Corona Virus Updates Part 6

originally posted by: Byrd
Reported by Associated Press and several other sources: Norsing home deaths soar past 3,300 in alarming surge

And are apparently being undercounted since they're not hospital deaths. One nursing home had 42 deaths and 100+ infected. A veterans' home had 37 deaths and 76 infections and the feds are investigating.

(it's not just the elderly in nursing homes. You also get much younger amputees and people with physical conditions like cerebral palsy or spina bifida whose families can't take care of them (parents find it too hard to lift and move them)

The more I see reports like this, and the longer it takes before they start using protocols that will actually save peoples lives as opposed to killing them (improper use of ventilators), the more it appears to be a planned culling of the weak from the herd.

a reply to: Brick17

Thank you for your update from another UK member here.
Like you I am sad that TennisDawg is not posting and I sincerely hope he is safe. But it is lovely and a welcome 'replacement' that you are posting albeit sporadically. I look out for your posts as I appreciate them.
Seeing as Porton Down are on to this, let's hope that we get some answers sooner than later.
Stay safe
Rainbows
Jane

a reply to: tanstaafl

think you will find a virus will show more death in the weak more as they have weaker immune systems, it will also kill many ppl who's immune system is strong

don't have all the data from when the black death was around but im pretty sure it was the stronger healthy ppl who survived

. Our best estimate of the infection fatality rate is in the range of 0.5% to 1%, ranging from 0.01% in the under 20s to 8% in the over 80s

I hope the numbers look better and more survive

my figures are 0.3 for a total of 180k death in the uk

originally posted by: primalfractal
Don't want to argue the effectiveness of lockdowns, ours here in Aus is obviously working.

The only problem with this comment is - you actually don't know that.

You also don't know how many more deaths are happening that wouldn't have without the lockdown (suicides, stress induced heart attacks/strokes, etc)...

I prefer the animating contest of freedom to ... lockdowns.

Looks like many brits love the draconian measures in place:L

Research for MailOnline found 80 per cent would not feel safe going back to everyday life at the moment, with nearly 60 per cent saying they are not comfortable leaving the house. Around half are now resigned to the draconian 'social distancing' curbs being in place into June - and 37 per cent say they will keep obeying the rules indefinitely if the government believes it is necessary.

Some 37 per cent say they would be willing to tolerate the current lockdown measures “however much longer the Government deems necessary even if it is beyond the end of June”. Just 1 per cent say they are no longer willing to tolerate the shutdown. Nearly half - 43 per cent - would not feel safe leaving the house if ministers lifted the lockdown immediately. Four-fifths would feel unsafe going to a bar or restaurant, 80 per cent would be wary of public transport, and 62 per cent would feel unsafe going back to work. Just 15 per cent would feel safe attending a sporting event, and 69 per cent would want to avoid going to hospital for a non-coronavirus issue. Overall 80 per cent said they would not resume 'life as normal' if the lockdown was lifted imminently. A quarter suggested the lockdown measures should not be eased until there have been 'several days' with zero new cases of the virus. There is limited confidence in the government's plan to get out of the crisis, with 31 per cent saying they believe it has an exit strategy, compared to 44 per cent who think not. Wearing masks has significant support, with 48 per cent saying everyone should be required to wear them in public if lockdown is loosened.

www.dailymail.co.uk...

The extraordinary findings in the polling by Redfield & Wilton come despite some 43 per cent reporting that the crisis is damaging their mental health.

I,myself would be fine with this socila distancing if indeed everything is the truth about this virus. We may be on some massive controling experiment!

a reply to: CrazeeWorld777

maybe that's because theres food in the supermarkets tap water is running and booze still available,


edit: the mental health side is the whole fact we know there a virus, anybody can try to look up death figures and know these numbers are higher than the reported deaths that are mostly only reported in hospital, the government are saying there more but don't know atm due to recording and delay's in the system.

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
Looks like many brits love the draconian measures in place:L

Research for MailOnline found 80 per cent would not feel safe going back to everyday life at the moment, with nearly 60 per cent saying they are not comfortable leaving the house. Around half are now resigned to the draconian 'social distancing' curbs being in place into June - and 37 per cent say they will keep obeying the rules indefinitely if the government believes it is necessary.

Some 37 per cent say they would be willing to tolerate the current lockdown measures “however much longer the Government deems necessary even if it is beyond the end of June”. Just 1 per cent say they are no longer willing to tolerate the shutdown. Nearly half - 43 per cent - would not feel safe leaving the house if ministers lifted the lockdown immediately. Four-fifths would feel unsafe going to a bar or restaurant, 80 per cent would be wary of public transport, and 62 per cent would feel unsafe going back to work. Just 15 per cent would feel safe attending a sporting event, and 69 per cent would want to avoid going to hospital for a non-coronavirus issue. Overall 80 per cent said they would not resume 'life as normal' if the lockdown was lifted imminently. A quarter suggested the lockdown measures should not be eased until there have been 'several days' with zero new cases of the virus. There is limited confidence in the government's plan to get out of the crisis, with 31 per cent saying they believe it has an exit strategy, compared to 44 per cent who think not. Wearing masks has significant support, with 48 per cent saying everyone should be required to wear them in public if lockdown is loosened.

www.dailymail.co.uk...

