70% of North Korea’s Submarines have Left their Bases, Can’t be Located

This is a great piece outlining the most important points, and inevitably bringing up China.

Why North Korea suddenly scares the heck out of me

So on the one hand, you have a scenario where DPRK generals are so scared of Kim that they’ll act rashly to avoid execution. On the other hand, you have another scenario where if Kim backs down, the generals will execute him.

Kim is showing weakness in the face of the unexpected resolve of SK. He was the one asking for talks before their deadline arrived, but his actions since then during the talks are contradictory to that. This seems to suggest that there's already a power problem in NK impacting upon the decisions made.

The last thing Xi needs right now is for a fellow communist regime — yes, even one as crazy as North Korea — cracking up. Authoritarian regimes tend to get very tetchy when neighboring authoritarian regimes start to buckle. North Korea is particularly vexing for China. Despite the nominal alliance, Beijing’s influence over Pyongyang has waned in recent years.

In an ideal world, we would come to some agreement with China about how to handle the NK problem as allies. It's in everyones best interests that NK be taken out, but also that it doesn't spill out of NK itself.

Ultimately, the NK problem could lend a helping hand to unifying political opinions between several former enemies in the region. The only one left out in the cold could be Russia - which suits the US just fine.

China has already moved PLA forces to the North Korea border. If the DPRK should implode, my concern is just how the Chinese would react to it. It is to Beijing’s credit that it has modulated its behavior very carefully over the past year or so. But if its economy is about to hit a wall, a Korean crisis would be easy to manipulate into a nationalist rally-round-the-flag opportunity.

This is perhaps the most worrying thing about this whole issue right now, because the rest of the world doesn't really know what China is thinking.

The best case scenario is that China is just playing it safe and moving things into position to protect its own border during an unpredictable time. The worst case scenario is that China is massing weaponry and troops on the border to head into NK in an effort to lend a hand against any potential attack from SK and the US.

The second option is not likely. China isn't predicting that the US or SK is going to be invading NK. Those tanks would be pointless for anything other than defense of the NK border with China.

originally posted by: stormbringer1701

originally posted by: johnwick

originally posted by: stormbringer1701

originally posted by: johnwick



That would only be possible if both the US and SK did absolutely nothing about it while shells rained from the sky.
Of course, that's laughable.

The reality is that the moment NK fires anything at them the US and SK will pound every NK position capable of hitting any SK target.

NK might have plenty aimed at SK, but most of that would miss, and most of those positions would be destroyed within minutes of firing anything.

My peacetime mission was to locate all hardened NK firing positions well enough to lob a copperhead down the front while the blast doors are open when they registered thier guns or practice fired. we know where they live. but since then tech has gotten even better. plus the ROKA has equipment and training parity with the US now. That is a part of the reason the plan changed from task force smith II (retreat and hold a beach head for reinforcements from Hi, japan alaska and the east coast mountain boys) to the 72 hour curb-stomp everything that needs curb-stomping in NK on the way to the northern border.

The ROKA has all of our latest stuff, not just the hand me downs or export versions. They are very tough and extremely disciplined even without it. They are trained to our standards and beyond. Thier readiness is why a lot of the US forces were able to be relocated to southern locations about a decade ago.

As i said there are things the north must do if they really are going to launch a war. things they cannot hide or disguise. these become evident 7 to nine days before the commencement of hostile fire in a full war secenario. i am not talking about a field commander lobbing a few rounds at a guard tower, or commandos planting a mine, axe murdering a detail in the dmz or even a minisub raid on seoul but a full blown KW II. that has an unmistakeable tell. and when we see that tell we are not waiting for them to fire the first round. not any more. within one hour of the decision all units will have full UBL and be in their starting positions. shortly after that the combined forces will roll over the DMZ with no take backs apologies or hand wringing and they will not stop curbstomping that until they are all but mooning the Chinese on the northern border.

Copper head, storm, are you a 13 series?

Bunny or echo/ delta? Or one of those crazy assed foxes?

13R actually. Counter battery Counter RAM firefinder Radar systems.

I believe that the MOS may have reclassed as deltas or something else now. back then it was romeo.

I was 13-E, I believe they reclassified as delta.

You ever been around the triple seven?

After my time, but it is an amazing gun!

originally posted by: gortex
I think you're reading too much into this , NK has a history of creating tension and stamping its feet when it's not being paid attention , Kim Jong Un is following the traditions of his father and flexing his military muscles to show his people he is a strong leader.

This is a very simplistic way to view things though, and things are definitely not this simple.
There are several things making this entirely different to previous instances of aggression. The NK regime routinely makes threats and does things to get attention or to improve domestic politics, but that's never led to what we're seeing right now.

