They don't know if Asteroid DA 14 will miss Earth for sure.

Originally posted by OrionsWitness
reply to post by Phage

 

Good question. Your bones can perform orbital calculations? But what you really mean is that you just think that the asteroid will impact Earth (contrary to what the refined orbital calculations indicate) and have a far greater effect than the physics of such an impact would indicate

I get the point of your relentless yet civilized and polite probing and poking.

But since the OP, the NASA experts have updated their" prediction" yet again.

The "estimated"minimum size of DA14 has now gone from 30m to 36 m.

What an exact science this Asteroid ORBITAL PREDICTION TRADE IS.

An approx 17% increase in their calculations, their expert calculations within approx nine hours.

Oh but it is an exact , expert spot on prediction, they shout to the world..".DA14 will not impact the Earth".

Yet they have revised the size parameters by 17%.

Perhaps next week we will learn the asteroid will have a minimum size of eighty meters, who knows, lets take bets.

They are mortals, they do not know for certain...anymore than I do. that.it will hit.

When the plague hit , the astute ones, escaped to solitude.
They knew despite the priests wailing that it was a sinners plague, that it was somehow connected to the air.

The plague was transmitted through the air.

So get away from common air.

Maths can tell you of orbits, but not of the truth.

It hides behind the truth,and declares itself as the truth.

Maths , cannot fathom why ...something modelled on a bird dropped a bomb that killed one hundred thousand people in Japan.

Maths is without reasoning...it cannot allow for the random acts of space.

That is why we need to keep alert on DA14.

You keep making really bold claims based of assumptions again.

The first thing that really boiled me here. The Bubonic plague, " Black Death," " The Plague," was transmitted mainly by rodents and their fleas. The plague was actually a bacterial infection caused by Yersinia pestis, and if left untreated was an almost certain death sentence in as little as 4 days at the time.

There are also septicemic, and pneumonic plagues caused by the same bacteria, in roughly the same era, but they were also caused by the same bacteria carried by the rodents an their fleas. Pneumonic plague could be spread from the cough of an infected individual, but ultimately the "Black Death" was sourced back to the rodents and their fleas.

You are making bold assumptions again, much the same as they did during this outbreak.

Also, it's MATH, not maths, and what the hell does " Math can tell you it's orbit, but not the truth." Even mean? The orbit of this object will tell you exactly when and where this object will be, and thus we find the truth.

Again, a 17% margin of error, which I'm still a little confused as to where you came up with that, puts DA14 no closer to hitting earth than previously stated. DA 14 is going to miss, case closed.

Originally posted by smurfy
reply to post by OrionsWitness

 

The Tunguska Comet was thought to be a similar size when it entered the atmosphere, recently a large fragment was found in one of the craters. So you could take your cue from that, although an asteroid may have a different effect, but not world ending.

edit on 11-1-2013 by smurfy because: Text.

The tunguska event was credited to an object at least 100m in diameter. Go look it up, and no DA-14 has absolutely nothing in common with the tunguska event. You're very statement should scream at you, given you've labeled to completely different celestial bodies as anything alike.

Tunguska event

I've heard of many proposed "Craters," but have yet to hear of a true impact scar from the tunguska event. The object exploded an estimated 5-10km from the ground, which is in part to it's impressive results. It is because of this airburst, that no significant portion of rock left a noticeable impact scar.

Originally posted by Hijinx
Also, it's MATH, not maths, and what the hell does " Math can tell you it's orbit, but not the truth." Even mean?

I hate to pull you up on this as everything else you say is basically true, but it IS actually "maths" as in "mathematics". In English, the singular "mathematic" (and hence "math") does not exist and makes no sense. Everyone outside America tend to say it right, unless they've been influenced by a NA speaking person.

But for the OP, no it will not hit us, the maths is well known and understood. The size of the object does not matter so they can revise that as much as they want, it's all about it's mass and that has been known accurately since not long after it was discovered. You should have asked your bones, they would have told you, apparently.

