Corona Virus Updates Part 6

originally posted by: all2human
My health minister just today admitted that the current strategy is herd immunity
until a vaccine is created (which ever comes first)
therefore 70-80% of the population is expected to get it.
That our distancing measures is to assure a bed is avaliable when/if a person goes serious,and there is adequate PPE.
Brutal truth
This is pandemic to endemic level thinking.

With evidence about that people previously determined to be "recovered" becoming infected again, I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into that "herd immunity" thing. To be perfectly honest, the first time I heard about this "herd immunity" it sounded to me that this was just smoke and mirrors for the fact that medical technology is admitting that they can't do a darn thing about this thing. So this is nothing more than a "gee, we really hope this will help, because we have nothing else to offer" sort of thing.

IMHO.

April 16, 2020

A sure indication that Hydroxychloroquine/Zinc treatment of Covid-19 WORKS GREAT, can be found by Googling the drug, and seeing what News Outlets are at the top of the Google results.

1.) CNN - www.cnn.com...

2.) Bloomberg - www.bloomberg.com...

3.) FoxNews - www.foxnews.com...

The ABOVE THREE are digging up studies in order to make people think that Hydroxychloroquine is pretty much useless. Most of the Mainstream Media articles are strongly against this inexpensive, yet effective medication!

But, when you look at real people reporting their experiences in local media outlets, blogs, forums, and other social media platforms, you realize that the drug is pretty darn amazing!

Once you get past the 20 or so Anti-Hydroxychloroquine results that Google intentionally stacks at the top of the search results, you begin entering the realm of REALITY...with story, after story, after story, like this one:

I'm Recovering Nicely..Finally!: mtstandard.com...

It's also curious that celebrities, politicians, and other VIPs who recover from Covid-19 in record time, never mention what drug/drugs were administered.

The most recent is U.K. Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON. He was in ICU this past Thursday...and by Saturday, walked out of the Hospital, and shot a "Thank-you" video for the hospital staff. As of this writing, I still can't find what type of drug is responsible for Mr. Boris Johnson's miraculous recovery.

Does anyone know?

sputniknews.com...
Live Updates: Russia Confirms Almost 3,500 Coronavirus Cases in Past 24 Hours

MOSCOW (Sputnik) - Russia has registered 3,448 new COVID-19 cases over the past 24 hours, bringing the total to 27,938, the country's coronavirus response centre said on Thursday.

"Over the past 24 hours, Russia has confirmed 3,448 COVID-19 cases in 78 regions... Russia has registered 27,938 cases of coronavirus infection in 84 regions, with a 14.1 percent increase [over the past 24 hours]", the centre told reporters.

Of the new cases, 1,370 were registered in Moscow, 467 in the Moscow Region, and 154 in St. Petersburg, the centre specified.

The country's COVID-19 death toll has increased by 34 to 232 over the past 24 hours.

a reply to: 727Sky


That's not good news at all. Russia is one big country too.

New thread showing the key factor Liver damage and Iron overload conditions may play in whether or not patients eventually go critical. If this bears out, different treatment protocols early in the disease progression could prove to be invaluable in potentially preventing hospitalizations. Which would mean we could maybe get back to more normal function in society sooner rather then later.

CoVID-19 - Liver Attack - Iron Overload - Hemeglobin - Lung Cascade - Coagulation

Includes the following

- CoVID-19 and liver damage, the hemoglobin factor.
- Why finding large numbers of mild and asymptomatic CoVID-19 cases is a bad sign, not a good sign.
- Experimental AI program identifies markers of Liver damage found at early stages of infection can predict eventual serious respiratory infection
- Iron Overload and Oxidative Stress
- Hydroxychloroquine impact on Iron in the body and immune function.
- Implications of this disease progression on the lungs.
- Interesting New Orleans autopsies show irregular coagulation in the lungs.

Soul

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
Have there been recorded cases whereby a person was known to have a strong healthy immune system but died?

Not from this.

There has certainly been cases of very fit people. I recall a 39 year old Italy runner who was pretty fit but died of the Chrojan!

Lots of cases of cytokine storm, which is actually proof of a malfunctioning/weakened immune system.

Again - just because someone appears to be healthy, doesn't mean they are.

It seems Cytokine storm has been detected in up to 30% of (a small test group) infected in Wuhan, but these are from numbers which the scientists say they can't fully rely on.

