Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

Ebola joins diseases like bird flu and MERS flagged for their pandemic potential. The most recent outbreak in Guinea has already killed 70 people. Ebola takes anywhere between 2 and 21 days to incubate, and has been found in the semen of an infected man 61 days after symptoms first appeared. ...Gives a whole new meaning to STD, doesn't it?

Ebola epidemic could become global crisis, experts warn

Ebola, one of the world's most deadly viruses, has spread from a remote forested corner of southern Guinea to the country's seaside capital, raising fears that the disease, which causes severe bleeding and almost always death, could spread far beyond this tiny West African nation's borders.

In the first outbreak of its kind Guinea, Ebola already has killed at least 70 people including one man whose family brought him to Conakry, the capital, for medical treatment. Now six of his relatives and two others exposed to him are being kept in isolation at a hospital.

Health officials warn that the arrival of Ebola in this sprawling city of some 2 million people with an international airport could spell disaster. Among the poorest countries in the world, Guinea has severely limited medical facilities and a large population living in slums where the virus could spread quickly.

Ebola: Key facts

The Ebola virus causes Ebola virus disease (EVD; formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever) in humans.
EVD outbreaks have a case fatality rate of up to 90%.
EVD outbreaks occur primarily in remote villages in Central and West Africa, near tropical rainforests.
The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals and spreads in the human population through human-to-human transmission.
Fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family are considered to be the natural host of the Ebola virus.
No specific treatment or vaccine is available for use in people or animals.

People are infectious as long as their blood and secretions contain the virus. Ebola virus was isolated from semen 61 days after onset of illness in a man who was infected in a laboratory.

The incubation period, that is, the time interval from infection with the virus to onset of symptoms, is 2 to 21 days.

Maybe...but.....
Ebola and its relatives kill its hosts almost too fast to sustain a full fledged outbreak pandemic....
The thing goes global and there will be some germ warfare outfit that's behind it....

it's not clear that the disease is spreading person-to-person.
Yet.
Ebola Epidemic Could Become Global Crisis

..did i miss something back there?

and a large population living in slums where the virus could spread quickly.

The thing goes global and there will be some germ warfare outfit that's behind it

it almost writes itself..

reply to post by UNIT76


Edited for accuracy.

It didn't need bioterrorism to spread though - but maybe it was nudged.

It's a very big worry that infections could spread out of Guinea because they don't practice modern barrier methods of nursing. If you put an infected person on a plane, they could bring the infection to other parts of the world, yes, but in order to create a widespread and sustained pandemic, it would need to stop killing as quickly as it does and become transmissible through something other than direct person-to-person fluid contact. Most new infections are in health care workers and relatives who touch the recently deceased.

Nothing says it can't mutate, but it's never done so and is under no especial pressure to have to do so.

I think the other poster nailed it. If this thing becomes a global killer, it's because someone has tampered with it. Otherwise, I think it would be too easy for outbreaks to be contained in most modern countries. They would be very scary, but containable.

reply to post by ketsuko


Containable unless tampered with? ...Not so sure.

People are infectious as long as their blood and secretions contain the virus. Ebola virus was isolated from semen 61 days after onset of illness in a man who was infected in a laboratory.

The incubation period, that is, the time interval from infection with the virus to onset of symptoms, is 2 to 21 days.

reply to post by soficrow


You're still not talking about something that spreads quite as easily as a cold. Most people who catch it don't make it for 21 days before exhibiting symptoms, the average is two to six days. And by the time you get sick, you aren't going anywhere to infect anyone because it puts you down so fast.

I'm not downplaying this, it's absolutely a danger, not something you want coming to your town, but I just don't see it becoming a global pandemic as it is.

In my mind, a disease with pandemic potential is a special balance. Ebola is definitely lethal enough, but I think it's just a shade too efficient at what it does.

Black Pox anyone?


www.rense.com...
Admittedly not the best source one could hope for but it wouldn't surprise me at all.


Good old cold war ingenuity. Ebola-Pox

"Russia has researched the genetic alteration of smallpox," Alibek told me. "In 1990 and 1991, we engineered a smallpox at Vector. It was found that several areas of the smallpox genome" -- the DNA -- "can be used for the introduction of some foreign genetic material. The first development was smallpox and VEE. VEE, or Venezuelan equine encephalitis, is a brain virus. It causes a severe headache and near-coma, but it is generally not lethal. Alibek said that the researchers spliced VEE into smallpox. The result was a recombinant chimera virus. In ancient Greek myth, the chimera was a monster made from parts of different animals. Recombination means the mixing of genes from different organisms. "It is called smallpox-VEE chimera," Alibek said. It could also be called Veepox. Under a microscope, Alibek said, the Veepox looks like smallpox, but it isn't.

