Major Stock Market Crash In January

SubTruth

Dianec
We would never see another Great Depression due to Monopoly money and bail outs. So what difference does it make anymore. The risk is always there but it wouldn't be as dire as back then - lessons were learned. Interesting how it looks like that period of time though.

You are wrong on a many levels...........We currently have a currency bubble and when this one goes it will make the great depression look like the roaring twenties.

You mention that we learned our lessons.........I am not sure what to say to that other then you are wrong. We will see hyper inflation in 2014 some time I believe and when it comes it will be epic.

I can actually prove what I am saying look at all the lower paid workers they are screwed. They can not afford to live anymore.

I have to agree with SubTruth. To begin with, I don't think there will be another bail-out. The first one from 2008 seems to have way too many political repercussions.

Secondly, there is a point about the lower class barely being able to survive. I know a lot of people under 30 who hardly have any assets and are living with parents or grandparents.

When I was last researching The Great Depression, I discovered that there were things going for people back then that we don't have going for us now - namely, the localization of businesses, especially produce. People back then apparently grew more gardens, in addition.

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reply to post by Bassago


I've been saying that we are due for a correction for a while now. I just don't like to comment on when that will be. Though based on your chart, mid-January looks like a good time to look. Well at least the holidays will be over. Not to mention it will be right when everyone starts getting their credit card bills from the holidays. Interesting... Well I'm not going to read to far into this anyways. When it happens, it happens. Nothing I can do to change the situation and worrying about it won't make my life any easier.

"We will never again..." and "Hey ya'll, watch this..." generally end in unnecessary pain.

reply to post by darkbake


We're being lied to on many levels. The only reason we don't already look like the Great Depression now is because the government is busy subsidizing us to stay in housing and it's feeding us.

If that wasn't happening, there would be Bush and Obamavilles under every overpass. Shanty towns like you see in third world countries.

We are actually at level of unemployment nearing 20% or greater. It's just that we don't actually see the scope of the real problem. Government is printing money to keep it all hidden.

reply to post by Krazysh0t

I've been saying that we are due for a correction for a while now. I just don't like to comment on when that will be.

I agree with that. Even the article acknowledges they can't predict something like this either. Their chart and story was a heads-up showing the uncanny similarity.

Frankly I don't really think we'll see a crash in January simply due to the Fed's QE program. But when that stops or if it goes too long, look out.

reply to post by Bassago


Yea exactly, though keep in mind, history likes to repeat itself. We all know that our economy is just one giant bubble precariously dangling over a pit of spikes.

I think there is some merit to this, though I don't believe it will happen as early as January.

Some things to consider: The Dow isn't making gains on "nothing" per say, but they are making regular gains on speculation. Speculation in the marketplace is common, but the big ties between 1929 and today are that both crashes were preceded by the Dow making large gains on speculation, rather than commodity value.

I know I know, speculation amounts to nothing. But reliable market gains made on commodity value are slower and more 'true to market'. Speculation kills, and right now speculative investing has been on a big rise, which I partly feel is due to the 1% and major funds having so much money they can pump in tons on speculation; risks that they might not have taken two decades ago.

However, I think the S&P 500 is a better place to keep your attention to see when the start of an economic crash will occur. The S&P 500 was only six years old when the crash of 1929 happened, the Dow was the big measuring stick. The S&P 500 index is heavily comprised of information technology, medical and health services, energy and media outlets; all of which continue to grow in size and profit - making them much more reliable to track then the Dow, and far better than trying to track the continuing to falter consumer goods market.

Now how much of the S&P 500's gains are due to government subsidies and the Feds I don't know, but if they are a large factor (and probably are) well then *bleep*

Just my $20,000 bucks (gotta account for that hyperinflation! >< )

reply to post by darkbake

I wanted to add was that the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory (Strauss-Howe Generational Theory. The theory is that we repeat patterns in segments of 20 years, in a total 80 year cycle.

