Ebola Patient in Atlanta Hospital

It doesn't spread that way. Please stop ignoring the CDC link that I have posted several times. It doesn't have to be an air tight seal. Just enough to block particulates. This isn't the flu.

a reply to: 00nunya00

a reply to: 00nunya00
The CDC and military also pride themselves on the ability to mobilize and go to where the infection is and to contain it in place. Shrugs.

a reply to: raymundoko

BTW, you can address my full post now.

Here.

originally posted by: jadedANDcynical
a reply to: ikonoklast

Great charts, i haven't spent the time to dig into your maths, but i was wondering if you had taken the virus' R0 factor of 2-4 into account?

Epidemiological modelling based on the data from previous EBOV outbreaks has produced a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.7 with a 95% confidence range of 1.9 to 4.1 (Legrand et al., 2007). This R0 is comparable to influenza (Mills et al., 2004) and would seem to be comfortably within the range required to generate an EVD pandemic.

The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak in west Africa

1 becomes 2-4, those become 8-16 more etc...

I saw that earlier and tried to do some calculations based on it while updating the newest versions of the charts. It's difficult, because we don't have enough details in the data being put out publicly. And this isn't my field, I just know how to read data, make graphs, and make logical conclusions. But it seemed to me from the calculations I tried that the current data and the projections do fall into that range between R0 range of 2-4.

You might find this graphic interesting, it has the most detailed transmission details for this outbreak that I've found, and it covers the first 3-4 months or so from the presumed first case. It was in Flash, but I managed to capture an image.

Click the image to view a larger image:

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

originally posted by: ~Lucidity
a reply to: 00nunya00
The CDC and military also pride themselves on the ability to mobilize and go to where the infection is and to contain it in place. Shrugs.

Precisely. Which is why I won't be surprised if they tell us 10 years from now that the patients were *actually* taken to USAMRIID and the whole Emory thing was a sham "for our security." Hopefully. I would LOVE that kind of sham. THAT would be a good example of the government protecting us while lying to us, for our own good.

a reply to: 00nunya00
I'm not sure we can be 100% positive they are even in Atlanta. That stop in Maine raises some questions.

I also find the two trips rather suspicious. The pictures of the plane shows two stretchers. And the plane's range...I just don't know enough.

There's something about the Maine thing....

Has anyone found information on the CDC's various warning levels and their definitions?

originally posted by: loam
Has anyone found information on the CDC's various warning levels and their definitions?

It seems:

Warning Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel
Alert Level 2, Practice Enhanced Precautions
Watch Level 1, Practice Usual Precautions

Source

Edit: current level 3 precautions:

Warning Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel
Updated Ebola in Liberia Updated August 04, 2014 CDC urges all US residents to avoid nonessential travel to Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone because of an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola. Read More >>
Updated Ebola in Guinea Updated August 04, 2014 CDC urges all US residents to avoid nonessential travel to Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone because of an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola. Read More >>
Updated Ebola in Sierra Leone Updated August 04, 2014 CDC urges all US residents to avoid nonessential travel to Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia because of an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola. Read More >>

a reply to: 00nunya00

I think that is a different alert system. See:

CDC Issues Highest Emergency Alert Amid Ebola Outbreak

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday ramped up its response to the expanding Ebola outbreak, a move that frees up hundreds of employees and signals the agency sees the health emergency as a potentially long and serious one.

The CDC’s “level 1 activation” is reserved for the most serious public health emergencies, and the agency said the move was appropriate considering the outbreak’s “potential to affect many lives.” The CDC took a similar move in 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and again in 2009 during the bird-flu threat.

So what is "Level 1 activation"? Where is this defined?

originally posted by: loam
Has anyone found information on the CDC's various warning levels and their definitions?

On first search this is what I found.


Health Alert Network (HAN)

CDC's Health Alert Network (HAN) is CDC's primary method of sharing cleared information about urgent public health incidents with public information officers; federal, state, territorial, and local public health practitioners; clinicians; and public health laboratories.

CDC’s HAN collaborates with federal, state, territorial, and city/county partners to develop protocols and stakeholder relationships that will ensure a robust interoperable platform for the rapid distribution of public health information.
www.bt.cdc.gov...

Still looking for more info on how and when it's done.

