ways to increase working from home. Even after this is all over.

German Labour Minister Hubertus Heil is working on legislation to give employees the right to work from home even when the coronavirus crisis is over, he told a newspaper on Sunday.

Irregardless what you think of this virus, it wont be the last, so it is still wise to have plans so that we can better deal with future diseases. So that it may not require such drastic actions so quickly that catch people off guard next time.

Ok, this will be a big post, sorry, had to be done.

A blatant deliberate disinfo campaign is being used to drive a bigger 2nd wave and the accompanying civil unrest. A hoax perpetrating the theory high CV fatality rates are a hoax. I would go as far as to say that it is criminal and endangering people's lives.

While the preliminary data suggests much more widespread infection, it means New York's mortality rate is much lower than previously thought.
As of Thursday, nearly 16,000 people in New York have died of virus-related complications. With 260,000-plus confirmed cases, the mortality rate would be as high as 6 percent. With 2.7 million cases, it would be around 0.5 percent -- much lower, though still much higher than the seasonal flu.

www.nbcnewyork.com...< br />
This one is even worse.

L.A. County Antibody Tests Suggest the Fatality Rate for COVID-19 Is Much Lower Than People Feared

The tests indicate that the number of infections in the county is around 40 times as high as the number of confirmed cases.

As of noon today, Los Angeles County had reported 617 deaths out of 13,816 confirmed cases, which implies a fatality rate of 4.5 percent. Based on that death toll, the new study suggests the true fatality rate among everyone infected by the virus is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 0.3 percent (without taking into account people infected since the study was conducted). The lower end of that range is about the same as the estimated fatality rate for the seasonal flu.

reason.com...

So why is it BS?

It is deliberately confusing the CFR with the IFR, and comparing one to the other.

What a joke.

The IFR differs from the CFR in that it aims to estimate the fatality rate in all those with infection: the detected disease (cases) and those with an undetected disease (asymptomatic and not tested group).[8] (Individuals who are infected, but always remain asymptomatic, are said to have "inapparent" — or silent, or subclinical — infections.) The IFR will always be lower than the CFR as long as all deaths are accurately attributed to either the infected or the non-infected class.

en.wikipedia.org...

So IFR is a calculation of fatality rate based off an estimate of all cases, including asymptomatics.

CFR is the fatality rate calculated from actual diagnosed cases, it does not include an estimate of asymptomatic cases.

The estimates we have generally heard up to this point are CFR estimates.

The above articles are stating an IFR estimate for Covid-19 and comparing it to a CFR estimate for Covid and seasonal influenza.

.1% is the CFR of flu, not the IFR. Seasonal flu also has a large amount of asymptomatic cases that are not included in the .1% estimate.

What is the IFR of flu?

Around .04%

One important thing to get straight here is exactly how dangerous seasonal influenza is. The fatality rate that has been cited most often (including by me) is 0.1%, which happens to be about what you get if you divide the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s estimates of U.S. influenza deaths over the past nine years by its estimates of symptomatic cases. But just as with the coronavirus, testing has shown that many people infected with influenza viruses develop no flu symptoms. In a Twitter thread from February that a reader pointed out to me this week, University of Oxford infectious disease epidemiologist Christophe Fraser estimated that the actual infection fatality rate (which I will refer to from now on as IFR) of seasonal influenza is 0.04%.

www.bloomberg.com...

Comparing .04% infuenza IFR to the estimates in the above articles we get these figures.

New York- 12.5x more than flu.
L.A- 2.5- 5x more than flu

Yet they state

The lower end of that range is about the same as the estimated fatality rate for the seasonal flu.

Just no.

Can I pull this apart even more?

Sure.

For NY they say .5% but 16000÷2.7 million x 100 is .59%, another lie. So using the actual number.

NY- 14.75x more than flu.

it means New York's mortality rate is much lower than previously thought.

No it's not, at best maybe only a little bit, it's just that the IFR is less than the CFR, like it is with all diseases that have asymptomatic cases.

