Corona Virus Updates Part 3

originally posted by: texasgirl
a reply to: EndtheMadnessNow

That Tedros guy from WHO sounds like an idiot. He's still not ready to call this a pandemic, even though the "window of opportunity to contain it is narrowing."

Sorry, but this isn't containable. Not anymore.

Yea.. loved his "could get very serious" comment. Because it's clearly not serious already.

a reply to: BruceZuckerberg

A 38 year old member of a RUNNING CLUB is in critical condition.... this ain't the flu.

What has his membership of a running club got to do with his susceptibility to contracting a virus?

originally posted by: texasgirl
a reply to: EndtheMadnessNow

That Tedros guy from WHO sounds like an idiot. He's still not ready to call this a pandemic, even though the "window of opportunity to contain it is narrowing."

Sorry, but this isn't containable. Not anymore.

Oh, I agree. I think he's been in cahoots with the CCP since day 1.

originally posted by: Phelan15
a reply to: InterplanetaryHobo

The US used Kalitta Air 747-400s. These are configured as cargo aircraft, so they rolled on pallets with seats attached to them. In addition to the seats, there was an isolation chamber installed as well. Any passenger that was infected, or started to show symptoms was loaded into that chamber for the flight. It's called the Containerized Bio-containment System, or CBCS. It's also been referred to as the Aeromedical Biocontainment System, or ABCS.

That is the unit used to transport 4 patients from Travis AFB to a hospital in Spokane, Washington. Quite some pages back (if I remember the source correctly) a photo was shown of the 'special isolation area' on the chartered plane bringing evacuees back to the US from the Diamond Princess. The 'isolation' area was created by hanging a plastic curtain to separate the 14 people who tested positive from the rest of the passengers.
We have to trust that people who arrived early on self-quarantined. Even at that, 14 days has proven to be too short of a time period.
SARS didn't seem to sweep the world nearly as rapidly or thoroughly as this virus is doing. I don't remember the massive quarantines happening, either.
ETA: Your picture is of the bio containment unit used to transport a patient to and from the airport.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

What’s all that other that a massive copy and paste?

a reply to: Adphil28

Federal contract expenditures related to the coronavirus. It shows that Uncle Sam is spending a fair amount of money in a very short period of time; i.e. the government is taking this seriously, we would be well advised to do the same.

Prepare in whatever way you feel best, or not and trust to what you are being told by the media; the choice is yours.

Doing some thinking,

If this can be spread by touch....

What about flies ? Hey could transport it on their feet, no?

originally posted by: Fowlerstoad
a reply to: Advantage

"I was thinking the other day that the Feds have a lot more information than we know about concerning the virus and its movements. "


I really … really … really … REALLY hope you are right. We need something to tip our way. Otherwise, things are kind of looking like they are headed the wrong way ….

Yeah.. me too. All I can tell you is that Im associated with state level emergency management and its not activated yet, but we are being debriefed and prepared. The info from the CDC and WHO are in conflict with each other at times. The WHO is associated with the UN.. and the WHO are the ones China finally let in.. Im speculating they did so under pressure. The whole thing is fUBAR due to Chinas actions and lack of action. Even so, they could not contain it with the draconian measures they have taken. Other countries wont violate human rights stuff to contain it... at first. Even now, there are directives and have been way before I was involved in it ..all the way from the top that people wont like if they knew about them. Theyre not secret.. you can find them online as they are public. You CAN be involuntarily quarantines.. things CAN be confiscated.. things CAN be suspended. These wont be employed until its a SHTF scenario. There are federal levels of these protocols and state levels of these protocols. State level officials arent known for cooperating fully with federal level. I said this a thread ago and you see it right now.. the CDC told the federal level not to bring the infected in the country.. they did anyway. No one really cooperates fully with eachother.
So.. sit back and watch. Theres nothing you can do anyway... the situation changes constantly.

For those in the UK:

Found this in another thread online:

t's a (non peer reviewed) paper from several professors who have done some modelling on the potential numbers in England and Wales if the spread was not contained effectively.

Also worth noting the date is the 12th feb

Abstract
Background
An outbreak of a novel coronavirus, named CoVID-19, was first reported in China on 31
December 2019. As of 9 February 2020, cases have been reported in 25 countries, including
probable cases of human-to-human transmission in England.
Methods
We adapted an existing national-scale metapopulation model to capture the spread of CoVID-19
in England and Wales. We used 2011 census data to capture population sizes and population
movement, together with parameter estimates from the current outbreak in China.
Results
We predict that a CoVID-19 outbreak will peak 126 to 147 days (~4 months) after the start of
person-to-person transmission in England and Wales in the absence of controls, assuming
biological parameters remain unchanged. Therefore, if person-to-person transmission persists
from February, we predict the epidemic peak would occur in June. The starting location has
minimal impact on peak timing, and model stochasticity varies peak timing by 10 days.
Incorporating realistic parameter uncertainty leads to estimates of peak time ranging from 78
days to 241 days after person-to-person transmission has been established. Seasonal changes
in transmission rate substantially impact the timing and size of the epidemic peak, as well as the
total attack rate.
Discussion
We provide initial estimates of the potential course of CoVID-19 in England and Wales in the
absence of control measures. These results can be refined with improved estimates of
epidemiological parameters, and permit investigation of control measures and cost
effectiveness analyses. Seasonal changes in transmission rate could shift the timing of the peak
into winter months, which will have important implications for health-care capacity planning.[/ex

