Corona - Covid19 - General Discussion

originally posted by: MamaAnarchist
Apologies, i just cant figure this site out and where to properly click/post but I been tellin my hubby for over a month to prepare n not panic. Well today he finally says hes so ready (and i was right, i know) jk lol to stock more so not to have to go out extra n hes crazy with it (maybe cuz hes a fan of certain four chin trolls?) But we go to walmart n hes embrarasing me in aisles with overdoing it ( mass rice n powder milk extra)!?And etc. But what and how do i tell him that the whole time he was coughing slightly and not covering?! I always cover my mouth but ppl dont want his germs even if its just a smokers cough???!!! Someone please link me that type of things, i say "cough n sneeze go x amount of inches/ feet etc but im livin with a potential super spreader!!! Should he just live in the shed? Sarcasm is majority of my rant but geeze!!!

Just be thankful you have someone on your side! I would give anything to have that right now.

originally posted by: Mamana12
I'm curious, what do each of you think the most likely outcome of this is, given where we are now? How do you see this unfolding now?

I think China and therefore WHO (almost all western CFR and r0 estimates are based on China's data) are lying about how bad it is.

From what I can gather, it's been a lot worse than they are saying in China.

I expect it to be a lot worse than they are saying here also.

I'm in the UK, and I'm expecting it to get very bad here very quickly. I've studied and used natural medicine for many years, and the back bone of a good natural medicine lifestyle is a good diet, good food prepared well. For years I've been trying to get people here in the UK to take their diets more seriously, but according to supermarket research, most shoppers today think that a balanced diet is eating some food that's good for you to balance all the bad stuff you eat.

All across Eastern Europe there still exists a culture of natural medicine. People drink their kefir and get plenty of magnesium. In the UK, there's a business model that's been making them sick, fat and lazy for year, and it's worked remarkably well. The UK has never been fatter, sicker or lazier, ever, and largely, it's their own fault. They're about to find out what happens to your body when you never eat a vegetable and live off chicken nuggets. Your body can't fight anything.

That, at the moment, is manifesting in denial. I've had quite a few very unpleasant days as people in the real world have felt it appropriate to blame me for the entire outbreak, just because I've been taking it seriously. People I know, know all about my healthy living and my attempts to get people here to get off their fat arses for 20 minutes a day and walk farther than the fridge is from the TV. Right now, they've been misdirecting their anger towards me, essentially for being right. Welcome to 21st Century England, where clever people are expected to hush and let the stupid people feel clever.

I'm very worried about what the rest of this week holds, never mind next week yet. The UK is in serious denial about the seriousness of this world event. They're all going to figure it out at the same time, and yeah, Black Friday x 1000.

originally posted by: violet
a reply to: saladfingers123456
What do you make of these calculations?

seekingalpha.com...

I'm plotting the growth on a graph (I'm using 3d software ...which is really just a big calculator)
As each set of numbers come in I add them in, and then I'm adjusting the path beyond current data to reflect the curve being shown.
From this it will be possible to tell if we are still increasing or decreasing. It isn't exact, but it will become easier and more accurate the longer it goes on. I'll try and use a few ways of getting a rough figure as more data comes in.

This is purely a mathematical endeavour based upon rate of infection reported. I'm not sure if I'll be able to account for unforeseen oddities. But I will try and adjust for odd peaks which aren't following the linear growth overall.

This isn't something I've done before, so I'm just applying my skill set to something new. I'm really an artist/animator, but also a pretty logical one... so i'm hoping to bring something to the table that might be useful. But this is also why I don't want anyone to vest too much stock in my findings unless they show particular accuracy. That is why I am sharing my work as it goes on, so you lot can access if it has any value.

Hope that explains it.

I don't put much stock in governments (because they, like me, are just imperfect people muddling along), so I have a tendency to elevate my concerns and worry... so i fight this by trying to get a solid handle on reality, and not just rely on what I'm told. This is an exercise in rationalisation for my own peace of mind, and hopefully others too.

originally posted by: violet
a reply to: saladfingers123456
What do you make of these calculations?

seekingalpha.com...

