Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

New update from WHO:

There could be 10,000 new cases of ebola per week within two months, health officials have warned.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) said 8,914 cases of ebola have now been reported in West Africa, including 4,447 deaths.

WHO assistant director general Bruce Aylward told a press conference in Geneva that the total was expected to top 9,000 by the end of this week.

He warned that the death rate from the current outbreak has now risen to 70%. It was previously estimated at about 50%.

it seems the Mortality rate is rising now, so it could be mutating faster than expected or it could just be more people infected.

news.sky.com...

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

With the CDC worst case scenario it would be 91000 a week in a last 3 weeks of January.

From previous estimates put out by WHO the numbers always seems to be very conservative yet they are always overly optimistic on slowing it down.

My guess is the WHO 10000 a week is a best case scenario.

originally posted by: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

He warned that the death rate from the current outbreak has now risen to 70%. It was previously estimated at about 50%.

it seems the Mortality rate is rising now, so it could be mutating faster than expected or it could just be more people infected.

news.sky.com...

I don't think the ebola virus needs to mutate to see the mortality rate go up. My guess is that the increase is due to a lack of clean water, doctors, nurses, beds for patients, personal protective gear, and crews to dispose of the dead properly.

Spiralling out of control rapidly.
If we are seeing such a logarithmic uptick in cases, we need the same rapid increase in trained health care workers and supplies to take care of the sick, and that isn't happening.

a reply to: Olivine

If we are seeing such a logarithmic uptick in cases, we need the same rapid increase in trained health care workers and supplies to take care of the sick, and that isn't happening

Properly equipped and trained to use said equipment within a BSL-4 environment at that.

Is any help coming?

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

According to the presenters from today's panel, no.
In fact, yesterday, Liberian health care workers were on strike, because they don't have enough protective equipment.
The US pledged 3000 troops to build and operate ebola clinics, but so far we have sent 300.

There was one hopeful account of the disease response in Lofa County, Liberia. At it's peak, in the county they had 790 cases of ebola, but since then, the totals have been slowly going down. This is due to local mobilization of women's groups, training ebola task force crews how to dispose properly of the deceased, etc.
This was one of the hardest hit areas, but it is getting the outbreak under control, through education and training.

The videos from this morning's symposium and panel discussion are available here.

The 1st video has all of the presenters and runs over 3 hours. The second video is the panel question and answer session.

If you want to skip to the brutally honest talk given by Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, director at CIDRAP, skip forward to the 02:21:00 mark in the 1st video to begin at his introduction.

originally posted by: Olivine
The videos from this morning's symposium and panel discussion are available here.

The 1st video has all of the presenters and runs over 3 hours. The second video is the panel question and answer session.

If you want to skip to the brutally honest talk given by Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, director at CIDRAP, skip forward to the 02:21:00 mark in the 1st video to begin at his introduction.

Thank you!

a reply to: soficrow

Here is the last 4 minutes of his talk, concerning the possibility of airborne transmission. I did my best trying to transcribe it accurately. If anyone finds a mistake, please tell me.

originally posted by: Olivine

Here is my transcription (any inaccuracies are mine, taken from the 02:55:06 mark):
(Osterholm):
"Well, you know what? I was one of those people early on, explaining why HIV was never going to be a respiritory pathogen. Because we understood the physiology of the lung, we understood which cells the virus was in, and we understood that that was not going to be an issue.

That is different than this.

Number 1, we've had examples of sub-human primates, were transmission of ebola virus has occured via the respiritory issue tract. We had one, where pigs transmitted to sub-human primates. And it was interesting, because one of the bioinformatics people commented a lot on this said, " well, you see that's not a problem, because that is just from cleaning up the litter on the floor that did it."
Which is even worse, if they had thought through it. The virus was deposited on the floor and then re-aerosolized. Literally, that even makes it worse. Okay.

But I think the point being here, is that some people are concerned because we don't understand why that virus passed the 1st time, in the sub-human primates.

Today, I've been given permission, something I've known about for a few weeks, when I wrote the piece, I knew this, and it concerned me greatly.

Gary Kobinger and colleagues, at Winnipeg, the Canadian National Lab, actually took one of the strains from Guinea, and put it into macaques a little over a month and a half ago. What they saw was remarkable. It was unlike any of the ebola viruses they had seen in monkeys. It was much, much more severe. The pathology of the lungs was remarkable. And as Gary said, he is one of the most prominent ebola virologists in the world, "It is very worrisome to me, about what I saw there."