"Doctors are only now coming to understand cytokine storms and how to treat them, he adds. Though there’s no fail-safe diagnostic test, there are signs that a storm may be underway. For example, blood levels of the protein ferritin may rise, as may blood concentrations of the inflammation indicator C-reactive protein, which is made by the liver.

Cytokine storm in Covid-19
The first hints that severe Covid-19 cases included a cytokine storm came out of Chinese hospitals near the outbreak’s epicenter. Physicians in Wuhan, in a study of 29 patients, reported that higher levels of the cytokines IL-2R and IL-6 were found in more severe Covid-19 infections.

IL-6 was also an early indicator of a cytokine storm-like condition in an 11-patient analysis by physicians in Guangdong. Another team, analyzing 150 cases in Wuhan, found that an array of molecular indicators for a cytokine storm — including IL-6, CRP and ferritin — were higher in those who died than in those who survived.

And immunologists in Hefei reported similar results among patients who died, as well as high levels of active, damaging immune cells spewing dangerous cytokines in the blood of Covid-19 patients who required intensive care.

Cytokine storms are also raging among US patients. “I’ve seen plenty of it,” says Roberto Caricchio, chief of rheumatology at Temple University in Philadelphia. Precise data aren’t in yet, but he says that a “sizable fraction” — perhaps 20 to 30 percent — of patients with severe cases and lung symptoms have signs of a cytokine storm"

Source: www.knowablemagazine.org...

originally posted by: FinallyAwake

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
Have there been recorded cases whereby a person was known to have a strong healthy immune system but died?

Not from this.

There has certainly been cases of very fit people. I recall a 39 year old Italy runner who was pretty fit but died of the Chrojan!

Lots of cases of cytokine storm, which is actually proof of a malfunctioning/weakened immune system.

Again - just because someone appears to be healthy, doesn't mean they are.

It seems Cytokine storm has been detected in up to 30% of (a small test group) infected in Wuhan, but these are from numbers which the scientists say they can't fully rely on.

"Doctors are only now coming to understand cytokine storms and how to treat them, he adds. Though there’s no fail-safe diagnostic test, there are signs that a storm may be underway. For example, blood levels of the protein ferritin may rise, as may blood concentrations of the inflammation indicator C-reactive protein, which is made by the liver.

Cytokine storm in Covid-19
The first hints that severe Covid-19 cases included a cytokine storm came out of Chinese hospitals near the outbreak’s epicenter. Physicians in Wuhan, in a study of 29 patients, reported that higher levels of the cytokines IL-2R and IL-6 were found in more severe Covid-19 infections.

IL-6 was also an early indicator of a cytokine storm-like condition in an 11-patient analysis by physicians in Guangdong. Another team, analyzing 150 cases in Wuhan, found that an array of molecular indicators for a cytokine storm — including IL-6, CRP and ferritin — were higher in those who died than in those who survived.

And immunologists in Hefei reported similar results among patients who died, as well as high levels of active, damaging immune cells spewing dangerous cytokines in the blood of Covid-19 patients who required intensive care.

Cytokine storms are also raging among US patients. “I’ve seen plenty of it,” says Roberto Caricchio, chief of rheumatology at Temple University in Philadelphia. Precise data aren’t in yet, but he says that a “sizable fraction” — perhaps 20 to 30 percent — of patients with severe cases and lung symptoms have signs of a cytokine storm"

Source: www.knowablemagazine.org...

What do they mean by

Physicians in Wuhan, in a study of 29 patients, reported that higher levels of the cytokines IL-2R and IL-6 were found in more severe Covid-19 infections.

What is the significance of higher IL levels?

originally posted by: FellowHumanJust like with people, when you do something quick the end result is more likely to have errors. So I'm also suspicious of the attempt to frame being "slow to mutate" as something that is an undeniable positive for us.

Forgive me if I’ve got this wrong, but I thought mutations were errors.

Some of these errors prove advantageous in the environment meaning these mutations replicate more than others.

In which case more is more, faster must be better in that certainly there’ll be more mutations that fail in the environment, but also more that thrive.

originally posted by: carewemust
The most recent is U.K. Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON. He was in ICU this past Thursday...and by Saturday, walked out of the Hospital, and shot a "Thank-you" video for the hospital staff. As of this writing, I still can't find what type of drug is responsible for Mr. Boris Johnson's miraculous recovery.

Does anyone know?

It may have been the traditional remedy: BS...

