They don't know if Asteroid DA 14 will miss Earth for sure.

reply to post by Phage

Good question. Your bones can perform orbital calculations? But what you really mean is that you just think that the asteroid will impact Earth (contrary to what the refined orbital calculations indicate) and have a far greater effect than the physics of such an impact would indicate

I get the point of your relentless yet civilized and polite probing and poking.

But since the OP, the NASA experts have updated their" prediction" yet again.



The "estimated"minimum size of DA14 has now gone from 30m to 36 m.

What an exact science this Asteroid ORBITAL PREDICTION TRADE IS.

An approx 17% increase in their calculations, their expert calculations within approx nine hours.

Oh but it is an exact , expert spot on prediction, they shout to the world..".DA14 will not impact the Earth".

Yet they have revised the size parameters by 17%.

Perhaps next week we will learn the asteroid will have a minimum size of eighty meters, who knows, lets take bets.

They are mortals, they do not know for certain...anymore than I do. that.it will hit.

When the plague hit , the astute ones, escaped to solitude.
They knew despite the priests wailing that it was a sinners plague, that it was somehow connected to the air.

The plague was transmitted through the air.

So get away from common air.

Maths can tell you of orbits, but not of the truth.

It hides behind the truth,and declares itself as the truth.

Maths , cannot fathom why ...something modelled on a bird dropped a bomb that killed one hundred thousand people in Japan.

Maths is without reasoning...it cannot allow for the random acts of space.

That is why we need to keep alert on DA14.

reply to post by OrionsWitness



Im not going to bash on you, but youre contributing to the misinformation out there and I really do NOT believe it is your conscious intention There are enough pseudo-scientists spouting pseudoscience out there as if it were fact on definitely pseudo-fact based sites to confuse anyone. We are positively inundated by total BS these days on the internet that if one doesnt have a true and full understanding of it, it is best to refer to those who actually DO know more and understand it. I had looked many places when confronted when the question of Ison and impact was brought up, and there is NO way it will impact Earth. The only ones who are saying "they" dont know.. are the ones who REALLY dont know a darned thing about it. When calculating these things, it isnt a one shot deal. They are constantly recalculated and margins of error are already built into the calculations. Besides, Ison wouldnt be an ELE event in any case.. so the entire doomtarding for this particular rock is null.

However, if by some crazy coincidence a UFO kicked it off course and it came to impact Earth, you will see it in time to get on here and tell all of us that we were are "full of sh... "BOOM. If you want to gear up for doom.. just read this goofy idea to net an asteroid and put it into high moon orbit and play with it... Ahhh NASA...

reply to post by Advantage

They are constantly recalculated and margins of error are already built into the calculations.

So why are they constantly recalculating?

Because they do not know, the error margin is based on past observations.

The point being thiis is the closest since their theory modelling commenced.

Spot on constantly recalculating ie correcting their errors.

reply to post by OrionsWitness


If NASA sucks so much at predicting orbits and trajectories in space, then how do you explain the Deep Impact program? Seems like their math was spot on for that when they had their probe dead on for impact.

I have to confess that I'm baffled. In this thread, I see people who think nothing of using satellite-based communications services and / or GPSS systems claiming that NASA / JPL doesn't know how to calculate an orbital trajectory with ridiculous accuracy. This would be the same NASA that's done the trajectory calculations for the Cassini probe and the Voyager / Pioneer missions, yes?

Even if those ever-mysterious "powers that be" are hiding the truth from us, an impact from a 36 meter rock with the (insert spectacular fanfare for emphasis) power of forty Hiroshima bombs isn't going to be an extinction event. Truth be told, unless the human race rolls a real snake-eyes on the karmic dice, the resulting 8 megaton shock is going to hit either open ocean or sparsely-settled ground, and make a crater comparable to Meteor Crater in AZ (caused by something about 45 meters across). If it happens to land on a major city, things will be messy, right enough...but even then, it's not going to be the Apocalypse.

Settle down and apply some physics, folks...it's good for the soul.

reply to post by Phage


Thank you Phage. I knew this doom porn was a reach, I am just not well versed enough in astronomy to provide an accurate debunking.

reply to post by Trillium

Why take NASA word check for yourself look a lot closer to me Just download this free program of Celestia ver. 1.6.1 at

Because if you are willing to believe NASA is lying about the very stuff they need to report to keep getting funded, clearly you'd be paranoid enough to believe all star gazing software is also "gamed".

a 45 meter asteroid has very very little chance of having any of it make it to the surface.

So since 2012 didn't pan out, I guess we're back to having to talk people down from ledges for every single tracked object in space?

Yay.

reply to post by deathlord

If NASA sucks so much at predicting orbits and trajectories in space, then how do you explain the Deep Impact program?

Because only stuff NASA releases that fits with their paranoia is accurate, naturally.

reply to post by OrionsWitness


The Tunguska Comet was thought to be a similar size when it entered the atmosphere, recently a large fragment was found in one of the craters. So you could take your cue from that, although an asteroid may have a different effect, but not world ending.

Check this article and video out. If I didn't get the link to work correctly you can find the article over at Keelynet.com under the January 8 articles.