Also, I just realised that I misread your question completely (I just got up and am all bleary eyed)... I'll take a look at the link provided. Sorry. Still, I'll leave my other post up in case anyone wants to know my basic approach.

a reply to: TheIrvy2

Oo-er... You know, I hadn't considered that kind of reaction.
Essentially, you were right, so therefore an authority figure... and so why did you let it happen and/or solve it? Grrrrrrrrr pitchfork!

Sorry that has happened. Also, yes, you're right about the British diet. I'm not awful, but I'm not great regarding diet.

Food is all packaged and made for people who don't have time to cook properly (or that is the perception at least). A trip in to Co-op, and half the shop is full of junk. Base ingredients are a bit thin on the ground. Knowledge of cooking is also rarely taught properly at a young age anymore (which is when it'd become second nature). So the two feed in to one another. Even worse when you have both parents working, or don't even have 2 parents.

I think this is why a virus like this can happen though. I mean, it is a literal response to all the ills of society in that regard. It opens up the chinks in the armour and walks right in. The blame for that has many heads. Profit margins. Greed for more taxes (ie mothers and fathers both working) kids raised on TV (watching adverts that teach them to eat chicken swizzlers -im generalising) and from all this, a reduction in time to cook... so insta meals packed full of crap. The lack of parenting leads to institutional parenting and indoctrination, which leads to all sorts of radicalisation and then polarisation as a result. The pathway to where we are is very obvious to me.

Things like this virus come down the line to expose where things are broken. Not designed that way, but the inevitable result. So you are right, but there are limits to what you can do to stop it. However, in the aftermath, you can help teach people where it went wrong and how to avoid it.

Anyway, a long rant. Sorry you are being blamed though... it obviously isn't your fault. People are just scared, and want someone other than themselves to blame.

originally posted by: primalfractal
a reply to: tgidkp

Would it be possible for you to give us an estimate of CFR, with reinfection factored in? I realize it probably won't be pretty, but know your enemy and that.

doubtful, considering that the majority of deaths which are in fact due to COVID-19 are being reported as heart/liver/kidney failure.

even in the more "honest" reports from Italy and South Korea, we are seeing the fatalities severely underreported. probably because they are primarily concerned about preventing panic.... but it is crippling our ability to understand.

tennisdawg warned us of a CFR of 16.

that is unthinkably high. but i would not rule it out.

South Korea has a population of a little over 51 million people, and they've tested nearly 100,000 people for the virus.

The US has a population of 329,000,000 and has tested only 3,600 people.

The news last night said the US will soon have 75,000 test kits, which may give us a little better idea of just how fast it's spreading, and where- but it seems like far too few test kits for a country our size.

How is it other countries have access to so many test kits, while the US struggles to come up with so few?

originally posted by: nugget1
South Korea has a population of a little over 51 million people, and they've tested nearly 100,000 people for the virus.

The US has a population of 329,000,000 and has tested only 3,600 people.

The news last night said the US will soon have 75,000 test kits, which may give us a little better idea of just how fast it's spreading, and where- but it seems like far too few test kits for a country our size.

How is it other countries have access to so many test kits, while the US struggles to come up with so few?

If I was to hazard a guess, I'd say supply train... non local manufacturing. The US of all countries is at the heart of physical globalisation... so reliance on outside manufacturing. Once that breaks down, you get serious gaps in abilities.
There was a doctor in NYC I saw last night saying that he has been requesting test kits for weeks, but they haven't materialised, and he has to request them each time.

Ah.. found the video. This might explain some parts of it...


Anyway, I'm just speculating.

a reply to: tgidkp

I'm thinking that if we can find data related to per country deaths, then if what you are saying is true (and it is what I think is happening also), then the proof of the speculation/theory would show as a spike. I actually think it would be useful data.
We'd then have a more complete picture of actual broad affected as opposed to directly attributed by Corona.