Was he ever really sick? Who knows! Will his life and death struggle (as he kinda framed it) help mitigate the absolute # storm brewing because he delayed lockdown and purchased unusable test kits? Most definately.

originally posted by: ColoradoJens

originally posted by: FinallyAwake

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
Have there been recorded cases whereby a person was known to have a strong healthy immune system but died?

Not from this.

There has certainly been cases of very fit people. I recall a 39 year old Italy runner who was pretty fit but died of the Chrojan!

Lots of cases of cytokine storm, which is actually proof of a malfunctioning/weakened immune system.

Again - just because someone appears to be healthy, doesn't mean they are.

It seems Cytokine storm has been detected in up to 30% of (a small test group) infected in Wuhan, but these are from numbers which the scientists say they can't fully rely on.

"Doctors are only now coming to understand cytokine storms and how to treat them, he adds. Though there’s no fail-safe diagnostic test, there are signs that a storm may be underway. For example, blood levels of the protein ferritin may rise, as may blood concentrations of the inflammation indicator C-reactive protein, which is made by the liver.

Cytokine storm in Covid-19
The first hints that severe Covid-19 cases included a cytokine storm came out of Chinese hospitals near the outbreak’s epicenter. Physicians in Wuhan, in a study of 29 patients, reported that higher levels of the cytokines IL-2R and IL-6 were found in more severe Covid-19 infections.

IL-6 was also an early indicator of a cytokine storm-like condition in an 11-patient analysis by physicians in Guangdong. Another team, analyzing 150 cases in Wuhan, found that an array of molecular indicators for a cytokine storm — including IL-6, CRP and ferritin — were higher in those who died than in those who survived.

And immunologists in Hefei reported similar results among patients who died, as well as high levels of active, damaging immune cells spewing dangerous cytokines in the blood of Covid-19 patients who required intensive care.

Cytokine storms are also raging among US patients. “I’ve seen plenty of it,” says Roberto Caricchio, chief of rheumatology at Temple University in Philadelphia. Precise data aren’t in yet, but he says that a “sizable fraction” — perhaps 20 to 30 percent — of patients with severe cases and lung symptoms have signs of a cytokine storm"

Source: www.knowablemagazine.org...

What do they mean by

Physicians in Wuhan, in a study of 29 patients, reported that higher levels of the cytokines IL-2R and IL-6 were found in more severe Covid-19 infections.

What is the significance of higher IL levels?

I don't know I'm afraid, but I would like to!

originally posted by: FinallyAwake

originally posted by: ColoradoJens

originally posted by: FinallyAwake

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
Have there been recorded cases whereby a person was known to have a strong healthy immune system but died?

Not from this.

There has certainly been cases of very fit people. I recall a 39 year old Italy runner who was pretty fit but died of the Chrojan!

Lots of cases of cytokine storm, which is actually proof of a malfunctioning/weakened immune system.

Again - just because someone appears to be healthy, doesn't mean they are.

It seems Cytokine storm has been detected in up to 30% of (a small test group) infected in Wuhan, but these are from numbers which the scientists say they can't fully rely on.

"Doctors are only now coming to understand cytokine storms and how to treat them, he adds. Though there’s no fail-safe diagnostic test, there are signs that a storm may be underway. For example, blood levels of the protein ferritin may rise, as may blood concentrations of the inflammation indicator C-reactive protein, which is made by the liver.

Cytokine storm in Covid-19
The first hints that severe Covid-19 cases included a cytokine storm came out of Chinese hospitals near the outbreak’s epicenter. Physicians in Wuhan, in a study of 29 patients, reported that higher levels of the cytokines IL-2R and IL-6 were found in more severe Covid-19 infections.

IL-6 was also an early indicator of a cytokine storm-like condition in an 11-patient analysis by physicians in Guangdong. Another team, analyzing 150 cases in Wuhan, found that an array of molecular indicators for a cytokine storm — including IL-6, CRP and ferritin — were higher in those who died than in those who survived.

And immunologists in Hefei reported similar results among patients who died, as well as high levels of active, damaging immune cells spewing dangerous cytokines in the blood of Covid-19 patients who required intensive care.

Cytokine storms are also raging among US patients. “I’ve seen plenty of it,” says Roberto Caricchio, chief of rheumatology at Temple University in Philadelphia. Precise data aren’t in yet, but he says that a “sizable fraction” — perhaps 20 to 30 percent — of patients with severe cases and lung symptoms have signs of a cytokine storm"

Source: www.knowablemagazine.org...

