They don't know if Asteroid DA 14 will miss Earth for sure.

Asteroid DA 14 is curiously going under the mainstream medias radar.
It has enough punch to wipe out millions of humans if it impacts a populated land mass.
It is projected to come within 21 thousand miles of Earth at least.



The authorities are ignoring the possibility of an error in the projected orbit path, or that it may hit another body as it nears Earth , causing mayhem.

Don't be fooled by its relatively small size(45 to 75 meters)., if it impacts earth , it would cause destruction equivalent to approx 40 Hiroshima Atomic bombs.

This is the closest Asteroid encounter to Earth in recorded history ( other than those that have hit Earth).

So you may ask?

Well it may hit , that is what.

And you may find , some think it will.

February the 15th is when we will find out either way.

February the fifteenth is the date Galileo was born.

Coincidence?

Or a sign?

It will be observable using a modest telescope or binoculars MAG 7 or even brighter if it hits Earth.

Remember asteroid orbital prediction is not an exact science.

And there is so little space for error, this rock , is traveling twice the speed of the ISS.

And yet we are told ,all is ok , it will miss for sure.

I think there should be precautionary warnings issued, most people do not even know that DA 14 exists.

35 days perhaps that's all we have got.....or not.

Originally posted by retirednature
umm... that's not even close, and why are you fear mongering?

Why not countdown to Feb 15?

2012 DA14
Feb 15
0.09 LD
57 m

2012 DA14 is a near earth asteroid with an estimated diameter of about 45 meters and an estimated mass of about 130,000 metric tons.[3] It was discovered on February 23, 2012, by the OAM Observatory, La Sagra in Spain (J75)[1] seven days after passing 0.0174 AU (2,600,000 km; 1,620,000 mi) from Earth on February 16.[2] Calculations show that on February 15, 2013, the distance between the asteroid and Earth will be 0.09 LD (35,000 km; 21,000 mi).[4]

en.wikipedia.org...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I was actually being sarcastic!

"Why not countdown to Feb 15?"

Thank you OP for answering my question.

This is the closest Asteroid encounter to Earth in recorded history ( other than those that have hit Earth).

Where did you get this information?

Originally posted by OrionsWitness
Asteroid DA 14 is curiously going under the mainstream medias radar.
It has enough punch to wipe out millions of humans if it impacts a populated land mass.
It is projected to come within 21 thousand miles of Earth at least

If what you say does happen, then that means my dream will have come true. I am indeed, calling it my first prediction because I couldn't believe how I felt within my dream and I've NEVER had a dream and felt that way before quite like it.

You're starting to make me worry now.

My Dream

Only thing that will happen on the 15th is alot of hang overs from people without a valentine

If I'm reading stats about it right .... it's 45 meters across? Now I could see it plowing rudely through the satellite field inside geosynchronous orbit. Isn't that 23,000 miles or something? However, being that small, would it even get to the ground as anything noticeable?

Originally posted by neobludragon
Only thing that will happen on the 15th is alot of hang overs from people without a valentine

Thanks for reminding me I will be spending my 1st Valentine in over 10 years alone
sniff


Back to the OP will we be able to see it?

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
If I'm reading stats about it right .... it's 45 meters across? Now I could see it plowing rudely through the satellite field inside geosynchronous orbit. Isn't that 23,000 miles or something? However, being that small, would it even get to the ground as anything noticeable?

Play around with this for awhile and find out.
It's the ultimate doomsday game.

www.purdue.edu...

Stupid windows 8 keeps me from playing it.


Ha!Got it to work and for a rock that size,it would most likely burn up.

The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 47100 meters = 154000 ft
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 7000 meters = 23000 ft.
The residual velocity of the projectile fragments after the burst is 3.61 km/s = 2.24 miles/s. The energy of the airburst is 1.06 x 10^16 Joules = 2.53 x 10^0 MegaTons.
No crater is formed, although large fragments may strike the surface.

Don't be fooled by its relatively small size(45 to 75 meters)., if it impacts earth , it would cause destruction equivalent to approx 40 Hiroshima Atomic bombs.

Except that the energy would be released high in the atmosphere, not on the surface.

The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 47100 meters = 154000 ft
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 8540 meters = 28000 ft.
The residual velocity of the projectile fragments after the burst is 3.98 km/s = 2.47 miles/s.
The energy of the airburst is 7.52 x 10^15 Joules = 1.8 x 10^0 MegaTons.
No crater is formed, although large fragments may strike the surface.

www.purdue.edu...
Some windows might break, some trees knocked down.

Well it may hit , that is what.

No. It won't. The margin of error in the predicted orbit is very, very small.

reply to post by OrionsWitness


I'm going to do this gently, as I fear you are less likely to take me seriously if I'm a pompous ass. Da14 is not going to hit earth. 21,000 miles outside our atmosphere is a pretty long way off mate. Not to mention, this object is estimated at 45 meters.

