Corona Virus Updates Part 6

uk will go 1.5k deaths by the end of the week sunday

uk deaths will be 1.5-1.8 in 2 weeks

uk deaths will be 2.1k deaths in 3 weeks

uk death might reach 3k deaths in week 4 or 5 then lower after 1 week to 2.5

this is my personal incite for a total death for the uk death toll for 150k-170k and that's a low figure

originally posted by: pasiphae
The number of people initially cleared of the new coronavirus but then positive again in N. Korea has risen to 116 (it was 51 last week).

www.reuters.com...

No wonder antibody testing is important. Are the initial tests and tests to check it has cleared reliable. What about the millions that have had the Chrojan virus and recovered who cannot be tracked thus possibly susceptible to re-infection and how do we deal with the unknown because they could be asympt. again.

Combine the above with the mutation risks etc. It doesn't seem a good prospect for the future management of the outbreak/waves.

originally posted by: doggodlol
uk will go 1.5k deaths by the end of the week sunday

uk deaths will be 1.5-1.8 in 2 weeks

uk deaths will be 2.1k deaths in 3 weeks

uk death might reach 3k deaths in week 4 or 5 then lower after 1 week to 2.5

this is my personal incite for a total death for the uk death toll for 150k-170k and that's a low figure

Uk deaths in hospitals are already running at 11.5k.

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

uk deaths with ons figures are at 20k -25k uk

originally posted by: pasiphae
Woman in Charlotte NC gets Covid but hadn't left her house in 3 weeks. Husband does all the grocery shopping and they've been staying in different rooms. A woman dropped groceries off for her who later tested positive but they only said hi from a distance.

www.wcnc.com... -fd2f-4a36-bf3e-16beca4104c4?fbclid=IwAR0k69QpRoCTx9hVyjjokfX5Oxqsf2TUg8kjs2_KYdRIIsjxN-d7uYB8AyI

Your link didn't work for me.
This one Should work.

they mean daily deaths. 1.5 - 1.8k daily deaths in the next two weeks, and so on..

I personally don't think that will happen. I believe the UK's max daily deaths will be 1k daily deaths and no more than that.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: doggodlol
uk will go 1.5k deaths by the end of the week sunday

uk deaths will be 1.5-1.8 in 2 weeks

uk deaths will be 2.1k deaths in 3 weeks

uk death might reach 3k deaths in week 4 or 5 then lower after 1 week to 2.5

this is my personal incite for a total death for the uk death toll for 150k-170k and that's a low figure

Uk deaths in hospitals are already running at 11.5k.

So France has another 4 weeks of lockdown, until 11th May, and after that, things will open progessively.

i.e. Some areas might not open so soon, like those that are currently hotspots, The Grand-Est, and Ile-de-France.
Restaurants, Cafés and Hotels will stay closed though, so a packed lunch will be in order.

Masks are to become the norm, at least on Public Transport, and maybe in confined public areas (Shops, etc, I expect).

At least Macron said we weren't properly prepared to begin with (an apology!), but that we will learn from this.

Testing will be done mainly for the old people and people with Medical conditions, and anyone who presents symptoms.
This obviously leaves out any asymptomatic cases, which may be worrying.

He doesn't rule out that the lockdown would go beyond 11th May, depending on the situation.
At least he was clear, and didn't faff around.

Here's a little recap quote from the BBC Live Feed At 20.43 :

The lockdown, Macron said, would be extended until 11 May.

Under the rules, which are enforced by police, anyone who goes outside is required to carry a document stating their reason for leaving home.

Here’s what else he said:

- He thanked essential workers in all sectors for “allowing our nation to continue to operate” during the pandemic
- He admitted the French government was not prepared for the crisis, acknowledging shortcomings in delivering medical supplies to hospitals
- France’s borders will remain closed to non-EU countries until further notice
- Restaurants, bars, cinemas and other public venues will remain closed, and festivals cannot be held until mid-July
- The elderly, and those with severe disabilities or suffering from chronic illnesses, must remain confined even after restrictions begin being eased
- Schools, colleges and high schools will gradually reopen from 11 May
- All people with symptoms of coronavirus will be tested from 11 May
- In co-operation with its EU partners, France will ramp up research into developing a vaccine against coronavirus

From Guardian Live Feed :

- 8.14pm : A Sailor on board the USS Theodore Roosevelt has died from COVID-19.

A member of the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt has died 11 days after the aircraft carrier’s captain was fired for pressing his concern that the US Navy had done too little to safeguard his crew.

The sailor is the first active-duty military member to die since the start of the outbreak.

- 8.40pm : " Brazil is likely to have 12x more cases of the Virus, a study suggests ".

Brazil is likely to have 12 times more cases than are being officially reported by the country’s government, with too little testing and long waits to confirm the results, a study suggests.

Researchers at a consortium of Brazilian universities and institutes examined the ratio of cases resulting in deaths up to 10 April, considering cases ending in recovery or death while excluding patients still fighting the virus. They then compared that ratio with the expected death rates based on the age of patients from the World Health Organization.

The higher-than-expected death rate in Brazil based on the official figures indicates there are many more cases of the virus than are being counted, with the study estimating only 8% of cases are being reported.

Doctors working in emergency and intensive care have been warning that the government is vastly underreporting the figures

More in the Guardian Article dedicated to the Subject.

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
a reply to: pasiphae

South Korea

DARN IT! Too late to edit. Thanks for catching it quick

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: pasiphae
The number of people initially cleared of the new coronavirus but then positive again in N. Korea has risen to 116 (it was 51 last week).

www.reuters.com...

