70% of North Korea’s Submarines have Left their Bases, Can’t be Located

originally posted by: bkfd54
U.S. Pacific Fleet, you can be rest assured, is well in control of this situation...

Explain. It's funny how every American thinks we have the best stuff, we are the only ones with certain capabilities, and we are in control of everything. It's a sort of nationalism, every country does it.

There's more to it.

SEOUL, Aug. 24 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has deployed about 20 air-cushioned landing crafts near the inter-Korean sea border as the country ratcheted up its combat readiness despite on-going talks with the South to defuse military tension, military sources said Monday. About 20 North Korean air-cushioned landing ships have left their home base in the northwestern coastal district Cholsan and come forward to the waters close to Nampo, a port city located far south, the sources said. Some of the ships are seen moving farther south to reach the Goampo naval base, located about 60 kilometers above the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea, the de facto inter-Korean sea border, the sources said.

"Air-cushioned ships are a means of infiltration which moves on the back of escort support from other naval vessels," one of the sources said. The country may have also put escort vessels into operations as part of the deployment, the source said. The North has also deployed the other two infiltration forces -- about 50 submarines and special artillery troops -- near the border as the country followed the quasi-war declaration up with a tougher combat readiness posture.

a reply to: 2wheelvet

Because it's true....regardless of your political view, or economic status the fact is we are the most powerful military in the world...and yes we have the biggest, coolest and, most badass toys.

I'm afraid some (if not all) of us armchair generals here will be suprised of the (conventional first strike) capabilities of the North Korean Army. We simply don't know what they can do and pulling off jokes about them doesn't help.

originally posted by: Talliostro
I'm afraid some (if not all) of us armchair generals here will be suprised of the (conventional first strike) capabilities of the North Korean Army. We simply don't know what they can do and pulling off jokes about them doesn't help.

I'm in South Korea, and there are no jokes here in Area 1. Everyone at home can say what they want, if it starts here, it'll be much more devastating than these 'armchair generals' think.

a reply to: 2wheelvet

yeah youre one of the sane people posting here and when SHTF I hope you can get away fast (or at least find some proper shelter). If you're in the army I wish you the best of luck and hope you survive this.

a reply to: Ancient Champion

North Korean have submarines! There probably pedal powered. LoL

So whats the score, 2 at sea and 1 in the dry dock?

a reply to: 2wheelvet

If the SHTF keep safe .

originally posted by: bkfd54
a reply to: 2wheelvet

Because it's true....regardless of your political view, or economic status the fact is we are the most powerful military in the world...and yes we have the biggest, coolest and, most badass toys.

As recent history shows the most powerful military doesn't always win the war.

originally posted by: 2wheelvet

originally posted by: bkfd54
U.S. Pacific Fleet, you can be rest assured, is well in control of this situation...

Explain. It's funny how every American thinks we have the best stuff, we are the only ones with certain capabilities, and we are in control of everything. It's a sort of nationalism, every country does it.

When comparing the military hardware of NK and the US, it's absolutely true that the US is far more advanced and far more capable.
I hate nationalist cheer leading as much as the next person, but there is absolutely no denying that NK relies on outdated equipment, supported by a crumbling infrastructure, and managed by inexperienced generals who have relied on pretty weak exercises to train their forces.

Even if NK wasn't relying on equipment from the 80's and 90's, you can't possibly claim that NK has the logistical capability or the experience of the US armed forces.

Whether you want to admit it or not, the US can move thousands of troops into position and build a fully functioning city and infrastructure to support those troops within just a few days. The US had had decades of experience, fighting real enemies. NK, on the other hand, has been limited to a fraction of that kind of training, it hasn't mobilized its forces in any way close to what it's doing right now since the Korean war, something even their own generals probably had little or no actual experience of.

Even the leadership of the country is full of fractures. How can you lead a military into war and expect to win when you can't even trust your own staff? If the US went to war tomorrow, Obama would have thousands of staff supporting the effort, across all branches of the military. In contrast, Kim has a very small collection of people even he doesn't trust, as evidenced by the constant shuffling and executions.

If you want to compare the US and China, or the US and Russia, then it would be a different matter.