Maybe this is a different virus? Maybe there is that possibility, because that much virus in the lungs means maybe somebody might cough it up and maybe you might hit a cycle (I'm unclear on that last phrase).

Now, I'm not saying that here to scare people. Plan "B"? What the hell are we going to do if suddenly see the potential for transmission that could be respiratory in nature? Do we have a plan? I don't know if it is a 1 in a million chance, a 1 in 100,000 chance. The point of it is, if we can't talk about that, because someone says, "you're scaring people". And you know, the blowback has been substantial. You know, I guess I'm getting old because it doesn't me so much any more."

He concludes by saying he hopes someone has a plan B.

I know this was long, so thanks for reading.

a reply to: Olivine

Thanks Olivine - great stuff. I greatly respect Osterholm. ...Can't look for the reference right now but researchers said that as of August they observed a 3% genetic change in the Ebola circulating in Sierra Leone and Guinea - but did not know what characteristics those changes confer. Also, the virus has passed through thousands more human hosts since then, and will have accumulated a lot more mutations.

BlueAjah posted this on ikonoklast's big thread, describing the report as "chilling."

UN Report

“Ebola got a head start on us,” he said. “It is far ahead of us, it is running faster than us, and it is winning the race. If Ebola wins, we the peoples of the United Nations lose so very much…,” he said. “We either stop Ebola now or we face an entirely unprecedented situation for which we do not have a plan,” Mr. Banbury told the Council via video link from the operation’s headquarters in Ghana.

Also:
Ebola: The Executive Summary, 10/15

Ebola outbreak can be compared to bird flu disease, which came from birds to humans causing so many deaths. There were worries at the time that the flu, which was passed from birds to humans, could mutate, turning into a flu pandemic similar to the one at the end of World War I that killed between 20 and 40 million people globally in 1918-1919...
I hope this Ebola outbreak is lowered and we came to a safer side of humanity. Thank you.

a reply to: panickydickhead

Ebola's transmission in this epidemic has been exclusively human-to-human - while the big bird flu's don't transmit well to people and seldom transmit between people. So direct comparison does not hold.

But yes, Ebola is a zoonosis, and yes, zoonoses are one of the biggest disease threats we face in this new world we have created with all our synthetic chemicals, habitat destruction, and etc.

Just came across this,

m.thelocal.com...

A Paris-bound Air France was grounded in Madrid on Thursday after passenger fell ill. The sick man, who had just returned from Africa has been isolated while tests are carried out.

Air France have said passangers have disembarked 'normally', I wonder if that means they have been allowed to go in their separate directions?

U.N.'s $1 billion Ebola fund gets deposit of just $100,000 so far

A United Nations trust fund, seeking $1 billion to fight Ebola in West Africa, has received a deposit of just $100,000 nearly a month after it was set up to allow for rapid, flexible funding of the most urgent needs on the ground.

Erin Hohlfelder, policy director for global health for international campaign and advocacy group ONE, said the response to the U.N. appeal was "pretty disappointing" and that it was important to coordinate contributions so "we don't let aid resources go to waste." "We have enough speeches and enough rhetoric that it starts to feel the case is solved," she said. "We're really concerned that until those speeches and that rhetoric translate into real services on the ground, we're not doing much to ebb the flow of this crisis."

$100,000 in a month is pathetic in fact beyond pathetic and seems more like intentional.

3 days since my last post and the death toll is still on the rise with amount of cases now close to 9,200. (276 more cases since 14th Oct and 99 more deaths since Oct 14th). I got a feeling by this time next week there could 1,000 more deaths!

GENEVA (Reuters) - The death toll in the Ebola outbreak has risen to 4,546 out of 9,191 known cases in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday.

www.sun-sentinel.com...

This report doesn't sound too good:

Dr Jahrling explained that his team, who are working in the epicentre of the crisis in the Liberian capital of Monrovia, are seeing that the viral loads in Ebola patients are much higher than they are used to seeing.

He told Vox.com: 'We are using tests now that weren't using in the past, but there seems to be a belief that the virus load is higher in these patients [today] than what we have seen before. If true, that's a very different bug.

'I have a field team in Monrovia. They are running [tests]. They are telling me that viral loads are coming up very quickly and really high, higher than they are used to seeing.