More recently, Alibek claims, the Vector researchers may have created a recombinant Ebola-smallpox chimera. One could call it Ebolapox. Ebola virus uses the molecule RNA for its genetic code, whereas smallpox uses DNA. Alibek believes that the Russian researchers made a DNA copy of the disease-causing parts of Ebola, then grafted them into smallpox. Alibek said he thinks that the Ebolapox virus is stable -- that is, that it will replicate successfully in a test tube or in animals -- which means that, once created, Ebolapox will live forever in a laboratory, and will not uncreate itself. Thus a new form of life may have been brought into the world.

imho - the factor obstructing Ebola's pandemic potential is the fact that it's not airborne (yet) - seems it requires direct contact with bodily fluids to spread. ...also, even if the infection rate were 100% (which it's not), it does not kill everyone rapidly. All it takes is one carrier.

Ebola then spreads in the community through human-to-human transmission, with infection resulting from direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and indirect contact with environments contaminated with such fluids.

reply to post by watchitburn


Charming.

One of those 'my hubris is bigger than your hubris' situations was it?

reply to post by soficrow

S&F
The virus is now in Liberia.

MONROVIA (Reuters) - The World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Sunday that Liberia has confirmed two cases of the deadly Ebola virus that is suspected to have killed at least 70 people in Guinea.

wtaq.com...
also: www.reuters.com...

The strain suspected in the Guinea outbreak is called Zaire ebolavirus, which is the most lethal strain. It was last detected in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2009... The latest outbreak, which has spread to Guinea’s capital and may have crossed the border into at least one of its neighboring countries. This suggests that it is spreading because of human contact, or the movement of dead bodies that are infected with the virus, Ian Lipkin, the John Snow Professor of Epidemiology at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health told National Geographic.

www.boston.com...

reply to post by stirling


To date no one has been able to synthetize a viable transmission agent for viral life forms. short of isolating someone, strapping them down and injecting a sample of the virus into the blood stream it would be very nearly impossible to weaponise ebola.

Its possible that at some stage the virus will mutate and become airborne, but what you gain with one mutation you typically loose with another. And an Airborne, and still lethal to humans, variant of Ebola would not be an effective weapon due to blow back and the sheer insanity of it. Until and unless you have a vaccine.

There was an instance of an airborne Ebola variant in the nineties but the variant in becoming airborne, lost it's lethality for humans. (The monkey house outbreak in Reston, Washington)

First step for developing a viral agent as a weapon is to produce an effective vaccine so that your own people could be made immune to it, but the nature of virus forms and their ability to mutate, makes them tricky to create effective vaccines.

Also, Ebola and it's cousins, like Marburg and other retro viral forms, while quite horrible, simply don't kill quick enough to be economically viable candidates for weaponizing.

If you are looking for viable and realistic candidates for synthesized germ weapons, look elsewhere.

If you want to know more about the likely possibilities around the potential for Ebola outbreaks becoming world wide events, I'd recommend 'The Hot Zone' a true story about the Ebola outbreak that lead to the events at the monkey house in Reston. (this factual book was the inspiration for the movie 'outbreak')

The Hot Zone

In the tragic case of An "evolved" or engineered virus form body fluids from person to person or fomite, to being aerosolized, guess it's good timing(or uh an appropriate time) to be researching graves of the Black Death victims.

Some scientists already worry that Ebola could mutate and become airborne. Recent outbreaks have suggested it can evolve on its own. All the Ebola subtypes have shown the ability to be spread through airborne particles under research conditions. One strand, Ebola-Reston, may have been transmitted from monkey to monkey through the air in a Virginia science lab. So far there have been no similar transmissions involving humans.Source

To confirm the study findings, the researchers genetically engineered a hybrid of HIV and Ebola, and a hybrid of HIV and the Tsg101 protein.
Both engineered viruses were able to infect new cells, they said.Source

It has to be viable in climates other than tropical, as it's said to not survive in cooler climates.
So, about three to ten days survivability outside of the body/host it's speculated by various sources?

EPIDEMIOLOGY: Occurs mainly in areas surrounding rain forests in central Africa (6) with the exception of Reston which occurs in the Phillipines (9). Source

Western World Outbreak- Quarantine facilities(and or makeshift such as tents and portables) would have to be set up to contain victims during the incubation period and increased awareness to protective measures during physical contact with others. Mirroring a zombie scenario.

INCUBATION PERIOD: Two to 21 days, more often 4 – 9 days (1, 13, 14). COMMUNICABILITY: Communicable as long as blood, secretions, organs, or semen contain the virus. Ebola virus has been isolated from semen 61 days after the onset of illness, and transmission through semen has occurred 7 weeks after clinical recovery (1, 2). Source

reply to post by drwill


EXCELLENT stuff. Thank you, S& ...US authorities are dismissing the pandemic danger - how much of that is panic-prevention damage control?