The extraordinary findings in the polling by Redfield & Wilton come despite some 43 per cent reporting that the crisis is damaging their mental health.

I,myself would be fine with this socila distancing if indeed everything is the truth about this virus. We may be on some massive controling experiment!

Fear a powerful motivator as always, and the impact of this will only compound the issues. The future looks very different than it did at the end of 2019!

originally posted by: ColoradoJens
What is the significance of higher IL levels?

Those are the proteins that "turn on" the immune system response in a healthy immune system... and go out of whack in a cytokene storm.

One of them in particular seems to be the "early warning system" that your immune system is going into "hysterical overload." So if they can suppress it before it reaches that peak, they may be able to stop a cytokene storm in its tracks.

originally posted by: McGinty

originally posted by: FellowHumanJust like with people, when you do something quick the end result is more likely to have errors. So I'm also suspicious of the attempt to frame being "slow to mutate" as something that is an undeniable positive for us.

Forgive me if I’ve got this wrong, but I thought mutations were errors.

Some of these errors prove advantageous in the environment meaning these mutations replicate more than others.

In which case more is more, faster must be better in that certainly there’ll be more mutations that fail in the environment, but also more that thrive.

Mutations aren't errors. They're "differences." Sometimes they don't have any impact, sometimes they help, sometimes they kill.

a reply to: Byrd

Fair enough, ‘error’ is a judgemental term; bad outcome some may say error / good outcome some may say improvement. But yes, I see your point, it’s simply different. Thanks for the illumination!

Regarding the cytokine storm, is there a feasible way to track IL levels? Once a patient presents at hospital it may already be too late to suppress the storm. Maybe a home test kit for that, if possible is more urgent than the antibody test since it’s preventative.

I have a seronegative auto immune condition so I’m guessing I’m already suffering cytokine rain clouds, if not a full on storm, so I’d really appreciate a way of keeping this level under observation.

Here's some numbers for NY 606 new deaths:
www.worldometers.info...

And this from cuomo. he's extended the "Pause" from April 30 to May 15:
www.wktv.com...

ALBANY, N.Y. – Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Thursday he’s extending all executive orders issued under New York State on PAUSE to May 15. Cuomo said the decision was made in coordination with surrounding states. He also required all residents to start wearing face coverings in busy public places starting Friday.

For those interested in reading the paper that said hydroxychloroquine is NOT effective in coronavirus treatment, the actual preprint paper is here

Full title: "No evidence of clinical efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 infection and requiring oxygen: results of a study using routinely collected data to emulate a target trial"

researchers There's about 36 people listed as authors (so were important in collecting, confirming, and analyzing the data.)

Facilities Data was gathered at 14 French hospitals over a 2 week period (2-3 people collected data at each of the hosptials)

Basic methods The study matched patients who got the HCQ treatment with similar patients who didn't get it. Cases were evaluated to see if they improved or if they died. They were using the same kinds of measures as for a clinical trial (you can use historical data if it's good to simulate a clinical trial.) The selection method also took into account underlying health problems and matched people so they were similar (in other words, a man with high blood pressure who got HCQ was matched with one who had high blood pressure but didn't get the treatment.)

HCQ treatment was the same kind (dose, etc) as given in papers that said HCQ gave a good outcome.

Conclusions: The results weren't much better than chance.

Brief discussion This was done because they wanted to know if they could get HCQ into clinical trials and fast track it to approved treatment.

In order to be an effective treatment, they want to see better results than if they'd given the patients Grandma's Chicken Soup. Now... chicken soup happens to be very good for ill people (soothing, comfort food, easy to digest, good minerals, some immune system help) and it's harmless, but frankly chicken soup isn't medicine. If I get shingles, chicken soup isn't going to get rid of them faster (even if I bathe in the stuff) though it might perk me up while I'm feeling lousy. So there might have been a little improvement with HCQ but what you didn't see was 80% of the patients with a remarkable improvement (what they were looking for, based on some early findings.)

So they were disappointed to find that adding this other drug to what they're doing already doesn't get almost all patients well faster and out of the hospital faster... therefore, it's not of any value in this crisis.

originally posted by: McGinty
a reply to: Byrd

Fair enough, ‘error’ is a judgemental term; bad outcome some may say error / good outcome some may say improvement. But yes, I see your point, it’s simply different. Thanks for the illumination!

