Corona Virus Updates Part 3

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

I don't think anyone should panic even if this turns out to be true. Reasonable and logical people should be able to sit down and think it over and understand that with 1,000 cases out in the wild, no one is dropping in the streets, no hospitals have been overwhelmed.

Strictly speaking, these cases should be mostly clustered and if they were going to cause real trouble on a mass scale, there would be real spikes in those locations by now, not just background noise no one can tell apart from the flu.

originally posted by: Power_Semi


I'd want something that spread much faster and killed many more people.

As stated before, bio-weapon might be engineered to halt a society and not kill it. Look what is happening in China.

Also to be a good weapon, it has to spread without being noticed (show no symptoms); for that, the incubation period must be long and the virus must be able to infect during this time.

We do not know how fast this thing truly is, just the estimated R0. Outside of China, we only have the cruise ship in Japan as a, do not like to say it, but.... as a "petri dish"... And even that might be under secret.

And as ketsuko and others say, even if it was an escape from a lab, it doesn't mean it was a weapon.

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: Oppenheimer67

if it's true then usa is going to be a mirror of china ( if not worse) as the cover up and delay telling people was part of the problem allowing it to get beyond control

I just feel that's what they are doing everywhere. It's out, there's nothing they can do to stop it, so they are delaying lockdown as long as possible to keep the markets happy. Saying it's to avoid panic, where in fact it will cause massive panic because people will only realise when it's too late and no one is prepared.

Masks are mocked and reported as useless, even though in the same breath reporters will say how it's the frontline professionals that need them... Why if they are so useless? UK politicians mocked on the mainstream news for self isolating. This attitude/strategy will increase spread and transmission (increased R0 through lack of public precautions), precisely the opposite of what you want. Services will be overwhelmed more quickly, increasing the mortality rate, and that's just the beginning. But at least the markets will be happier for longer.

It will be a worse scenario than in China because theirs started in one place. We will have imported it to every major city.

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: TrulyColorBlind

originally posted by: GoldGlobal
Elton John diagnosed with walking pneumonia, a type of lung infection often caused by bacteria or viruses.

Sure hope he gets tested for corona, just to be safe!

If it turns out, and I'm definitely saying "if," he did contract this corona virus, having a celebrity affected by it in any way would cause a lot of people to start paying more attention.

I do wonder if a disproportionate amount of wealthy would get it first due to their international travel.

That's kind of along the lines of what I was thinking. What if the poeple stuck on the cruise ship harbored in Japan were wealthier than normal (in my mind, who else could afford a cruise?), so if they don't return home to start their jobs again when they were scheduled to - would they run out of funds pretty quickly, or could they tap into their savings? Would their bosses fire them for not showing back up to work on time?

a reply to: DBCowboy

My son works in Trauma in Portland as well, though not at OHSU. We all live here - he's getting married Friday and they have a new baby. He seems pretty concerned but has no real data. I'd be grateful for any info you'd be willing to share.

thanks...

You can almost feel her pain.

Chinese citizen calls for a revolution, she's willing to sacrifice her life for the next generation.
English Subtitles.

twitter.com...

one day I don't check media and forums and just now learn from my sister about the Westerdam cruiseship... and she is freaking out!
my local media isnt even covering it.

Does anyone have a source that combines all media?
How many ppl are still unaccounted for? How many got on a plane and to where?

edit:
nvm, just learned that none of them who made it onto a flight will be put in quarantine so wtf does it matter anymore.... just let them loose, what's the worst than can happen? Unless it's already everywhere and they just dont bother with it anymore...

originally posted by: Thoughtful1
China Vaccine Law Passed

A law was passed effective December 1st, 2019 making it mandatory that all Chinese citizens must be vaccinated for diseases as mandated by the government.
Reviewing the law one section really stood out.

"The law establishes a compensation system for abnormal reactions to vaccination. A recipient who dies, or suffers significant disability or organ or tissue damage is to be paid from the vaccination funds of the provincial governments if the reaction falls within the scope of abnormal reactions associated with a vaccine and cannot be prevented."

There is something there. A deadly virus, a vaccination and now deadly reactions. This law was passed in August of 2019 and became effective December 1, 2019. The coronavirus must have already been circulating back as far as August.
When did the trade war start. July 6, 2018. Could it have been already circulating as far back as then?:

China:Vaccine Law Passed/Global Legal Monitor

I think that if this were the case, Wuhan wouldn't be the epicenter, it would have exploded everywhere.