.
Results
We predict that, in the absence of any interventions, a disease with “best-guess” CoVID-19-like
parameters will peak a median of 133 days (range 126 - 147 days) following the start of personto-person transmission in England and Wales. Intrinsic model stochasticity is responsible for
variation between model runs. Using exactly the same parameters and seeding the infection in
the same initial wards resulted in a difference in peak timing of +/- 10 days (figure 2). The attack
rate for best-guess parameters had a median of 45799874 (81.67% range 81.64-81.69), with a
peak incidence median 1,116,6

Also worth noting

Acknowledgements
EBP was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit
(NIHR HPRU) in Evaluation of Interventions at University of Bristol in partnership with Public
Health England (PHE). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily
It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license .
author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
medRxiv preprint doi: doi.org... The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the
10
those of the NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health or Public Health England. LD gratefully
acknowledges the financial support of The Alan Turing Institute under the EPSRC grant

www.medrxiv.org...

edit on 21-2-2020 by cirrus12 because: tried to make more readable as copied from pdf and formatting terrible

edit on 21-2-2020 by cirrus12 because: more info

a reply to: Argyll

Well, I guess membership in a running club COULD be for people clapping at the finish line of a race, but I happen to favor the idea that actual 'runners' may be in such a club, which to me means - probably good lung function.

Critical condition from a virus known to cause pneumonia in someone with good lung function is worrisome, from my viewpoint as an MD at least, with lots of assumptions taken into account, admittedly. *shrug*

So to your point, runners should be no more or less susceptible to contract this virus, but they should have a lower chance of going 'critical' I would hope? ? ?

a reply to: nugget1

The CBCS can carry four patients, family, and caregivers in three rooms. It's got one for patients, one for medical staff to gear up in, and one that's basically a waiting room. The most severe cases would have been transported in that on the aircraft, and the others would have been screened off. The virus wouldn't spread much beyond about three or four feet on the aircraft, so just partitioning off a section would have probably been enough to keep it from spreading to other people on the plane.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

That's an interesting site to collect all that data. Don't suppose you been keeping a running tally on coronavirus fed expenditures?

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Without knowing what it’s for, it could be for building facilities to produce or research vaccine , but tbh governments don’t publish anything sensitive so it’s hard to draw a conclusion from that ( just my opinion though)
Personally I wouldn’t trust the media either, I did have a look at some data yesterday my personal conclusion is based on that And other info ( have a look at posts from last night ( about 24 hours ago) about the mutation of the sarscov2 and its divergence Think that would be easier to base an opinion on rather than spending of a government ( they don’t have billions of dollars in the budget to spend nothing )
Nice to see them doing something though even if they ain’t saying what it’s for

a reply to: 38181

That was for the most severe patients. The others were partitioned off behind a plastic screen. The ABCS/CBCS is DoD and FAA certified for transporting patients. The original ABCS was designed and built for Phoenix Air to fit in a Gulfstream III aircraft, and could carry one patient. It was certified by the FAA, and evolved into the CBCS. The DoD was also developing another version that could carry 12 ambulatory patients, or 8 stretchers.

a reply to: EndtheMadnessNow

I'm heading in to work right now, so I don't have the time presently. When I'm off I'll total up what's been awarded so far and list that, unless someone else does so before then. I've included the link and each contract listed has it's own link showing what the contract is for and the dollars associated with same.

a reply to: Fowlerstoad

You could also be talking about someone who has an amped up immune system from being super healthy too. There may be an immune over-reaction involved. Cytokine storm and stuff.

That being said, I've known runners who smoke. You would think that doesn't happen much these days, but ...

I have a weird observation..

Ive seen a LOT of stuff.. weird stuff. I have NEVER seen someone just fall over on the ground motionless like the vid from China. Ive seen them seize when they fell due to intercranial pressure with a virus.. but not just BLAM drop dead. Ive seen them fall and bleed from the nose and mouth etc.. but never just mid walk stop and fall over motionless like they were shot.

What the hell is that all about? I know this virus can cause neurological symptoms and all, but that drop down motionless on your face stuff kinda creeps me out. I asked about it last week.. and was told to stop watching unverified video. LOL! No answer. I go.. well Im asking from a first responder point of view.. what would cause that sort of symptom. I was again told to stop watching unverified video.

Speaking of video. I saw a "verified video" of a patient in Wuhan who was on total life support. He was conscious and fighting the respirator. I wasnt seizure motions. He appeared to be conscious and not sedated. Looked like air hunger to me. Our later protocol is different levels of sedation when at that point . I am unsure if his sedation level was lifted specifically for the video for observation, but it made me wonder if China is so low on supplies the arent giving any sedation and letting the patients just experience that sort of end. 4 days in ICU till death doesnt seem like a lot.. unless youre experiencing it. It also seemed that he was restrained.. which isnt unusual when patients are at that point.. but he was conscious enough to fight it.

I dont know.. it just really left me uneasy. Im still feeling uneasy about it.

a reply to: Advantage

So was OMA Eppley airfield in NE just for cruise ship??

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Awesome additions to this thread and investigation !

originally posted by: Phelan15
a reply to: InterplanetaryHobo

The US used Kalitta Air 747-400s. These are configured as cargo aircraft, so they rolled on pallets with seats attached to them. In addition to the seats, there was an isolation chamber installed as well. Any passenger that was infected, or started to show symptoms was loaded into that chamber for the flight. It's called the Containerized Bio-containment System, or CBCS. It's also been referred to as the Aeromedical Biocontainment System, or ABCS.

Wow, never knew this type of isolation equipment & special cargo plane even existed. Kalitta has some interesting history.

nugget1: thanks for the added info!