No wonder antibody testing is important. Are the initial tests and tests to check it has cleared reliable. What about the millions that have had the Chrojan virus and recovered who cannot be tracked thus possibly susceptible to re-infection and how do we deal with the unknown because they could be asympt. again.

Combine the above with the mutation risks etc. It doesn't seem a good prospect for the future management of the outbreak/waves.

Yes I agree and I hope you noted that I goofed and it's S. Korea. My thoughts are also that excitement surrounding using blood from recovered patients to give antibodies to the sick.... may have come too soon.

a reply to: pasiphae

I thought it weird N.Korea was being so open lol

Were going to just have to focus on a treatment
only way forward in my estimation

understanding the virus may take as long as the projected vaccine
which may prove ineffective.

a reply to: all2human
How come a vaccine for the common cold has never been made?

It's interesting how a vaccine for covid-19 is being slow walked.

In April of 2009 Dr fauci promised that one would be ready very quickly for H1N1. By October 2009, the CDC was overseeing the newly developed vaccines distribution.

originally posted by: Itisnowagain
a reply to: all2human
How come a vaccine for the common cold has never been made?

There is just too many variants of the virus's that make up the common cold.

Scientific American link
and
WebMD link.
Of the ~200 variants, ~160 are rhinovirus's, and less than 15% are of the coronavirus type.
Due to that discrepancy, they would focus their work on the Rhinovirus's more than the Coronavirus type.

If COVID-19 has only a handful or two Major variants, then it is possible a Vaccine could be made, or maybe two or three, grouping 3-5 of the variants together.
There seems to be thousands of Minor variants of COVID-19, though, but a large number could be wiped out within one Major Variant Vaccine.

Time will tell I suppose.

New modeling data says COVID-19 peak in Texas is 2 weeks away

...which will be about the time that the initial cases from Easter Sunday church services hits. While many churches practiced online streaming, some had parking lot (or dive-in theater) services and some had actual "in person" services.

Texas has lagged behind a lot of states with its testing. It looks as if we're now processing an average of 3,000-4,000 tests per day (which is better news.)

From the Guardian Live Feed :

- 9.26pm : " The UK missed three opportunities to be part of an EU scheme to bulk-buy masks, gowns and gloves and has been absent from key talks about future purchases "

European doctors and nurses are preparing to receive the first of €1.5bn (£1.3bn) worth of personal protective equipment (PPE) within days or a maximum of two weeks through a joint procurement scheme involving 25 countries and eight companies, according to internal EU documents.

The EU’s swift work has led to offers of medical equipment, including masks, overalls and goggles, in excess of the number requested, a spokesman for the European commission said. The EU is separately establishing stockpiles within member states, with the first being set up in Romania.

More in the Guardian Article dedicated to this.

Wuhan lab was performing coronavirus experiments on bats from the caves where the disease is believed to have originated - with a £3m grant from the US

The laboratory at the centre of scrutiny over the pandemic has been carrying out research on bats from the cave which scientists believe is the original source of the devastating outbreak.

Documents obtained by The Mail on Sunday show the Wuhan Institute of Virology undertook coronavirus experiments on mammals captured more than 1,000 miles away in Yunnan – funded by a $3.7 million grant from the US government.

Sequencing of the Covid-19 genome has traced it to bats found in Yunnan's caves.

It comes after this newspaper revealed last week that Ministers here now fear that the pandemic could have been caused by a virus leaking from the institute.

Senior Government sources said that while 'the balance of scientific advice' was still that the deadly virus was first transmitted to humans from a live animal market in Wuhan, an accident at the laboratory in the Chinese city was 'no longer being discounted'.

According to one unverified claim, scientists at the institute could have become infected after being sprayed with blood containing the virus, and then passed it on to the local community.

Senior Ministers say that while the latest intelligence does not dispute the virus was 'zoonotic' – originating in animals – it no longer rules out that the virus first spread to humans after leaking from a Wuhan laboratory.

Last week, further doubt was cast on the animal market theory after Cao Bin, a doctor at the Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, highlighted research showing that 13 of the first 41 patients diagnosed with the infection had not had any contact with the market. 'It seems clear that the seafood market is not the only origin of the virus,' he said.

The £30 million Wuhan Institute of Virology, the most advanced laboratory of its type on the Chinese mainland, is based ten miles from the now infamous wildlife market.

Last night, Anthony Bellotti, president of the US pressure group White Coat Waste, condemned his government for spending tax dollars in China, adding: 'Animals infected with viruses or otherwise sickened and abused in Chinese labs reportedly may be sold to wet markets for consumption once experiments are done.'

US Congressman Matt Gaetz said: 'I'm disgusted to learn that for years the US government has been funding dangerous and cruel animal experiments at the Wuhan Institute, which may have contributed to the global spread of coronavirus, and research at other labs in China that have virtually no oversight from US authorities.'

Daily Mail

Los Angeles models show 95% of residents will be infected if stay-at-home order is dropped now

A model by Los Angeles County predicts that 95% or residents will be infected with coronavirus if the stay-at-home order is lifted now. If current levels are maintained, about 30% of the county’s 10 million residents will contract the virus, the model shows. What the model does not address is how long the physical distancing needs to remain in place. In order to drop the infection level to just over 5%, even stronger physical distancing measures will need to be implemented, according to the model.

CNN live feed www.cnn.com...

a reply to: Byrd

Hawaii shows a major improvement in the outlook. We have extra beds! Mortality numbers are way, way down.

But the peak is extended. The curve has been very flattened.