I will not scoff at a 45 meter asteroid because it can surely do some damage, but it would entirely be dependent on it's speed, the angle of entry, and the location it finally makes contact with the surface. I mention speed and angle of entry, because a significant portion of this small asteroid could be burned up the moment it made contact with the atmosphere, or it could break into smaller pieces, increasing the likelihood, those pieces would burn up into smaller pieces of much less threat.

The idea of a meteorite impact is terrifying I will admit, and yes Earth has had a few close ones in our lifetimes, but I'm not sold one bit on the idea DA14 is going to strike us this february. 21,000 miles is pretty close, but it's not nearly close enough for me to start fear mongering on ATS. Even with the margin of error, the object itself is far smaller than the projected close pass.

Now if this object were still a year away from the close pass, I could see all the Observatories and satellites making a miscalculation in it's path, but it's one months travel time from earth. It's by far easier to guess direction when an object is that close to, than when it is a year off. Please, don't hold your breath. It's going to sail on by just like every other object that's come closer than the moon to us. it's 45 meters. It's a grain of sand compared to the earth.

Keep in mind the Hiroshima bomb sounds scary, but 40 times the Hiroshima bomb is still smaller than the largest H bomb ever detonated.

The little boy which was dropped on Hiroshima was a yield equivalent of 16kt , the largest ever detonated hydrogen bomb, was the Tsar bomba, which was a 57 megaton bomb.

The Tsar Bomba was a three-stage Teller–Ulam design hydrogen bomb with a yield of 57 megatons (Mt).[5] This is equivalent to 1,400 times the combined power of the bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki,[6] 10 times the combined power of all the conventional explosives used in WWII, or one quarter of the estimated yield of the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa.

The tsar bomba did not wipe out humanity, nor will DA 14. It will not cause an apocalyptic fall out winter. It is not even going to hit the earth. Calm down, don't fear monger please.

reply to post by Phage


Damn you windows 8!

I was editing when you posted that.

reply to post by Phage


Thank you, for that phage!!!

You've pretty much quelled any hype even " IF " Da 14 were to break the upper atmosphere.

It's listed on JPL with a condition code of zero.

MPC "U" parameter: orbit uncertainty estimate 0-9, with 0 being good, and 9 being highly uncertain

Above are the parameters for the condition code. Zero means they are confident in their calculations that it will not hit.

The data arc span is 321 days, or how long they have been tracking the rock, and, they have used 191 calculations to determine trajectory.

It's not going to hit us. At least not this time around.

ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012%20DA14;orb=1

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


If it that small...as long as the thing isn't pure Iron the vast majority of it should burn up in Earths atmosphere. An asteroid that small...even if it hit Earth still being 90% of it's original size which is Highly unlikely...would not have the ability to do any large scale damage but it could level perhaps 10 city blocks or more.

But given the size of Earth oceans it's chances of hitting land would be minimal.

Split Infinity

Why take NASA word check for yourself look a lot closer to me
Just download this free program of Celestia ver. 1.6.1 at

www.shatters.net...

Copy and paste what below in note pad and save it as 2012 DA14.ssc
Now just put this file in the EXTRA folder inside celestia folder and see how close it come

# C/2012 DA14
# SSC Provided By Rxxxxxx G. Hxxxxxxxxx Jan 10,2013
# "name of object" "name of primary"
"2012 DA14" "Sol"
[
Class "asteroid"
Texture "asteroid.jpg"
Mesh "asteroid.cms"
Radius 0.200 # Guess
RotationPeriod 11.34 # Guess
Albedo 0.134 # Guess

# taken from
# www.minorplanetcenter.net... OR
# ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

EllipticalOrbit
[
Epoch 2456010.5 # 2012-Mar-24.00 (CT)
Period 366.2637955227459 # d
PericenterDistance 0.8933072428190705 # QR - q
Eccentricity 0.1082314886099339 # EC - e
Inclination 10.33947174196036 # IN - Incl.
AscendingNode 147.2878846791715 # OM - Node
ArgOfPericenter 271.0825411253086 # W - Peri.
MeanAnomaly 469.6440238295972 # position at T

]
InfoURL "http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi#results"
]
# =================================================================
# JPL/HORIZONS (2012 DA14) 2013-Jan-10 16:59:01
# Rec #:732119 (+COV) Soln.date: 2013-Jan-10_01:50:17 # obs: 191 (2012-2013)
#
# FK5/J2000.0 helio. ecliptic osc. elements (AU, DAYS, DEG, period=Julian yrs):
#
# EPOCH= 2456010.5 ! 2012-Mar-24.00 (CT) Residual RMS= .30241
# EC= .1082314886099339 QR= .8933072428190705 TP= 2455895.354664823
# OM= 147.2878846791715 W= 271.0825411253086 IN= 10.33947174196036
# A= 1.001725483025416 MA= 113.1950248694354 ADIST= 1.110143723231762
# PER= 1.00261 N= .9830621859999999 ANGMOM= .017115796
# DAN= .98797 DDN= .99202 L= 58.3882903
# B= -10.337606 TP= 2011-Nov-29.8546648
#
# Physical parameters (KM, SEC, rotational period in hours):
# GM= n.a. RAD= n.a. ROTPER= n.a.
# H= 24.366 G= .150 B-V= n.a.
# ALBEDO= n.a. STYP= n.a.
# =================================================================
# ASTEROID comments:
# 1: soln ref.= JPL#35, OCC=4
# 2: source=ORB

reply to post by kdog1982

Thanks greatly for the excellent link to 'Impact Earth".
That is an amazing program.
But it is an assumption that it will break up...though it may , the efffects could still be devastating.

