Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

A rant.

news.sl...


"It was advised to be considered that it might not be Malaria but it was Ebola."

really took that long to go from "It must be mallaria",, too ita EBOLA?

And she was a "Dr." Olivette Buck who was working in a ebola rich enviroment?

14th September 2014 Dead. R.I.P

1st September 2014 Blood test for Malaria,,and Ebola,, might have saved her life.

8th September"Hey lets check for Ebola",, one of the students said.

CAUSE IN AUG. THERE WAS A dead Ebola patient.!!!

Sorry just ranting,,its obvious these Dr.s are being overworked, in this case, too death.

Cause she was good enough too know that she should have gotten both blood works done,

on the 1st of Sept. remember dead Ebola guy,,last week.????

malaria AND EBOLA.


and as an after thought,, u know i bet she tested Positive for Malaria as well.

originally posted by: TruthxIsxInxThexMist
a reply to: ikonoklast

Thanks for the info. I see those projections of yours look pretty sharp. Pretty steady upto a point and then boom. August took a big hit, Sept is closing in already.

Meanwhile latest news:

Officials in Guinea say a team of health workers and journalists who were trying to raise awareness about Ebola may have been kidnapped.

The team of six went missing after being attacked on Tuesday in a village near the southern city of Nzerekore.

Meanwhile, President Francois Hollande says France is setting up a military hospital in Guinea as part of its contribution to tackle the disease.

More than 2,600 people have now died from the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

www.bbc.co.uk...

I think you'll need up date every day now as the cases are rising faster.

Those health workers were found murdered by angry villagers. There were 8 of them. Pretty raw stuff happening over there. Link

a reply to: BobAthome

Awful read, that they are being stigmatized for their efforts is horrible. I just cannot see how this can be contained at this point.

originally posted by: Vroomfondel
a reply to: clenz

The simple truth of the matter is the virus is airborne now. It always was. Just not in a form strong enough to infect anyone who inhales it. But, that could happen two minutes from now. The more it mutates the longer it learns to live outside the host. If you cant stop the mutation, you cant stop it from becoming airborne while virulent enough to infect people. Decades is out of the realm of possibility. Wishful thinking, but not going to happen that way.

could happen two minutes from now, could happen 20 years from now. Why is decades wishful thinking? This virus doesn't have an agenda, doesn't have a master plan to become airborne and destroy all humans. You really want this to happen don't you? It's kind of disturbing to read at this point.

Also, if this virus was truly airborne things would be far worse than they are.

It has no need to be airborne since most of us probably have next to zero immunity from it.
It only has to keep doing what it is doing at the moment and it will do just fine.
fully airborne will just reduce the time frame of the spread not the end result.

a reply to: 59demon

I just read about them being killed on the net, came here to post an update!

Wow, the villagers are saying that the outsiders bought the virus to guinea and are now murdering people who come to help. Unless they start to trust that this virus comes from animals and is passed from human to human by bodily fluids, this Pandemic will only grow more.

Ebola worst-case scenario said to project 550,000 infections

WASHINGTON — The Ebola outbreak in West Africa could spread to hundreds of thousands more people by the end of January, according to an estimate under development by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that puts one worst- case scenario at 550,000 or more infections.The report, scheduled to be released next week, was described by two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain anonymous because it isn't yet public. The projection, which vastly outstrips previous estimates, is under review by researchers and may change. It assumes no additional aid or intervention by governments and relief agencies, which are mobilizing to contain the Ebola outbreak before it spirals further out of control in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

I worked up a chart from the 21 days later thread. www.abovetopsecret.com...

And i had 549,504 for January the 30th so i take it the CDC are expecting a 3 week doubling to be the norm rather than the exception without additional aid or intervention.

The real question is how much additional aid or intervention will be needed?

originally posted by: clenz

originally posted by: Vroomfondel
a reply to: clenz

The simple truth of the matter is the virus is airborne now. It always was. Just not in a form strong enough to infect anyone who inhales it. But, that could happen two minutes from now. The more it mutates the longer it learns to live outside the host. If you cant stop the mutation, you cant stop it from becoming airborne while virulent enough to infect people. Decades is out of the realm of possibility. Wishful thinking, but not going to happen that way.

could happen two minutes from now, could happen 20 years from now. Why is decades wishful thinking? This virus doesn't have an agenda, doesn't have a master plan to become airborne and destroy all humans. You really want this to happen don't you? It's kind of disturbing to read at this point.