I hadn't heard of this before but it's very interesting. Just skimmed it for now but this is one of the parts that stood out and it seemed to fit nicely. It looks well worth a longer read and study.

America's current position in the cycle
Howe posits that America is currently in or about to enter a Fourth Turning. The individualism, risk-taking, and conspicuous consumption of the recent Third Turning are winding down, and today’s social mood is marked by new sobriety about unpaid debts at home and unmet challenges abroad. Society is beginning to view the recent Third Turning as a period of drift when public problems were allowed to accumulate

reply to post by Bassago


I don't know about how this last 20 years has been about individualism though. I've never felt more pressure to conform in my life. I've always been an outsider.

reply to post by darkbake


I love your posts even though we don't always agree. But you make me think. (OW! It burns!)

But I'm going to have to dig into this a bit more. I've always thought that there are trends to almost everything.

reply to post by Bassago


Actually, I believe a new world reserve currency is ready to implement within a matter of two or three days if the market crashes. Currently it is the dollar, it wont be if the stock market crashes. That is my theory at any rate.

I workout with a good friend who has a masters in Economics...he said even if we got another good President in to patch things up, its to late. QE has pumped so much paper into the economy that once the stock market drops dead, the dollar's value will plummet, prices on everything, food, fuel, etc will triple. If the truckers can't afford the fuel to make their deliveries, nothing will get anywhere, grocerey stores will empty, lots of people will go hungry, especially in the big cities. It will be anarchy for awhile, until the ecomomy restabilizes. I think you will see an outbreak of individual state currencies being used for standard trade instead of the dollar. Some states already have their own currency, but it is not used as much as the US dollar is currently...but that will change if the dollar devalues and we have hyperinflation.

reply to post by OpinionatedB

Actually, I believe a new world reserve currency is ready to implement within a matter of two or three days if the market crashes.

China did just call for a new reserve currency. Not sure if one has been put in place yet though. If you have any links please post them, I'd like to take a look at them.

I suppose the IMF and central banks could have one setup already, it would be the smart move considering the global economic outlook.

I know it's slightly off topic, but if they implemented a new currency, would the distribution of wealth stay the same?

I just wonder if, if there was a crash that caused the government to implement a new currency, if they'd do some kind of ratio to old money to give it value. Like, the new currency is valid at 1:1000. In which case, the people with the most money now would still have the most money under a new currency.

I've not really studied how a government transitions to a new currency, especially in a crisis, so I'm asking just for my own education's sake.

Also what are your opinions on precious metals and the like? People seem to be flocking to them, either in physical or invested form, as some kind of valuable worst-case-scenario currency - but I don't see the logic in it.

Gold and the like are only valuable because people say they are; in a market crash I don't see those holdings fairing any better. Likewise you can't eat it, or do anything practical with it in physical form as a normal person - so it doesn't seem like a logical bartering currency.

Edit: I know precious minerals are valuable in a host of ways, especially to electronics now, but I meant assuming an economic crash, where that kind of production would be pretty low.

reply to post by Bassago

I would have to agree with you...we are headed for a depression worse than the 30's...people have no idea ...scary.I suggest to everyone I meet to learn basic homesteading skills,survival methods ,the old ways.People laugh ...most are 3 meals away from looting,violence,etc. Hope that folks will have enough sense to plant a garden on that perfectly manicured lawn..I fear for the small children

reply to post by UnmitigatedDisaster


I truly believe currency,precious metals etc. will all be useless..when it hits the fan...Food,water,food on hoof,land..skills will be the best bargaining chips..Take a look at WWII in Germany...farmers is where the army went to get supplies,where people went to work in exchange for food,farmers were considered the richest...not those holding gold coins or bars..the Back to the Land Movement has the right idea

reply to post by darkbake

I would have to agree with you..the Back to the Land Movement is growing at an incredible rate..luckily..gardens,livestock,canning,wood stoves ..all the things our grandparents did we will be doing soon.I encourage everyone to educate yourselves,practice..so when it does hit the fan..you will be ahead of the game..the game of survival..People laugh ..it won't be funny after just 3 missed meals..People will kill for a loaf of bread...stock up that pantry,learn the skills be prepared...and be prepared to protect yourselves.Sounds horrific..yet all we have to do is look at what happened with Hurricane Katrina...A depression far worse than the 30's is on it's way...God help us all

TDawgRex
reply to post by darkbake

 

I love your posts even though we don't always agree. But you make me think. (OW! It burns!)

