Corona Virus Updates Part 5

a reply to: pasiphae

Yeah, if you use the full year data from 2017, and the current NYS population, it works out to 425/day.

But, 2019Q1 was particularly high because of Flu deaths. Q3 is always much lower than Q1 for Northern states.

ETA: something is probably wrong with my numbers, they look too far off. Maybe a factor of 3.
Unfortunately, I cant recreate it right at the moment.

OTOH, even if you use the 2017 full year number of 425/day (which is obviously low for Mar 2020), the CV19 number is still probably below the baseline, and a lot of the CV19 attributed deaths look like people that would have died if they got the Flu-B or just happened to have CV19 when they died from other causes.

originally posted by: angelchemuel
So anybody want to comment on the second wave starting around Asia while Western countries haven't even hit the peak of the first one?

Asian countries impose new lockdowns

Rainbows
Jane

I believe that they relaxed standards far too early and underestimated the situation -- it was the apparently asymptomatic carriers who acted as a reserve. Once standards were relaxed, the virus re-emerged.

That's my assessment. The mileage of professional epidemiologists may vary.

Bus driver Jason Hargrove spoke to the people of Detroit on video March 21, trying to get them to take the coronavirus pandemic seriously.

He was upset that a woman had taken no measures to cover her coughing when she was on his bus.
"For us to get through this and get over this, y'all need to take this seriously," he said with an expletive thrown in. ... There's folks dying out here."
Four days later Hargrove, 50, got sick. He died Wednesday night.
It isn't clear how he got Covid-19.

www.cnn.com...

a reply to: Mamana12

This is what I was thinking when Sophie Gregoire-Trudeau tested positive early on. And I thought the same when they announced Boris Johnson tested positive. I am absolutely NOT a denier, or a "nothingburger" person. This virus is very very real and killing people and destroying lives, but I do question a lot of the high profile cases. I believe many of them are just like you said, to reinforce the "stay home and isolate" message. Maybe because they realize so many of us are like belligerent children who simply refuse to follow instructions and they truly do want to "flatten the curve." Makes complete sense.

Then there are the little niggling suspicions in the back of my head that keep whispering "what else is going on?" "where is this going?" "what is coming?" "what is the ulterior motive?"

I have to wonder what else, if anything, is going on right now while the whole world is focusing on this virus. (Whenever there is some wildly sensational news, I always go looking to see what else is going on that they are distracting us from.)

Maybe this is Mother Earth cleansing herself. Maybe this was man-made. Maybe it is a bio-weapon. Maybe it’s an accident. No one knows and will we ever really know?

I do know that the walls are methodically closing in on us. First they stopped most international flights. Next they closed schools. Then all stores that are “non-essential” closed. Then they closed the Canada-US border. Next they closed the provincial borders. Then they closed playgounds and parks. Now it is an actual crime (punishable by fines ~$200-$10000) for gathering in groups or being closer than 2 meters to another person. Are they making it illegal to gather in groups so that people cannot rally together and revolt about something that is going to happen soon? Hasn’t this happened at some point in history before?

Perhaps war? Trump ordered 3M to stop exporting masks to Canada today. Trudeau reminded him that we export essential goods, resources and health-care workers to them as well. Trade war? The last thing we need right now is a f#ing trade war along with everything else going on!

One world government? Global currency? Some kind of scenario where the majority of us are slaves to the elite rulers? I don’t know. These are the things that creep into your mind when all you see and hear all day long is Covid this and Covid that, new rules and restrictions to “protect us” and everything you’ve ever known is changed forever.

I’ve said a million times before “what if the movies that come out about various SHTF scenarios are to gradually prepare society before some of these things really play out?” Elysium, Hunger Games, Contagion, Legion, Mad Max, Matrix, all of the crazy sci-fi movies. The current reality is so bizarre now that any of those far-fetched story lines could actually happen and it would be no more weird than what is going on now.

Maybe it’s all true and this really is for our protection and the world will come out of this on the other side a better place. I have little faith in that though.

Those are my rambling thoughts for tonight. Maybe the isolation is playing with my mind, or maybe I just spend too much time on ATS.

