Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

a reply to: 111moroz111

ok, thanks! What about the other case in 'Prague'? Was that confirmed?

originally posted by: TruthxIsxInxThexMist
a reply to: 111moroz111

ok, thanks! What about the other case in 'Prague'? Was that confirmed?

not yet

new live video

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a reply to: 111moroz111
Why are all the videos I saw - like five of them, only 30 seconds in length? R U serious?

I've updated the Ebola case range projections. A month had passed since I last calculated the ranges (as opposed to just adding reported cases). Not much has changed within the time frames I had been projecting for already, but you can see the new charts and a comparison here:

Updated Ebola Case Range Projection Charts

After seeing the way new Ebola cases have been handled in Dallas and Madrid, I also decided to do something I haven't done before. I projected out far enough to see how long it would take (at the current exponential rate of growth) to infect everyone susceptible to Ebola who is not isolated.



The charts above show what's at stake if the Ebola epidemic is not controlled and nothing slows the spread. There are those who will say this couldn't happen. I hope they are right. But the projections have been accurate for more than 2 months now, and I don't see much happening to change that. And since I first did the projections in early August, WHO, the CDC, and many epidemiologists have now released their own projections, and their projections basically matched mine.

I am no longer convinced Ebola will be controlled better outside Africa.

In the last week and a half, we have seen American authorities go in contaminated apartments and drive quarantined families in their family car, all with no protective gear, and then brag about still wearing the same shirt to a press conference and around their family. We've seen health authorities tell quarantined people they could go back to work as medical workers before the up to 21-day incubation period is up. We've seen unprotected workers power wash up Ebola vomit as people stand around watching, potentially breathing in aerosolized Ebola.

I have rarely seen such ignorance and stupidity. If we don't have more cases in Dallas and Madrid within 21 days, it will only be because of incredible luck or more than a few miracles.

Man with Ebola-like symptoms isolated outside Braintree, Mass hospital

A hazmat team was responding with the Department of Health to Harvard Vanguard Medical Associates in Braintree for a patient showing signs of illness Sunday.

www.wcvb.com...

a reply to: ikonoklast

....I am no longer convinced Ebola will be controlled better outside Africa.

In the last week and a half, we have seen American authorities go in contaminated apartments and drive quarantined families in their family car, all with no protective gear, and then brag about still wearing the same shirt to a press conference and around their family. We've seen health authorities tell quarantined people they could go back to work as medical workers before the up to 21-day incubation period is up. We've seen unprotected workers power wash up Ebola vomit as people stand around watching, potentially breathing in aerosolized Ebola.

Sadly.

Worst case scenario, we have til next September before the whole world is exposed/infected?

Have you read about 'Dengue' fever?

Its apparently sweeping across China, Malaysia and Japan.

While Ebola is getting all the headlines, China is dealing with “the worst outbreak in decades” of Dengue Fever. As ITAR-TASS reports, the outbreak of the mosquito-borne disease in China has killed six people and infected more than 27,200 according to Chinese health officials. Just today, the epidemic has infected 1,826 more people in the Guangdong Province alone. But it’s not just China, last month Malaysia reported that dengue fever deaths had more than tripled in 2014, while Japan recently saw its first outbreak in 70 years with many contracting the illness at Tokyo’s popular Yoyogi Park.

So, it seems another one to look out for.

What if 2 Diseases collide with eachother? What would that equal?

We are living in scary times indeed...

Watch out for those Mosquitos!!

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: ikonoklast
Worst case scenario, we have til next September before the whole world is exposed/infected?

If Ebola continues to spread at the higher end of the rate so far, the worst case predicted by current projections is that everyone who does not have immunity or is not isolated would be infected by August 5, 2015.

Hopefully something slows it and halts it and Ebola is relegated to humorous t-shirts that say, "I survived the Ebola pandemic!"

originally posted by: stirling
Maybe...but.....
Ebola and its relatives kill its hosts almost too fast to sustain a full fledged outbreak pandemic....

You realize that is thinking that developed back when it was a week's/year's trip to cross the globe. It doesn't take months to cross the ocean anymore.

Ebola does kill to fast to spread globally, in pre-industrial times, but of course we can cross the globe, anyone can cross the globe in an airplane, in as little as 24 hours, so no, it doesn't kill fast enough to limit the spread.

a reply to: boncho

...no, it doesn't kill fast enough to limit the spread

Certain "pundits" have been making that claim since the outbreak was first acknowledged back in March - before it became an epidemic. Thought they changed their tune, removed their heads from the sand. Guess not.

As ikonoklast shows, If Ebola continues to spread at the higher end of the rate so far, the worst case predicted by current projections is that everyone who does not have immunity or is not isolated would be infected by August 5, 2015.

There is a symposium going on right now, from Johns Hopkins University, discussing ebola. It began at 9 am EDT and is scheduled to go until 2:00 pm.
Link to WTOP web page that has live UStream.

Among the issues expected to be addressed are ways to improve the response to Ebola and possible treatments and vaccines.

