They don't know if Asteroid DA 14 will miss Earth for sure.

reply to post by Phage


Tell me that is true Phage because I'm going to be up in the air flying for 16 hours over this time period.

I don't believe this is going to pan out the way people are fearing and believing. It seems that from 2009 it is all about predicting doomsday.......I just don't think it will come down this way just yet..........still have a ways to go I think.

My question is that if such a body is this close to earth.............will it affect planes?

Originally posted by criticalmindseed
The composition would also affect whether it burned up or hit earth if it was headed there.
What I wonder is if its orbital path will be altered slightly by our gravity, I should hopefully still be living the next 2 times it swings by.

Be carefull what you whish for it as a
Period 366.2637955227459 # d
and That mean it come around every 366.2637955227459 day
we may run out of luck soon

reply to post by Egyptia

No effect on aircraft or anything else except for the extremely unlikely circumstance of it hitting a satellite in a high orbit.

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
If I'm reading stats about it right .... it's 45 meters across? Now I could see it plowing rudely through the satellite field inside geosynchronous orbit. Isn't that 23,000 miles or something? However, being that small, would it even get to the ground as anything noticeable?

Well the latest NASA data puts DA14 s' size as between 30 and 80 metres ie they do not know for sure, the data is putting its size upwards by the month at least.

A few days ago the size was 29 meters minimum.

The velocity has also slightly increased from memory only.

So we have a approx 3% variation in the experts estimation of its size, no doubt we will see more changes to their guesstimates.

If we put 100% faith in these boffins, we are indeed stupid, just like the dinasours.

Ooh there goes a big flying rock...better run.

Too late.

We should have run sooner.

reply to post by Phage


Thanks Phage, greatly appreciated.

reply to post by OrionsWitness

We should have run sooner.

When in worry,
Or in doubt,
Run in circles,
Scream and shout.

Better get to it. Start running.

(How much have the orbital calcs changed?)

Phage is to doom-threads what cacti are to water balloons.



And just a side note, barring a Bruce Willis-type rescue, any major meteor impact is just a fact of life on this wee little speck of dust floating in the aether.

Originally posted by beezzer
Phage is to doom-threads what cacti are to water balloons.

And just a side note, barring a Bruce Willis-type rescue, any major meteor impact is just a fact of life on this wee little speck of dust floating in the aether.

More like a bull in a china shop.
All your hopes of doom come crashing down.

It will be the closest one ever tracked.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by OrionsWitness

 

We should have run sooner.

When in worry,
Or in doubt,
Run in circles,
Scream and shout.

Better get to it. Start running.

(How much have the orbital calcs changed?)

edit on 1/10/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

To survive the safest place for a few days , near the impact zone would be a coal mine, a solid cave ect.
This would shield one from the air blast, the shattering of glass, the uprooted trees ect.

So forewarned is a start, a chance to plot a contingency plan.

The orbital calculations may have not changed significantly, but the point of this thread , is to examine our faith in waht we are told by other human beings.

Do we think if we were about to face an impact that is not certain that the authorities would risk panic, mayhem, by telling us of the risk?

No they would brainstorm, and settle for silence, as it is not a certain bet the asteroid will hit, and even if it did , the location is and will not be known until its too late.

They know it could hit the ocean far from the coast of any populated land mass, or it could miss Earth entirely.

So why risk a mass exodus of workers on Feb15th?

If it hits say Turin, milan, London, the so be it, the contracts will be lucrative for the rebuilding.

The maths and science are not sound in relation to asteroids.

The error margin is in fact huge.
And the distance in this NEO is tiny.
Have a laugh..poke fun, all ye doubters.

But do you know of the maths, have you observed the data...that determines it will miss for sure?

No most of us just accept what is fed to us.

I cannot understand a fraction of the maths that tells the experts , it will miss Earth for sure.

But something tells me , if you pressed the experts buttons, not on ewould give a 100 per cent guarantee.

Why?

They are estimating, not calculating.

That is the seriously worrying issue here.

They are education guessing.