Originally posted by Hijinx

Originally posted by smurfy
reply to post by OrionsWitness

 

The Tunguska Comet was thought to be a similar size when it entered the atmosphere, recently a large fragment was found in one of the craters. So you could take your cue from that, although an asteroid may have a different effect, but not world ending.

edit on 11-1-2013 by smurfy because: Text.

The tunguska event was credited to an object at least 100m in diameter. Go look it up, and no DA-14 has absolutely nothing in common with the tunguska event. You're very statement should scream at you, given you've labeled to completely different celestial bodies as anything alike.

Tunguska event

I've heard of many proposed "Craters," but have yet to hear of a true impact scar from the tunguska event. The object exploded an estimated 5-10km from the ground, which is in part to it's impressive results. It is because of this airburst, that no significant portion of rock left a noticeable impact scar.

edit on 11-1-2013 by Hijinx because: (no reason given)

I said thought to be, and originally an asteroid that exploded in the air, and not 100m, but smaller so not my thinking. In fact it is now..only recently found to have been a comet so you miss the point, it was the boffins who came up with the asteroid calculations, not me, and now that it turns out to have been a comet, then the calculation stands for that comet as much as it was thought to have stood to what was originally thought to have been an asteroid. A main crater has been found in the permafrost, along with a large part of the comet deeply buried, you jump the gun a wee bit to quick. And thanks for your advice, but I do look things up. Now you go and look.

To all who contributed without snide personal insults thanks , to the rest thanks.
Back to the crux of this subject here is some info posted on NASAs' website.

" A report from Elizabeth Silber and Peter Brown at the University of Western Ontario indicates that several international very-long wavelength infrasound detectors recorded the blast and fixed the position near the coastal city of Bone in South Sulawesi, island of Sulewesi. They note that the blast was in the 10 to 50 kT range with the higher end of this range being more likely.

Assuming an estimated size of about 5-10 meters in diameter, we would expect a fireball event of this magnitude about once every 2 to 12 years on average. As a rule, the most common types of stony asteroids would not be expected to cause ground damage unless their diameters were aboutt 25 meters in diameter or larger."

The above is a report on an observed fireball in 2009 over Indonesia.

Notice how it says 25metres or over would be expected to cause ground damage.
Da14 is estimated to be between 36 m and 80m as of today.

What some responding to this thread fail to grasp, even though I have stated it several times.

Iam not saying the world will end, only that DA14 may hit Earth, due to unknowns that the equations take no account of.

When s11 towers came down, did the best construction engineers and designers , get their calculations wrong?

Seems like they did, they didn't take into account some planes hitting their precious buildings and overheating the steel.

The critical factor here is distance...and all who s'n-word' and say 21,000 miles from earthe to DA14 is a long way...well it is the closest over 25 metre asteroid in recorded history, apart from the already mentioned Siberian one.

Oh and the odds of it hitting populated land mass may be slim...but it will hit where it hits.

And nothing would be able to stop it, so odds are sort of meaningless if one thinks about it.

Lets hope all the scientific Maths involved in the calculations is correct, and that no unexpected variables pop
up to spoil that holy calculation that says it will 100% miss Earth.

Just imagine if it hits another Asteroid as it approaches Earth, the error margin is so small, a slight nudge would send it perhaps to Earth.
Just keep an open mind please, instead of some who attempt to Lord it over , those who think for themselves.
Intuition is based on intelligent internal processing of information.
You can preach about NASA and its perfected Maths.
But some prefer to sit awhile and make a fence their home..

reply to post by Hijinx


At that time, they also used bodies dead from plague to lurch over castle/fortress walls to infect the people hiding up in there. Talk about the first use of biological weapons.

aliens will deflect the rock my friends

reply to post by Hijinx

Quote by Hjink
The first thing that really boiled me here. The Bubonic plague, " Black Death," " The Plague," was transmitted mainly by rodents and their fleas. The plague was actually a bacterial infection caused by Yersinia pestis, and if left untreated was an almost certain death sentence in as little as 4 days at the time.