Meh considering the newest hypothesis on how this epidemic started, I can’t trust any information coming out from the media. All I can do is observe it. The CCP putting millions under quarantine, makes sense to me now. The information on long incubation makes sense of a bio weapon, it does not necessarily need to be deadly to cripple economies. We can’t trust anything we are being told by the media I am afraid..

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

To clarify i didn’t mean to imply Masks are all useless , I was referring to the pollution type masks mostly worn out in public, Masks are not useless in the context of a medical environment used correctly( unfortunately jo public for the most part has no idea how to put on and take off correctly that’s even if fitted correctly most I’ve seen wearing them don’t fit properly at all!) and when the quarantine room is also under negative pressure
In a big crowded place with badly fitting masks moving around warm and moist pollution / dust mask I’d go with fairly useless

I’d agree if / when there is a big lockdown out side China, there will be a degree of panic think under that situation anyone saying there won’t be is being naieve

Tbh markets will be of little concern if that happens, most other countries would be unable to liquidate assesets on the scale China did for more than a week or so max (guessing there though I’m not a market person )
And the U.K. politicians being mocked well they were in a conferance of some sort I believe with 100 or so other people and what they are doing is a leading by example because this is the U.K. government trying to make people aware and this is what they should do if they think they have been exposed
Although so far there’s little evidence to suggest it effects people of non Asian decent or heratidge in the same way
( that’s not to say caution isn’t warranted u TIL we know more about it and that’s by all means not certain at this time, just how it’s starting to look imo)

And if it is already here ( in the 3 months since November it’s had plenty of time tbh) then I think we would have seen some spikes by now ( supposedly started November (believed earlier) ) so should of had at least 3 months to be showing up here if the story is true , and the video of the health people in Germany ( kinda put more belief in what they say than some random YouTube guy tbh, but I’ve not had to second guess them before )saying that it’s not looking much worse than bad flu / cold for a lot of people with high fatality rate in elderly etc, lines up much better with what we’re seeing happen to the cases outside China ( but again I’m just sticking together info I’ve read and seen )

I’d agree if it gets out of control it could quickly spiral out of control and overwhealm health services everywhere.

originally posted by: vampira309
a reply to: DBCowboy

My son works in Trauma in Portland as well, though not at OHSU. We all live here - he's getting married Friday and they have a new baby. He seems pretty concerned but has no real data. I'd be grateful for any info you'd be willing to share.

thanks...

He would be. Everyone in health care should be concerned. The big concern is that this thing explodes like it did in China and overwhelms them.

Reality says that this isn't actually a super lethal disease, but one that has the potential to infect a lot of people with a high enough percentage needing medical support that if it really goes epidemic in high numbers, it could overwhelm the hospitals, and I think that's what they're most worried about.

Generally, I think most average folks will make it through on their own just fine if/when they catch it.

The equation to watch is the number who need care and how many of those there are at any one time. Too many, and you end up with a disaster.

We know it can spread like wildfire because we're seeing it now on the Diamond Princess; however, in most other areas of the world, it's spread has been much more sedate.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: Oppenheimer67

I don't think anyone should panic even if this turns out to be true. Reasonable and logical people should be able to sit down and think it over and understand that with 1,000 cases out in the wild, no one is dropping in the streets, no hospitals have been overwhelmed.

Strictly speaking, these cases should be mostly clustered and if they were going to cause real trouble on a mass scale, there would be real spikes in those locations by now, not just background noise no one can tell apart from the flu.

It's not 1000 cases in the wild, it's 1000 cases that they know about and have isolated. In the wild there would be at least 5 times that amount who are not severe enough to have raised any eyebrows or slipped by, and all the ones who have only just been infected and won't show symptoms for up to 2 weeks (if ever). So 1000 confirmed cases could quite easily mean 64k in the wild (based on double rate of 3.5 days).

These would not remain clusters for long. There's no way to track and quarantine this. Schools, universities, transport etc ensure they are not clusters for long.

This is all one big IF this is true.

Certainly don't panic. Sorry if I come across that way, I'm just angry at this potentially devastating and immoral strategy. I'll calm down in a minute.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

This would be why they decided to start testing all people with cold and flu symptoms, right?