Regarding the cytokine storm, is there a feasible way to track IL levels? Once a patient presents at hospital it may already be too late to suppress the storm. Maybe a home test kit for that, if possible is more urgent than the antibody test since it’s preventative.

Blood test, and you have to send it to a lab. And it's not really a preventive, but rather a warning.

I have a seronegative auto immune condition so I’m guessing I’m already suffering cytokine rain clouds, if not a full on storm, so I’d really appreciate a way of keeping this level under observation.

That's a scary thing to have. The one bright light I can offer is that they're looking at a number of different RA drugs to help control cytokene storms... so you may have an edge there.

I hope that you can stay safe until they get this thing under control.

a reply to: angelchemuel

Thanks. If anything does change I'll post here.

Tennisdawg came from the US, he informed us about this virus and a wee bit about how it works/affects people before it was known anywhere else and what he mentioned has become known since. Whoever he is, I believe him and I understand his need to remain vague about who he is. So if you are still about Tennisdawg, stay safe Bonny lad.

I am convinced that many governments from the more advanced nations know much more than they are letting be known. Many governments have access to Intel of all kinds that will never be released to the public. This virus is too 'strange' and seems to be reeking havoc across the world. It could be a new form of war by other means in order to achieve a certain amount of goals. That's how I am looking at it. Or just an accident, got loose by pure chance. Or I'm totally wrong and it's zoological, which makes us all really unlucky (us being a virus and Mother Nature taking a wee time out to recover). Or I could discard all that and take the conspiracy route which can take any number of paths, some more plausible than others. Although I find them interesting and some more plausible than others (5G no, it cause health issues I have no doubt but I don't believe is connected to the virus); the more plausible are connected will Bill Gates. But personally I believe it's man made, just don't know if it was released on purpose, by accident or a third party. It's either that or natural. Just my thoughts.

Take care.

Numbers from around the world are now starting to come in for April 16th.

Spain - Pop: 44.6 M
182,816 Positive tests…….. or 1 out of 255 Spaniards
10.46% Deaths

Italy - Pop: 60.4 M
168,941 Positive tests….. or 1 out of 358 Italians
13.12 % Deaths

US - Pop: 330 M
645,872 Positive tests.... or 1 out of 511 Americans
5.03% Deaths

US death rates (2017):
1. Heart Disease …………….…………647,457 annual or 1,773 daily average
2. Cancer ……………………..……….….599,108 annual or 1,641 daily average
3. Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936 annual or 465 daily average
8. Influenza and Pneumonia …………55,562 annual or 152 daily average
10. Intentional self-harm (suicide):..47,173 annual or 129 daily average
X. Auto accidents ………………….………37,461 annual or 102 daily average

COVID-19 ……………………………………….32,504(47 Day) or 691 daily average


*** SURPASSED *****

X. H1N1 2009 ESTIMATED (8,868 – 18,638) for 1 year or 24 – 50 daily average

Side note… I have been/ and am using BNOnews, who have already added the 3,778 ‘probable’ additional deaths from New York State, reported on April 14, already into their numbers. Worldometers temporarily held off, seeing if historical information would be released as to when the deaths occurred (see their notes in their site). Today they have added this number to their overall deaths for the US.

originally posted by: MrRCflying
Confirmed new cases jumped back up in New York State today. We had been holding a bit steady around 7-8k new cases a day. I wonder why there was a 30%+ surge today?

Because they are cooking the numbers and making crap up as they go and lots of people are lapping it up.

This is getting ridiculous.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: MrRCflying
Confirmed new cases jumped back up in New York State today. We had been holding a bit steady around 7-8k new cases a day. I wonder why there was a 30%+ surge today?

Because they are cooking the numbers and making crap up as they go and lots of people are lapping it up.

This is getting ridiculous.

The deaths happened so it's not "making crap up". New York didn't have enough tests to go around even for the living, so they didn't want to waste them on the dead so they stopped testing the dead for COVID-19.

Then they got criticized for that because people said they are fudging the numbers by not including all those COVID-19 deaths.

Then they tried to estimate how many of them were from COVID-19 so they get criticized for that too, so they're darned if they don't and darned if they do. This was posted explaining the 30% surge:

originally posted by: carewemust
New York revises the death toll to add 3,700 people whom they suspect could have had coronavirus when they died.

news.yahoo.com...

As I've said all along, the numbers aren't reliable for calculating things like CFR anyway because so many people aren't tested. Once tests become more available and there aren't so many unresolved cases the accuracy of the numbers may improve, but by then there may be better treatments available which could actually change the CFR so it's a dynamic situation. Can you get a hospital bed and medical treatment if you need it? That's the more important question right now, than guessing the exact CFR from the unreliable numbers.