It will be nice to hear from other health experts, instead of politicians. They are on a short break, but the presentations should resume shortly.

a reply to: soficrow

I believe this is the source for that:

The number of cases seemed to be doubling every 20 days, which led to the estimate that by January 2015 the number of cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone could grow to 1.4 million.[51] After January 2015 if that level of growth continued the number of cases could grow to 100 million by June 2015, 1 billion (1000 million) by August 2015, and to the rest of population before 2016.[51] For comparison there are about 1 billion people in all of Africa.[52]

Which leads us back to here:

Hypothetically speaking, if the Ebola outbreak continued to spread at that same pace, which it won’t, the number of cases would surpass 1 million by January, 100 million by June, and 1 billion by August, before infecting the entire world population sometime next fall.

www.businessweek.com...

Still frightening as fruitcakes.

The current speaker (I believe his name is Dr. Micheal T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota

Read more: www.politico.com... ).

He just said he feels we have a lot of "unexpecteds" to come. He and his team just reviewed over 900 papers on the transmission of ebola, and that today, he is certain he knows less now, then he did 6 months ago!!

His talk is about transmission.

Watch now

He recommends telling the public, "we don't know"...instead the current line of "it can't be transmitted, blah blah blah. He thinks the most recent communications to the public from authorites are from a place of hubris.

Refreshingly honest comments!


ETA: Here is a link to a paper he wrote September 30th for Politico

Thank you for posting about the live symposium. I wouldn't have known it was going on. in reply to: Olivine

The question and answer portion is beginning now. UStream direct link

The previous speaker, Dr. Micheal Osterholm, just concluded his talk with the following tidbits:

He was given permission to divulge the following, although he has known for a few weeks: (i'm paraphrasing)
Ebola researchers in Winnipeg took a sample of Ebola from Guinea six weeks ago and gave it to macques.
The strain was unlike anything they had ever seen and they are extremely worried.

Secondly, he says it is disingenuous for officials to say that this strain is not transmissible through the air. We just don't know for certain.

He went on to say that we are giving the fever symptom too much priority. He stated it is a fact that , a substantial percentage of people who die from ebola never showed a fever over 101.5 ° F.

Lastly, the virus is control right now--not us.

Sobering comments.

Please, I encourage all of you able to watch this to do so.

originally posted by: Olivine
The current speaker (I believe his name is Dr. Micheal T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota

Read more: www.politico.com... ).

He just said he feels we have a lot of "unexpecteds" to come. He and his team just reviewed over 900 papers on the transmission of ebola, and that today, he is certain he knows less now, then he did 6 months ago!!

His talk is about transmission.

Watch now

He recommends telling the public, "we don't know"...instead the current line of "it can't be transmitted, blah blah blah. He thinks the most recent communications to the public from authorites are from a place of hubris.

Refreshingly honest comments!

ETA: Here is a link to a paper he wrote September 30th for Politico

This needs a thread!

Great work, keep it up!

a reply to: Olivine

Thanks so much! ...I missed the broadcast, hoping for transcripts. If you start a thread on this, please U2U me with the link. Please!

Thanks, sofi

a reply to: soficrow

I'm hoping that transcripts or at minimum a youtube video become available soon. Soficrow, I'll definitely get the info to you when I find it.

My mind is completely blown hearing the thinking from the experts studying this disease. If we don't get this controlled in these west African countries within the next 6 months, the global population is in huge trouble. That's not hyperbole.

Thanks so much for making this thread available.

The UStream is still going...Q & A portion live.

This website was mentioned during the webcast - Ebola Communication Network. The site isn't loading for me now, but that is probably due to high traffic.

HC3 Launches Ebola Communication Network to House Ebola Resources and Tools HC3 = Health Communication Capacity Collaborative.

Published: October 10, 2014, 12:00 am

The Health Communication Capacity Collaborative (HC3) on Wednesday launched the Ebola Communication Network (ECN), an online collection of Ebola resources, materials and tools from and for the global health community.

As global health experts continue to grapple with the rapid spread of the Ebola virus in West Africa, HC3’s funding agency, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and other partners – the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), UNICEF and the World Health Organization (WHO) – asked HC3 to quickly develop an organized online portal to house Ebola-related social and behavior change communication (SBCC) materials, as well as other resources and tools.

“The Ebola Communication Network provides the global health community with a well-organized, curated collection of the most relevant documents, materials, tools and resources to help fight Ebola using social and behavior change communication,” said Susan Krenn, Director of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Center for Communication Programs (JHU∙CCP), where HC3 is based in Baltimore. “We know SBCC will play a key role in containing the Ebola virus because people need to know how to prevent it, how to recognize signs and symptoms, how to care for loved ones safely and how to seek health care.”

ECN (www.ebolacommunicationnetwork.org) is populated with more than 120 resources, including not only SBCC materials like posters, brochures and infographics, but also Demographic and Health Surveys of affected regions, customized maps and peer-reviewed journal articles. The site is responsive to mobile devices and optimized for low bandwidth situations. It includes an RSS feed of Ebola-related news that is updated in real time.

It’s easily searchable; ECN’s faceted search allows users to find materials based on language, type (e.g., public service announcements, posters, and fact sheets), topic (e.g., prevention, treatment, safe burial practices), audience (e.g., community health workers, governments, health care providers) and any other facets deemed necessary. Users can also upload their own materials, which are posted after a brief review process.

ECN continues to expand as new resources are added each day. Because it is built on an open-source platform, ECN can be enhanced with a host of new features as the crisis unfolds.