SK has stood up to NK in a way it didn't expect.
NK has been backed into a corner, with the only option to back down.
Kim can't back down and save face with his generals, who are all living in a constant state of fear already.
China has never before moved such military hardware to the border with NK over any other skirmish.
NK has never moved so much military power in the country toward SK since the end of the Korean war.

As I said, this is entirely different to previous events. Kim is an untested leader, under threat from his own generals, likely having lost the backing of China, and seeing his former victim (SK) finally fighting back and calling his bluff.

Because he's so young and so inexperienced, and because his own leadership and military is so volatile, everything about this is far more dangerous than any previous event between the two sides since the end of the war.

originally posted by: gortex
Nobody wants a war so talks will continue and eventually we will end up back at square one , if I'm wrong then that's really bad news for all of us.

I agree that nobody there wants a war, but wars generally don't happen because they're wanted, they happen because leaders find themselves in a difficult position they can't get out of. Kim is now in such a position. The South is telling him to back down and admit defeat, and Kim is refusing to. If he does, he likely faces a threat from his own military.

Either way, we don't win here unless we deal with him.
If Kim doesn't back down and this continues to escalate we will likely see a war between North and South Korea, with the US involved.
If Kim does back down, we'll likely see a destabilization of NK as his generals take control, fearing for their own lives and having lost belief in the power of their "great leader". The NK military being in control of NK is a terrifying prospect that neither the US nor SK would be able to tolerate.

a reply to: Rocker2013

Most of them aren't that old, and are designed to operate in shallow water. That's going to make it a nightmare to find them.

a reply to: Rocker2013

A single tanker doesn't mean anything. It can only keep a few fighters flying for a little longer than normal. It could carry people and cargo though.

a reply to: Rocker2013

This is a very simplistic way to view things though, and things are definitely not this simple.

I prefer to think it's a level headed way to look at the situation , I still believe NK will win minor concessions at the talks that it can spin as a victory for the leader , it has happened before it will no doubt happen again.

Although very different situations I think there is a parallel with the Greek situation , how many times this year has the Grexit been expected yet the powers that be refuse to let it happen , they know they can't afford for it to happen and it's the same with NK.

Either way, we don't win here unless we deal with him.

The only way we can deal with him is through dialogue , the military option is too dangerous to contemplate.

Lets hope level heads prevail , for all our sakes.

Not sure if this was mentioned in this thread already or not, but wasn't there a thread a few months back about NK equipping their subs with ballistic missile capabilities.....I even remember seeing pics of them....

And I guess I remember because it was one of my own threads...LOL!

www.abovetopsecret.com...

a reply to: Vasa Croe

Only the new Sinpo.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: Vasa Croe

Only the new Sinpo.

Any chance you know if that is one of the subs or types that is missing?

Songun

Songun (or, alternatively, Seon'gun) is North Korean "military first" policy, prioritizing the Korean People's Army in the affairs of state and allocation of resources. "Military first" as a principle guides political and economic life in North Korea, with "military-first politics" dominating the political system; "a line of military-first economic construction" acting as an economic system; and "military-first ideology" serving as the guiding ideology.

The songun era began in 1960 when a young Kim Jong-il, together with his father Kim Il-sung, visited the Seoul 105th Guards Armored Division HQ in Pyongyang on August 25. It was the first of Kim Jong-il's many visits to various Korean People's Army installations across North Korea. August 25 is now a national North Korean holiday.

For anyone who wants to read up a little and become more familiar with the North Korean mentality.

Songun

Songun celebration day starts in 15 minutes in North Korea, while a Typhoon is due to hit South Korea on Tuesday also, before moving up the coast into North Korea on Wednesday.

I think they may just be gearing up to take on SK....these missing subs, along with the million or so new recruits for their army according to this source.. Source make me think they are about to go to war with SK and fully expect the US to get involved. Check the links out from that source as well...there are a lot of interesting stories hitting from NK and SK right now.

I wouldn't worry. They are using screen doors and faith in the supreme leader to keep the water from pouring in.

originally posted by: Ancient Champion

Dozens of N. Korean submarines left their bases at both Eastern and Western coast, and can’t be located.

Apparently there's been an explosion at the Tokyo Airport. What the hell is going on over there?

originally posted by: johnwick

originally posted by: stormbringer1701

originally posted by: johnwick

originally posted by: stormbringer1701

originally posted by: johnwick



That would only be possible if both the US and SK did absolutely nothing about it while shells rained from the sky.
Of course, that's laughable.

The reality is that the moment NK fires anything at them the US and SK will pound every NK position capable of hitting any SK target.

