Major Stock Market Crash In January

Bassago
reply to post by UnmitigatedDisaster

 

Gold and the like are only valuable because people say they are; in a market crash I don't see those holdings fairing any better. Likewise you can't eat it, or do anything practical with it in physical form as a normal person - so it doesn't seem like a logical bartering currency.

Gold has held an intrinsic value throughout the past millennium, through thick and thin. I believe it will continue that trend. Granted you can't eat it but when you show up at a farm after the collapse it's probable that this would be accepted as a form of barter, along with other goods and manual labor.

Even after a collapse of this magnitude we will still have levels of poverty. There will be those not on the lowest rung that will want something besides your labor or other trade items.

Edit - Also those invested in precious metals ETF's are going to be in for a shock when they become as worthless as the paper they're printed on.

edit on 917pm2020pm32013 by Bassago because: (no reason given)

True enough - and I agree, having investments in precious metals is not going to help you. Sell that now or soon, when the market is right for your ROI. If you feel the need to own it, then own it physically.

That's a valid point that gold has held value throughout the ages, but at various points it's been less valuable than things like pepper and even nutmeg. Then again, those were also valuable simply due to rarity...so I guess the point remains - it's value is as much in it's rarity as its modern conducer properties.

Thanks!

UnmitigatedDisaster

Bassago
reply to post by UnmitigatedDisaster

 

Gold and the like are only valuable because people say they are; in a market crash I don't see those holdings fairing any better. Likewise you can't eat it, or do anything practical with it in physical form as a normal person - so it doesn't seem like a logical bartering currency.

Gold has held an intrinsic value throughout the past millennium, through thick and thin. I believe it will continue that trend. Granted you can't eat it but when you show up at a farm after the collapse it's probable that this would be accepted as a form of barter, along with other goods and manual labor.

Even after a collapse of this magnitude we will still have levels of poverty. There will be those not on the lowest rung that will want something besides your labor or other trade items.

Edit - Also those invested in precious metals ETF's are going to be in for a shock when they become as worthless as the paper they're printed on.

edit on 917pm2020pm32013 by Bassago because: (no reason given)

True enough - and I agree, having investments in precious metals is not going to help you. Sell that now or soon, when the market is right for your ROI. If you feel the need to own it, then own it physically.

That's a valid point that gold has held value throughout the ages, but at various points it's been less valuable than things like pepper and even nutmeg. Then again, those were also valuable simply due to rarity...so I guess the point remains - it's value is as much in it's rarity as its modern conducer properties.

Thanks!

first thing is first. invest in land out in the sticks, food, and water. once that is covered then invest in gold and silver. gold and silver is kind of the overflow fund for me.

once things get back to normal, 5,10,20 years after the crash, gold and silver will have value again.

I remember back in 2011 and last year too bunch of a-holes were saying the market is due for a correction! FLASH CRASH ALERT! SELL EVERYTHING! And all this other fear mongering bull crap. There are two fundamentals in the market right now: fed policy and corporate earnings. Neither of which are changing. Until they do, no crash is will occur.

ETA: I'm an investor/trader in the market.

reply to post by iSeeKEnlightenment8o5


I stated in the original post that with the Fed's QE going at it's current rate I could not see how a correction could occur. That companies have some earnings is simply a given. You seem to be stating that there is nothing outside of those two fundamentals that can impact the markets. Doubtful IMO but it would need to be big.

Nobody said "Sell Now!" and many of us are or have been investors/traders. Are you saying you are a professional trader? If so do you not acknowledge there is a very large bubble in the stock market?

reply to post by Dianec


Yes people are really going to suffer when the dollar bubble bursts in the near future. Bottom line if you are hard working and willing to do work others will not you will survive.



Back during the last depression people were very hard working and all around better people. Today people demand handouts and feel they deserve more. I actually feel sorry for them, because if something does happen and I believe it will they will have a very hard time.



I will say it again if you make under 12 dollars an hour you had better learn what inflation is if you don't already know.

For those saying the world would be hit for a while, then currencies will bounce back and things would move forward remember one thing:

Money = Power

If the USD collapses, the whole global economy will follow suit; leaving all governments without Money.

If money is removed from the algebraic equation you are left with what?

Power = Power

This event would leave all nations with only their Power (military strength) to determine the right to mold the future "global currency" in their own image and for the benefit of their own people.

What do you get when the most Powerful military (Nation with the most Power) is also the cause of the first failed currency (USA), and inaction on the part of other Nations would result in history "repeating" itself?

Answer: WW3

When money is removed, the Powerful Nation willing to act first in the aftermath; will gain the right to design the future economic system in their image. Nations like China and Russia know this and have been planning for this eventual event for quite some time. Who is willing to "push the red button" first in order to gain the true Power (Money/Global Currency)? Nations that are based on Christian values, without sufficient nuclear civilian bunkers? Or nations that worship the state, that have been building civilian nuclear bunker for several years?