But I'm going to have to dig into this a bit more. I've always thought that there are trends to almost everything.

I like his posts too. Honest and intelligent.

I've always known this was coming and as a kid I wanted it. I used to be afraid of choices so I wanted a dictatorship with free energy for all and stuff like this. Now that I am older I am actually afraid. I don't want to lose all of this. I've tried to warn people from 2005 when I got the tip off. (the crash was already supposed to happen, but you know how that goes).. I have money that I can't use because it's tied up and I am not the one in control of it. I wish I could use it for food and water...

Anyway everything is cycles within cycles. These cycles can wander a bit, but they spin back into original placement soon enough. Even emotions relationships thoughts all cycle.. I've been spinning so long I don't know where I am anymore.

Something big is about to change. I knew it had to happen, because poor people are getting too poor. When the poor become a net decline of energy (time money resources) it marks the turning point of the rich peoples wealth. It's all an illusion of using others energy. When the illusion breaks a new one must be made. After money comes what? After money comes the Empire.

Trust me when I say we will beg for our next world order. We can live with no money, but many will die in the process. I don't suspect I will do too well without moving closer to family.

I imagine wars will come as the birth pangs of this new world order. These might even be appealing as an out from starvation.

You know what comes to mind? A movie my girl dragged me to that I ended up liking much more than the first. "Hunger Games" umm the second one... Forget the name but anyway, this is what I see. I don't have any way OUT of it. I can only go THROUGH it.

Hopefully we get nice pharaohs ?

And Rome rises again.

So after money is it TIME that is the currency? Is it blanket socialism? I'm thinking Time, and Creativity are the only valuables in the future. And then Jesus comes and saves the day and we all live happily ever after... Hahaha just kidding. I'd be more worried but I passed my worry capacity long ago. I think I am in the acceptance phase of my grief.

I guess what I am saying is I am enjoying the last days as I can with my cat sleeping on my feet and my girl coming home after work in a few hours. It's funny we have so much debt, but really what for? So another human could lend us his time to talk so then we know more things? And because of this we have to give our time to pay off his time (professors) and his time was worth more than ours.

Anyway...
Life is a trip,
and I think we are about to fall.

reply to post by UnmitigatedDisaster

Gold and the like are only valuable because people say they are; in a market crash I don't see those holdings fairing any better. Likewise you can't eat it, or do anything practical with it in physical form as a normal person - so it doesn't seem like a logical bartering currency.

Gold has held an intrinsic value throughout the past millennium, through thick and thin. I believe it will continue that trend. Granted you can't eat it but when you show up at a farm after the collapse it's probable that this would be accepted as a form of barter, along with other goods and manual labor.

Even after a collapse of this magnitude we will still have levels of poverty. There will be those not on the lowest rung that will want something besides your labor or other trade items.

Edit - Also those invested in precious metals ETF's are going to be in for a shock when they become as worthless as the paper they're printed on.

reply to post by ketsuko


I agree with you..here in Canada they keep saying all is fine...B---S--t...stores are boarded up on main streets,factories are closing down,high unemployment rates..here in Ontario they announced electricity costs will go up 42% over next 4-5 years..average household already pays $125. a month for electricity .The cost of living keeps going up and up..wages don't.It is only a matter of time before we see the riots etc. here just like in Europe.It won't be the homeless folks looting when it all hits the fan...it will be your neighbours,friends,
family...People need to educate themselves in a hurry in basic food survival-forging,growing etc.A new currency a few days post market crash is not going to help the average person put food on the table....