These are just two cities IFR guesses, what happens if we use more data?

So the range of IFRs derived from these surveys so far is 0.12% to 1.08%, and the latter result should probably be given much more credence than the former both because of the false-positives issue described above and the seeming flaws in the calculations used to arrive at 0.12%.

If the IFR of the seasonal flu is 0.04%, these blood surveys show Covid-19 to be anywhere from three times deadlier to 27 times deadlier — and given the incompleteness of current death counts, the true range seems likely to be higher than that.

www.bloomberg.com...

Then all the CFR numbers used in their estimates are using the naive and misleading method, and are undoubtedly low. I've harped on about this before

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude

www.worldometers.info...

Using one of the two most accurate methods stated in

Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease

academic.oup.com...

Current world Covid CFR using deaths/deaths+recoveredx100 is 19%.

As the disease progresses this estimate becomes more accurate and it's been hovering around 19-20% for a while. Is it totally accurate? Probably not but it is more likely to be accurate than the naive method deaths/total confirmed cases.

IFR using the more accurate method will be correspondingly higher, can't be bothered calculating them atm.

So I can see it now, wave 2, bunch of lockdown protesters tricked into yelling "it's just the flu". This will be used as an excuse to implement even more drastic measures, exactly the opposite of what the protesters want.

Another trap to try and bring in the NWO.

a reply to: Cloudbuster

"I feel extreme relief for Papatūānuku (mother earth)."

Me too

a reply to: primalfractal

Great work!

a reply to: McGinty

Thanks, struggled to get those links to work, site seemed to get confused with them all

Been away for a few days but have been reading the comments.

Just posting about a new virus among childrn in the UK and Authorities are trying to figure out if this is a new form of coronavirus among children:

NHS issues urgent alert amid spike in the number of children being admitted to intensive care with a new coronavirus-related 'inflammatory syndrome'

In an alert sent to GPs, health chiefs at an NHS board in London said: 'There is growing concern that a [COVID-19] related inflammatory syndrome is emerging in children in the UK. 'Over the last three weeks there has been an apparent rise in the number of children of all ages presenting with a multi-system inflammatory state requiring intensive care across London and also in other regions of the UK.' Children are not thought to be badly affected by COVID-19 - very few youngsters have died around the world since the pandemic began in December. Their apparent resilience to the disease has baffled doctors for weeks because they are often 'super-spreaders' of viral illnesses such as flu. The children being seen with the new syndrome often suffer from stomach pain, cardiac inflammation and 'gastrointestinal symptoms' - which could include vomiting and diarrhoea. Doctors have compared the mysterious condition to toxic shock syndrome and Kawasaki disease which, combined, cause harmful internal swelling, fever and breathing problems - all hallmark signs of COVID-19. But some of the children presenting with the illness have tested negative for the coronavirus, further complicating the diagnosis. Officials have yet to address the alert and offer any clarity, prompting rumours that it was fake - but another group of medics affiliated to the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health confirmed it was true. It is not clear how many children have had the inflammatory syndrome, nor whether any have died with it. It is also unclear as to how old children are who are being struck down, or if there are any clusters of cases in the UK.

www.dailymail.co.uk...

Also this:

People are heading back to work in some areas when lockdown is supposedly still in place. Well, I'm thinking a new spike in cases will arise in about 3 weeks from now and lockdown will continue for longer!

Just as our new cases numbers and deaths were beginning to slow down.

Britain's roads are packed with traffic and Londoners cram onto the Tube as phone and GPS data shows millions going back to work as Greggs and Timpson announce plans to reopen

