Corona Virus Updates Part 6

a reply to: MrRCflying

Like bringing the water temperature up to boiling, just a little at a time. Desensitizes the general public, instead of the shock number of almost 200,000 deaths. It also encourages the "it's just a flu" and 'hoax' narrative. For most, it is a slow moving train wreck, and they can't wrap thier minds around the end totals. We think in the here and now, with some awareness of the immediate future, but it is hard to conseptualize the long range, even a few months out.

Yes, you nailed it.

With states opening back up in many areas this week, I think the "train wreck" is going to start speeding up again. Most people have not and will not follow any of the distancing suggestions...hell, most can't even follow the one-way signs on the aisle floors that have been installed at the stores. That's when we will see areas closing down again and the 2nd wave of "stay-at-home" orders.

I have given in to the idea that I will need to continue following distancing guidance as best I can for at least the next year. I expect to get COVID-19 one way or another eventually, but since we do not know if people will truly be "immune" after the 1st infection...I would much rather hold it off as long as I can so more research can be done.

Would you rather get it now with all the unknowns and craziness or be a little patient with distancing guidelines and possibly hold it off until actual WORKING options have been found.

originally posted by: jsjAmeicanMo
a reply to: MrRCflying

Like bringing the water temperature up to boiling, just a little at a time. Desensitizes the general public, instead of the shock number of almost 200,000 deaths. It also encourages the "it's just a flu" and 'hoax' narrative. For most, it is a slow moving train wreck, and they can't wrap thier minds around the end totals. We think in the here and now, with some awareness of the immediate future, but it is hard to conseptualize the long range, even a few months out.

Yes, you nailed it.

With states opening back up in many areas this week, I think the "train wreck" is going to start speeding up again. Most people have not and will not follow any of the distancing suggestions...hell, most can't even follow the one-way signs on the aisle floors that have been installed at the stores. That's when we will see areas closing down again and the 2nd wave of "stay-at-home" orders.

I have given in to the idea that I will need to continue following distancing guidance as best I can for at least the next year. I expect to get COVID-19 one way or another eventually, but since we do not know if people will truly be "immune" after the 1st infection...I would much rather hold it off as long as I can so more research can be done.

Would you rather get it now with all the unknowns and craziness or be a little patient with distancing guidelines and possibly hold it off until actual WORKING options have been found.

I had to go to the Tractor Supply store the other day for a new wheel or innertube for my small traioler so I could get some yard work done. I have been staying in, and only made a couple of trips out, so I risked it.

I wore my P100 resparator. The place was busy and cramped. There were signs on the door that masks were required, yet there were 4 people in there without masks. Nothing was being said to them at all.

I beat feet out, and went to another place that was way less busy, they were wiping down carts, had huge signs about masks, and no browsing, get in get what you need, and get out.

So, yea, now that people think we are on the down turn they are going to ignore the warnings, the mitigation, and I believe we will see an uptick.

originally posted by: MrRCflying
That 60,000 estimate keeps creeping up. First it went to 65,000, then 67,000, and is now 72,000+ but it will have to be revised upward again, as the prediction model is not matching reality.

What's happening is that people aren't wearing masks, disinfecting, and social distancing. That, and it's now hitting the areas with less health care (poorer workers and now factories and prisons.)

It has a large effect on the rate of spread. One person can take it home to their family and their family then takes it throughout the community. In a number of cases, the affected person picks it up at a crowded work area (meat packing plant) in one county but takes it home to another county where they live.

That's what's going on in Amarillo, Texas where the Feds are going in to try and stop the spread.

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: MrRCflying
That 60,000 estimate keeps creeping up. First it went to 65,000, then 67,000, and is now 72,000+ but it will have to be revised upward again, as the prediction model is not matching reality.

What's happening is that people aren't wearing masks, disinfecting, and social distancing. That, and it's now hitting the areas with less health care (poorer workers and now factories and prisons.)

It has a large effect on the rate of spread. One person can take it home to their family and their family then takes it throughout the community. In a number of cases, the affected person picks it up at a crowded work area (meat packing plant) in one county but takes it home to another county where they live.

That's what's going on in Amarillo, Texas where the Feds are going in to try and stop the spread.

