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originally posted by: beezzer
OP, all kidding aside, you present a good case and would be a force to be reckoned with in this debate.
originally posted by: Grimpachi
So basically that means. Your sources are not based on science.
Orographic cloud in a GCM: the missing cirrus
Journal Climate Dynamics
Publisher Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
ISSN 0930-7575 (Print) 1432-0894 (Online)
Issue Volume 24, Numbers 7-8 / June, 2005
DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0020-9
Pages 771-780
Subject Collection Earth and Environmental Science
SpringerLink Date Monday, May 02, 2005
PDF (702.7 KB)HTMLFree Preview
Orographic cloud in a GCM: the missing cirrus
S. M. Dean1 , B. N. Lawrence2, R. G. Grainger1 and D. N. Heuff3
(1) Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, University of Oxford, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UK
(2) British Atmospheric Data Centre, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Oxfordshire, UK
(3) Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Received: 13 September 2004 Accepted: 25 February 2005 Published online: 27 April 2005
Abstract Observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatalogy Project (ISCCP) are used to demonstrate that the 19-level HadAM3 version of the United Kingdom Met Office Unified Model does not simulate sufficient high cloud over land. By using low-altitude winds, from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Re-Analysis from 1979 to 1994 (ERA-15) to predict the areas of maximum likelihood of orographic wave generation, it is shown that much of the deficiency is likely to be due to the lack of a representation of the orographic cirrus generated by sub-grid scale orography. It is probable that this is a problem in most GCMs.
The widely accepted (albeit unproven) theory that manmade global warming will accelerate itself by creating more heat-trapping clouds is challenged this month in new research from The University of Alabama in Huntsville.
Instead of creating more clouds, individual tropical warming cycles that served as proxies for global warming saw a decrease in the coverage of heat-trapping cirrus clouds, says Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist in UAHuntsville's Earth System Science Center.
That was not what he expected to find.
"All leading climate models forecast that as the atmosphere warms there should be an increase in high altitude cirrus clouds, which would amplify any warming caused by manmade greenhouse gases," he said. "That amplification is a positive feedback. What we found in month-to-month fluctuations of the tropical climate system was a strongly negative feedback. As the tropical atmosphere warms, cirrus clouds decrease. That allows more infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space."
The results of this research were published today in the American Geophysical Union's "Geophysical Research Letters" on-line edition. The paper was co-authored by UAHuntsville's Dr. John R. Christy and Dr. W. Danny Braswell, and Dr. Justin Hnilo of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA.
Koutsoyiannis, D., A. Efstratiadis, N. Mamassis, and A. Christofides, On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008.
[doc_id=864]
[English]
Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.
originally posted by: Kali74
a reply to: Grimpachi
Video talks about why it's not the natural cycle... 1st post: "It's natural cycles"
lol
Vol.5, No.10, 1112-1120 (2013) Natural Science
dx.doi.org...
Terrestrial ground temperature variations in relation to solar magnetic variability, including the present Schwabe cycle
C. de Jager1, H. Nieuwenhuijzen2
1Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Formerly Astronomical Institute and SRON Laboratory for Space Research, Sorbon- nelaan 2, Utrecht, The Netherlands; [email protected]
2SRON Laboratory for Space Research, Sorbonnelaan 2, Utrecht, The Netherlands; [email protected]
Received 20 August 2013; revised 20 September 2013; accepted 27 September 2013
Copyright © 2013 C. de Jager, H. Nieuwenhuijzen. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribu-tion License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
ABSTRACT
We study the influence of solar activity on cli- mate by investigating the relation between the long-term components of the total magnetic flu- xes of both the equatorial and polar fields of the sun and the average terrestrial ground tempera- ture. This is done for the period 1610 (beginning of systematic sunspot observations) till present with an extrapolation to 2015. It is found that from 1610 till about the first half of the 20th cen- tury the variation of the long-term average terre- strial ground temperatures is chiefly due to the variation of solar activity, with seemingly ran- dom, non-solar residuals. Around 2007, after the Grand Maximum of the 20th century, solar activ- ity, after having gone through a remarkable tran- sition period (~2005 to ~2010), entered into an- other Grand Episode. That Episode started with the present solar cycle, in shape comparable to the equally weak Schwabe cycle #14. The tran- sition period, in combination with the present low Schwabe cycle causes that the solar con-tribution to the total terrestrial temperature vari- ation is small during the on-going decade. It re- sults in a slowing down of the rise of tempera- ture after ~2005.
...
originally posted by: Grimpachi
a reply to: marg6043
...
As you have clearly demonstrated repeatedly through the thread with you own short term memory.