This is really the golden egg in terms of getting a realistic handle on Coronas broader effects beyond direct illness in a healthy person.

originally posted by: violet
a reply to: saladfingers123456
What do you make of these calculations?

seekingalpha.com...

Right, having studied that page, I'd say it is as accurate as anything I'm working on. It seems like broad stroke data projection, so it will have a 10-20% inaccuracy for long term projects at current rates. But yes, I think this is good work.

I'm doing it on a per country basis. At some point in a couple of weeks, I'll try and show the curves taking in to account population. That way we'll see which country is maybe dealing with it best, or has it worst. It'll take a while to get to that point.
Great find by the way. I'll try and learn a few things from it.

a reply to: TheIrvy2

I feel for you. My brother eats junk food and won't cook anything harder to prepare than eggs. Every time I visit I see nothing but cookies, chips, and candy in his pantry. His 'healthy' cereal has tons of sugar in it. I keep trying to teach him to make a healthy greek salad, easy grilled chicken, etc.. but he complains that it's time consuming, sigh..He is always sick and constantly complains about the pollution here in the Dallas area. Every time I bring up the fact that his bad diet isn't helping he explodes in anger.

I also have a good friend who is an exercise fanatic but can't seem to lose weight. She thinks she eats healthy but she eats a lot of low-fat and fat-free products, then washes it down with diet coke. She has a multitude of health issues: Hashimotos disease, asthma, fibroids and gets weekly migraines. No amount of gentle nutrition guidance from me helps, as she won't listen. She is always sick. Her view of this coronavirus is "just a flu." Totally maddening. Can't get her to understand how dangerous catching it could be for her. It's so frustrating!

I read all food labels so I am able to make healthy choices and eat a great diet of fruits, veggies, whole grains, nuts, seeds, etc...Lucky me, I happen to love healthy food. I eat the occasional dessert and chips, of course, but it's not in my ordinary diet. I haven't been sick since the year 2000. No colds, runny noses, flus, nothing. I credit my good diet for this, mostly. But they can't see it.

Thanks for letting me vent. It's been a frustrating couple of months! It's really nice to have a general coronavirus thread!

originally posted by: saladfingers123456
People are just scared, and want someone other than themselves to blame.

Yes, unfortunately so, and I'll have to be the better person when they sheepishly admit so, but deep down I'll still be a little pissed lol.

Your post is very much in my wheelhouse. I've spent many years looking at how our modern industrialized diets have crippled our immune systems and starved us into obesity. We have so many young mothers in the UK who can't cook and won't cook, and usually live off a very small list of food items themselves. Lots of chicken twizzlers lol. You only have to look at the released figures of the rates of birth defects in babies born in the UK to see a very scary trend, and studies carried out on animals back in the 1950s concluded that a complete nutritional feed could eradicate most of the illnesses in animals that we are suffering from today. We can eat ourselves sick or we can eat ourselves healthy. The old adage is very true, you are what you eat.

My parent's generation were the first to experience modern government schooling, the welfare state, home economics and science. They were told that natural medicine and all of the knowledge their parents tried to pass down to them were old wive's tales and quackery, not scientifically sound like going to your doctor for a prescription. That broke a chain that had been passed down from generation to generation for thousands of years of long tested, well tried power of plants, herbs, seeds, barks, berries to heal, lift up and calm down. Epsom salt baths and soap gave way to showers and an array of harsh industrialized chemicals we call hygiene products. A good family dinner cooked with skill and love gave way to 5 different meals all prepared elsewhere by a machine.

Of all the countries hit so far, I fear the UK are the least prepared to deal with the realities of what lies ahead of us in the next few months.

I have to wonder what the connection is with isolated cases. Is it in the food chain? The pet food chain? What if this is from contaminated pet food and treats. Pets eat the food, then lick humans. Could explain isolated cases. Did the nursing home have a companion pet?

I’m actually replying to your post, as well as the post above yours.

I too am health conscious. I eat a good diet, but don’t deprive myself of a whole lot either. I exercise, intensely, regularly (5-6 times a week).

