Ebola Patient in Atlanta Hospital

originally posted by: Destinyone
a reply to: crazyewok

The Zmapp company consists of a whole 9 people. It will take a huge effort to gear up to mass production. I posted that link earlier in this thread.

Des

Your right it will. Likely they had not even planned for that to happen for half a decade so they have been caught short.
There not going to be ready for a fast track set up.

When I worked for a big player it took 3-6 months to set up a production line just to run large scale R&D tests on. That was in a fortune 500 company.

a reply to: 00nunya00

Have you looked at ikonoklat's charts yet? See last page.

a reply to: crazyewok

I think they're making it in KY, Des and crazyewok. Let's not forget they have partners though (Tekmira, Monsanto, NIH, that other one I can never remember and so on).

originally posted by: ~Lucidity
a reply to: MyMindIsMyOwn

Re: Three doses. This makes sense. navydoc mentioned way back in this thread that with this type of treatment multiple doses are in fact necessary to keep up the improvement.

It does indeed, especially given that she did not have the advantage of a transfusion of blood from someone who has recovered from the virus recently, giving those much needed antibodies.

originally posted by: ikonoklast
a reply to: Destinyone

Des (and all), I thought you might want to know that I have updated the charts/graphs showing the rate this outbreak is spreading at. They are posted here:

Ebola - my visual charts & projections based on WHO data

The original charts were based on a little more than 4 months of data from WHO, but I found a lot more data from The New England Journal of Medicine and now have a little more than 9 months of data... starting from the presumed first case, on December 2, 2013!

Damn Ikon. Great work. CDC should hire you...or at least read the ATS threads with your work in them...

Des

a reply to: MyMindIsMyOwn
Unfortunately it also gives the opportunist virus time to adapt to resist and in some cases even thrive. Let's hope that's not the case here.

Also being reported, the patient at Mt. Sinai hospital in New York has tested negative for Ebola. So that's a relief.

Still can't find in print that the CDC has gone to level 1. But it's breaking news on CNN.

originally posted by: MyMindIsMyOwn

originally posted by: ~Lucidity
a reply to: MyMindIsMyOwn

Re: Three doses. This makes sense. navydoc mentioned way back in this thread that with this type of treatment multiple doses are in fact necessary to keep up the improvement.

It does indeed, especially given that she did not have the advantage of a transfusion of blood from someone who has recovered from the virus recently, giving those much needed antibodies.

If things really go South, heaven forbid. I see a lucrative black market in ebola survivors. OMG...that sounds like a bad body snatcher scifi movie, doesn't it.

Des

originally posted by: 00nunya00
Quoting for Loam:


a reply to: raymundoko

Here is what I see as the problem. There is in fact a distinction between droplet transmission and airborne transmission. In fact, the CDC describes droplet transmission as follows:

I.B.3.b. Droplet transmission:

Droplet transmission is, technically, a form of contact transmission, and some infectious agents transmitted by the droplet route also may be transmitted by the direct and indirect contact routes.

...

The maximum distance for droplet transmission is currently unresolved, although pathogens transmitted by the droplet route have not been transmitted through the air over long distances, in contrast to the airborne pathogens discussed below. Historically, the area of defined risk has been a distance of [less than] 3 feet around the patient and is based on epidemiologic and simulated studies of selected infections 103, 104.

CDC Link.

With me so far?

Now the CDC proceeds to say:

Droplet size is another variable under discussion. Droplets traditionally have been defined as being >5 μm in size. Droplet nuclei, particles arising from desiccation of suspended droplets, have been associated with airborne transmission and defined as [less than] 5 μm in size...

Observations of particle dynamics have demonstrated that a range of droplet sizes, including those with diameters of 30μm or greater, can remain suspended in the air. The behavior of droplets and droplet nuclei affect recommendations for preventing transmission. Whereas fine airborne particles containing pathogens that are able to remain infective may transmit infections over long distances, requiring AIIR to prevent its dissemination within a facility; organisms transmitted by the droplet route do not remain infective over long distances, and therefore do not require special air handling and ventilation.

So infectious droplet range is under question. (I'll come back to this.)

The CDC defines airborne transmission as follows:

I.B.3.c. Airborne transmission:

Airborne transmission occurs by dissemination of either airborne droplet nuclei or small particles in the respirable size range containing infectious agents that remain infective over time and distance (e.g., spores of Aspergillus spp, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis).

Note that airborne transmission involves droplets too. So the distinction hinges on infectious droplets under 5 micrometers that remain infective over time and distance.

First, let's cover the distance issue.

In April of this year, a study published in the Journal of Fluid Mechanics, addressed this very issue:

Droplets from coughs and sneezes travel farther than you think

It is common knowledge that when we cough or sneeze, we should cover our mouth and nose with a tissue to prevent germs from becoming airborne. Now, new research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests this instruction is more important than ever; they found that droplets from coughs or sneezes can travel up to 200 times farther than previously thought.

...

The team found that, contrary to previous beliefs, each droplet from a cough or sneeze is connected through interaction with a gas cloud.

...

Droplets that are 100 micrometers in diameter were found to travel five times farther than past estimates, while droplets 10 micrometers in diameter were found to travel 200 times farther. In addition, the team found that droplets less that 50 micrometers in size are often able to stay airborne long enough to enter ceiling ventilation units.

That certainly calls into question the three feet language I've see thrown about in the media. Moreover, the question of what happens to pathogens in the droplets carried by the gas cloud is still under investigation.