Dr Jerome Adams.... US Surgeon General.... has a video about how to make your own mask. If he had listened to me over a month ago he'd know I was saying the gov needed to be doing this ASAP haha! Sorry I can't embed. Facebook is the first place I saw it....

www.facebook.com...

a reply to: pasiphae

Do you think the efficacy of a homemade mask is mostly in protection for the wearer, or is it in the interest of preventing those who may be infected from distributing the virus?

Ultimately the point may be moot, but it is of interest and the guidelines seem to be aimed toward the latter.

Stay well all....
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originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: pasiphae

Do you think the efficacy of a homemade mask is mostly in protection for the wearer, or is it in the interest of preventing those who may be infected from distributing the virus?

Ultimately the point may be moot, but it is of interest and the guidelines seem to be aimed toward the latter.

Depending on how well you make your own mask (I like that he made it very layered which is what I've said to do) it's going to keep you from asymptomatically spreading it and also keeps it from going into your nose and throat. Optimal you should wear glasses and even something over your ears. I ordered some ski scarves from Amazon... they are like the neck of a turtleneck shirt and you pull it up over your nose/mouth. Keeping the particles from going in or out as much as you can is best. I haven't tried doing it the way his video shows (and multiple on youtube) but it doesn't seem tight enough to me.. it really needs to fight tight on your face. My daughter made a crochet mask with the ear loops and I can mold it to my face but it just isn't tight like it should be so I've used a shoelace to loop through the ear things so I can tie it behind my head (layered fabric on the inside). When I get the face scarves I'll use that over the crochet mask. It's not fun to breathe in. I hate to think how hard it is for healthcare workers with the correct PPE. Looks suffocating.

Update: April 4, 2020 Saturday Tokyo time: (don't worry about it, doesn't matter any more )

It's the weekend now and people are asked to stay home, but will they with all the cherry blossoms blooming now across the nation. I guess I could take the chance and see, but what for. I already know, outside the big cities, its business as usual in many places .

Here are some highlights: Most of these come from the news lines on the net.

1. This is the big one everyone is talking about. Stay tune on this. I wonder if US Pharmaceuticals is stopping the awareness of this. Japan to give virus-hit nations Avigan for free ..The Japanese government plans to provide nations hit by the coronavirus pandemic with the anti-flu drug Avigan developed by a Japanese chemical firm.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters on Friday that the government has so far received requests for the drug from about 30 countries.
Researchers in China say that Avigan proved effectiveness in clinical trials with people infected with the coronavirus.

2. Pelosi or whatever her name is probably.... you get my message here about #1

3. I think Trump knows about the Aviagan drug. Hopefully his hands are not tied on this one. If so, like I said, America is doomed.

4. Tokyo governor lists steps if emergency declared. Those in Tokyo, if they haven't left the city by now, it may just be a bit too late. And yes, I can see the restrictions of "sorry , no gasoline for people leaving Tokyo" You all realize there are neary 25 million or so people in Tokyo and surrounding areas. It can get real bad if people start leaving all at once.

5. Asian airlines to make further flight cuts. I knew that a few days ago. I think Thailand just announced "no entry" from some countries. Feel sorry for those that just wanted to have fun under the sun and said "screw it" I'm going anyway a month ago. Sure hope they have a credit card that still works. Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways announced on Friday that it will cancel about 97 percent of its passenger flights scheduled for April.
Thai Airways International has announced that it will suspend all international passenger flights until May 31.

6. Japan: Govt., LDP agree on $2,800 handout over outbreak. I'm afraid my family doesn't qualify for it. Sure hope we qualify for the US hand out. I mentioned that we are debt free, just have the regular bills, but it still takes about 1700 USD a month to live. Can sardines, anyone.

7. Last year, 32 million foreign visitors traveled to Japan, spending roughly 45 billion dollars. Well, if you go to the tourist areas now, you'll have to walk from your hotel, seems the buses and their companies have all but closed down. It really is a depression at the moment here in many industries. Soon to be at your doorway also.