The air blasts alone , it is stated would shatter glass within 20km at least.
Imagine if it hits a nuclear reactor, or a bio warfare lab?
Or heaven forbid ,a crowded city full of skyscrapers.

reply to post by TheProphetMark


After reading your dream, Iam getting worried too.
The Galileo coincidence is eerie, no doubt, it is pointing to something.
Lets hope your dream , is not a literal one.

reply to post by OrionsWitness

Not sure what parameters you used to find a 20km radius for broken windows but I checked the relative velocity of 2012 DA14. It's 7.82 km/s. That cuts the energy down quite a bit.

Not that it matters. There is no chance of impact.

Originally posted by Hijinx
reply to post by OrionsWitness

 

I'm going to do this gently, as I fear you are less likely to take me seriously if I'm a pompous ass. Da14 is not going to hit earth. 21,000 miles outside our atmosphere is a pretty long way off mate. Not to mention, this object is estimated at 45 meters.

I will not scoff at a 45 meter asteroid because it can surely do some damage, but it would entirely be dependent on it's speed, the angle of entry, and the location it finally makes contact with the surface. I mention speed and angle of entry, because a significant portion of this small asteroid could be burned up the moment it made contact with the atmosphere, or it could break into smaller pieces, increasing the likelihood, those pieces would burn up into smaller pieces of much less threat.

The idea of a meteorite impact is terrifying I will admit, and yes Earth has had a few close ones in our lifetimes, but I'm not sold one bit on the idea DA14 is going to strike us this february. 21,000 miles is pretty close, but it's not nearly close enough for me to start fear mongering on ATS. Even with the margin of error, the object itself is far smaller than the projected close pass.

Now if this object were still a year away from the close pass, I could see all the Observatories and satellites making a miscalculation in it's path, but it's one months travel time from earth. It's by far easier to guess direction when an object is that close to, than when it is a year off. Please, don't hold your breath. It's going to sail on by just like every other object that's come closer than the moon to us. it's 45 meters. It's a grain of sand compared to the earth.

Keep in mind the Hiroshima bomb sounds scary, but 40 times the Hiroshima bomb is still smaller than the largest H bomb ever detonated.

The little boy which was dropped on Hiroshima was a yield equivalent of 16kt , the largest ever detonated hydrogen bomb, was the Tsar bomba, which was a 57 megaton bomb.

The Tsar Bomba was a three-stage Teller–Ulam design hydrogen bomb with a yield of 57 megatons (Mt).[5] This is equivalent to 1,400 times the combined power of the bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki,[6] 10 times the combined power of all the conventional explosives used in WWII, or one quarter of the estimated yield of the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa.

The tsar bomba did not wipe out humanity, nor will DA 14. It will not cause an apocalyptic fall out winter. It is not even going to hit the earth. Calm down, don't fear monger please.

I quoted your entire post, for a reason.
You may be right, but Iam not fear mongering, you may trust what you are told by the scientists on this particular subject, but just perhaps they are selling us all a "don't worry pill".
You may think Iam a pompous ass, there are worse things, alsoyou cannot see the pomposity of your own post.

Have you ever observed an asteroid as close as this?
Well you must be old, thiswill be the closest asteroid...note asteroid..not meteor encounter in recorded history.

Yet anyone sounding a cautionary horn is a fear mongerer?

They are basing their prediction of DA14 not hitting Earth on perfect maths.

The error factor is minimized, as if space is a 100% known thing.

Not full of surprises or change...it may not hit , but it might, and that is what you are blinded to.

It will pass very close, and it is big enough to wipe out a city, or a nuclear plant, or a germ warfare lab.

Remember no one thought it likely that a Tsunami could trigger a nuclear reactor disaster.

That planes could bring down skyscrapers.

No fear mongers everywhere.

Cheers.

reply to post by boymonkey74

They say it will be a Magnitude 7 asteroid if it behaves as the experts PREDICT.
Therfore a small telescope or a pair of modest binoculars will be enough to witness DA14 .

Only in the darkest skies would you see it with the naked eye.

But if it comes closer , we may wish we couldn't see it.

Sorry to read you will be alone on the 14th, Iam thinking of you.

The composition would also affect whether it burned up or hit earth if it was headed there.
What I wonder is if its orbital path will be altered slightly by our gravity, I should hopefully still be living the next 2 times it swings by.