Now, let's cover the time issue.

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days (23). Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C (6, 20). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation.

Source.

So Ebola can live outside a host in liquid AND dried material at room temperature for several days.

Finally, let's discuss the size of the Ebola virus:

It is an elongated filamentous molecule, which can vary between 800 - 1000 nm in length, and can reach up to14000 nm long (due to concatamerization) with a uniform diameter of 80 nm.

Source.

Incidentally, 1 micrometer equals 1000 nanometers, which is relevant when you consider the less than 5 micrometer airborne distinction described above.

Now all of this is not to say the current Ebola crisis we are facing is in fact airborne. But it is meant to warn against DEFINITIVE pronouncements that it is not or can't be.

The word "MAYBE" should not be eliminated from our discussions.

**************

END

Good info.

Chemically, the difference between airborne and aerosol is that the airborne virus has to be protected from the oxygen in the atmosphere and Ultra Violet radiation.

Some viruses have protein shells. Filoviruses do not have protein shells, and so are unlikely ever to become truly airborne.

Filoviruses are small and simple, Oxygen and UV have direct access to their viral "guts" and tear them up instantaneously.

However, if interactive parts of the virus stay intact but the less active parts continued to grow, then over time, the virus could become airborne. An intermediate stage in this process is probably on the short list of what the CDC is looking for.

The virus can only mutate when it is reproducing. The more people it infects, the higher the mutation rate of the species, because more copies of the virus are made.

The more people that get infected the sooner it will mutate.

This outbreak is an order of magnitude larger than any previous outbreak. The rate of mutation, in terms of a functional change, will be an order of magnitude (ten times) bigger than any previous outbreak.

The mutation rates in these genomes have been estimated to be between 0.46 × 10−4 and 8.21 × 10−4 nucleotide substitutions/site/year.[15] The most recent common ancestor of both the Reston and Zaire species has been estimated to be ~1960. The most recent common ancestor of the Marburg and Sudan species appears to have evolved 700 and 850 years before present respectively. The complete family appears to have evolved ~10,000 years before the present.

en.wikipedia.org...

Glad people find the charts useful, thanks for the feedback.

If you haven't seen it yet, the President of Liberia just declared a national emergency:

...the President said, by the powers vested in her and according to the Constitution of the Republic of Liberia, she is declaring a State of Emergency effective immediately. This will be accompanied by the curtailing of certain rights and privileges.

Liberian Observer newspaper Facebook page

a reply to: ikonoklast

As bad as I feel for them. I hope this includes stopping all flights.

Des

a reply to: DirtyD
CNN TV has Obama press conference on now. Talking about Africa.

So far, Breitbart is the only one reporting this that I see... www.breitbart.com...

r. Tom Frieden, the director of the United States Center for Disease Control, announced this afternoon that the agency has elevated its response to the Ebola virus to Level 1-- the highest possible response level. The CDC heightened the level today in response to multiple new diagnoses and scares around the globe.

CDC Ops Center

originally posted by: DirtyD
Still can't find in print that the CDC has gone to level 1. But it's breaking news on CNN.

It's in 'print' on Breitbart News now.

And President Obama just started speaking...

a reply to: Semicollegiate

Here is the full post.

Sorry for all of the confusion.

originally posted by: Semicollegiate
This outbreak is an order of magnitude larger than any previous outbreak. The rate of mutation, in terms of a functional change, will be an order of magnitude (ten times) bigger than any previous outbreak.

The mutation rates in these genomes have been estimated to be between 0.46 × 10−4 and 8.21 × 10−4 nucleotide substitutions/site/year.[15] The most recent common ancestor of both the Reston and Zaire species has been estimated to be ~1960. The most recent common ancestor of the Marburg and Sudan species appears to have evolved 700 and 850 years before present respectively. The complete family appears to have evolved ~10,000 years before the present.

en.wikipedia.org...

This is an important point as well.

originally posted by: DirtyD
Also being reported, the patient at Mt. Sinai hospital in New York has tested negative for Ebola. So that's a relief.

Still can't find in print that the CDC has gone to level 1. But it's breaking news on CNN.

Thank God, that IS a relief. I have family there, and near there. Good to know. Phew. Thanks!

originally posted by: ~Lucidity
a reply to: crazyewok

I think they're making it in KY, Des and crazyewok. Let's not forget they have partners though (Tekmira, Monsanto, NIH, that other one I can never remember and so on).

Yep, right down the road from us, in Owensboro, KY from what the msm papers are saying.
www.kentucky.com...

a reply to: ikonoklast

I missed the confirmed 5 new cases in Nigeria. I thought those were still pending confirmation.

Whoa...reporter asking Obama about sending ebola cure to Africa....

Des

Obama now saying live that ebola is controllable IF you have a strong public health infrastructure and trust in place.

Saying it is not airborne and can be controlled and contained very effectively.

Reaching out to other countries working with the WHO and get all the workers we have on the ground and bolster them and prevent any additional outbreaks and see if there are additional drugs and treatments that improve survivability.

Focusing on public health approach.

Being asked if he would support fasttracking. Answer: He doesn't have enough data right now to support that.

a reply to: Destinyone

I didn't hear that. She asked about fasttracking the drugs, secret serums, vaccines, as in, I believe, waiving approval processes and loosening testing and trial guidelines and probably allowing people to decide for themselves as the two patients in Atlanta were said to.