I don't disagree with your statements at all.

Still, I don't see the 60,000 deaths projections being real in any way. It was dropped to that for public consumption. I believe they knew the 100 - 240k number was realistic, but based on public reaction it was decided to throw out a lower number and bump that number up over time, so it was not as much of a shock.

I do think it is entirely possible, that we could reach an even higher number of deaths because of the reasons you stated.

An exploratory type paper, done "in silico" (in other words, in investigating electronic records rather than other methods)
Identifying common pharmacotherapies associated with reduced COVID-19 morbidity using electronic health records

From the abstract:

: Absent a vaccine or any established treatments for the novel and highly infectious coronavirus-19 (COVID-19), rapid efforts to identify potential therapeutics are required. Objective: To identify commonly-prescribed medications that may be associated with lesser risk of morbidity with COVID-19 across 5 Eastern Massachusetts hospitals. Design: In silico cohort using electronic health records between 7/1/2019 and 4/07/2020. Setting: Outpatient, emergency department and inpatient settings from 2 academic medical centers and 3 community hospitals. Participants: All individuals presenting to a clinical site and undergoing COVID-19 testing. Main Outcome or Measure: Inpatient hospitalization; documented requirement for mechanical ventilation

...and to cut to the chase, bottom line is that this investigation of medical records found three drugs that they associated with cases that turned out better: ibuprofen, valacyclovir, and naproxen. The takeaway here is that if you get sick, reach for the naproxen or ibuprofen, as you prefer.

I seem to recall another paper or story also suggesting this. This is more solid data, though given how common these drugs are, it could be coincidental.

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: MrRCflying
That 60,000 estimate keeps creeping up. First it went to 65,000, then 67,000, and is now 72,000+ but it will have to be revised upward again, as the prediction model is not matching reality.

What's happening is that people aren't wearing masks, disinfecting, and social distancing. That, and it's now hitting the areas with less health care (poorer workers and now factories and prisons.)

It has a large effect on the rate of spread. One person can take it home to their family and their family then takes it throughout the community. In a number of cases, the affected person picks it up at a crowded work area (meat packing plant) in one county but takes it home to another county where they live.

That's what's going on in Amarillo, Texas where the Feds are going in to try and stop the spread.

I don't disagree with your statements at all.

Still, I don't see the 60,000 deaths projections being real in any way. It was dropped to that for public consumption. I believe they knew the 100 - 240k number was realistic, but based on public reaction it was decided to throw out a lower number and bump that number up over time, so it was not as much of a shock.

I do think it is entirely possible, that we could reach an even higher number of deaths because of the reasons you stated.

I would disagree, having looked at the models. Remember, the initial range of the R0 number was all over the place. As we got better info, the R0 number changed to quite low and then bounced back up.

The idea of "they" knowing something isn't realistic, IMHO... because the modeling was coming from a lot of different unconnected sources and many published the details of the models so that other researchers and the public could check them. If it had been some sort of coordinated effort, this wouldn't have happened.

I agree, however, that we're going to see higher numbers. This is going to hammer the lower end of the job market in the US.

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: MrRCflying
That 60,000 estimate keeps creeping up. First it went to 65,000, then 67,000, and is now 72,000+ but it will have to be revised upward again, as the prediction model is not matching reality.

What's happening is that people aren't wearing masks, disinfecting, and social distancing. That, and it's now hitting the areas with less health care (poorer workers and now factories and prisons.)

It has a large effect on the rate of spread. One person can take it home to their family and their family then takes it throughout the community. In a number of cases, the affected person picks it up at a crowded work area (meat packing plant) in one county but takes it home to another county where they live.

That's what's going on in Amarillo, Texas where the Feds are going in to try and stop the spread.

I don't disagree with your statements at all.

Still, I don't see the 60,000 deaths projections being real in any way. It was dropped to that for public consumption. I believe they knew the 100 - 240k number was realistic, but based on public reaction it was decided to throw out a lower number and bump that number up over time, so it was not as much of a shock.

I do think it is entirely possible, that we could reach an even higher number of deaths because of the reasons you stated.

I would disagree, having looked at the models. Remember, the initial range of the R0 number was all over the place. As we got better info, the R0 number changed to quite low and then bounced back up.