Originally posted by OrionsWitness

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by OrionsWitness

 

We should have run sooner.

When in worry,
Or in doubt,
Run in circles,
Scream and shout.

Better get to it. Start running.

(How much have the orbital calcs changed?)

edit on 1/10/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

To survive the safest place for a few days , near the impact zone would be a coal mine, a solid cave ect.
This would shield one from the air blast, the shattering of glass, the uprooted trees ect.

So forewarned is a start, a chance to plot a contingency plan.

The orbital calculations may have not changed significantly, but the point of this thread , is to examine our faith in waht we are told by other human beings.

Do we think if we were about to face an impact that is not certain that the authorities would risk panic, mayhem, by telling us of the risk?

No they would brainstorm, and settle for silence, as it is not a certain bet the asteroid will hit, and even if it did , the location is and will not be known until its too late.

They know it could hit the ocean far from the coast of any populated land mass, or it could miss Earth entirely.

So why risk a mass exodus of workers on Feb15th?

If it hits say Turin, milan, London, the so be it, the contracts will be lucrative for the rebuilding.

The maths and science are not sound in relation to asteroids.

The error margin is in fact huge.
And the distance in this NEO is tiny.
Have a laugh..poke fun, all ye doubters.

But do you know of the maths, have you observed the data...that determines it will miss for sure?

No most of us just accept what is fed to us.

I cannot understand a fraction of the maths that tells the experts , it will miss Earth for sure.

But something tells me , if you pressed the experts buttons, not on ewould give a 100 per cent guarantee.

Why?

They are estimating, not calculating.

That is the seriously worrying issue here.

They are education guessing.

Yes I have look have you look at page one
but here it is again

Why take NASA word check for yourself look a lot closer to me
Just download this free program of Celestia ver. 1.6.1 at
www.shatters.net...
Copy and paste what below in note pad and save it as 2012 DA14.ssc
Now just put this file in the EXTRA folder inside celestia folder and see how close it come
# C/2012 DA14
# SSC Provided By Rxxxxxx G. Hxxxxxxxxx Jan 10,2013
# "name of object" "name of primary"
"2012 DA14" "Sol"
[
Class "asteroid"
Texture "asteroid.jpg"
Mesh "asteroid.cms"
Radius 0.200 # Guess
RotationPeriod 11.34 # Guess
Albedo 0.134 # Guess

# taken from
# www.minorplanetcenter.net... OR
# ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

EllipticalOrbit
[
Epoch 2456010.5 # 2012-Mar-24.00 (CT)
Period 366.2637955227459 # d
PericenterDistance 0.8933072428190705 # QR - q
Eccentricity 0.1082314886099339 # EC - e
Inclination 10.33947174196036 # IN - Incl.
AscendingNode 147.2878846791715 # OM - Node
ArgOfPericenter 271.0825411253086 # W - Peri.
MeanAnomaly 469.6440238295972 # position at T

]
InfoURL "http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi#results"
]
# ============================================================
# JPL/HORIZONS (2012 DA14) 2013-Jan-10 16:59:01
# Rec #:732119 (+COV) Soln.date: 2013-Jan-10_01:50:17 # obs: 191 (2012-2013)
#
# FK5/J2000.0 helio. ecliptic osc. elements (AU, DAYS, DEG, period=Julian yrs):
#
# EPOCH= 2456010.5 ! 2012-Mar-24.00 (CT) Residual RMS= .30241
# EC= .1082314886099339 QR= .8933072428190705 TP= 2455895.354664823
# OM= 147.2878846791715 W= 271.0825411253086 IN= 10.33947174196036
# A= 1.001725483025416 MA= 113.1950248694354 ADIST= 1.110143723231762
# PER= 1.00261 N= .9830621859999999 ANGMOM= .017115796
# DAN= .98797 DDN= .99202 L= 58.3882903
# B= -10.337606 TP= 2011-Nov-29.8546648
#
# Physical parameters (KM, SEC, rotational period in hours):
# GM= n.a. RAD= n.a. ROTPER= n.a.
# H= 24.366 G= .150 B-V= n.a.
# ALBEDO= n.a. STYP= n.a.
# ============================================================
# ASTEROID comments:
# 1: soln ref.= JPL#35, OCC=4
# 2: source=ORB

reply to post by OrionsWitness


I never said you were a pompous ass, in fact I said I did not want to come off as a pompous ass. DA 14 is not the closest asteroid to ever come by earth, in fact. The difference between an asteroid and meteor, is quite simply really.