We'll see soon enough I'm afraid.

The last depression occurred before the nuclear age, before Nations had enough nukes to wipe all life off the face of the planet 40 times over, before the USD became the Global Currency all nations are dependent on, before all other nations saw our dirty laundry aired out for all to see (QE, fiat currency negligence); and witnessed first hand our failed attempt at economic sustainability, and for the most part only effected US citizens.

The last depression is an apple, this is an orange.


God Bless,

reply to post by ElohimJD


Nicely put.

The next collapse could easily end in nuclear war and the possible (near) extinction of life on this planet. Except for those in the bunkers. They'll have to come out eventually though, to what ever is left.

beezzer
Look at the bond market.

When interest rates start climbing, jump on the bond market and get out of the stock market.

My 2 cents.

]]

When interest rates start climbing, get out of the bond market and get out of some of the stock market.

Aazadan
As for where the money goes, it doesn't actually vanish, instead it just buys a lot less while someone elses money buys a lot more. This is the reason the US has pushed fracking so hard. The goal is to become energy independent by 2020, we're already a net exporter.

No, the USA is not a net exporter of fossil fuel or petroleum products. It may be a net exporter of refined products, but there are still large crude petroleum imports.

This is because the main bottleneck in a global financial crisis is the price of oil, if your nation can supply all of it's own oil to transport goods, you have a massive advantage over the rest of the world when the whole thing finally does collapse.

No, it doens't work like that. Oil is fungible and transportable, and thus the price of oil-derived fuel before taxes (true economic cost) is pretty close to the same everywhere. Pumping your own oil (which will only last for a short time more in the USA) sends less money overseas, but that's a less significant effect.

Nat-gas on the other hand is not a global commodity. If the USA were to transition a large fraction of transportation to nat-gas then the advantages would flow.

ElohimJD
For those saying the world would be hit for a while, then currencies will bounce back and things would move forward remember one thing:

Money = Power

If the USD collapses, the whole global economy will follow suit; leaving all governments without Money.

If money is removed from the algebraic equation you are left with what?

Power = Power

This event would leave all nations with only their Power (military strength) to determine the right to mold the future "global currency" in their own image and for the benefit of their own people.

What do you get when the most Powerful military (Nation with the most Power) is also the cause of the first failed currency (USA), and inaction on the part of other Nations would result in history "repeating" itself?

You're talking about the pound sterling of the United Kingdom of Britain and Northern Ireland, correct? Because that used to be the global currency connected with the most powerful military nation. And it took the impovershment of WW2 and the collapse of its colonial empire to remove it from the top spot. And still the UK pound is a very frequently traded currency and London remains an essential center of finance.

First "failed currency"? For a failed currency the dollar is doing quite well. There's a difference between "the dollar" and "a dollar". "the dollar" will continue to be used in common finance for decades more, there will be no sudden "crash" because there aren't significant alternatives. Obviously the Chinese currency will eventually take its place with the dollar and euro as Chinese control over their financial system is loosened, and some dollar-based finance in Asia will switch to RMB.

No doomer porn.

reply to post by Bassago


Okay I responded with what I said because of your title and what the article is saying. IMO this is all fear mongering. We are not in the 1920s. Those were different times. Things are different. And yeah people were saying sell now, maybe not on here but they were definitely saying it elsewhere.

Now with respect to what you said about what I was stating, yes, I am saying that outside of those two fundamentals there is nothing that would cause a "crash" like stated in your title and the article. But a correction, there a few things that would cause that. A war for example. But it would be an opportunity. A crash and a correction are two very different things in the market. And I'm not a professional trader, but I am a successful one. And about a bubble, well I gotta be honest, I don't see this as a bubble. But I do wonder where we would be without the fed policy.

Uh doubtful OP. Obama won't let the stock market crash till 2016.

reply to post by Bassago
An elderly man once explained the economy and stock market with a simple analogy. Considered it a roller coaster, with a long track. The cars have climbed a little hill and rolled down the other side, and keep on doing it. You never realize that you never go down to the level you started the hill climbing.The thrill occurs at the last hill, when you realize just how high off the ground, you really are. Then, the sharp curve and drop, and there is no way out or off. Everyone is along for the ride, unless they jump out of the cars.

Snarl
As a firm believer in trend analysis, I must say I am impressed with the chart in your OP.

I remember my economics professor explaining that the rich aren't rich while the value of stocks are rising ... they're truly rich after a crash. I wish I had the retention to explain the whole theory, but it sure made sense the way it was explained.

If there's a correction, let's hope it's an applied value or currency standard change. The way economic policy has been handled during the last two presidencies ... SMH. If our economy collapses we're taking most of the world along for the ride.