Des

a reply to: Destinyone

Yeah, I saw that too, but it doesn't really show the scale or definitions.

I've been searching all over and can't seem to find it.

a reply to: loam

Yikes. Where is this differing information on their webpage? Why do we have to go to the media, and not be able to just google "cdc alert level"? I've been researching on the net for 10+ years, why do they make this info so hard to find? :/ For instance, their own "travelers info page" is nothing but generic info and old info

a reply to: ~Lucidity
I hadn't really thought of it, but why did they fly from Liberia to Maine to refuel before going to Atlanta? Unless there were other stops (maybe in the UK or somewhere else in Europe?), that seems pretty far out of the way.

originally posted by: ikonoklast
a reply to: ~Lucidity
I hadn't really thought of it, but why did they fly from Liberia to Maine to refuel before going to Atlanta? Unless there were other stops (maybe in the UK or somewhere else in Europe?), that seems pretty far out of the way.

It's far out of the way. We discussed this about 40 pages back, why they would choose Bangor when ATL is closer, has a robust customs station, and is RIGHT THERE. Planes from Africa arrive daily in ATL. Bangor is even further than ATL; why would they refuel and inspect there when arguably, ATL has a more-experienced inspections staff and is the FINAL DESTINATION of the plane? Makes no sense. Hence why some of us are suspecting the patients actually went to USAMRIID instead, and the ATL plane was just a sham.

a reply to: 00nunya00

I guess we can sign up for email HAN alerts...here's the instructions.


Sign Up for HAN E-mail Updates
www.bt.cdc.gov...
You can sign up to receive HAN Update Alerts when a new HAN is added to the system by using the following steps:

Go to the CDC - Quick Subscribe GovDelivery page.
Enter your e-mail address and delivery preferences and click Save.
Select the Emergency Preparedness and Response / Health Alert Network (HAN) check box from the Quick Subscribe window and click Save.
Select your state from the state drop-down list box.
Enter your five-digit zip code in the zip code text box.
Select your country from the country drop-down list box and click Save.

Once you complete the previous steps, you will receive HAN alerts by e-mail when new HANs are distributed.

CDC email alert subscription form.
public.govdelivery.com...

Why do they not have the criteria for establishing a level alert anywhere? Do they use something like a magic 8 ball?

Des

SORRY. This is an old video from 2009. I meant to post it under the LEVELS definition post as an example of the levels.

a reply to: 00nunya00

Yup, I went to their main page and then their ebola page, but I don't see anything yet.

One thing that stuck out was the variant issue again.

About the virus

Genetic analysis of the virus indicates that it is closely related (97% identical) to variants of Ebola virus (species Zaire ebolavirus) identified earlier in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gabon (Baize et al. 2014).

Here.

I keep thinking about that three percent.

Aren't some primates a variant of less than 3% from humans?

a reply to: ikonoklast

originally posted by: [post=18244828]~Lucidity


Here's more information I found about the jet that brought them to Atlanta.

This Amazing Jet Will Transport Ebola Victims From Africa To The U.S.

It's a GIII, with a range of 5,070 miles (4,410 nautical miles) with maximum fuel and reserves, but wen flying at its top cruise speed, it can fly 3,330 miles (2,900 nautical miles) nonstop.

It is Distance is 8107 kilometers or 5038 miles or 4378 nautical miles from Liberia to Atlanta.

So I guess it makes sense it had to stop to refuel in Maine?

However, the distance from Libera to Maine? That's 7079 kilometers or 4399 miles or 3822 nautical miles.

Does it still make sense? I dunno. Maybe Zaphod's already been here?

Aside from all this, doesn't it look to you as if it can fit two patients? So why did they bring them one at a time?

'Premature' to Say U.S. Should Green-light New Ebola Drug

link

originally posted by: loam
a reply to: 00nunya00

Yup, I went to their main page and then their ebola page, but I don't see anything yet.

One thing that stuck out was the variant issue again.

About the virus

Genetic analysis of the virus indicates that it is closely related (97% identical) to variants of Ebola virus (species Zaire ebolavirus) identified earlier in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gabon (Baize et al. 2014).

Here.

I keep thinking about that three percent.

Aren't some primates a variant of less than 3% from humans?

Yeah, that's about the percentage of differing DNA from humans to apes. CERTAINLY the same thing, right? [/sarcasm] :/