Maybe I'm less upset because I feel like we are all going to end up having to get it sooner or later given what it is.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

I was speaking with my mother this morning who is retired. At least 5 of her friends are in the hospital with bad cases of the flu. This is more than she can remember since she retired 12 years ago. 1 of them is in critical condition. Most them do have 1 underlying health condition but nothing too serious that she knows. I wonder how many of them do have the virus. My mom also said she wasn’t allowed to visit any of them in the hospital which is really not normal in her retirement community. I have visited family friends in hospital freely since back in the USA.

My wife wanted to get a flu shot and none of the places around us had any left for anyone under 65. We checked about 6 of them yesterday, then called about 5 more and gave up. I wasn’t in USA last year can’t really compare it with anything but seemed strange that so many places were out of shots. It’s generally free in this state through a variety of means but still that’s a lot of shots.

Wife is majorly freaked out with what she is reading on WeChat these days. And she’s equally angry at Xi Jinping and wants to see him deposed at a minimum.

I don’t think this is over by a long shot. They are letting the numbers decline to try and get people back to work. Note my last link - 1 factory went back, 2 people had the virus and now 300 quarantined at wor.

a reply to: SpartanStoic

I wouldn't know about the shot. I got mine back in the fall. I normally don't bother, but I decided to this year because I was having surgery and decided having a cough with a bad shoulder would just be no fun. Took steps to avoid it if at all possible.



Still not seeing any real signs of any panic out where I am at. We quietly stocked up a bit more today with more dried beef and shamelessly abused a canned goods sale.

Barron’s the respected financial and market company questions the CCPs numbers.

China’s Coronavirus Figures Don’t Add Up. ‘This Never Happens With Real Data.’

Barron’s

And some evidence of WHO’s bias and corruption...

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) - which receives the second-largest financial contribution from China after the United States - has been defending Beijing and praising their response while insisting that travel restrictions are unnecessary and racist (would spread "fear and stigma").

WHO Contributor List

Trump Administration does not believe the numbers either. I wonder what information they do possess that they are keeping from us. And as others indicated there must be more than 15-17 cases in the USA based on the travel between China and the USA.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

So 1000 confirmed cases could quite easily mean 64k in the wild (based on double rate of 3.5 days).

These would not remain clusters for long. There's no way to track and quarantine this. Schools, universities, transport etc ensure they are not clusters for long.

I think that very logic is the point being made, if it’s that bad, where are they all?, if that many do have it (or more because 3 months =90 days / 3.5=25.8( call it 26 to round it off) amount of doubles every 3.5 days so 1000x2(^26) which is 32 billion!
Think we’d notice that! Don’t you???

a reply to: Adphil28


Hi Adphil, I didn't mean to sound like I was attacking you on your opinion of face masks. I'm very angry at the MSM for making them out to be useless for public. I think this is hugely irresponsible. Based on your recent post, I agree with your view on face masks.

We do disagree on some things, such as when you suggested there being a second virus as a cover-up, or that we'd see spikes across the world because of 1 person infected in China even as early as Nov. If they are covered up this would explain a lot, but with long incubation, very mild symptoms in most, and even then, only cold-like in a flu season, 1-2 month to recovery or death...

But that's beside the point, I value your opinion and can see you have your head screwed on.

a reply to: ketsuko

Flu shot takes 2-3 weeks to get to work in the system and become effective, anyone who usually gets them knows it’s October November (around that time) to go get them.
Hope the shoulders better

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: Oppenheimer67

So 1000 confirmed cases could quite easily mean 64k in the wild (based on double rate of 3.5 days).

These would not remain clusters for long. There's no way to track and quarantine this. Schools, universities, transport etc ensure they are not clusters for long.

I think that very logic is the point being made, if it’s that bad, where are they all?, if that many do have it (or more because 3 months =90 days / 3.5=25.8( call it 26 to round it off) amount of doubles every 3.5 days so 1000x2(^26) which is 32 billion!
Think we’d notice that! Don’t you???

Sorry your maths is wrong, you are assuming 1000 cases were imported 3 months ago, when there may have been only 1 in China. You are also assuming doubling rate is constant. Doubling rate will be higher to begin with in densely populated areas with services like tube stations, lower elsewhere, and would decrease as time goes by due to better precautions and the sick coming into contact with less uninfected.

You also have to bear in mind that CFR may only be 1%. It's not like all these people will be keeling over in the streets. Many will not show symptoms at all, some never will.