I don't think they need to control it because you have the information in front of you and you still dont get it. Judging by the last house science committee and their ignorance on the subject though it may be feigned they are probably perfectly happy with those like yourself and the internet.
Al Gore could become world's first carbon billionaire
Al Gore, the former US vice president, could become the world's first carbon billionaire after investing heavily in green energy companies.
Last year Mr Gore's venture capital firm loaned a small California firm $75m to develop energy-saving technology.
The company, Silver Spring Networks, produces hardware and software to make the electricity grid more efficient.
The deal appeared to pay off in a big way last week, when the Energy Department announced $3.4 billion in smart grid grants, the New York Times reports. Of the total, more than $560 million went to utilities with which Silver Spring has contracts.
...
Al Gore, the Oilman Who Hates Oil By Matthew Vadum | August 7, 2008 | 5:43 PM EDT
...But I digress. The above sampling of mainstream media opinion on Gore and his speech is by no means exhaustive. That said, the actual evidence suggests Gore isn't quite as noble as selfless as star-struck journalists believe. Gore is a partner in Kleiner Perkins Caulfield & Byers, a venture capital firm. Kleiner Perkins pours investment dollars into green energy companies and not-so-green ones. An investment firm Gore chairs, Generation Investment Management (GIM), entered into a partnership with Kleiner Perkins to "provide funding and global business-building expertise to a range of businesses, both public and private, and to entrepreneurs." Gore makes money by promoting investments that bear the imprimatur of Kleiner Perkins and GIM - including those in the supposedly dirty oil business. So Al Gore is not only in the global warming business: he's in the oil business. This isn't Gore's first oil venture either: for years he's profited from oil investments. Like any smart businessman, he hedges his bets. If the global warming business eventually peters out, he can always make millions from black gold.
...
Carbon Trade Exchange is a global electronic exchange platform serving both the regulatory and voluntary carbon markets
With over 145 members in 22 countries, Carbon Trade Exchange offers its members a trusted and transparent electronic marketplace for buying and selling carbon credits. CTX supports the trading of carbon credits that are originated under both the United Nations Clean Development Mechanism (CERs) and independent voluntary standards (VERs).
...
Revealed: scandal of carbon credit firm
April 8, 2011
Ben Cubby
A SYDNEY carbon credits company thought to have been running some of the world's biggest offsets deals appears to be a fake, shifting paper certificates instead of saving forests and cutting greenhouse emissions.
Shift2neutral says it has made high-profile events such as the Australian PGA golf championship and the Sydney Turf Club's world-first ''green race day'' carbon neutral.
When pressed for examples of any specific project that has cut emissions to generate the carbon credits the company offers for sale, he was unable to provide even one
But deals to generate more than $1 billion worth of carbon credits by saving jungles from logging in the Philippines, the Congo and across south-east Asia do not seem to exist.
The global network of investors and carbon offset certifiers supposed to be brokering deals with foreign presidents and the World Bank can be traced to a modest office in a shopping village in Westleigh, staffed by shift2neutral's founder, Brett Goldsworthy.
...
Last February I speculated: Carbon Credit Trading, the next financial bubble to burst? That has now come to pass for U.S. markets with the collapse of the Chicago Climate Exchange.
Carbon credits allow industries to emit carbon dioxide above any cap & trade regulations imposed. The carbon market exists as a commodity only through the decisions of politicians and bureaucrats, who determine both the demand, by setting emissions limits, and the supply, by establishing criteria for offsets. It was a bubble waiting to burst. Unlike traditional commodities, which at sometime during the course of their market exchange must be delivered to someone in physical form, the carbon market is based on the lack of delivery of an invisible substance to no one.
Since 2005, when carbon trading was one of the fastest growing commodities, there was speculation that if the Obama administration passed cap & trade legislation, the market would grow to $3 trillion.
...
In the 17 years 11 months from October 1996 to August 2014 there was no global warming at all, according to the RSS satellite dataset, whose output is not significantly different from that of any other global-temperature dataset.
“Storms, droughts, floods, ocean acidification, sea-level rise”: The usual litany. As for storminess, the trend in severe hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones has been downward in recent decades; there has been no trend in landfalling Atlantic hurricanes for 150 years; and the U.S. has enjoyed its longest period without a major hurricane landfall since records began. There is no trend in extra-tropical storminess either, according to the IPCC’s special report on extreme weather.
As for floods, the same report, confirmed by the Fifth Assessment Report, says there is no evidence of any global increase in the frequency, intensity, or duration of floods.
As for droughts, Hao et al. (2014) show that the land area under drought has fallen slightly over the past 30 years.