The idea of "they" knowing something isn't realistic, IMHO... because the modeling was coming from a lot of different unconnected sources and many published the details of the models so that other researchers and the public could check them. If it had been some sort of coordinated effort, this wouldn't have happened.

I agree, however, that we're going to see higher numbers. This is going to hammer the lower end of the job market in the US.

Point taken...

Since this is a conspiracy forum, let's call it my pet theory.

I don't think anyone could "know" for certainty, just too many factors. It is just my opinion that there were beliefs (which were publicly announced) that a predicted number of deaths between 100,000 and 240,000 was reasonable and likely.

We then had that projection cut by half or better to around 60,000.

Now we are beginning to see the number creep back up, to possibly 180,000 before the end of summer. Pretty much the average of the 2, midline.

It just seems suspect to me at least, the predicted number was dropped so low, now it is slowly moving back toward that midline.

I could be way off base here, who knows, but I believe there was a high level of confidence in the 100 - 240k number. Maybe, just maybe the 60k number was thrown out after the fact to try and quell fears, and now that things are north of that, they are slowly upping the numbers back towards that original midline.

Either way, it has not been good, it will continue to not be good for some time yet. Nothing like we have ever seen, and hopefully when it is all said and done, we will never see anything like it again.

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: peter_kandra

Again, the deaths are not being over inflated, if anything they are being under reported.

Please stop spreading ignorance!

Maybe in China they're being under reported, but not here in the US.
Die for any reason and test positive, you died of Covid. How's that not over inflated?

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: MrRCflying
That 60,000 estimate keeps creeping up. First it went to 65,000, then 67,000, and is now 72,000+ but it will have to be revised upward again, as the prediction model is not matching reality.

What's happening is that people aren't wearing masks, disinfecting, and social distancing. That, and it's now hitting the areas with less health care (poorer workers and now factories and prisons.)

It has a large effect on the rate of spread. One person can take it home to their family and their family then takes it throughout the community. In a number of cases, the affected person picks it up at a crowded work area (meat packing plant) in one county but takes it home to another county where they live.

That's what's going on in Amarillo, Texas where the Feds are going in to try and stop the spread.

I don't disagree with your statements at all.

Still, I don't see the 60,000 deaths projections being real in any way. It was dropped to that for public consumption. I believe they knew the 100 - 240k number was realistic, but based on public reaction it was decided to throw out a lower number and bump that number up over time, so it was not as much of a shock.

I do think it is entirely possible, that we could reach an even higher number of deaths because of the reasons you stated.

I would disagree, having looked at the models. Remember, the initial range of the R0 number was all over the place. As we got better info, the R0 number changed to quite low and then bounced back up.

The idea of "they" knowing something isn't realistic, IMHO... because the modeling was coming from a lot of different unconnected sources and many published the details of the models so that other researchers and the public could check them. If it had been some sort of coordinated effort, this wouldn't have happened.

I agree, however, that we're going to see higher numbers. This is going to hammer the lower end of the job market in the US.

Point taken...

Since this is a conspiracy forum, let's call it my pet theory.

I don't think anyone could "know" for certainty, just too many factors. It is just my opinion that there were beliefs (which were publicly announced) that a predicted number of deaths between 100,000 and 240,000 was reasonable and likely.

We then had that projection cut by half or better to around 60,000.

Now we are beginning to see the number creep back up, to possibly 180,000 before the end of summer. Pretty much the average of the 2, midline.

It just seems suspect to me at least, the predicted number was dropped so low, now it is slowly moving back toward that midline.

I could be way off base here, who knows, but I believe there was a high level of confidence in the 100 - 240k number. Maybe, just maybe the 60k number was thrown out after the fact to try and quell fears, and now that things are north of that, they are slowly upping the numbers back towards that original midline.

Either way, it has not been good, it will continue to not be good for some time yet. Nothing like we have ever seen, and hopefully when it is all said and done, we will never see anything like it again.

MrRCFlying,

I have followed all of your posts closely. Your theory is actually pretty accurate as far as I can tell. Based on available data, nothing should have compelled them to drop the death total to 60,000 at that time. If anything, they should have been raising it.