8. Americans warned to leave Japan or risk long stay as virus cases surge. I mentioned I'm stuck here indefinitely.

9. Coronavirus cases in Japan top 3,000 after record 357 new infections reported Friday. Actually it is higher today. I posted that we will be seeing like 1000 to up to 4000 cases per day, why, the govt. has only tested about 35000 people. So what's the math on that. See where it goes in time. 7 more days people and ... MIM's street talk, gosh I hope not, but people are still riding the trains and subways. Crazy I tell ya.

10. This isn't funny, but really we simply can not buy mask almost anywhere so I started making my own. www.abovetopsecret.com...

11. A government panel of experts is warning the nation’s health care system may collapse if the sharp increase in COVID-19 cases seen recently in urban areas continues, singling out Tokyo, Kanagawa, Aichi, Osaka and Hyogo as areas of particular concern.

12. New corona infection 6 people confirmed in Okinawa Prefecture. 18 cases now. Growing way too fast.

13. Update just now.




April 4, 2020 11:52

A total of 13 new infections have been announced on the 4th, including 6 in Okinawa, 4 in Fukui, 2 in Toyama, and 1 in Nagasaki. The number of people who were confirmed to be infected was 3,142, including those found during airport quarantine and those who returned home on charter aircraft. In addition, the cruise ship has 712 passengers and crew, bringing the total to 3854. On the 4th, one person died in Gifu Prefecture, killing 78 people in Japan and 11 cruise ships, bringing the total to 89 people.

Of the 3142 people who were infected in Japan,
773 in Tokyo,
346 in Osaka,
217 in Kanagawa,
210 in Chiba,
202 in Aichi,
190 in Hokkaido, 190 in
Hyogo. 175 people,
135 people in Saitama prefecture,
118 people in Fukuoka prefecture,
106 people in Kyoto prefecture,
54 people in Ibaraki prefecture,
46 people in Fukui prefecture,
40 people in Gifu prefecture,
35 people in Niigata prefecture, and 35 people in
Oita prefecture. People
: 25 in Gunma,
24 in Ishikawa,
23 in Kochi,
22 in Wakayama,
21 in Nara,
19 in Ehime, 19 in
Miyagi, 18 in Kumamoto
17 in Tochigi,
16 in Shizuoka,
14 in Shiga,
13 in Mie and Hiroshima,
11 in Aomori, 11 in Yamanashi
10 in Akita, Nagano, Nagasaki, and Toyama
9 people in Fukushima and Okayama ▽
8 people in Yamagata ▽
7 people in Yamaguchi and Miyazaki
5 people in Saga ▽
3 people in Tokushima and Kagoshima 2 people in Kagawa.
Okinawa 18 cases


In addition, a total of 14 people have returned from China via charter aircraft, including employees of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, quarantine officers, and those confirmed to have been infected by airport quarantine.

According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, as of the 3rd, 64 people were infected in Japan and 73 people were on cruise ships, as of March 3.

Other news.

1. Why is this: www.msn.com...

2. Italy sees signs of hope despite 766 new virus deaths .

3. Coronavirus quarantine awaits hundreds of Pacific Pathways soldiers heading home to Hawaii. FORT SHAFTER, Hawaii — Nearly 1,400 soldiers who have trained in Thailand since February as part of Pacific Pathways will soon head home to Hawaii — and to a mandated 14-day quarantine to prevent the possible spread of coronavirus.

4. WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has deployed several ships, aircraft and thousands of troops to strengthen counter-narcotics operations in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean and help prevent drugs from coming into the United States, Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced Wednesday.

5. Public will be informed about positive coronavirus cases on Okinawa, US military says. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa — The U.S. military on Okinawa is vowing transparency to its troops, their families and local civilian authorities, days after the Pentagon ordered commanders to stop publicly announcing new coronavirus cases on their bases. I guess things have changed in the last few days.

Some links for ATS members:

www.gstatic.com...
www.dph.illinois.gov...
experience.arcgis.com...
jamanetwork.com...
threadreaderapp.com...
www.westernjournal.com...