More from your sources:

Eleven deaths in towns in northern Sierra Leone and Liberia, which shares borders with southeastern Guinea where the outbreak was first reported, are suspected to be linked to Ebola.

WHO said that as of March 29, seven clinical samples from adult patients from Foya district in Liberia were tested.

"Two of those samples have tested positive for the ebolavirus," the global health organization said in the statement on its website on Sunday, confirming for the first time the cases in country.

"There have been 2 deaths among the suspected cases; a 35 year old woman who died on 21 March tested positive for ebolavirus while a male patient who died on 27 March tested negative," it said.

The latest outbreak is unusual. It seems to be spreading faster and farther than normal.

As rare as an Ebola outbreak is, when it does occur, the cases are typically contained in the jungle or rural region. The latest outbreak, which has spread to Guinea’s capital and may have crossed the border into at least one of its neighboring countries. This suggests that it is spreading because of human contact, or the movement of dead bodies that are infected with the virus...

reply to post by redshoes

Its possible that at some stage the virus will mutate and become airborne, but what you gain with one mutation you typically loose with another. And an Airborne, and still lethal to humans, variant of Ebola would not be an effective weapon due to blow back and the sheer insanity of it. Until and unless you have a vaccine.

There was an instance of an airborne Ebola variant in the nineties but the variant in becoming airborne, lost it's lethality for humans. (The monkey house outbreak in Reston, Washington)
- See more at: www.abovetopsecret.com...

Important info, that.

S&

reply to post by dreamingawake


Your source is better than mine - and I didn't have the info that transmission through semen has occurred 7 weeks after clinical recovery. Here's hoping Ebola loses virulence when it goes airborne.

INCUBATION PERIOD: Two to 21 days, more often 4 – 9 days (1, 13, 14). COMMUNICABILITY: Communicable as long as blood, secretions, organs, or semen contain the virus. Ebola virus has been isolated from semen 61 days after the onset of illness, and transmission through semen has occurred 7 weeks after clinical recovery (1, 2). Source

PS. I'm reconsidering my stance against vaccines, and wondering how many other people will stay anti-vaccine with this one - given the 90% fatality rate and the fact there really are no alternatives.

reply to post by UNIT76


Good catch btw. My apologies - I mis-spoke. Was thinking "airborne" but wrote "person-to-person."

S&

The death toll is now 78, and the Economic Community of West African States is asking for international help.

Guinea President Calls for Calm as Ebola Death Toll Rises to 78

...A total of 122 suspected cases of the virus were recorded from January to March 29, according to Sakoba Keita, head of the epidemics prevention division at the country’s health ministry.

The towns of Gueckedou and Macenta are hardest hit to date, with 55 and 14 deaths, respectively. There have been no deaths among 11 suspected cases in the capital, Conakry.

...The Economic Community of West African States has expressed “deep concern” over the outbreak and has asked for international help in combating the “serious threat” it poses to regional security.

Most of the really scary dangerous viruses in the world are not easiest to catch or spread.

UPDATE

Liberia confirmed 2 cases; Sierra Leone says NO Ebola in that country; Senegal closes its borders on Guinea; Doctors without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)) say Guinea is in big trouble after 8 cases confirmed in the capital.

Liberia confirms first Ebola cases

Liberia has confirmed two cases of the deadly Ebola virus that is suspected to have killed at least 78 people in neighbouring Guinea, according to the World Health Organization.

The WHO said in a statement released on Sunday the cases were among seven samples tested from the northern Foya district, which shares a border with southern Guinea.

Sierra Leone News: “No Ebola Virus in Sierra Leone” Health Minister assures

Director of Disease Control and Prevention in the Ministry of Health and Sanitation, Dr. Umaru Jambai dismissed rumours about Ebola cases in Kambia, Kono and other parts of the country as untrue. He confirmed that all suspected cases have been tested negative so far by a professional medical team. He observed that the best thing to do in a time of emergency is to share the right information so that the issue will be addressed adequately and accordingly.

Guinea: Mobilisation against an unprecedented Ebola epidemic

Conakry / Brussels / Geneva, 31 March 2014 – With eight confirmed cases of Ebola reported in the capital Conakry, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is facing an unprecedented epidemic in terms of the distribution of cases now scattered in several locations in Guinea.

“We are facing an epidemic of a magnitude never before seen in terms of the distribution of cases in the country: Gueckedou, Macenta Kissidougou, Nzerekore, and now Conakry,” said Mariano Lugli, coordinator of MSF's project in Conakry.