Photographs taken during rush hour showed queues building up on London roads including the A40 at Perivale and the A102 at Greenwich, while the M5 in Bristol and the M6 in Walsall were also busy with cars, vans and lorries. Meanwhile rail commuters continue to pile onto London Underground trains as travel bosses carry on running a reduced service only for key workers, with Canning Town and Canada Water stations both busy this morning. It comes as more businesses announce plans to reopen, with bakery Greggs set to reopen several stores in a trial, and key cutting and shoe repair firm Timpson opening some sites with strict hygiene and social distancing rules. Mobility data from Apple based on requests for directions via its apps showed more people are now driving, but the use of public transport has remained static. Traffic in London last Friday and Saturday was up 4 per cent on the week before. Walking is also steadily increasing - it was up 8 per cent on the week before in London on Saturday. Live TomTom congestion data in London showed levels at 8am today of 14 per cent, down 49 percentage points on the normal 63 per cent. At 8am last Tuesday to Thursday, it was down 51 to 53 percentage points on normal. Meanwhile Google Maps showed congestion in parts of central and southern London this morning, in another sign that there are more cars on the road today than in recent weeks since the lockdown began on March 23.

www.dailymail.co.uk...

IF we wNT TO KEEP CASES DOWN, Then I think we should at least wait another Month. I think its too early and what with the new virus among children I posted about before this post, it doesn't look like ending anytime soon. Children will have to be kept off school longer and of course, can pass it on to their parents.... maybe? It's a new virus but possible links to covid-19 and probably is...what are the odds it's not connected??

a reply to: CrazeeWorld777

Terrible news about the kids, sending your link to my brother, he has a young un. Some of the kids are testing negative but have this coronavirus related 'syndrome'? Wonder what percentage?

Because SARS 2 can kill T cells, my first thought was of autoimmune diseases and HIV, which causes inflammation by killing T cells. Hopefully not.

IMO opening up while still having a large amount of active cases is a recipe for a bigger second wave. More points of origin that are more geographically dispersed than the 1st wave.

originally posted by: primalfractal
Another trap to try and bring in the NWO.

I think the coronavirus brought in the NWO all by itself without any conspiracy at all lol


Though you did post some valuable information and distinctions there which a lot of people should understand, good work on that.

a reply to: CrazeeWorld777

I was about to post very same. Thank you for posting.
I wish people/Governments would put more emphasis on the numbers of confirmed cases. Yes the death totals are important, but with testing still being rolled out in the community, the number of confirmed cases keeps going up astronomically compared to deaths.
I do not understand why people don't get that here in the UK there are so many infected people out there that might even be asymptomatic, possibly in the same queue as you at the supermarket, who will be shedding and spreading and are themselves at risk of developing full blown symptoms. I know I would be sh***ng myself if I was tested positive but asymptomatic!

Rainbows
Jane

Prayers and thoughts for my aunt. please.

It sounds like she is not going to make it. She is in a hospital in Kentucky. She was admited 2 days ago, painful breathing, no energy, but was doing some better the other day, then took a turn for the worse last night.

She is under sedation, and they are going to try to remove fluid from her lungs today. She is on oxygen, but not a ventalator.

She has had 3 tests, 2 came back negitive, the thrid was "lost".

I call BS on that. Either they did not do the tests correctly, or since this is Kentucky that wants to start to open early, they want to keep the numbers low.

a reply to: primalfractal

In addition to what you wrote, the tests have other problems too.

Selection bias in who they tested. One of the ways they recruited people was through an ad on facebook. So there is concern whether people who already were suspicious that they have been exposed were more likely to sign up for it.

The accuracy of the tests used. This involves things like the specificity and sensitivity of the antibody tests. Which refers to the number of false positives and negatives.

Only at 99% specificity does the false positive rate become anywhere near acceptable, and even here the chances are that 16% of positive results would be wrong.

www.evaluate.com...

None of this proves the study wrong of course, but it indicates flaws that don't make it the smoking gun some people wanted it to be. Unfortunate that everyone is so quick to want to confirm their biases, and once they do, shut themselves off to any follow up corrections. Plus it's interesting to see people claim all the covid-19 numbers are false and made up by the government, while using government estimates of flu numbers. Which many institutions also have reason to inflate, e.g. to get them to take the flu vaccine, they would be more likely to take it if the numbers are higher.