Also, if this virus was truly airborne things would be far worse than they are.

In no way shape or form do I want this to happen.

You are wrong about the virus not having an agenda. It wants to survive and propagate just like any other life form. And it wants to adapt to its surroundings to increase its chances of survival. It only takes one mutation to become virulent outside the host for long periods of time. It just has to be the right one. The likelihood that the virus will undergo decades of mutation without achieving the goal of living longer outside the host, which is all it takes to become airborne infectious, is very slim. Each generation learns to live longer than the last. In the past it killed its host before it could spread, causing mutation. It is obvious at this point that the disease is spreading faster each week. You can deny the fact that it will find the right combination sooner rather than later if you like. I choose not to. I do not hope for a virus to wipe out humanity. I want people to respect the idea that it can happen, right here, in our lifetime and do as much as they can to be prepared for it.

As for it being airborne now, everything is airborne. Fine particles of anything and everything are airborne, including this virus. Fortunately, most of what is floating around in the air is not virulent disease, or virulent enough to infect a new host. But like it or not, that will change.

originally posted by: joho99
It has no need to be airborne since most of us probably have next to zero immunity from it.
It only has to keep doing what it is doing at the moment and it will do just fine.
fully airborne will just reduce the time frame of the spread not the end result.

It doesn't need to be airborne, but that is the nature of evolution. Things become more efficient at what they do.

originally posted by: Vroomfondel

originally posted by: joho99
It has no need to be airborne since most of us probably have next to zero immunity from it.
It only has to keep doing what it is doing at the moment and it will do just fine.
fully airborne will just reduce the time frame of the spread not the end result.

It doesn't need to be airborne, but that is the nature of evolution. Things become more efficient at what they do.

But don't studies show that in many cases, as viruses become more efficient at transmitting, they become less efficient at killing?

Also I would some proof that the chances of it taking decades to go airborne are slim. According to Dr. Estrella Lasry from MSF (doctors without borders), she see's no reason why it would become airborne due to the fact it lives in body fluids, and not on dry surfaces due to it's lipid membrane. So aside from people saying "it could become airborne, because mutations." I trust what MSF says so I still don't fear this virus making a huge jump to becoming airborne. She even goes so far to say that this isn't comparable to something like the black plague. Her AMA is actually a pretty good read, if you haven't read it yet, here it is: www.reddit.com...

As for the agenda part, what I meant by that is that the virus isn't plotting for a way to become airborne and wipe us out, it isn't scheming to find the quickest and most efficient route to make the jump, it just simply exists and wants to survive.

a reply to: clenz

I don't know if there is a correlation between efficiency of transmission vs killing. I know in the past the reason ebola didn't become a bigger issue was because of how fast it killed. People didn't live long enough to spread it very far. Now with more people living close together and travel happening faster than ever we overcame that barrier for it.

There is credit due to the statements made by Lasry, but there is also something nagging me in the back of my mind about the fears of H1N1 and H5N1 going airborne. Those require direct contact to infect also, but the real threat was in the possibility that it could become airborne. I know the media has a way of putting us on the brink of destruction just before the news every night and I ignore that for the most part. But there is something about this that wont sit down and be quiet for me.

I respect your opinion, but there is a part of this that wont behave. The only was I can reason through that feeling is to consider the airborne aspect. Then it resolves evenly. I do hope its wrong though. Humanity has enough problems already.

The numbers tell the story - looks like Liberia's mass quarantine made the epidemic worse and triggered the current exponential spread. ....So Sierra Leone just instituted another quarantine this weekend, against experts' advice.

Ebola Outbreak: 6,800 New Cases Predicted This Month

New Ebola cases could reach 6,800 in West Africa by the end of the month, according to a recent study.

Researchers from Arizona State and Harvard universities discovered through modeling analysis that the rate of rise in cases significantly increased last month in Liberia and Guinea, around the time that a mass quarantine was put in place. This finding indicates that the mass quarantine may have made the outbreak worse than it would have been otherwise.

