Major Stock Market Crash In January

reply to post by Bassago


I've not been one to watch the stock market so I'll just ask. If the DOW keeps on dropping like it has been each day, seems to be about 100 or more points a day (if you have a better average feel free to use it) how many more days till it tanks and we've reached the point of no return?

reply to post by ObjectZero


I know this wasn't directed at me, but I'd like to offer my 2 cents.

We're already at the point of no return.

In order to create the illusion that the market is good, the Fed would have to pump so much money into the market that it'd create an inflationary nightmare.

Just my humble opinion.

reply to post by beezzer


They already did that.


Just my humble opinion.

reply to post by ObjectZero


I watched the entire mess unfold in 2008 it didn't happen over night. If the market drops too much in one day they will close it down and take action. What is happening now is just a correction. It was over inflated to begin with. Sitting on record high's there was no where else for it to go but down. It can't keep going up forever. If it starts dropping 700 or 800 points a day that's when we're in trouble. I would watch for the jobs report this Friday. If they announce things are ok it might stabilize. Seeing how they kicked a bunch of people off unemployment the numbers might be up since people no longer collecting unemployment are a statistic.

reply to post by ObjectZero


Here's an article released yesterday that outlines the different phases of economic downward trends (personally I didn't even know there were so many, guess my college economics class forgot to mention them...)

'Dip,' 'Correction,' 'Pause': A Guide To All The Different Ways To Say The Market's Hurting

So it looks like we are just shy of a correction (10% drop) sitting at 7% drop.

reply to post by beezzer


True, ok then how much long till the illusion can no longer can be supported?

ObjectZero
reply to post by Bassago

 

I've not been one to watch the stock market so I'll just ask. If the DOW keeps on dropping like it has been each day, seems to be about 100 or more points a day (if you have a better average feel free to use it) how many more days till it tanks and we've reached the point of no return?

Everyone (economists) seems to be getting it that we have created a Global Debt Monster that now both sustains the world economy and is killing it at the same time. China apparently saved themselves temporarily by not allowing a default in the China Trust.

My point is I believe the Fed will realize the tapering the QE has caused this drop here and in emerging markets and undo their taper of easy QE funny money. They'll stabilize the markets at any costs (as China just did) and stop the slid.

I can't predict how much they'll let things fall but I'll hazard a guess not too much in fear of losing control altogether. Since we are not in the default position China was in I'd bet the Fed will opt to kick the can down the road and settle for a deteriorating status quo.

Or as Beezzer most eloquently said with much less verbosity:

In order to create the illusion that the market is good, the Fed would have to pump so much money into the market that it'd create an inflationary nightmare.

ObjectZero
reply to post by beezzer

 

True, ok then how much long till the illusion can no longer can be supported?

That's the million dollar (pun) question.

The dollar is so tied into the Euro and Yuan and Yen that any destabilizing factor can influence it from the outside.

Here's another update, this one from Bloomberg.

Goldman to Fidelity Call for Calm After Global Stock Wipeout

Panic is making an enemy of telephones for Catherine Yeung, the director for equities at Fidelity Investment Management Ltd. in Hong Kong.

It’s worse in developing countries, as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index drops to a five-month low and losses in equity benchmarks from India, Russia, Brazil and Mexico exceed 4 percent for 2014.

Russia canceled a bond auction for the second consecutive week after the emerging-market rout sent yields on the nation’s bonds maturing in 2028 to record highs. The Finance Ministry scrapped the sale after “an analysis of market conditions,” according to a statement on its website.

“The optimism for Russia is long gone,” said Vladimir Tsuprov, the St. Petersburg-based chief investment officer of TKB BNP Paribas

So with the stock market dropping dramatically what do advisers have to say to investors?

“The companies we are looking into can still deliver attractive margins. Things are getting cheap.”

Strategists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to AMP Capital Investors and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are also telling clients to hang on after losses

Riiiight...

MAaaaajor Bump

Seems like everything is according to schedule...

"23 days aligns with the low end on Monday. And subsequent to that, we had a four-day rally, and then the market unraveled — went down 48%. We are currently at that inflection point. Like I said, so far, everything is aligned. We think the next two to three days are extremely critical."

www.zerohedge.com...

reply to post by MessageforAll


That's almost right on the ball with the numbers. I find it funny that they're so near each other, guess the banks didn't learn from their past mistakes.

Just in case folks aren't watching the rest of the world.

Since QE Infinity turned into a pipedream in early May last year when the Fed’s taper cacophony bounced around the world, it has been a volatile mess in the emerging markets that picked up steam recently with currencies, stocks, and bonds skidding. Argentina devalued. Venezuela has become a complete basket case. Turkey, which is mired in a political and democratic crisis, including a “frantic crackdown“ on the media, jacked up its interest rates to make your head spin, in a vain effort to prop up the lira. Brazil, India, Indonesia, and South Africa are flailing about to contain the ravages. China is slowing too. And what we hear is that giant sucking sound of hot money leaving.

And these already teetering European Banks are waving mysterious balance sheets whose decomposing “assets” no one is allowed to disclose, and whose sanctity no one is allowed to even doubt.

Turns out, these illustrious banks are stuck in the credit muck with loans totaling $3.4 trillion to the emerging markets (more than four times the exposure of US banks), according to analysts at Deutsche Bank. And $1.7 trillion of this malodorous debt is on the books of just six (mercifully unnamed) European banks. If a portion of those loans default....
Emerging-Markets Fiasco To Topple European Banks

Starting to look ugly out there. This EU bank thing probably deserves it's own thread.

Well thought it would just blow over after the weekend like so many other have. But come to find out more bankers have dropped dead and that market does not seem to be doing that much better.

Anyone with a little more incite have an idea on how the global market is doing and how it will do this week? I expect a short clime early int he week with a quick drop off around the middle that will keep on going, and maybe two more dead bankers if the average keeps up.

Looks like Market Watch is talking about this again.

Scary 1929 market chart gains traction

ETA - And just for fun and to add to the confusion there's this.

The Dow is up 190 points, or 1.1%. The S&P 500 is up 18 points, or 1.0%. Link

reply to post by ObjectZero


Gold is getting stronger and emerging markets are crashing. The (new) Fed head just said tapering QE will continue. Combined those items seem to indicate the stock market may not be the safest place. Herd mentality may keep it rising though, people have done dumber things.

As for how the rest of the world is doing here's thread on the EU /ECB from a day or so ago. It may give some insight into how they are holding up.

German High Court Blows Up Euro, Says ‘Oh Wait,’ Abdicates

According to some in my other thread that i had posted.

There will be no crash everything is fine, the EUROZone has made Growth.