What do they mean by

Physicians in Wuhan, in a study of 29 patients, reported that higher levels of the cytokines IL-2R and IL-6 were found in more severe Covid-19 infections.

What is the significance of higher IL levels?

I don't know I'm afraid, but I would like to!

I have an idea but I think we need to understand this better:

For example, blood levels of the protein ferritin may rise, as may blood concentrations of the inflammation indicator C-reactive protein, which is made by the liver.

ferritin may rise but the real question

what else may cause a reaction of ferritin and what are the symptoms/reactions?

UPDATE

I introduced myself on thread 2 page 125. UK military rural North. (I deliberately am vague about my location, role, unit, cap badge and trade).

Work: Nothing of any real value to mention. Everything I've mentioned in my previous updates is still extant. It is much quieter and our work routine has changed. Some personnel are on MACA and some still on standby but not many. As I've mentioned before, the majority of us here will remain in place due to the specific defence role of our location. Unlike many other locations/units we are not heavily involved in MACA.

Domestic: Still all healthy and safe.

Opinion: I know this is a boring update and they are becoming less frequent but there really isn't much happening at work. I am more convinced that this virus is man made. How, why, or by whom it was released I don't know but I really hope the world community #s China off and withdraws from Chinese goods/services until the CCP tells the truth or the Chinese people reclaim there sovereignty from the CCP regime. This virus has too many anomalies and acts too unpredictable to be entirely natural. Then there is all the background information to do with the labs, cover ups, arrests and missing people (female Chinese virologist as one example), those are all facts before you even begin to overlay any personal opinions or conspiracy theories.

I am staying away from the politics, too many people, no matter what they may say, are point scoring. This is not a time for that. Reviews, recommendations etc come after this, not during. For those trying to proportion some sort of blame, just # off. Go blame China, that's where the truth is buried (in some cases probably quite literally). The media has one 'quiet' on the origin of the virus for a time. I think that will change in the future. Whether man made or zoological, China is hiding the truth.

No I'm not racist, no I don't hate Chinese people but the CCP are evil and need to be brought to account. The Chinese people have a role to play in that.

I forget his on site name now: Twennisdawg, or something. I read all his post from the beginning as he wrote then. Back then before this virus became what it is today, he was mentioning what has become. He knew them, it has become true. This old soldier knows a threat when he sees it. China knows the truth.

Stay safe out there. Look out for each other.

Michigan roadside veggie stands are going to open next week. A local guy is cleaning getting his place ready only to be told he can't sell flowers. He has $3000 to be delivered but they are non essential. He has decided to give them away and they told him he can't do that and can't have them in his stand.

His stand actually sits on 2 pieces of land his wife will give flowers away with a $10 gift certificate to buy veggies next door.

Another gridlock Lansing is being planned.

Here is my updated Prediction Chart. The predicted numbers have not changed from those declared on 7 Apr 2020, apart from the Dec 2020 total global death figure following an update to my assumption parameters and a calculation error due to the incorrect cell selection in the A's calculus.

The chart which I will update on 30 Apr 2020 with the actual recorded global cases numbers shows the recorded baseline numbers from 7 Apr 2020, today's number updates as of 1.40pm today, the predictions, min & max for the following dates, 30 Apr, 31 may, 30 June & 31 Dec 2020. It also shows the % deviations from the min, average and maximum predictions.

I have used a Place holder of "1" whilst the actual come in on the dates specified. Hence why the prediction % deviation numbers are so high and won't reflect reality until then. The deviation %'s will show by what % the predictions differ from the actual as they come in.

As confirmed previously we are on target so far after 9 days (and I don't say that with any glee because I hope my figures are way off and significantly much higher than the reality).

It will be interesting to see the comparison on the 30 Apr 2020.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Here is my updated Prediction Chart. The predicted numbers have not changed from those declared on 7 Apr 2020, apart from the Dec 2020 total global death figure following an update to my assumption parameters and a calculation error due to the incorrect cell selection in the A's calculus.

The chart which I will update on 30 Apr 2020 with the actual recorded global cases numbers shows the recorded baseline numbers from 7 Apr 2020, today's number updates as of 1.40pm today, the predictions, min & max for the following dates, 30 Apr, 31 may, 30 June & 31 Dec 2020. It also shows the % deviations from the min, average and maximum predictions.