T emporal Variations in the Effective Reproduction Number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola Outbreak

……If effective control measures are not put in place, and the current rate of exponential rise of new cases continues, we predict 4400 new Ebola cases in West Africa during the last half of the month of September, with an upper 95% confidence level of 6800 new cases.

…..The temporal patterns we observe may thus partly be due to variations in surveillance during the outbreak, under-reporting, and/or reporting delays. In addition, serial passage of the disease as the outbreak progresses may be leading to increased pathogenicity, and a subsequent increasingly larger rate of increase in case counts . However, it also must be considered that otherwise well intentioned attempts at intervention may in fact be making the situation worse, at least in some regions….

…….Our analysis indicates that the spread of the disease to densely populated cities, and/or the imposition of cordons sanitaire (quarantine) in West Africa may have accelerated the spread of the disease in some regions.

How do they know that everyone that is sick actually has Ebola?

If someone is sick and they 'assume' they have Ebola and put them in a hospital with other Ebola patients, don't they risk getting Ebola if they haven't got it so far?

How do they know that the people who have died have died of Ebola if every single one has not been tested?

How long do the results for an Ebola test take to come through?

Is there a 'standard' Ebola test?

Is it possible to have a false positive or a false negative?


Since there appears to be no 'openess' or even accurate knowledge as to the true figures of this illness...........how can we be sure that what we are told is even approaching any form of accuracy.

Near the beginning of this thread (I think it was this thread) I remember saying something along the lines that I wouldn't be surprised if someone pulled a 'vaccine' out of their armpit by next week..

Well, well......................who'd have thought it!?

Anew report today suggests 500,000 could be affected by end Jan.

Ebola Outbreak: CDC Estimates As Many As 500,000 Ebola Cases By End Of January

The CDC estimate, due to be released this week, is based on “dynamic modeling” and assumes no additional aid to help battle the disease, a person familiar with the report told the Washington Post.

United Nations officials say now that the outbreak has moved from rural to urban areas, the number of cases is doubling in about three weeks.

Laurie Garrett of the Council on Foreign Relations estimates there probably will be 250,000 cases by Christmas without intervention.


Well, if estimates are correct by end December, we could looking at 250,000. A big leap from the 5,367 cases so far.

www.ibtimes.com...

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

Good catch.

Doesn't look good. The latest WHO report predicts Ebola could become endemic in the region, "spreading as routinely as malaria or the flu.

Could the Ebola Outbreak Last Forever?

originally posted by: TruthxIsxInxThexMist
Anew report today suggests 500,000 could be affected by end Jan.

Ebola Outbreak: CDC Estimates As Many As 500,000 Ebola Cases By End Of January

The CDC estimate, due to be released this week, is based on “dynamic modeling” and assumes no additional aid to help battle the disease, a person familiar with the report told the Washington Post.

United Nations officials say now that the outbreak has moved from rural to urban areas, the number of cases is doubling in about three weeks.

Laurie Garrett of the Council on Foreign Relations estimates there probably will be 250,000 cases by Christmas without intervention.


Well, if estimates are correct by end December, we could looking at 250,000. A big leap from the 5,367 cases so far.

www.ibtimes.com...

I did see this report about 500,000 by the end of January but now in a USA Today article, they state the CDC is approximating around 1.4 million to be infected by the end of January! For Liberia and Sierra Leone - does that mean the number could be higher than that if including other countries?

Also, the USA Today logo is a biohazard sign that has been changed from their standard logo. It is clickable and leads to a story about bio lab dangers. Thought this was rather odd.

1.4 million cases

a reply to: CINY8

It is a worst case scenario if they did nothing and more a argument to do something.

If we had 1.4 million infected at the end of January then something is very wrong.

a reply to: joho99

The 1.4million is assuming two things, complete lack of additional support AND recalculated counts of under/missing reports.

a reply to: clenz

Yes, joho99 is right - it's a worst case scenario and argument FOR additional support. You're right too - the 500,000 to 1.4 million end-January projection assumes no additional support, and also, recalculates under/missing case counts.

Any which way, it pretty much sucks.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: clenz

Yes, joho99 is right - it's a worst case scenario and argument FOR additional support. You're right too - the 500,000 to 1.4 million end-January projection assumes no additional support, and also, recalculates under/missing case counts.

Any which way, it pretty much sucks.

Agreed, it sucks. Hopefully though we can do something to fix those numbers.