There are also septicemic, and pneumonic plagues caused by the same bacteria, in roughly the same era, but they were also caused by the same bacteria carried by the rodents an their fleas. Pneumonic plague could be spread from the cough of an infected individual, but ultimately the "Black Death" was sourced back to the rodents and their fleas.

You are making bold assumptions again, much the same as they did during this outbreak.
End of Hijink quote

I said it was transmitted through the air mate.
The air is still between the source of infection and the non infected is it not?

Yes Iam writing this thread to self glorify myself like you kindly stated...thanks for exposing my intentions...and that is coming from someone who has such a non glorifying Avatar such as yours.

Time will tell as it always does.
We will see how accurate the predictions are by the 15th February.
But seriously , you should think before you insult OPs in their threads.
It is not a crime for me to write on this subject, we all are here ...to express our opinions.
I think we all nurture our alter egos or our expressive self on ATS.
Argue the point ,not insult those you disagree with perhaps.

reply to post by OrionsWitness


I meant to say OP, that this particular rock, is anything but being brushed under the carpet. In fact JPL/NASA have been pretty honest about it. I started a thread on this same rock around the discovery time last year, using the link title, and it has to be said that then, they were not sure of its path except being close to the same plane as Earth, and that the February flyby will be used to assess future flybys, and that it will be monitored closely in the meantime now that they knew it was there, I think it was calculated to be 45m then, and presently 58m.
The story was covered by the Daily Mail, AOL and National Geographic, this is the NG link,

news.nationalgeographic.com...

It contains candid remarks from various people at JPL/NASA explaining how they go about things, and gives a good picture of what they expect to be doing right up to February's flyby and beyond.
Much more than that, nobody really knows until the flyby date has passed. At that point, as the link explains, they did not foresee much change. Anything in between, use the JPL widget it should tell you the last update.

Currently, (as of Jan 10th)

2013-Feb-15 19:25 < 00:01 Earth 0.000228014367874602 (0.000227521591228691) 0.000228509197883836

Middle figure is the median, about 21,000 miles flyby.

ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

reply to post by smurfy


Thanks mate, the link is interesting..and it backs up our assertions, no one knows for sure as you say.
And the distance estimated is very very small (21,000 miles...considering the rock is traveling at approx 27,000 miles per hour (from memory).

Thanks

Originally posted by smurfy

Originally posted by Hijinx

Originally posted by smurfy
reply to post by OrionsWitness

 

The Tunguska Comet was thought to be a similar size when it entered the atmosphere, recently a large fragment was found in one of the craters. So you could take your cue from that, although an asteroid may have a different effect, but not world ending.

edit on 11-1-2013 by smurfy because: Text.

The tunguska event was credited to an object at least 100m in diameter. Go look it up, and no DA-14 has absolutely nothing in common with the tunguska event. You're very statement should scream at you, given you've labeled to completely different celestial bodies as anything alike.

Tunguska event

I've heard of many proposed "Craters," but have yet to hear of a true impact scar from the tunguska event. The object exploded an estimated 5-10km from the ground, which is in part to it's impressive results. It is because of this airburst, that no significant portion of rock left a noticeable impact scar.

edit on 11-1-2013 by Hijinx because: (no reason given)

I said thought to be, and originally an asteroid that exploded in the air, and not 100m, but smaller so not my thinking. In fact it is now..only recently found to have been a comet so you miss the point, it was the boffins who came up with the asteroid calculations, not me, and now that it turns out to have been a comet, then the calculation stands for that comet as much as it was thought to have stood to what was originally thought to have been an asteroid. A main crater has been found in the permafrost, along with a large part of the comet deeply buried, you jump the gun a wee bit to quick. And thanks for your advice, but I do look things up. Now you go and look.

That suspected crater, lake Chekov, has NOT been proven to be an impact crater, and is currently a white paper posted by a team that is doing the research. It will take an incredible amount of work to prove this out. Not science until science says so.

Originally posted by charlyv

Originally posted by smurfy

Originally posted by Hijinx

Originally posted by smurfy
reply to post by OrionsWitness

 

The Tunguska Comet was thought to be a similar size when it entered the atmosphere, recently a large fragment was found in one of the craters. So you could take your cue from that, although an asteroid may have a different effect, but not world ending.

edit on 11-1-2013 by smurfy because: Text.