Know what? November thru February I get sick. Actually, I get sick every few weeks. Mostly minor stuff. A few good ones that might make me want to lay around for a day.

Know what I do when I’m sick? I try a lot of the remedies that have been posted in this and several other threads on this board; honey, vitamin c, zinc, elderberry, etc.

Know what they do? Not much. They don’t keep me from getting sick. There’s a chance they shorten duration or severity, but it’s also possible that fitness combined with a virus of low severity is responsible for this as well.

Know why?

Because I have young kids in elementary school. They’re exposed to a lot, so I am exposed a lot. At some point all of our systems will build these “memories” and we won’t get sick as often. But as long as they are catching things for the first time and bringing them home, and my immune system is either seeing them for the first time, or it’s memory is a bit hazy...I’m getting sick too.

I’m certainly in the top 25% for my age, fitness wise. Likely higher.

So while being “healthy” likely benefits your mortality and long term wellness, I can tell you from first hand experience that it does not prevent illness. If you are habitually germ free, it is likely a result of low exposure.

It’s troubling to see people put down western medicine. While it’s not the answer every time, it has saved our butts countless times.

Next time you have cancer or a bacterial pneumonia, trying eating lots of greens and lean protein, rub some honey on it and supplement lots of vitamin c...and call me in the morning.


a reply to: TheIrvy2

a reply to: KindraLaBelle

Hey mate, I was referring more to "how effective" wearing a mask is and whether ot not they helped at all?

I once got "viral meningitis" when I was about 20yo. Knocked a very fit me flat overnight. I thought I'd woken up with a hangover headache from the night before, But No! as the day, a saturday progressed this headache becane migraine level and I thought I'd best see a dr ... so I drove to the clinic as it was getting dark and the car headlights were making my head HURT! butI got to the drs and went in and just lay on the waiting room floor, I was SO sick and it felt like someone was bashing my head with it. No bueno - - - and spooky!

there's a part with 'missing time' where I somehow got from my drs to a nearby Big city hospital nearby, I can't remember how, probably aliens, but I digress, I recall being. put into an 'isolated' room with all the lights off, coz the lights killed my head, and the doc came in and told me they were "pretty sure I had viral meningitis , a nasty little situation where some one of 40 odd viruses that can cause it one had snuck it's way past my immune system into Text

but they wanted to take a lumbar puncture "to be sure" . . I asked "what's the treatment/cure?"
and he replies "there isn't one"! (and this was in the 80's)

So I said "and what's the treatment?"
and he said "you just have to ride it out, you can do it either here at the hospital or go home and rest in a quiet dark room" - thanks for the tip I thought, duh!

It wasn't a hard decision to make, "don't worry about the lumbar puncture, I'm good with your professional opinions and I'll go home thanks and be looked after by my gf kinda. I asked the dr "how did I get this?

and this was a line I've only ever had said to me once in my Life that summed up how fragile we human's can be. "You took the wrong breath at the wrong time" b and a virus got into my]the lining if my brain making it inflamed which is why it hurt so much. I was in a dark room sleeping most of the time for about 7days before it began to ease off which took about 2 weeks all up!
Crazy hey, the 'wrong breath at the wrong time'

and that's pretty much that. There was no ''epidemic', I was the only person among my friends that night to get sick . . .

So you know how SMALL viruses are?

Let's say we have a A BIGGER virus 100x bigger in size than Cov-19 and If we compared the mesh in the mask to be relative in size to a Brillo pad, the virus would still be the "relative size" of grain of salt"
Which easily gets through a mesh the size of brillo only full on surgical kit would keep you mostly protested!

www.youtube.com..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow">watch this month old video from China

and let me know how you feel about the effectiveness of masks after watching the video

originally posted by: DOcean
I’m actually replying to your post, as well as the post above yours.

I too am health conscious. I eat a good diet, but don’t deprive myself of a whole lot either. I exercise, intensely, regularly (5-6 times a week).

Know what? November thru February I get sick. Actually, I get sick every few weeks. Mostly minor stuff. A few good ones that might make me want to lay around for a day.