I only jumped in to say that the information I have seen will put us closer to 500,000 deaths in the USA alone by the end of this year. Everyone is forgetting that this will cycle through every human 3 times. That is by design. We are not even through the first cycle, and likely won't be until late September - early October.

Keep your eyes out for what happens to the asymptomatic carriers from the first cycle once the 2nd cycle starts up. This is going to continue to get worse. We are looking at a 2 year minimum for all 3 cycles to complete.

Vaccines will not work. I repeat.... Vaccines will not work. The only thing we can do is a repeating pattern of social distancing, opening back up slowly, shutting down again, social distancing, opening back up slowly, shutting down, etc.

Numbers update for Europe, and Elsewhere (No BNO) :







www.worldometers.info...

originally posted by: MrRCflying
In your opinion.

No, it is actually a fact that many Doctors, nurses, and even State Health comissioners and others have attested to.

IMHO, because of lack of testing the cases are being well under reported. Although the mortality percentage may be much lower than originally thought.

Testing will show that yes, many more people have died with the virus - not necessarily becasue of it.

Can we agree to having different opinions on this?

Sure... and I'll agree that mine is the right one.

J/k

originally posted by: MrRCflying
Yes, for most people, it will be a flu like illness that they will recover from. However, not since 1918 has a 'flu' killed over 60,000 people in 60 days, in a season, yes some have.

Many have, but your number is wrong.

Where in the heck did you pull the '60 days' out of? It has been here since December, if not November or even earlier.

Thats basically a full flu season.

So, yes... it is just like a bad flu season - but not even the worst of them, and nothing whatsoever like the Spanish flu, not even remotely close. That killed a lot of children and young/healthy men and women.

a reply to: tennisdawg

So great to see you back...many of us have been wondering if you were ok.
Will it be safe for those of us who are immune compromised that are staying at home,
staying away from others, doing curbside groceries washing everything to be able
to visit each other on our own property?
Ex. My best friend also immune compromised is also me coach in training Border Collies
for competitions in sheepdog trials. I have a 17 mo old dog that's been on his farm in lock down since
13 March & I have been in since 20 March. Is it safe for us to hang out on the farm
& work dogs? Sorry but this stuff scares the bloody crap out of me.

I don't even walk me other dog at the campground when people are out.

Virginia Cases 19,493 Plus 821 New Cases Deaths 684 plus 24 New Deaths

Cheers
Ektar

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: MrRCflying
Yes, for most people, it will be a flu like illness that they will recover from. However, not since 1918 has a 'flu' killed over 60,000 people in 60 days, in a season, yes some have.

Many have, but your number is wrong.

Where in the heck did you pull the '60 days' out of? It has been here since December, if not November or even earlier.

Thats basically a full flu season.

So, yes... it is just like a bad flu season - but not even the worst of them, and nothing whatsoever like the Spanish flu, not even remotely close. That killed a lot of children and young/healthy men and women.

Ummm.... Not that hard to look up. LOL

March 4th, 2020 the United States had a confirmed death toll of 11. As of May 3rd, 2020, the confirmed death toll in the US was 68,598.

The last I knew there were 31 days in March. So March 4th to March 31st is 27 days.

Last I knew April has 30 days, plus the 3 days into May, so 33.

27 + 33 = 60 days.

68,598 - 11 (from before March 4th) = 68,587.

So, yes, 68,587 confirmed deaths due to covid19 in the last 60 days. As you can see, not pulled from anywhere other than data.

Please point me a flu season that has taken 60,000+ lives in 60 days. I will wait.

No cheating now with "the numbers are inflated", I want to see the data.

Worldometers Data

originally posted by: MrRCflying
Still, I don't see the 60,000 deaths projections being real in any way. It was dropped to that for public consumption. I believe they knew the 100 - 240k number was realistic, but based on public reaction it was decided to throw out a lower number and bump that number up over time, so it was not as much of a shock.

They were using a "everyone does social distancing" model... I don't believe many of them thought that there would be marching and demonstrations and attempts to fight the social distancing rules. I think that they're now looking at the "at least half of Americans aren't going to distance" model.

I don't think anyone could "know" for certainty, just too many factors.