So the fair thing to say is that both are inflated by the same factor, but of course that doesnt help their argument. Because covid would still be worse.

a reply to: MrRCflying

A good friend of mine lives in bullit county, I feel your pain and am sorry for what your aunt is going through.

Though Beshear is a pretty decent guy, so I don't think he's going to cave to pressure from the vocal minority who are screaming about early opening. Beshear's plan is mostly for healthcare openings, which doesn't seem terribly out of line.

Give her our best (as best as you can)

a reply to: alphabetaone

Thank you. I am not sure what all is going on there, as I have been watching things here. I thought Kentucky was rushing things like Georgia. I must be mistaken.

Either way, my mom is a wreck right now. I am not sure what brand of test they used or anything, but it sounds like it does not work. She has all the symptoms.

a reply to: angelchemuel

Can't star your post for some reason.

Yes, it is odd that another virus has started doing the rounds in children at this time. Must be another form of covid??

Ok, now I can star your post... after I posted a reply.

odd.

a reply to: CrazeeWorld777

Lots of odd internet stuff going on today. Slight lag and students sending me their homeworks via Messenger wont open/download.
Thank you for the star

Rainbows
Jane

Numbers from around the world are taken from Worldometers for April 26th.

Spain - Pop: 44.6 M
229,422 Positive tests…….. or 1 out of 203 Spaniards
10.25% Deaths

Italy - Pop: 60.4 M
199,414 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 303 Italians
13.52 % Deaths

France – Pop: 67.0 M
162,100 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 413 French
14.09 % Deaths

UK – Pop: 66.6 M
152,840 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 436 UKers
13.56 % Deaths

Sweden – Pop: 10.2 M
18,926 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 541 Swedes
12.01 % Deaths

Denmark – Pop: 5.8 M
8,698 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 667 Danes
4.90 % Deaths

US - Pop: 330 M
993,852 Positive tests.... or 1 out of 332 Americans
5.63% Deaths

US death rates (2017):
1. Heart Disease …………….…………647,457 annual or 1,773 daily average
2. Cancer ……………………..……….….599,108 annual or 1,641 daily average
3. Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936 annual or 465 daily average
7. Diabetes:………………………………….83,564 annual or 228 daily average

COVID-19 ………………………………………. 56,009 (58 Day) or 965 daily average


*** SURPASSED *****

8. Influenza and Pneumonia …………55,562 annual or 152 daily average
9. Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis:..50,633 annual or 138 daily average
10. Intentional self-harm (suicide):..47,173 annual or 129 daily average
X. Auto accidents ………………….………37,461 annual or 102 daily average
X. H1N1 2009 ESTIMATED (8,868 – 18,638) for 1 year or 24 – 50 daily average

Doctor's now giving Men Ostrogen injections in fight against covid because less women are dying than Men.

Now, I see a definite agenda coming along...

US doctors have started giving men with coronavirus ESTROGEN in the hopes of boosting their immune systems after finding the virus kills half as many women

Two hospitals in the US are now putting that theory to the test, giving men estrogen or progesterone for a limited amount of time to see if it boosts their immune systems, decreases inflammation and reduces the severity of the illness.

www.dailymail.co.uk... -comments

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
Doctor's now giving Men Ostrogen injections in fight against covid because less women are dying than Men.

Now, I see a definite agenda coming along...

US doctors have started giving men with coronavirus ESTROGEN in the hopes of boosting their immune systems after finding the virus kills half as many women

Two hospitals in the US are now putting that theory to the test, giving men estrogen or progesterone for a limited amount of time to see if it boosts their immune systems, decreases inflammation and reduces the severity of the illness.

www.dailymail.co.uk... -comments

I posted the research paper on this a few pages ago, along with a supporting one about male pattern baldness (high testosterone) and increased risks.

There's no "agenda" here. You can't turn a man gay (or anything else) by changing the amount of testosterone in their system... otherwise, the only "manly men" would be teenagers when your testosterone levels are high.

I think it's pretty clear that men don't get "less manly" after age 15.

So short-term doses of estrogen aren't going to make much of an impact and may possibly save lives.