Know what I do when I’m sick? I try a lot of the remedies that have been posted in this and several other threads on this board; honey, vitamin c, zinc, elderberry, etc.

Know what they do? Not much. They don’t keep me from getting sick. There’s a chance they shorten duration or severity, but it’s also possible that fitness combined with a virus of low severity is responsible for this as well.

Know why?

Because I have young kids in elementary school. They’re exposed to a lot, so I am exposed a lot. At some point all of our systems will build these “memories” and we won’t get sick as often. But as long as they are catching things for the first time and bringing them home, and my immune system is either seeing them for the first time, or it’s memory is a bit hazy...I’m getting sick too.

I’m certainly in the top 25% for my age, fitness wise. Likely higher.

So while being “healthy” likely benefits your mortality and long term wellness, I can tell you from first hand experience that it does not prevent illness. If you are habitually germ free, it is likely a result of low exposure.

It’s troubling to see people put down western medicine. While it’s not the answer every time, it has saved our butts countless times.

Next time you have cancer or a bacterial pneumonia, trying eating lots of greens and lean protein, rub some honey on it and supplement lots of vitamin c...and call me in the morning.


a reply to: TheIrvy2

Do you have a good probiotic in your daily diet? Anything other than kefir probably isn't good enough, kefir is the best.

70% of your immune system is reliant on a bunch of bacteria that probably isn't in your gut. Artificial sweeteners have been shown to kill off your gut flora and fauna, as do antibiotics and a lot of other factors that are doubtless in all our lives, like stress, etc.

Without a good probiotic, your body can't respond to a contagion with full gusto, and most people in our industrialized world have never experienced their body's full potential response to an ailment.

a reply to: JohnnyJetson

but you got the meningitis when you weren't wearing a mask, right?
Tough luck to be the one taking the wrong breath in a full room!

But consider this, everyone in an operating room is wearing a mask. Even my dentist wears one. Not for their health, but for the patients health. Masks minimize the risk to spread viruses and bacteria.
I'm pretty sure that more then half of the people will use their mask wrong, or wear a cheap one that really doesn't do anything.... but a good mask being used the RIGHT way can prevent infection or at least lower the risk ... especially when you have to go near someone who is more vulnerable to becoming seriously ill.

your link doesn't work btw

Ever watch a movie, and you know the twists and turns long before they appear?
If you sit next to someone that doesn't have the same understanding of narrative and cues, or symbolic language, you have a choice to either tell them what is around the corner and what the likely ending will be, or you sit back and let them enjoy the show.
To be the one who can see tired narratives repeat themselves, and how they manipulate the viewer to be suprised by the outcome, it can all seem a bit trite. Maybe the effects are well done, some fun action, that's a plus... but it can seem quite dull overall.

But to spoil it for the general viewing audience is a bit mean right?

So anyway, I'm going to go to the toilet and have a cigarette outside for a while. The concierge would seem to be annoyed and even made veiled threats about me returning to his particular cinema, so I'll just keep busy elsewhere. Maybe watch reruns of the Simpsons instead or something.


This is just my nice way of saying that on this particular topic, for a while, I'm stepping outside. I know I promised some stats, but I think that... well, it doesn't matter what I think.

Just stay safe and well. Don't get too lost in all of this, nor neglect other things in your life because of it. Being prepared is always, always a good thing.
I'll probably still be about on other topics ...that are the real reason I came back to ATS. But for now, I'm putting this particular potato down. Sorry if that lets anyone down re: The stat work I was doing... also don't think too much about my above message. All I'm really saying, is that life is a story, and we each have our own. The backdrop isn't the story.

Some great people here. Cheers all.

so I just got a call from my boss ....
some of my colleagues, and their family members, are being tested for the virus as we speak. They don't expect the results till late tomorrow or even the day after.
My first reaction is 'im not going to work'... but I guess first of all, if it turns out that one of them has the virus the damage is done already and second, unless the rest of us get sick they expect us to show up or... I don't know, loose my job ?!

this is really confronting.... I hope their tests are negative