As for ocean “acidification”, the ocean remains pronouncedly alkaline, with a pH around 8 (where 7 is neutral and values below 7, such as the 5.4 for rainwater, are acid). Why is rainwater acid? Because it is the “missing sink” that scrubs CO2 out of the atmosphere. When the rainfall reaches the ocean, it locally alters the pH at the surface by a minuscule amount. However, where rivers debouch into the ocean (as the Brisbane River does just opposite the Great Barrier Reef), pH can vary locally by large amounts: yet calcifying organisms thrive nevertheless.
As for sea-level rise, the GRACE gravitational-recovery satellites showed sea-level falling from 2003-2009 (Cazenave et al., 2009).
The Envisat satellite showed sea-level rising by a dizzying one-eighth of an inch during its eight-year lifetime from 2004-2012.
“13 of the last 14 years have been the warmest since records began”:
And, like it or not, there has been no trend in global temperatures for about 13.5 years on the mean of the terrestrial records and on the mean of the satellite records. Yet CO2 concentration has continued to rise at record rates. Absence of correlation necessarily implies absence of causation. The rising CO2 concentration cannot be causing the lack of warming evident over the past couple of decades.
“Not only Arctic but also Antarctic sea ice volume is declining”: Not a good moment to run this argument, given that satellites do not do a very good job of estimating ice thickness, but are at present showing a record high sea-ice extent in the Antarctic, a substantial recovery of Arctic ice even in the summer, and no appreciable change in global sea-ice extent throughout the 35-year satellite record.
originally posted by: Kali74
a reply to: SonOfTheLawOfOne
Ridiculous. If someone were to ask me what the weather is like in Boston and I only gave todays temperature weather, it wouldn't be an accurate picture at all. Today's weather was low 60's and cloudy with a sprinkle here and there. Saturday is going to be in the mid 80's. That poor person would show up to Boston in July wearing a warm rain coat and arrive in 90 degree sunshine. Boston's CLIMATE on the other-hand is hot summers, cold and snowy winters, cool to hot springs and hot to cool autumns.
The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time.
...
When we talk about climate change, we talk about changes in long-term averages of daily weather.
WASHINGTON - A United Nations climate change conference in Poland is about to get a surprise from 650 leading scientists who scoff at doomsday reports of man-made global warming - labeling them variously a lie, a hoax and part of a new religion.
Later today, their voices will be heard in a U.S. Senate minority report quoting the scientists, many of whom are current and former members of the U.N.'s own Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
About 250 of the scientists quoted in the report have joined the dissenting scientists in the last year alone.
In fact, the total number of scientists represented in the report is 12 times the number of U.N. scientists who authored the official IPCC 2007 report.
Here are some choice excerpts from the report:
* "I am a skeptic ... . Global warming has become a new religion." -- Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever.
* "Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly ... . As a scientist I remain skeptical." -- Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a Ph.D. in meteorology and formerly of NASA who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called "among the most pre-eminent scientists of the last 100 years."
* Warming fears are the "worst scientific scandal in the history ... . When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists." -- U.N. IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning Ph.D. environmental physical chemist.
* "The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn't listen to others. It doesn't have open minds ... . I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists." -- Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the U.N.-supported International Year of the Planet.
* "The models and forecasts of the U.N. IPCC "are incorrect because they only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity." -- Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
* "It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don't buy into anthropogenic global warming." -- U.S. Government Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
* "Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact, as water vapor and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide scene and always will." -- Geoffrey G. Duffy, a professor in the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland, New Zealand.
* "After reading [U.N. IPCC chairman] Pachauri's asinine comment [comparing skeptics to] Flat Earthers, it's hard to remain quiet." -- Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society's Probability and Statistics Committee and is an associate editor of Monthly Weather Review.
* "For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?" -- Geologist Dr. David Gee, the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer-reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in Sweden.
* "Gore prompted me to start delving into the science again and I quickly found myself solidly in the skeptic camp ... . Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact." -- Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland, who reversed his belief in man-made warming to become a skeptic, is a former member of the Dutch U.N. IPCC committee.
...
originally posted by: Kali74
a reply to: SonOfTheLawOfOne
What's ridiculous is your interpretation and what you choose to attack me over. None of them are saying climate and weather are the same thing. I'm not sure where you get "the DIFFERENCE between weather and climate" equals weather and climate are the same thing. Are hills and mountains the same thing because they're both mounds of earth?
originally posted by: Kali74
a reply to: Grimpachi
I think everything is going to be okay. I've been reading a lot lately about how far tech is coming and just how close to (10-15 years) effective renewables, especially solar, we are. I mean we are going to have to deal with some nastiness for sure, but I think it will get under control rather than spiral out. These droning voices matter less and less.