The tunguska event was credited to an object at least 100m in diameter. Go look it up, and no DA-14 has absolutely nothing in common with the tunguska event. You're very statement should scream at you, given you've labeled to completely different celestial bodies as anything alike.

Tunguska event

I've heard of many proposed "Craters," but have yet to hear of a true impact scar from the tunguska event. The object exploded an estimated 5-10km from the ground, which is in part to it's impressive results. It is because of this airburst, that no significant portion of rock left a noticeable impact scar.

edit on 11-1-2013 by Hijinx because: (no reason given)

I said thought to be, and originally an asteroid that exploded in the air, and not 100m, but smaller so not my thinking. In fact it is now..only recently found to have been a comet so you miss the point, it was the boffins who came up with the asteroid calculations, not me, and now that it turns out to have been a comet, then the calculation stands for that comet as much as it was thought to have stood to what was originally thought to have been an asteroid. A main crater has been found in the permafrost, along with a large part of the comet deeply buried, you jump the gun a wee bit to quick. And thanks for your advice, but I do look things up. Now you go and look.

That suspected crater, lake Chekov, has NOT been proven to be an impact crater, and is currently a white paper posted by a team that is doing the research. It will take an incredible amount of work to prove this out. Not science until science says so.

it's as good as your gonna get regards Tunguska, and you know it. A 'white paper' is better than a green paper, and the Italian team is pretty convincing, why not post the link? I was not inclined to do so to the poster I replied to for obvious reasons. Better still, try and find out the consensus among interested scientists, you might just find it is in favour of a comet. Why not check out the Russians too, they seem to like like the Italian teams findings.
I'll give you this link from Pravda,
english.pravda.ru...

Originally posted by smurfy

Originally posted by charlyv

Originally posted by smurfy

Originally posted by Hijinx

Originally posted by smurfy
reply to post by OrionsWitness

 

The Tunguska Comet was thought to be a similar size when it entered the atmosphere, recently a large fragment was found in one of the craters. So you could take your cue from that, although an asteroid may have a different effect, but not world ending.

edit on 11-1-2013 by smurfy because: Text.

The tunguska event was credited to an object at least 100m in diameter. Go look it up, and no DA-14 has absolutely nothing in common with the tunguska event. You're very statement should scream at you, given you've labeled to completely different celestial bodies as anything alike.

Tunguska event

I've heard of many proposed "Craters," but have yet to hear of a true impact scar from the tunguska event. The object exploded an estimated 5-10km from the ground, which is in part to it's impressive results. It is because of this airburst, that no significant portion of rock left a noticeable impact scar.

edit on 11-1-2013 by Hijinx because: (no reason given)

I said thought to be, and originally an asteroid that exploded in the air, and not 100m, but smaller so not my thinking. In fact it is now..only recently found to have been a comet so you miss the point, it was the boffins who came up with the asteroid calculations, not me, and now that it turns out to have been a comet, then the calculation stands for that comet as much as it was thought to have stood to what was originally thought to have been an asteroid. A main crater has been found in the permafrost, along with a large part of the comet deeply buried, you jump the gun a wee bit to quick. And thanks for your advice, but I do look things up. Now you go and look.

That suspected crater, lake Chekov, has NOT been proven to be an impact crater, and is currently a white paper posted by a team that is doing the research. It will take an incredible amount of work to prove this out. Not science until science says so.

it's as good as your gonna get regards Tunguska, and you know it. A 'white paper' is better than a green paper, and the Italian team is pretty convincing, why not post the link? I was not inclined to do so to the poster I replied to for obvious reasons. Better still, try and find out the consensus among interested scientists, you might just find it is in favour of a comet. Why not check out the Russians too, they seem to like like the Italian teams findings.
I'll give you this link from Pravda,
english.pravda.ru...

