Ebola Patient in Atlanta Hospital

a reply to: crazyewok

That makes sense CE...they have X amount for 2 people, but no clue how much it will take per person. To our knowledge, this is the first time it's being used on humans.

But the Media running with a giant splash of, they found the miracle one dose cure for ebola, is all that people are going to remember.

Des

Ebola Toll Tops 900; Saudis Investigate Deathl

The World Health Organization will convene an ethics panel next week to discuss whether the experimental drug ZMapp should be given to some Ebola patients across West Africa.

A worried world watches as Ebola death toll rises; Spain to treat priest

A nurse in Nigeria. A businessman in Saudi Arabia. A Spanish priest in Liberia.

Posting video DirtyD referred to:

Nigerian Nurse Who Treated Ebola Patient Dies Of The Disease

Meanwhile, the World Health Organization began a meeting to decide whether the crisis, the worst recorded outbreak of its kind, amounts to an international public health emergency. At least 932 deaths in four countries have been blamed on the illness, with 1,711 reported cases.

As Ebola Spreads in Nigeria, Debate About Experimental Drugs Grows

At the top of their agenda: to advise whether the outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. That's a formal designation that would open the way for WHO's Director-General, Dr. Margaret Chan, to recommend "extraordinary measures," such as travel and trade restrictions in the region. These would not be binding. But they would carry considerable weight.

Death Toll in Ebola Virus Outbreak Reaches 932

The number of people to have died in the worst Ebola outbreak in history has risen to at least 932, the World Health Organization said on Wednesday, as overworked hospital staff struggled to quell the epidemic and in many cases became its front-line victims.

Between Saturday and Monday, 45 people died of the disease in West Africa, while the number of cases in the region rose by 108, the WHO reported as it began a two-day emergency meeting in Geneva to determine whether the outbreak constitutes a public-health emergency and how to address it.

And with each person who contracts the disease the risk of spreading it grows exponentially. This ain't rocket science. In fact, it's high school science.

a reply to: 00nunya00

There is a chance we wont get all the fine details due to doctor confidentiality. But we may get some if a paper is released about the findings of the serum. But that may not be for a while as two test subjects is not really enough, likely we will have to wait until its tested on more. If a paper does come out names of the patients likely wont be mentioned so you wont know who was who.

Basically we will have to wait for the paper to give its findings.

originally posted by: Destinyone
a reply to: crazyewok

That makes sense CE...they have X amount for 2 people, but no clue how much it will take per person. To our knowledge, this is the first time it's being used on humans.

But the Media running with a giant splash of, they found the miracle one dose cure for ebola, is all that people are going to remember.

Des

Yeah the media are not helping this at all.

As far as Africans are concerned, America are treating there own and leaving them to die. That puts American aid workers over there in danger plus you could end up with people trying to get into the USA for the miracle cure.

The media have not helped one bit on this

a reply to: ~Lucidity

Your YouTube is broken, Luc.

Crazyewok: exactly. A few years from now, we will know if it was the serum that saved Brantley, or just his superior immune system bolstered by western-hemisphere living. :/ Still worth a shot, though, I guess.

The current outbreak is caused by a variant of Zaire Ebolavirus with 97% sequence identity to strains isolated from the DRC and Gabon, suggesting a parallel evolution of this virus in the affected area as opposed to introduction from these endemic areas.[4]

3% difference is significant on a genetic level, this is a new strain we are dealing with.

The disease progresses rapidly to multisystem involvement that may include systemic, gastrointestinal, respiratory and vascular features.[1]

Ebola virus disease in West Africa – an unprecedented outbreak

And yes, I know that by the late stages a person is not likely to be ambulatory.

But.

The only thing that is typical of this outbreak is that it is atypical. All it takes is one tiny mutation and this thing is captain tripps.

WHO's recent statement tells me that they've shat themselves and we are precariously close to somethng biblical.

a reply to: raymundoko

Here is what I see as the problem. There is in fact a distinction between droplet transmission and airborne transmission. In fact, the CDC describes droplet transmission as follows:

I.B.3.b. Droplet transmission:

Droplet transmission is, technically, a form of contact transmission, and some infectious agents transmitted by the droplet route also may be transmitted by the direct and indirect contact routes.

...

The maximum distance for droplet transmission is currently unresolved, although pathogens transmitted by the droplet route have not been transmitted through the air over long distances, in contrast to the airborne pathogens discussed below. Historically, the area of defined risk has been a distance of less than 3 feet around the patient and is based on epidemiologic and simulated studies of selected infections 103, 104.

CDC Link.

With me so far?

Now the CDC proceeds to say:

Droplet size is another variable under discussion. Droplets traditionally have been defined as being greater than 5 μm in size. Droplet nuclei, particles arising from desiccation of suspended droplets, have been associated with airborne transmission and defined as less than 5 μm in size...

Observations of particle dynamics have demonstrated that a range of droplet sizes, including those with diameters of 30μm or greater, can remain suspended in the air. The behavior of droplets and droplet nuclei affect recommendations for preventing transmission. Whereas fine airborne particles containing pathogens that are able to remain infective may transmit infections over long distances, requiring AIIR to prevent its dissemination within a facility; organisms transmitted by the droplet route do not remain infective over long distances, and therefore do not require special air handling and ventilation.

So infectious droplet range is under question. (I'll come back to this.)

The CDC defines airborne transmission as follows:

I.B.3.c. Airborne transmission:

Airborne transmission occurs by dissemination of either airborne droplet nuclei or small particles in the respirable size range containing infectious agents that remain infective over time and distance (e.g., spores of Aspergillus spp, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis).

Note that airborne transmission involves droplets too. So the distinction hinges on infectious droplets under 5 micrometers that remain infective over time and distance.