A family friend died suddenly, in 1960. The lawyers and accountants told his wife, they were millionaires three times over. She said, they were not, it was all paper. She could not walk into her bank and withdraw a million dollars cash. It wasn't there! Always remembered her definition. There is paper wealth, what accountants and lawyers use to prove your "value." Then, there is real money, how much cash can you take out of your account or have hidden in the mattress.

Snarl
As a firm believer in trend analysis, I must say I am impressed with the chart in your OP.

I remember my economics professor explaining that the rich aren't rich while the value of stocks are rising ... they're truly rich after a crash. I wish I had the retention to explain the whole theory, but it sure made sense the way it was explained.

If there's a correction, let's hope it's an applied value or currency standard change. The way economic policy has been handled during the last two presidencies ... SMH. If our economy collapses we're taking most of the world along for the ride.

Maybe he was talking about the way many of the elite get rich is by crashing the market and purchasing
the now seemingly worthless stocks for pennies on the dollar!
If this is not what he was talking about then I don't have a clue what else it could be!
I suspect this is not true of everyone cause many investors in the crash of 29 took the
high dive into a concrete pool!

Now, for some thought. Read the newspapers in the spring and summer of 1929. Same attitude about the market crashing or correcting. The successful or wantabe successful called the doom sayers names, and said they knew nothing about the market. Funny, by the next spring, the successful were trying their hand at selling apples and pencils on the sidewalks. The swan dives were more hyperbola then real, and the suffering was not shared. Try reading Stud Terkel's oral history of the Depression for the memories of people from that era.

Brandyjack
A family friend died suddenly, in 1960. The lawyers and accountants told his wife, they were millionaires three times over. She said, they were not, it was all paper. She could not walk into her bank and withdraw a million dollars cash. It wasn't there! Always remembered her definition. There is paper wealth, what accountants and lawyers use to prove your "value." Then, there is real money, how much cash can you take out of your account or have hidden in the mattress.

That's very accurate.

I would draw everyone's attention back to a warning issued by Nancy-Pants Pelosi when the stock market took a dive as Dubyah was taking over as POTUS (Commodity Futures Trading Act).

Far too many people understand exactly what the stock market is and what it does. If you're 'gambling' in the stock market ... you're doing it wrong. The stock market is all about portfolios. It's about preservation of a certain percentage of wealth. He who is in a position to preserve a greater percentage possesses one of the keys to the kingdom. Those who see the stock market for what it is are the ones who come out ahead in a correction or a crash. There is an almost indiscernible line between being rich and wealthy. The rich have money stashed in mattresses. The wealthy don't waste their time collecting paper.

Even fewer understand how a country's economy really works and why there isn't a larger supply of physical currency in continuous circulation. JFK tried to 'fix' this ... and look where it got him. You have to understand the definition of 'value' and the meaning of 'control.' He who has control ultimately assigns value. Does anyone think the POTUS (one man!!) could be trusted with control? Control is earned ... not taken. Put your little hand out there and try to grab and you won't get burned ... you'll draw back a nub.

I somehow doubt this material is still taught at university. The dumbing-down was apparent even when I attended back in the '80s. The layman's understanding a' la Zeitgeist et al. is a ridiculous continuance allowed by TPTB of the economic kingdom.

Bottom Line: We're all in this together. We're gonna be carried by the flow. Prepping for a collapse isn't possible. Talking about it will get you neither out of the frying pan nor out of the fire.

Apologies ... addressing this subject always puts me in a mood.

Don't worry! Obamas got the solution... Blame bush again. Lol

reply to post by Snarl

There is an almost indiscernible line between being rich and wealthy. The rich have money stashed in mattresses. The wealthy don't waste their time collecting paper.

That is completely true. The supposedly "rich" people may find themselves poor in a hurry if we ever have hyperinflation. Those of wealth and power may take a hit but will still remain on top. The poor, well when you have nothing it's hard to lose much more except for lives.

As far as Obama or any other president, anyone thinking that they're pulling the strings is deluding themselves. To the truly wealthy that's just a job position that doesn't even pay particularly well. One they don't even need to concern themselves with as their banks are now "too big to jail."

reply to post by UnmitigatedDisaster


This topic has come up the last couple of days. Here is what I am getting, (from a manager of a credit union) - "we have safeguards in place, we learned a lesson from that so yea - the government has safeguards in place. The only way it will go bad is if congress cannot agree if the time comes to put those safeguards to use". He also said they were a bunch of idiots for almost putting us into default, and that one of the safeguards - borrow foreign money.

The other two people I spoke with said pretty much the same thing with a few variations but not one of them thought it wouldn't be something that would make it look like the 20/30's. However - when reading threads like this here at ATS I see that even though safeguards are in place it doesn't mean they would be available to us. Who would loan us more money after the recent game played in WA?