No, it is not " as good as it is going to get" with this major exploding bolide event. The most important in our recent history, as it is the crux of our understanding of the kind of damage that an airborne meteoroid detonation can cause. You are missing the point about real world validation, because that is the only way that the knowledge of this investigation becomes information that is usable, as well as making it a historical fact.

All the people in the world can comment on this, claiming that it is an actual impact crater. To science, is is all about proof. Pure and simple. No disillusionment, no "it has to be !" That is what these dedicated scientists (and you can read about their credentials) are all about as it is what drives them. If the crater turns out to be real or not real, science wins either way.

Originally posted by charlyv

Originally posted by smurfy

Originally posted by charlyv

Originally posted by smurfy

Originally posted by Hijinx

Originally posted by smurfy
reply to post by OrionsWitness

 

The Tunguska Comet was thought to be a similar size when it entered the atmosphere, recently a large fragment was found in one of the craters. So you could take your cue from that, although an asteroid may have a different effect, but not world ending.

edit on 11-1-2013 by smurfy because: Text.

The tunguska event was credited to an object at least 100m in diameter. Go look it up, and no DA-14 has absolutely nothing in common with the tunguska event. You're very statement should scream at you, given you've labeled to completely different celestial bodies as anything alike.

Tunguska event

I've heard of many proposed "Craters," but have yet to hear of a true impact scar from the tunguska event. The object exploded an estimated 5-10km from the ground, which is in part to it's impressive results. It is because of this airburst, that no significant portion of rock left a noticeable impact scar.

edit on 11-1-2013 by Hijinx because: (no reason given)

I said thought to be, and originally an asteroid that exploded in the air, and not 100m, but smaller so not my thinking. In fact it is now..only recently found to have been a comet so you miss the point, it was the boffins who came up with the asteroid calculations, not me, and now that it turns out to have been a comet, then the calculation stands for that comet as much as it was thought to have stood to what was originally thought to have been an asteroid. A main crater has been found in the permafrost, along with a large part of the comet deeply buried, you jump the gun a wee bit to quick. And thanks for your advice, but I do look things up. Now you go and look.

That suspected crater, lake Chekov, has NOT been proven to be an impact crater, and is currently a white paper posted by a team that is doing the research. It will take an incredible amount of work to prove this out. Not science until science says so.

it's as good as your gonna get regards Tunguska, and you know it. A 'white paper' is better than a green paper, and the Italian team is pretty convincing, why not post the link? I was not inclined to do so to the poster I replied to for obvious reasons. Better still, try and find out the consensus among interested scientists, you might just find it is in favour of a comet. Why not check out the Russians too, they seem to like like the Italian teams findings.
I'll give you this link from Pravda,
english.pravda.ru...

No, it is not " as good as it is going to get" with this major exploding bolide event. The most important in our recent history, as it is the crux of our understanding of the kind of damage that an airborne meteoroid detonation can cause. You are missing the point about real world validation, because that is the only way that the knowledge of this investigation becomes information that is usable, as well as making it a historical fact.

All the people in the world can comment on this, claiming that it is an actual impact crater. To science, is is all about proof. Pure and simple. No disillusionment, no "it has to be !" That is what these dedicated scientists (and you can read about their credentials) are all about as it is what drives them. If the crater turns out to be real or not real, science wins either way.

edit on 11-1-2013 by charlyv because: (no reason given)

Pretty much as I already said, the 'for' crater as it turns out, is so far, plausible in scientific terms at the least thus far, and more than possible, when there are related matters, not centered on the the crater, but in residual findings outside of the crater. There is no 'has to be' in advance, where did you get that idea? the consensus I talk about is something shared, not written in stone. I don't much give a feck about the damage an airborne detonation can cause, comet or asteroid, or 'bermb' the number crunchers know that already, as much as they know dealing when with a known entity, in the aftermath in comparison.

Originally posted by OrionsWitness
Iam not saying the world will end, only that DA14 may hit Earth, due to unknowns that the equations take no account of.

Isn't this like saying that tomorrow the sun could blow up because of unknown causes no one has ever observed in any way? You could say this about an infinite number of things in the universe but it would be a pointless comment and no one's going to put any thought to it unless any signs indicate the possibility of it happening. As far as anyone on the planet is aware, the asteroid will miss us and the sun will not blow up tomorrow, as certainly as it's possibly to currently be.