Oh, I will definitely agree with the "too many factors." That's why the predictions keep changing... the differences in populations. A lot of the papers I haven't posted go into how seemingly trivial factors might affect things.

Now we are beginning to see the number creep back up, to possibly 180,000 before the end of summer. Pretty much the average of the 2, midline.

It just seems suspect to me at least, the predicted number was dropped so low, now it is slowly moving back toward that midline.

Nobody modeled super-sized churches and pentecostals deciding that Jesus would protect them if they all showed up in a crowd, or people setting up underground bars, etc, etc. Or that the idea that the virus isn't that serious and it's safe to go get haircuts or get your nails done, etc, because it's no worse than a cold.

CNN has an article on this issue that says the models assumed that schools would be closed and back in early April, when the models changed again, America was hunkering down and taking a lot of precautions and assumed (ohboy) that we'd follow this and stay locked down until August.

Which ain't happening.

I could be way off base here, who knows, but I believe there was a high level of confidence in the 100 - 240k number. Maybe, just maybe the 60k number was thrown out after the fact to try and quell fears, and now that things are north of that, they are slowly upping the numbers back towards that original midline.

Either way, it has not been good, it will continue to not be good for some time yet. Nothing like we have ever seen, and hopefully when it is all said and done, we will never see anything like it again.

My daughter is working to change the model of how she's doing business, and I'm working on the same thing. However, a lot of folks want things to go back the way they were and aren't looking to changes to "modernize" or "futurize" their businesses and activities.

Anyway, we shall see. At this rate, deaths at the 150k level by the end of the year is not unrealistic.

I hope not, but what I've been seeing recently suggests this....

originally posted by: MrRCflying
a reply to: Observationalist
I have no doubt this kind of thing is happening all over. On a normal day incopitence and gross negligence is more rampant than it should be.

Running on little sleep and under stress, will lead to some bad choices. It sounds like there are a lot of bad choices being made there. Makes you wonder if the doctors and nurses at that place were all the bottom third of thier class or something.

Ummm... did you even listen to it???

Oh... my... GOD...

That is not what this nurse was describing. This was overt - not even negligence, it sounded like outright MURDER to me.

Un-freakin-believable.

originally posted by: Ektar this stuff scares the bloody crap out of me.

mission accomplished.

originally posted by: Ektar
a reply to: tennisdawg

So great to see you back...many of us have been wondering if you were ok.
Will it be safe for those of us who are immune compromised that are staying at home,
staying away from others, doing curbside groceries washing everything to be able
to visit each other on our own property?
Ex. My best friend also immune compromised is also me coach in training Border Collies
for competitions in sheepdog trials. I have a 17 mo old dog that's been on his farm in lock down since
13 March & I have been in since 20 March. Is it safe for us to hang out on the farm
& work dogs? Sorry but this stuff scares the bloody crap out of me.
Ektar

Yes, probably. One model I didn't post here talked about people establishing "bubbles"... so you interact with each other but only one person in the entire group interacts with the outside world.

I shop for and deliver groceries for someone who's immunocompromised. She meets me wearing a mask, I wear a mask, and shop at a store that has good sanitation.

originally posted by: tennisdawg
Vaccines will not work. I repeat.... Vaccines will not work.

That I already knew...

The only thing we can do is a repeating pattern of social distancing, opening back up slowly, shutting down again, social distancing, opening back up slowly, shutting down, etc. gather everyone into one large 3 story wooden building, light it on fire, and sing koom-bay-yah until we're all dead.

There, fixed that for ya...

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: Ektar
a reply to: tennisdawg

So great to see you back...many of us have been wondering if you were ok.
Will it be safe for those of us who are immune compromised that are staying at home,
staying away from others, doing curbside groceries washing everything to be able
to visit each other on our own property?
Ex. My best friend also immune compromised is also me coach in training Border Collies
for competitions in sheepdog trials. I have a 17 mo old dog that's been on his farm in lock down since
13 March & I have been in since 20 March. Is it safe for us to hang out on the farm
& work dogs? Sorry but this stuff scares the bloody crap out of me.
Ektar

Yes, probably.

Ah, Byrd is tennisdawg... I was wondering...