It will come within 14,000 miles of Earth!

If it does come within 14,000 miles of Earth that means at the least it will pass through the satellite belt twice.

now is it 21,000 miles from earths surface or the center?

I think its 4,000 miles to the center.

Originally posted by Phage

Don't be fooled by its relatively small size(45 to 75 meters)., if it impacts earth , it would cause destruction equivalent to approx 40 Hiroshima Atomic bombs.

Except that the energy would be released high in the atmosphere, not on the surface.

The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 47100 meters = 154000 ft
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 8540 meters = 28000 ft.
The residual velocity of the projectile fragments after the burst is 3.98 km/s = 2.47 miles/s.
The energy of the airburst is 7.52 x 10^15 Joules = 1.8 x 10^0 MegaTons.
No crater is formed, although large fragments may strike the surface.

www.purdue.edu...
Some windows might break, some trees knocked down.

Well it may hit , that is what.

No. It won't. The margin of error in the predicted orbit is very, very small.

edit on 1/10/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Nice one Phage the voice of reason once again,
2nd........................

21,000 miles and people are scaremongering lol. I imagine that the odds of this hitting earth are at very best remote. No offence to the op, its an interesting read.

Originally posted by kdog1982


Play around with this for awhile and find out.
It's the ultimate doomsday game.

www.purdue.edu...

Stupid windows 8 keeps me from playing it.

I have windows 8 I can perfectly open it... just go to desktop and use your browser.

a 75 meter chunk of rock by the time it hits earth would be 10m big, remember there is a very fine angle of attack that a body entering the earths atmosphere can "safely" pass thru without bouncing off or vaporizing instantly thru intense heat.

hardly earth shattering.

Yeah, I stopped reading once you lost all form of a coherent sentence and insinuated that because the projected arrival is the same as Galileo or whoever's birthday it was a sign.

I hope it does hit.....

Just so we can all come here and tell Phage he was wrong

Can somebody please tell me what exact time it passes, en where on the globe it could be seen
Thanks in advance

Originally posted by OrionsWitness
reply to post by Hijinx

 

So in failing to even understand the English language, you have yourself come off as a pompous ass. Professing your grandeur in alerting the world of a potentially fatal event thousands of scientist assure us all otherwise. \ Text

Again in your own pomposity

You accuse me of sounding off on baseless logic in this discussion.

The scientists know more than I , for sure of course.

But they are the same breed , who told the public , that they could hide under tables , in the event of an Atomic bomb being dropped over their heads.

The same breed of thinkers, who told the world only gay people could catch the HiV virus.

The same paid off Government stooges who advised the governments around the world that asbestos was safe, that theldomide was safe.

The same scientific caring minds that allowed DDT to be used on crops for decades.

The same breed of stinkers....that advised the Americans that Agent orange , was safe to humans.

The same great minds, that say mobile phones do not cause brain tumors.

They say what they say for MONEY.
Yes Iam a pompous ass...but so be it, it does not make the truth.... false.

DA 14 may impact The Earth.

And you will find no scientist on this earth who will 100% say it will not happen.

That is the crux of the OP.

Peace be with you , and may i bless you son,me being high and lofty , I ask thee to be humble.

Ummm, they knew about the radiation in space before the first man was launched. In fact, there is a man named James Van Allen, you should probably look up. I'm beginning to think you're entire argument is based of your own assumptions, rather than any sort of fact at all.

Hiding underneath something in any bombing will improve your chances of survival, as well as reduce exposure to shrapnel, heat, etc. It's the same with a conventional explosive mate, if you can not get to an effect air raid shelter during a bombing, your best bet is to get low. It isn't going to save you if you are close to ground zero, but it could save your life from the air and heat shock of an atomic blast.

I don't understand your logic once again, you have melded Science and government into one nefarious body here. There are always conflicting views in the scientific community with new unknowns. The problem here being, we are not bran new to the asteroid game, and we have not once said an asteroid would not hit, and then have it hit us. In fact, we got an accurate prediction on an impact event that I posted in my last post.

I can certainly understand your distaste and distrust of the government as yes they have made some very bold claims about obviously dangerous substances, as well as done truly horrific things and lied about them.

How ever, DA 14 is not only observed and tracked by NASA, but astronomers the world over. Professionals, in various scientific roles and organizations. Do you really think the astronomers the world over are going to lie to you and tell you nothing is going to happen when a potentially hazardous event could take place? If DA 14 was a threat to anyone on Earth someone would say something. Think of how many countries have professional observatories. Think of the masses of us on ATS who possess telescopes, or do just what we are talking about.

If DA-14 was a serious threat you would not be the only one trying to alert the masses. NASA is not the only organization capable of detecting, observing and tracking objects in space. You don't have the training or understanding of the math involved to even make said assumptions.

Even if we apply your 14% assumption, 14% of 21,000 miles still puts this object at a miss. You keep making bold claims, based on your own assumptions. I honestly suspect you have watched a youtube video, or read anyone of the millions of false claims online and are attempting to glorify yourself online. Nothing is going to happen. I trust the professionals who have been doing this very thing for more years than you have likely been alive, tracking more objects than you can count, with out a single object hitting us that they have calculated will not.