First, let's cover the distance issue.

In April of this year, a study published in the Journal of Fluid Mechanics, addressed this very issue:

Droplets from coughs and sneezes travel farther than you think

It is common knowledge that when we cough or sneeze, we should cover our mouth and nose with a tissue to prevent germs from becoming airborne. Now, new research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests this instruction is more important than ever; they found that droplets from coughs or sneezes can travel up to 200 times farther than previously thought.

...

The team found that, contrary to previous beliefs, each droplet from a cough or sneeze is connected through interaction with a gas cloud.

...

Droplets that are 100 micrometers in diameter were found to travel five times farther than past estimates, while droplets 10 micrometers in diameter were found to travel 200 times farther. In addition, the team found that droplets less that 50 micrometers in size are often able to stay airborne long enough to enter ceiling ventilation units.

That certainly calls into question the three feet language I've see thrown about in the media. Moreover, the question of "what happens to pathogens in the droplets carried by the gas cloud" is still under investigation.

Now, let's cover the time issue.

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days (23). Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C (6, 20). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation.

Source.

So Ebola can live outside a host in liquid AND dried material at room temperature for several days.

Finally, let's discuss the size of the Ebola virus:

It is an elongated filamentous molecule, which can vary between 800 - 1000 nm in length, and can reach up to14000 nm long (due to concatamerization) with a uniform diameter of 80 nm.

Source.

Incidentally, 1 micrometer equals 1000 nanometers, which is relevant when you consider the less than 5 micrometer airborne distinction described above.

Now all of this is not to say the current Ebola crisis we are facing is in fact airborne. But it is meant to warn against DEFINITIVE pronouncements that it is not or can't be.

The word "MAYBE" should not be eliminated from our discussions.

a reply to: Destinyone

Des (and all), I thought you might want to know that I have updated the charts/graphs showing the rate this outbreak is spreading at. They are posted here:

Ebola - my visual charts & projections based on WHO data

The original charts were based on a little more than 4 months of data from WHO, but I found a lot more data from The New England Journal of Medicine and now have a little more than 9 months of data... starting from the presumed first case, on December 2, 2013!

YAY. I FIGURED IT OUT!

Less than and greater than symbols in my quoted text were being interpreted as BBCODE in some way. When I edit them to plain English it posts fully.

originally posted by: 00nunya00
a reply to: ~Lucidity

Your YouTube is broken, Luc.

Crazyewok: exactly. A few years from now, we will know if it was the serum that saved Brantley, or just his superior immune system bolstered by western-hemisphere living. :/ Still worth a shot, though, I guess.

Certainly. Hopefully they can get enough to start the treatment on some more soon.

Soon as they can confirm if it was the serum the sooner a large scale manufacturing process can be set up.
There are likely rushing this as fast as they can.

a reply to: 00nunya00
Fixed. Thanks.


a reply to: loam
Or use tinylink.com with these pesky special-charactered links.

a reply to: loam

YAY, it's working now! Very cogent and concise post, IMHO.

Ikonoklast: visiting your thread now! Thank you for the statistical analysis!

a reply to: ikonoklast
Those graphs are great. They relate to the video DirtyD found really well too. Like Dr Gupta says, it's daunting. And people get scared and hide.

originally posted by: ikonoklast
a reply to: Destinyone

Des (and all), I thought you might want to know that I have updated the charts/graphs showing the rate this outbreak is spreading at. They are posted here:

Ebola - my visual charts & projections based on WHO data

The original charts were based on a little more than 4 months of data from WHO, but I found a lot more data from The New England Journal of Medicine and now have a little more than 9 months of data... starting from the presumed first case, on December 2, 2013!

WOW. In the 100's of thousands. You can't argue with the maths. :/ Hopefully this gets under control soon, so we don't see those numbers, but.......flu season bears down upon us in the northern hemisphere all too soon. (Flu season meaning a time of lesser-immunity to infectious diseases). Plus, school starts again soon. Yikes. Let's all hope it doesn't go this way. Thank you for the analysis, Ikon. Not a pleasant read, but an informative one, nonetheless. :/

originally posted by: 00nunya00
A third dose? Seriously? Please link? This is ridiculous now. How many are they hiding?

Trying to find a link to that statement by him. It was no more than 30 minutes ago and he mentioned it yesterday as well. The only reason I remember it is because I had a similar reaction to yours above.

EDIT TO ADD SOURCE:

CNN.com - Transcripts

GUPTA: And, Michaela, I should point out we first reported about this experimental serum, this experimental medication Monday morning. We now know -- that was the two doses she received in Liberia. We now know she's going to get that third dose here at Emory University. The doctors here have been talking to representatives from the NIH and the FDA to make that happen.

So, it would be the third and final dose for her we believe today, Michaela.

Bold mine.

This text can be found towards the end of the page.

a reply to: crazyewok

The Zmapp company consists of a whole 9 people. It will take a huge effort to gear up to mass production. I posted that link earlier in this thread.

Des

a reply to: Destinyone

The new death toll is over 900, with hundreds of new cases being reported.

No links yet, it was just reported on CNN maybe 30 mins ago.

MSM is waiting for Obama to arrive to a presser he called. They said he will address the ebola issue as part of it.

Des

a reply to: ~Lucidity

WOW. 8,500 according to Gupta, plus the 30k from Mr Sawyer, plus.......I don't even want to do that math anymore. Anyone here who is good at math and likes morbid subjects? I can't even wrap my mind around the chances. Purell, purell, purell.

a reply to: MyMindIsMyOwn

Re: Three doses. This makes sense. navydoc mentioned way back in this thread that with this type of treatment multiple doses are in fact necessary to keep up the improvement.