'It may be that the virus burns hotter and quicker.'

www.dailymail.co.uk... annel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

So, already seeing mutations of the Viral loads are much higher than before.

How to stop this thing? If it can be stopped?

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

Also NOTE:

WHO is alarmed by media reports of suspected Ebola cases imported into new countries that are said, by government officials or ministries of health, to be discarded as “negative” within hours after the suspected case enters the country.

Such rapid determination of infection status is impossible, casting grave doubts on some of the official information that is being communicated to the public and the media.

Well, now its being reported that cases are going down already, in 'Liberia'. i don't know which reports to believe but if true, then it's good that the Communities are now being more responsible about their habits!

Restrictions on the movement of people, quarantining of communities and positive response to the frequent washing of hands and avoiding infested dead bodies have helped to reduce the infection rate of the Ebola virus throughout Liberia, according to Mr. James Dorbor Jallah, Deputy Incident Manager for support services at the Incident Management System.

Jallah said, "there are more than 300 ETUs that are empty, which means they are without people who are being treated for the virus." The latest report has also made it clear that decisions and recommendations approved by President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and implemented by the Liberian government have worked to reduce increased infection from the insidious disease

But Who are saying:

While these reports show a success story, the World Health Organization, (WHO) has indicated that there could be 10,000 infections weekly in the coming weeks in Liberia.

Still on caution:

"While we are encouraged by such a prospect, it does not mean we are free from the disease," Nyenswah said. "It is too early to determine why there are not many cases and we are investigating."

One of the Ebola Express planes (N163PA) is making a flight tomorrow morning from Cartersville, GA to Bermuda and then on to Dakar, Senegal. Probably on it's way to get more Ebola into the USA.

N163PA (GLF3) has just filed a flight plan. It is scheduled to depart from Cartersville (KVPC) at 02:00AM EDT Thursday heading for Bermuda Int'l (TXKF/BDA) for an estimated arrival at 05:27AM ADT.

Expected route: M326 BDA TXKF

flightaware.com...

N163PA (GLF3) has just filed a flight plan. It is scheduled to depart from Bermuda Int'l (TXKF/BDA) at 06:15AM ADT Thursday heading for Dakar (GOOY/DKR) for an estimated arrival at 03:33PM GMT.

Expected route: WINGZ 05000W 04000W R976 KILG3A

flightaware.com...

Official WHO Ebola toll near 5,000 with true number nearer 15,000

(Reuters) - At least 4,877 people have died in the world's worst recorded outbreak of Ebola, and at least 9,936 cases of the disease had been recorded as of Oct. 19, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday, but the true toll may be three times as much. The WHO has said real numbers of cases are believed to be much higher than reported: by a factor of 1.5 in Guinea, 2 in Sierra Leone and 2.5 in Liberia, while the death rate is thought to be about 70 percent of all cases. That would suggest a toll of almost 15,000.

Among the thousands of cases are 443 health care workers, 244 of whom have died. The WHO said it was undertaking extensive investigations to determine why so many had caught the disease. "Early indications are that a substantial proportion of infections occurred outside the context of Ebola treatment and care," it said.

A U.N. plan to stop the epidemic, known as 70-70-60, involves isolating at least 70 percent of cases and safely burying at least 70 percent of those who die by Dec. 1, a 60-day deadline from the start of the plan. That is supposed to rise to 100 percent by the 90-day deadline on Jan. 1. The number of isolation beds had increased substantially to 1,126 but remained only 25 percent of the 4,388 expected to be needed in 50 Ebola treatment units. There were also firm commitments from foreign medical teams to staff only 30 units. Without those beds in those units, families have to care for sick relatives at home and risk infection. The WHO also estimates 28 laboratories are needed in the three worst-hit countries, with 12 now in place, and 20,000 staff will be needed to keep track of people who have had contact with Ebola patients and may be at risk. The three worst-hit countries will also need 230 dead-body-management teams by Dec. 1, it said. They have 140.

It looks like they have a lot to do to get the 70-70-60 plan up and running.
And they may have to isolate the health care workers if

"Early indications are that a substantial proportion of infections occurred outside the context of Ebola treatment and care,"

turns out to be accurate.
If they do not solve the problem of why health care workers catch it and they are not getting a lot more firm commitments of foreign medical teams then the beds become useless.