The only power NK has ever had in its military ambitions is its targeting of civilians in Seoul, and the belief that China would automatically come to its rescue. Right now it looks like China is only interested in insulating itself from whatever happens in the North, and SK is increasingly realizing that as long as NK exists in its current state Seoul will continue to be at risk and used as a hostage.

The overwhelming advantage the North Koreans have is the number of boots on ground they can put in place . But this reminds me of a rather famous Swiss quote .

When the German Kaiser asked in 1912 what the quarter of a million Swiss militiamen would do if invaded by a half million German soldiers, a Swiss replied: shoot twice and go home.

....I would be willing to bet US submarines are shadowing a few of those "lost" 70 NK subs. You won't know and it won't be in the news if we are. Also, on the surface, sub hunting destroyers are very efficient.

70% of North Korea’s Submarines have Left their Bases, Can’t be Located

Because they are too small, world surveillance wasn´t ready for one man submarines made from cardboard...

originally posted by: hutch622
The overwhelming advantage the North Koreans have is the number of boots on ground they can put in place . But this reminds me of a rather famous Swiss quote .

When the German Kaiser asked in 1912 what the quarter of a million Swiss militiamen would do if invaded by a half million German soldiers, a Swiss replied: shoot twice and go home.

Nice quote, I never heard that before!!

I wonder if that through indoctrination their troops are more fanatical? We have seen the "well trained" Iraqi army roll over in the face of Muslim extremists, what if these take 2 bullets and keep on coming?

Personally having listened to US servicemen on ATS, the border guys in SK sound like the BAOR (British Army of the Rhine) were to the Russians - just a speed-bump whilst the Allies mobilize behind Berlin. If that is coming from serving and ex-serving men I wouldn't take the NK threat lightly.

However, I do think that the US and therefore their SK allies have such good intelligence that as pointed out here, a proper mobilization would not go unnoticed. So if that is the case and both North and South know this - how can the current posturing and threats be taken seriously by the South when there is only a limited skirmish threat? If this is the case then in my opinion, NK are going to have to have the minerals (stupidity?) to make it look like they are mobilizing whilst under the knowledge they could be bombed into the stone age if their posturing is taken seriously as pre-emptive seems the only way to guarantee non nuclear....

Is MrSpad on holidays - he knows his sh!t.

I dont really think the whereabouts of 70% of NK Submarines is a problem, you only need to know where they are if they are a threat and so if they become a threat one would hope that at that point there whereabouts would be known.

I think about the UK and the loss of Nimrod MPA whether we would know if a Kilo Class (thanks Red October) was parked off the South Coast and whether it really matters anyway, I mean, you protect your fleet with the Helicopters and other ships when you are projecting power, but if a Nuclear War was going to happen, whether you have 5 minutes notice or 30 minutes notice - your dead anyway.

Finally - just noticed the hovercraft - wtf use is a hovercraft to NK in a war with SK?

I think they were made from old wrapping paper tubes so they have subsequently sank after getting too wet.

a reply to: bkfd54

So what. Have you ever bothered to study ASW? Diesel submarines are almost impossible to find even in the open ocean. In littoral conditions like these are designed to operate in, there's almost no chance in hell.

As for them being shadowed, you have to have boats in the area first, then you have to find them. The US Navy spent three years playing with a new diesel sub they leased from a friendly nation, and the few times they found it, was because they got lucky.

a reply to: Forensick

I wonder if that through indoctrination their troops are more fanatical? We have seen the "well trained" Iraqi army roll over in the face of Muslim extremists, what if these take 2 bullets and keep on coming?

People no matter how indoctrinated don't want to die . Well Isis aside . I would imagine the north Koreans would stop fighting in droves once they realised that fat boy no longer has life or death decisions over their fate . Perhaps they have been indoctrinated beyond this but once the shooting begins fat boy is not going to be sitting behind them .

originally posted by: Forensick
I wonder if that through indoctrination their troops are more fanatical? We have seen the "well trained" Iraqi army roll over in the face of Muslim extremists, what if these take 2 bullets and keep on coming?