as·ter·oid
A small rocky body orbiting the sun. Large numbers of these, ranging in size from nearly 600 miles (1,000 km) across to dust particles,...

Me-te-or
A small body of matter from outer space that enters the earth's atmosphere, appearing as a streak of light.

Me-te-or-ite
A meteor that survives its passage through the earth's atmosphere such that part of it strikes the ground..

So if DA 14 were to enter the atmosphere as you claim, the moment it does so it's a meteor, if it strikes the surface as you so boldly claim, it becomes a meteorite.

So in failing to even understand the English language, you have yourself come off as a pompous ass. Professing your grandeur in alerting the world of a potentially fatal event thousands of scientist assure us all otherwise. \

I am not one to bit the bit willfully because others say so, but I am by far more likely to swallow what thousands of professional astronomers the world over are saying over your own.

Math can be flawed, science can be flawed, but what you are suggesting is absurd.

Oh, and because DA 14 is only 45 meters across, it's actually classed as a " Meteoroid." How ever, we don't need to delve into that.

DA 14 is not even the closest asteroid, fly by we've experienced. Now, I'm not going to mention every meteor shower that has taken place in my lifetime which are pieces of space rock entering our atmosphere. How ever you do need to understand Earth is hit by some kind of space rock every second of every day. The majority of which go completely un-noticed, but that's okay you must already know that.

2008 Sudan event

On 6 October 2008, scientists calculated that a small near-Earth asteroid, 2008 TC3, just sighted that night, would impact the Earth on 7 October over Sudan

2009 Indonesia event

A large fireball was observed in the skies near Bone, Indonesia on October 8, 2009. This was thought to be caused by an asteroid approximately 10 meters in diameter. The fireball contained an estimated energy of 50 kilotons of TNT, or about twice the Nagasaki atomic bomb. No injuries were reported

2002 Eastern Mediterranean event

On 6 June 2002 an object with an estimated diameter of 10 meters collided with Earth. The collision occurred over the Mediterranean Sea, between Greece and Libya, at approximately 34°N 21°E and the object exploded in mid-air. The energy released was estimated (from infrasound measurements) to be equivalent to 26 kilotons of TNT, comparable to a small nuclear weapon


Oh wait, did you catch what I just did. These were so close they actually hit the earth!! OMG!!! Nothing happened though. Pretty light show, but no body died. These were significant enough that people noticed anyhow. Moral of the story how ever, they burnt up in most cases before they even got close to the ground.

Now, if you go to JPL in look in their archives we have had other close calls. To say this is the closest an asteroid has come is preposterous because an impact event is the closest an asteroid has come.

reply to post by OrionsWitness

Do we think if we were about to face an impact that is not certain that the authorities would risk panic, mayhem, by telling us of the risk?

Do you think the "authorities" are the only ones who can calculate an orbit? Do you think all of the observations of the object which are used to calculate the orbit come from the "authorities"?

The maths and science are not sound in relation to asteroids.

Incorrect.

The error margin is in fact huge.

Incorrect.

No most of us just accept what is fed to us.

Perhaps. But many of us understand orbital mechanics.

They are education guessing.

Does guessing get a probe to land on Mars? Does guessing get 2 probes to visit four gas giants on their way out of the solar system?

reply to post by OrionsWitness


I read your comment about running, or hiding. Where do you think you can hide from a meteorite ? If a large enough body were to collide with the earth you literally can not hide anywhere. Even if it wasn't large enough to devastate the planet, if say an object got through the atmosphere with a retained size of 50m, traveling at oh 5 km/s. It would absolutely decimate it's impact zone. Leave an enormous hole in the ground, and level everything. for miles around. If you were underground, or in a cave nearby it would collapse on top of you, effectively burying you.