Update Apr.03/20
Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Global Cases (by JHU CSSE)

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com...#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Canada *** Total= 12,545 ***
6,101-Quebec, 3,255-Ontario, 1,174-British Columbia, 1,075-Alberta,
220-Saskatchewan, 182-Manitoba, 13-Grand Princess, 91-New Brunswick,
195- Newfoundland & Labrador, 207-Nova Scotia 22-Prince Edward Island,
2- Northwest Territories, 6-Yukon

coronavirus.1point3acres.com... USA & Canada Updates

www.worldometers.info...

a reply to: Trillium

Thanks for the update. Any panic or hysteria going on that side of the world?

originally posted by: musicismagic
a reply to: Trillium

Thanks for the update. Any panic or hysteria going on that side of the world?

Manhattan (NYC) is calm. People are doing their part at least in my neighborhood. Mood is apprehensive but supportive of each other. Unsurprising, nyc citizenry has been supportive of each other in crises in last twenty years, 9/11, Superstorm Sandy.

We knew we were going to get smoked because of density, public transport and international travel. But I don’t see the morale flagging at all. City now giving three meals to anyone who shows up and asks at its 435 feeding stations. Prior it was just for students, but now anyone can have with no questions asked.

So, it’s grim, but we are hanging in. Be safe over there. Have a trip planned to Japan in January. I’ve always wanted to see the annual Jan 4 new japan pro wrestling card at the Tokyo dome and travel. Hoping we can all enjoy the world again before then. Thank you for your street talk throughout these threads!

Be safe and sane!

Texas and Dallas Confirmed Cases

Texas
Cases deaths percent increase
5330 .......90 ........14.16

Dallas
Cases deaths percent increase
921 .......17 ........10.3

Governor Abbot finally issued a stay at home order and closure of nonessential businesses. We're not the last state to get it but we're not early adopters. Dallas County has declared an emergency through May 20 and extended the stay at home order to April 30.

John Wiley Price (a perpetual thorn in a lot of sides) wanted stronger protections for small businesses in the poorer parts of the city -- however, his idea was to not shut down nonessential businesses... and given that the people in these areas tend to have a lot of diabetes and other health problems, I think his plea for them to stay open is very ill-advised.

That said, he does represent the poorest sectors and their road to recovery will be much harder and longer than the wealthy areas.

A number of lar ge chain grocery stores will be making significant changes in the next few weeks, including sneeze guards for cash registers and issuing gloves and masks for cashiers. My local Target is already wiping down carts and they and the Tom Thumb is making regular announcements about keeping your distance.

Some stores will have "one way aisles" and a dedicated entrance and exit with security enforcing the rules.

Jay-Z and Meek Mill's charity is sending surgical masks to prisons for guards, health care workers, and inmates. It's not enough, really, but it's a start.

Grupo Modelo has stopped production of Corona beer. A pity. l like it.

The United States Supreme Court will not hear oral arguments through the end of April.

And has anyone else noticed the stats (10,297 cases reported and 370 deaths) for Louisiana? The deaths and numbers affected are rising at a staggering rate... and this weekend one megachurch vows to bus people in for a huge service. I sincerely hope they arrest the pastor and lock down the church, because this is just going to carry coronavirus to the small townlets where there's no medical facility.

As noted yesterday, the reason for high death rate (close to the same number of cases as Florida... but about twice the death rate) is partly because so many people there are poor and there's high rates of diabetes. The governor finally issued a "stay in place" order 2 weeks ago, but the number is already higher than any other state across the South.

China orders 200,000 body bags from Taiwan

Nothing to see here, virus is gone.

Wave 2 is well under way.

Soul

On the news last night they showed the use of drones to disinfect areas like playgrounds, public places.... etc.
What interested me was the disinfectant they used was Ozonated water. Now if this does work as claimed it most certainly deserves a look, especially as we face shortages on hand sanitizers and efficient cleaning products.

I'm by no means suggesting breathing in ozone as this is bad for the lungs but, when infused in water, there are no direct ill effects.
These ozone units to charge water are relatively cheap to buy and make, would be a great way to decontaminate vegetables and produce without the use of harsh chemicals.

mysunshinecoast.com.au...