I think this is an unknown at the moment.
While indoctrination in NK is severe, and based on extreme idolatry, these are a people who are constantly hungry, underdeveloped, and poorly trained. It doesn't matter if there really is a million of them, a large number of those soldiers would probably surrender pretty quickly or be subdued extremely easily.
Some might be crazy enough to believe the bs of their "leader" to the point of suicide, but I personally don't think it would be that hard.

originally posted by: Forensick
I dont really think the whereabouts of 70% of NK Submarines is a problem, you only need to know where they are if they are a threat and so if they become a threat one would hope that at that point there whereabouts would be known.

They are a threat simply because they've been deployed, presumably combat-ready.
You can bet that although SK says they "don't know where they are", they probably do. These are not modern subs, they're rusting, clunking, squeaking buckets with people in them.
Chances are several of them have probably failed already.

originally posted by: Forensick
Finally - just noticed the hovercraft - wtf use is a hovercraft to NK in a war with SK?

It's all part of the fantasy of the NK regime.
They imagine a unified Korea, but under the dictatorship of the North. They have a delusional ambition to invade SK and take it by force, which of course is laughable.
If they actually used those landing craft to invade SK, they would first be met with incredible force from the SK military and the US, and any that did manage to get through would likely defect within hours when they realize how the people in the South actually live.

It's hard to imagine what the situation is like there, but the vast majority of those soldiers genuinely have no idea how even their neighbors right there in the South live, they have little notion of the quality of life just over the border. They're fed so much propaganda they truly believe that everyone outside of NK is starving to death, working in slave camps, living under "dictators" and military juntas etc. Basically, everything you know about how NK people live, they think we have it worse. This is how the dictatorship stays in such control, all of their propaganda tells their people that everyone outside of their country is living in worse conditions than they are.

One of the most fascinating propaganda videos I saw was one repeatedly showing Americans as all living homeless and having to survive on eating birds and drinking coffee made from snow. These two things were repeated over and over again. People might not understand why that would be, but it's because it tells the NK people that if they think their people struggle, America has it far worse.

The poor in NK are forced to boil grass for tea and eat cats and dogs? The Americans "don't even have that!"
To hammer home the point, the video even claimed that NK was sending AID to America to help them! lol

And remember, that propaganda is only for the middle classes in Pyongyang, the people who actually have a TV. The majority of the country outside of Pyongyang have absolutely nothing at all, the propaganda isn't even for them.

As I said, most of those soldiers would defect within hours of seeing inside SK. In fact, if those landing craft even come out toward SK they could probably be intercepted, sunk, and those aboard would be rescued and actually have a much better life as a result.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: bkfd54

So what. Have you ever bothered to study ASW? Diesel submarines are almost impossible to find even in the open ocean. In littoral conditions like these are designed to operate in, there's almost no chance in hell.

As for them being shadowed, you have to have boats in the area first, then you have to find them. The US Navy spent three years playing with a new diesel sub they leased from a friendly nation, and the few times they found it, was because they got lucky.

I normally agree with pretty much everything you say, but I'm going to have to disagree with you on this.
You're really comparing more modern subs with NK's outdated subs and the poor training and logistics that go with it.

NK doesn't have the experience, the training or the support systems in place for those old subs in the same way a modern military has for their more modern counterparts. NK is still playing with technology we all moved on from decades ago, and we moved on from them for a reason - they're more easily countered.

I don't think it's as easy as some have suggested, but I don't believe for one moment that this ragtag bunch of poorly trained NK submariners has anything on the US capability to watch them.

For those laughing about the hovercraft stuff, claiming North Korea couldn't possibly have such a thing. They are not as 'stone age' as many think. There are some stories out there about hovercrafts being photoshopped by the north, but we also have intelligence that the hovercraft have actually moved. So believe what you will.

The VSV is much faster than air-cushion vehicles deployed by North Korea, which can move at speeds of up to 96 km/h. The communist state has deployed about 70 air-cushion vehicles on its west coast and 60 of the amphibious vehicles in the east at its four hovercraft bases, according to a report by the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff. "North Korea has been constructing the very slender vessel since last year to enhance its commandos' maritime infiltration capability," the source said, asking for anonymity. "This is believed to be ready for deployment." The ship was first spotted in satellite imagery last year when Pyongyang conducted its first test run in the East Sea, the source said.

Korea Herald