NK might have plenty aimed at SK, but most of that would miss, and most of those positions would be destroyed within minutes of firing anything.

My peacetime mission was to locate all hardened NK firing positions well enough to lob a copperhead down the front while the blast doors are open when they registered thier guns or practice fired. we know where they live. but since then tech has gotten even better. plus the ROKA has equipment and training parity with the US now. That is a part of the reason the plan changed from task force smith II (retreat and hold a beach head for reinforcements from Hi, japan alaska and the east coast mountain boys) to the 72 hour curb-stomp everything that needs curb-stomping in NK on the way to the northern border.

The ROKA has all of our latest stuff, not just the hand me downs or export versions. They are very tough and extremely disciplined even without it. They are trained to our standards and beyond. Thier readiness is why a lot of the US forces were able to be relocated to southern locations about a decade ago.

As i said there are things the north must do if they really are going to launch a war. things they cannot hide or disguise. these become evident 7 to nine days before the commencement of hostile fire in a full war secenario. i am not talking about a field commander lobbing a few rounds at a guard tower, or commandos planting a mine, axe murdering a detail in the dmz or even a minisub raid on seoul but a full blown KW II. that has an unmistakeable tell. and when we see that tell we are not waiting for them to fire the first round. not any more. within one hour of the decision all units will have full UBL and be in their starting positions. shortly after that the combined forces will roll over the DMZ with no take backs apologies or hand wringing and they will not stop curbstomping that until they are all but mooning the Chinese on the northern border.

Copper head, storm, are you a 13 series?

Bunny or echo/ delta? Or one of those crazy assed foxes?

13R actually. Counter battery Counter RAM firefinder Radar systems.

I believe that the MOS may have reclassed as deltas or something else now. back then it was romeo.

I was 13-E, I believe they reclassified as delta.

You ever been around the triple seven?

After my time, but it is an amazing gun!

when i came in; the Motor Hole had mostly 8 inchers and a few 155s. the old school stuff. then along came the MLRS and the 8 inchers went off to the NG. When i got out it was 155mm (paladins), the MLRS long fully fielded and HIMARS which were just being field tested. other than the 2ID i was strictly in heavy divisions like the Cav at Ft Hood or else on instructor duty at TRADOC at FT Sill.

originally posted by: s1ngular1ty
Apparently there's been an explosion at the Tokyo Airport. What the hell is going on over there?

I think you are talking about the steel plant that was near the airport, but what does Japan have to do with this?

Koreas reach agreement after marathon talks to defuse tensions - media

link

originally posted by: Pebujesa
Koreas reach agreement after marathon talks to defuse tensions - media

link

So far that is all just guessing.....nobody knows what the "agreement" is until the announcement.

originally posted by: Vasa Croe

originally posted by: Pebujesa
Koreas reach agreement after marathon talks to defuse tensions - media

link

So far that is all just guessing.....nobody knows what the "agreement" is until the announcement.

I believe SK media has suggested that NK is willing to "Express regret" over the land mine incident, and SK will end propaganda broadcasts across the border.

So, both sides end up looking weak.

If this is genuine, SK will look pathetic for walking away from this with an "expression of regret" (meaning no responsibility) and the North will look weak for showing regret at all.

However, this isn't over yet. Now Kim will have to deal with his military and his public, and he's going to look weak in front of them as a result of this climb down.

If this is actually what's announced, then we should expect to see NK generals being executed in the next week or so, or potentially some form of coup taking place to remove Kim. Either way, NK is not going to be as stable as it was before this all kicked off.

a reply to: Vasa Croe

It's not even sure that it's operational yet. It's been moved around the yard but earlier this year it was still partially covered.

originally posted by: Rocker2013
I believe SK media has suggested that NK is willing to "Express regret" over the land mine incident, and SK will end propaganda broadcasts across the border.

So, both sides end up looking weak.

Does it really? Accidents do happen, its a freakin warzone there... But all SK wanted was the achnowledgement that NK did it. SK themselves would hardly have gone to war over it, if that was the case shells would already be whizzing through the air.

So now, if NK apologize its the same thing as admitting they did it, planting mines where they shouldnt have. SK turn off the speakers in turn? A logical gesture of faith. I seriously dont they would turn them off otherwise.

This will only show that NK is weak, not SK. The very idea that NK even agree to this show that they dont really want war - or they think they cant win it. Because if they did... Well you get the idea. They basicly stared down each others barrels and NK backed off.

That's what I read out of it anyway. But I'm guessing it wont be the Great Leader that apologize, it will probably be some no-name official that claim even gods can make mistakes.

Of course, chances are highly likely its also a NK ruse. They simply need more time to get into positions, maybe they didnt expect SK to agree so soon.