They don't know if Asteroid DA 14 will miss Earth for sure.

reply to post by OrionsWitness


At that size it would almost certainly break up upon entry.

Originally posted by OrionsWitness
reply to post by smurfy

 

Thanks mate, the link is interesting..and it backs up our assertions, no one knows for sure as you say.
And the distance estimated is very very small (21,000 miles...considering the rock is traveling at approx 27,000 miles per hour (from memory).

Thanks

Here some good reading about 2012 DA
This should make you think just a bit

tech.groups.yahoo.com...

Again: it depends on which estimate you're looking at. JPL, MPC,
and I are all using different weighting schemes. We were all within
each other's sigmas, and I'm pretty sure we'll be within each other's
new sigmas. But those sigmas will be a lot smaller now (in my case,
about 40 times smaller).

> Back at
> the time someone - at JPL? - advised me that the uncertainty of the C/A
> distance was still in the 1000s of kilometers, seemingly quite an
> underestimate.

I had an uncertainty of 9000 km. I vaguely recall JPL's sigma being
in that neighborhood.

Also here
www.facebook.com...#!/groups/inerc/

Here some more of this i'm not 100% sure

tech.groups.yahoo.com...

Re: [MPML] 2012 DA14 recovered < Prev Next >
Posted By: geraldspace geraldspace Send Email
Thu Jan 10, 2013 7:32 pm |


Hi Bill,

I was going off the JPL numbers. Two days ago, they were giving a close
approach distance of 0.0002337995 AU (34,976 km), based on the observations
through May. With the new data, JPL now shows a nominal close approach of
0.000228014368 AU (34,110 km). That's were I got the 800 km difference I
mentioned in my earlier email (actually about 866 km). It looks like their new
value for q is pretty close to yours.

Gerald


-----Original Message-----
>From: Bill Gray pluto@...>
>Sent: Jan 10, 2013 10:50 AM
>To: Gerald McKeegan geraldspace@...>
>Cc: MPML [email protected]>
>Subject: Re: [MPML] 2012 DA14 recovered
>
>Hi Gerald,
>
> I'd have said it was nudged in by more like 3700 km (per my previous
>message: before, q was 37810 +/- 9000 km; now, I'm getting 34106
>+/- 226 km.) Much depends on the weighting of observations, though.
>
> Pseudo-MPEC is at
>
>www.projectpluto.com...
>
> The recovery was about an arcminute off prediction. The predicted mag was
>about 24.2, though it was observed to be around 23.4. Maybe it was caught
>at a bright part of the light curve. That might also explain why, though
>the (304) data has residuals of a bit over an arcsecond, they're all within
>.1 arcsecond of the predicted track.
>
>-- Bill

Why do some of the distance calculations use the center of the earth as the reference for distance instead of the surface of the earth? I noticed that on a close asteroid last year.

Originally posted by rickymouse
Why do some of the distance calculations use the center of the earth as the reference for distance instead of the surface of the earth? I noticed that on a close asteroid last year.

Most likely because all orbit are not perfect round circle
and most Planet , Moon , and Asteroid are not perfectely round.

Ho and it call the "BARYCENTER"

reply to post by OrionsWitness


Ancient astrounaught theorist say "Yes Absolutley".

Currently DA 14 is according to NASAs' near earth Object prediction site, still travelling at approx 7.2/km sec which equates to approx 27,000km per hour.

The max size it could in fact be is 80 meters.
Or as low as a whopping 36 meters.

It will according to the latest NEA predictions , travel approx 0.009 LDs, ie lunar distances to Earth, ie the distance from Earth to the Moon, is 1 LD.

So according to the confident squad, it will not pose a threat to anything.

Now that is confidence.

THey may be using Colgate or not, but all I say is keep an eye out.

reply to post by OrionsWitness

It will according to the latest NEA predictions , travel approx 0.009 LDs

No, you dropped a decimal point. Close approach is .09 LD, and that prediction has been consistent and become more refined with more observations, .00022 AU.
So what?

THey may be using Colgate or not, but all I say is keep an eye out.

And do what? Run in circles? Scream and shout?

reply to post by Phage


Yes you correctly point out my error , DA 14 will according to latest NASA Estimations pass Earth at O.09 Lds.

It is still very close.

But I concede nothings changed ...yet.

This following Astronomy link may give disbelief a pause.
astronomy.activeboard.com...

The site gives analysis of this asteroid DA14.

It is not a NASA site, but the data may give one a cause for concern.

Just an update , according to some sources the likely size of DA14 is 50 meters, though the radar isn't accurate enough at the moment to give a fixed size.
NASA is still displaying 39 m to 80 m as the estimated size range.
I think DA14 is going to get more media attention as the weeks go by, i have researched the NASA site and their methods , over the last few days, and concede they may be right, it won't hit Earth.
But then again..Iam just taking it on faith.

Saw this on spaceweather, did a search, saw this thread, so thought I'd post it here:

science.nasa.gov...

Note:

"2012 DA14 will definitely not hit Earth," emphasizes Yeomans. "The orbit of the asteroid is known well enough to rule out an impact."

"The odds of an impact with a satellite are extremely remote," he says. Almost nothing orbits where DA14 will pass the Earth.

But still, pretty damn interesting...

reply to post by Phage


And did you get that calculation by sitting outside with a telescope while scrutinizing the asteroid for many hours?
If you didn't, then I suggest you don't believe everything some observatory says just because they look smart, honest, and have big shiny computers and telescopes.

Anyone else find it interesting that it's on an orbit almost identical with earth?
Yet they just discovered it...
Odd. So did it just show up last year If so where did it come from.

Its close enough, to raise concern.. Our BEST guess is it will not hit us.. Yet its going to be damn close.. Very little news coverage on this, for a couple of reasons in my opinion, last thing the world leaders want is a reminder, they are NOT gods, and we can be humbled real quickly by a rock from space....


In either case nothing we can really do if we get hit by this rock, I mentioned this rock about a week or two ago, about how no one was really talking about it either. Its not that it was not advertised by the way, I saw it on yahoo, or some other news page, its just people err Sheaple, are too busy on Facebook, instagram, or whatever other media device to keep them occupied and grounded to the two dimensional world..

I always do my best to love the people close to me, my family etc, the very few people in this world that really care about me, to love them everyday, like I can die any moment, because I know one day just like everyone else breathing air right now, will die, be it from a asteroid, or old age or whatever..

Its close enough for me to be looking up, and making sure my loved ones know how much I love them, thats normal thou.

come on people we ALL know that the aliens have a sheild around us to ward of extinction level events, they worked thier little green/gray / reptilean butts off to hard let something like that wipe out there experiments