To say, the government is with holding an impact event to quell mass chaos is absurd. DA-14 would not decimate a huge area, but maybe a city if it survived entry of the atmosphere and retained enough size(which is doubtful). So that city would be basically dead anyways right? Why not tell em, and let em freak out. They would all be dead, and everything around them destroyed.

I don't see the logic behind what you claim.

reply to post by Hijinx

So in failing to even understand the English language, you have yourself come off as a pompous ass. Professing your grandeur in alerting the world of a potentially fatal event thousands of scientist assure us all otherwise. \ Text

Again in your own pomposity



You accuse me of sounding off on baseless logic in this discussion.

The scientists know more than I , for sure of course.

But they are the same breed , who told the public , that they could hide under tables , in the event of an Atomic bomb being dropped over their heads.

The same breed of thinkers, who told the world only gay people could catch the HiV virus.

The same paid off Government stooges who advised the governments around the world that asbestos was safe, that theldomide was safe.

The same scientific caring minds that allowed DDT to be used on crops for decades.

The same breed of stinkers....that advised the Americans that Agent orange , was safe to humans.

The same great minds, that say mobile phones do not cause brain tumors.

They say what they say for MONEY.
Yes Iam a pompous ass...but so be it, it does not make the truth.... false.

DA 14 may impact The Earth.

And you will find no scientist on this earth who will 100% say it will not happen.

That is the crux of the OP.

Peace be with you , and may i bless you son,me being high and lofty , I ask thee to be humble.

reply to post by OrionsWitness

DA 14 may impact The Earth.

Really?
Please provide a credible source.

neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

reply to post by Phage


Whilst I cannot vouch for the paint theory, this is as credible as the "won't hit period camp".
www.yousaytoo.com...

Think about it whilst ye scoff and ridicule this link, the science is as sound as NASAs'

The crux is....no one knows.

Just as no one knew, about radiation risks to Atsronauts, until they experienced it.

This asteroid is not going to go away ....until feb15th.

I feel in my bones, it is going to get closer than they now say.
Why?
Think of the silence, every war creates silence by the powers.
You know the action is starting when it is silent all of a sudden.
Death becomes acceptable once a war starts.
This is why those with instinct know this Da14 is not what they say.

Mock , but know, the silence ...will not be silent , they will release snippets.

But the majority will be ignorant, because of the preceding silence.
Silence.
The sound before the fury.

** ATTENTION ALL **

Let's not get personal. Remain calm and civil and focus on the topic and not on each other please.

Thank you.

It's not DA 14 that we should be worried about but Apophis which recently made a flypast. Did anyone see it?

"Apophis
A 300 metre-wide asteroid has just made a close pass to the Earth. Apophis is named after the Egyptian demon of destruction and darkness and it has been put on a watch list by scientists. They have calculated that in 2036 there is a very small chance it could collide with our planet. New research suggests there is a much more likely chance of it hitting Earth in 2068. Its current fly-by is at a safe distance of about 14 million km - but this is close enough for astronomers to study the space rock and assess its future risk. "

www.bbc.co.uk... there are some very interesting and informative programmes on the BBC, both TV and radio these days.

www.bbc.co.uk...

Looks like the calculations they make are pretty good if they can look to a 55 year prediction so not gona look for that cave for a few years.

reply to post by OrionsWitness

The crux is....no one knows.

The crux is...it is known.

Just as no one knew, about radiation risks to Atsronauts, until they experienced it.

Actually there were a number of satellites (which followed the laws of orbital mechanics, btw) which provided very good information about radiation risks before any astronauts ventured into space.

I feel in my bones, it is going to get closer than they now say.
Why?

Good question. Your bones can perform orbital calculations? But what you really mean is that you just think that the asteroid will impact Earth (contrary to what the refined orbital calculations indicate) and have a far greater effect than the physics of such an impact would indicate.