Or do you know of some unknowns that need to be added to the massively well established equations that the top minds use and derive all around the world?

reply to post by Subterranean13


I totally understand where you are coming from, I have risked and have been shot down already ...because of this Op.

But as already stated several times, its about the distance.

Less than 21,000 kms distance from the centre of Earth to the centree of the DA14 asteroid approx.. is not far, considering DA14 is travelling at approx 27,000 km per hour.

So many oblivious, yet so few mock.

And Iam not meaning you, you asked a valid question.

But all I can reiterate is distance.

That is what the so called informed on ATS who denegrate the OP fail to factor in.

OKAY!! NOW as the Mayan Calendar misinterpretation has been exposed as a complete hoax, those fearmongers who want to create a fear among the masses to serve their agenda just like JFK has addressed in his final address before he gets silenced are trying to come up with another fake reason to increase their budget and get the masses away from the truth. the truth is very simple, NASA Scientists went to Business School where they earned a PhD in Banking and few courses of how to copy the Simpsons.

The truth is that Earth will not be hit by any darn object; we could have been the victim before we existed on planet earth if all this rumors and deception have credibility.

WAKE UP

earth's Diameter is about 13000km, the moon is about 30 times this distance from the earth. This asteroid is supposedly coming within 21000 KM. That is close. less than two earth diameter's away.

Is it possible that an object of this size, moving at such a velocity and coming so close to the earth could get caught by the earth'y gravity and either:

A: Get stuck in orbit around earth and form another natural satellite.

B: Be pulled into earth.

My point is, that although the asteroid is projected to pass by earth, it is so close that earths gravity would almost certainly 'pull' the object towards earth.


I'm no physicist so this is all just rambling, forgive me if i'm insulting anyone's discipline.

I think orbital velocity at 21000 km would be around 4km/s ...

The moon's orbital velocity is about 1km/s at 370 000 KM from earth...

I assume the mass of the orbiting object would effect the required speed? eg bigger mass would require higher speed as gravity will be higher (earth gravity + gravity of object (grant gravity of 45 mtr object is low)).

Thoughts?

reply to post by bigdohbeatdown

A: Get stuck in orbit around earth and form another natural satellite.

No. Its relative velocity is too high (7.82 km/s).

B: Be pulled into earth.

No. Its relative velocity is too high.

My point is, that although the asteroid is projected to pass by earth, it is so close that earths gravity would almost certainly 'pull' the object towards earth.

The actual point is that the influence of Earth's gravity is accounted for in the calculations. The asteroid will not hit Earth.

Originally posted by OrionsWitness
Asteroid DA 14 is curiously going under the mainstream medias radar.
It has enough punch to wipe out millions of humans if it impacts a populated land mass.
It is projected to come within 21 thousand miles of Earth at least.



The authorities are ignoring the possibility of an error in the projected orbit path, or that it may hit another body as it nears Earth , causing mayhem.

Don't be fooled by its relatively small size(45 to 75 meters)., if it impacts earth , it would cause destruction equivalent to approx 40 Hiroshima Atomic bombs.

This is the closest Asteroid encounter to Earth in recorded history ( other than those that have hit Earth).

So you may ask?

Well it may hit , that is what.

And you may find , some think it will.

February the 15th is when we will find out either way.

February the fifteenth is the date Galileo was born.

Coincidence?

Or a sign?

It will be observable using a modest telescope or binoculars MAG 7 or even brighter if it hits Earth.

Remember asteroid orbital prediction is not an exact science.

And there is so little space for error, this rock , is traveling twice the speed of the ISS.

And yet we are told ,all is ok , it will miss for sure.

I think there should be precautionary warnings issued, most people do not even know that DA 14 exists.

35 days perhaps that's all we have got.....or not.

You know. ..

Pressing enter and skipping lines won't make this any more dramatic. .. And as Page said, it is not going to hit. Move on.