"Ozone is a safe and environmentally friendly solution that was proven to kill the SARS coronavirus, it is 3000 times more efficient in killing viruses and bacteria than traditional bleaches and chlorine, ensuring a safer environment for people and waterways"

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: Herbts
No they did not create this virus. They have already said there is nothing in the dna to even suggest that.
Besides wouldn't you want a bio weapon that was more deadly?
What's the use I taking out the old folks and leaving healthy young warriors? How does that help your side if you've created a bioweapon?

Time to stop fantasizing and get it together. The next month is going to be a nightmare for all of us.

It has been said again and again. A bio-weapon may not be meant to kill a lot, just to halt economy, create panic and the such, to create exactly what we are experiencing right now.

Also a lot have said that it doesn't have any markers in it's RNA that indicates it's a bio-weapon, it could also have been a virus mutated artificially (accelerated) in lab (natural mutations accelerated, end result a virus with no markers). We also DO NOT know what type of technology TPTB have. Maybe they can now create a virus without those markers. Having said that, I still do not make out my mind if it's natural or bio-weapon. What I do know is that CCP's actions with selling bad tests kits and masks to other countries is an action to help spread the virus even more. CCP and W.H.O. lying to the rest of the world is also an action to help it spread. So who knows, maybe it was natural but they are using it as weapon anyways.

originally posted by: Mamana12
Street talk from New York city friends on Facebook. They are reporting that this morning they have heard ambulances pretty much non-stop, one after another, all morning. These are people located in Manhattan. I've heard it from three different sources now. I think its safe to assume that most of these ambulances were due to the virus given that they are all remarking on how unusual it is to hear so many ambulances.

Also, for a while now I've been speculating about waste treatment plants posing a risk and whether that is the cause of Laguna Beach having one of the highest infection rates in Orange County. I found this article today warning of the risks of catching the virus from the ocean due to sewage, and confirming that waste treatment plants are being looked at for safety in relation to spreading this virus: www.latimes.com...

Well, that raises a perplexing question: How long can this virus survive in salt water?

originally posted by: Rich Z

originally posted by: Mamana12
Street talk from New York city friends on Facebook. They are reporting that this morning they have heard ambulances pretty much non-stop, one after another, all morning. These are people located in Manhattan. I've heard it from three different sources now. I think its safe to assume that most of these ambulances were due to the virus given that they are all remarking on how unusual it is to hear so many ambulances.

Also, for a while now I've been speculating about waste treatment plants posing a risk and whether that is the cause of Laguna Beach having one of the highest infection rates in Orange County. I found this article today warning of the risks of catching the virus from the ocean due to sewage, and confirming that waste treatment plants are being looked at for safety in relation to spreading this virus: www.latimes.com...

Well, that raises a perplexing question: How long can this virus survive in salt water?

In water period, if it can survive in water that's a really big problem.

Not finding this report on the original doctor who identified the Wuhan virus Dr Al Fen.

Has it been mentioned before Dr Ai fen

Dr. Ai Fen - We are still alive

Dr. Ai Fen is the Director of the ER of Wuhan Central Hospital, in China. She was the first to suspect the severity of the initial COVID-19 cases. She passed this information on to several MDs in her hospital. This information then got passed on to Dr. Li Wenliang.

I then told the truth that on the single day of January 21, there were 1,523 patients who came to the ER, which is three times more than my busiest day in the past. Among them, 655 of them had fever.

originally posted by: angelchemuel
So anybody want to comment on the second wave starting around Asia while Western countries haven't even hit the peak of the first one?

Asian countries impose new lockdowns

Rainbows
Jane

I said it before, and say it again. It is all a mess. What the World should have done is to have agreed on a date for EVERY nation to go into Quarantine at the same time and for the same length. Implement "Economic Freeze" and stop travel of tourists, not cargo.

But alas, CCP and W.H.O. hid the truth and politicians are to stupid or only care about economy to listen to scientists and doctors, because scientists were calling for closing borders way back then... Even here at ATS, most of us knew what was coming...

IF this is a bio-weapon, I can see why they released it on China (IF it wasn't the CCP). Not just because of all the movement of people and tourists... But mainly because of the way they try to hide these issues and lie to the World. I now see it as the best option to successfully release the virus.