I have used a Place holder of "1" whilst the actual come in on the dates specified. Hence why the prediction % deviation numbers are so high and won't reflect reality until then. The deviation %'s will show by what % the predictions differ from the actual as they come in.

As confirmed previously we are on target so far after 9 days (and I don't say that with any glee because I hope my figures are way off and significantly much higher than the reality).

It will be interesting to see the comparison on the 30 Apr 2020.

Do your numbers take into account any mitigation efforts such as social distancing, masks/gloves, or stay at home?

It looks like realistic numbers, if things go unchecked, but we have seen an effect already with mitigation. Even the US seems to be headed down now. If things were to kick off again, there will probably be a second or third wave. Hopefully we have learned something, and can put a quick stop to it, if it does happen.

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Here is my updated Prediction Chart. The predicted numbers have not changed from those declared on 7 Apr 2020, apart from the Dec 2020 total global death figure following an update to my assumption parameters and a calculation error due to the incorrect cell selection in the A's calculus.

The chart which I will update on 30 Apr 2020 with the actual recorded global cases numbers shows the recorded baseline numbers from 7 Apr 2020, today's number updates as of 1.40pm today, the predictions, min & max for the following dates, 30 Apr, 31 may, 30 June & 31 Dec 2020. It also shows the % deviations from the min, average and maximum predictions.

I have used a Place holder of "1" whilst the actual come in on the dates specified. Hence why the prediction % deviation numbers are so high and won't reflect reality until then. The deviation %'s will show by what % the predictions differ from the actual as they come in.

As confirmed previously we are on target so far after 9 days (and I don't say that with any glee because I hope my figures are way off and significantly much higher than the reality).

It will be interesting to see the comparison on the 30 Apr 2020.

Do your numbers take into account any mitigation efforts such as social distancing, masks/gloves, or stay at home?

It looks like realistic numbers, if things go unchecked, but we have seen an effect already with mitigation. Even the US seems to be headed down now. If things were to kick off again, there will probably be a second or third wave. Hopefully we have learned something, and can put a quick stop to it, if it does happen.

Assumptions have been made about many of the mitigation parameters you refer to and anticipating that over time they will become less of an issue (but less in some states more than others). I have allowed for the numbers in Pakistan, India & Africa to grow significantly and other non health service states so as the numbers slow down in the US & EU as wells as SEA they may increase elsewhere to fill the drop void.

If you look at the actual numbers on 7 Apr 2020 and those on 16 Apr 2020 and the prediction for 30 Apr 2020 we are on target to be close to the prediction for 30 Apr 2020 which was made on 7 Apr 2020. So now we wait and see what the numbers on on 30 Apr, if they are close to predicted and the same on 31 May and 30 June then as there may be 2nd and 3rd waves the minimum predictions for Dec 2020 might not be too far off, but lets hope the predictions are ridiculously high. We just don't know so many things and its a week by week wait and see at the moment.

Note: China's real numbers would impact my model depending on what they are.

originally posted by: redpassion
A cytokine storm happens to healthy people that have a strong immune system.

Wrong.

That is what happens to people who appear to be healthy, but whose immune systems are right on the edge - in other words, weakened, but not so much that the person appears ill.

I'm not saying it is impossible for someone with a truly robust and healthy immune system to encounter some kind of bug - engineered, from the distant past that is so extremely virulent that it kills everything - that could cause a cytokine storm.

But no. this is why some people do not have any or only very mild symptoms from this thing. They actually really do have healthy immune systems, not just the appearance (absence of symptoms).

originally posted by: FinallyAwake
Cytokine storms are also raging among US patients. “I’ve seen plenty of it,” says Roberto Caricchio, chief of rheumatology at Temple University in Philadelphia. Precise data aren’t in yet, but he says that a “sizable fraction” — perhaps 20 to 30 percent — of patients with severe cases and lung symptoms have signs of a cytokine storm"

Doesn't surprise me, considering how many people get sick from the flu all the time. This is proof of an unhealthy person with a weak immune system, regardless of how healthy they appear to be when they are not sick.

Someone with a truly healthy immune system doesn't get sick from colds, flu, etc, although may experience minor symptoms if they get heavy close exposure or get exposed to an especially virulent form (like CV).

a reply to: Agit8dChop



Talk about a fecking chocolate teapot!

Is it a magic badge that wards off Covid 19 ffs?

A mask would be far cheaper surely, and might even come in handy at some point!

sry edit