Quake Watch 2013

Originally posted by PuterMan

Originally posted by radpetey
I have a funny feeling that subduction area that is the Santa Cruz islands is going to unleash a monster.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

This is not an official prophecy, so you can't throw stones if I am totally off my rocker.

By the way....I flew off my rocker many moons ago

You may not be wrong however, and that is the area that I believe my blogging friend was trying to highlight.

At present the Santa Cruz activity is running across the 'bend' in the zone. Thinking on the larger scale it could be that as the whole of the Pacific plate rotates as a result of the stress changes after Japan it is cracking open the angle. But I am just guessing.

What intrigues me is the way the quakes are bracketing the main island. It is a fairly steep rise from the ocean floor to the island above land - about 1 in 15 both sides in the SW / NE line and the deepest part of the trough is ~5600 metres or about 3.5 miles.

Time as they say will tell.

edit on 1/2/2013 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)

I tried to find a little history on the area, but all I found were pages about recent activity.

It just looks like it could produce an 8.8

reply to post by MariaLida

Both deadline was passed and there was no any-kind of EQ ..

I am not in the least surprised, but I will wait until his Feb predictions have passed before consigning his prediction abilities to the bin.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by MariaLida

 

Both deadline was passed and there was no any-kind of EQ ..

I am not in the least surprised, but I will wait until his Feb predictions have passed before consigning his prediction abilities to the bin.

Hahaa you are funny, way you forcing again that blog man again ..

He never make any accurate prediction, so way that will be interesting ??

Way not from many others bloggers also predictions, I did not see you posting similar staff ??

Is that blog from your friend ?

Have so much earthquake prediction blogs site twitter fcb etc, what make some accurate prediction

Way not them and way we or members must take attentions of this blogger, tell me only one thing ..

Don't have time for this just open Goggle and post "earthquake prediction" you will find many more accurate prediction blogs from that blog, lo0l ..

Do I need to post them or advertising, lo0l ..

I find 15 website with EQ prediction, in 1 min ..

All this is really boring and some providential staff is present also, but to write 3 pages about someone who has never make any accurate prediction, time to leave this conversations I just losing time here ..

reply to post by radpetey


Back in 2011 I produced this stress sawtooth chart which shows a trendline that brings the current period in as likely to have a bigger quake.

I was not happy with the basis of that one and did a bigger one over a longer period that shows the area as not due to have a larger quake.

To be honest I am not even happy with that one either but have not had time to re-do it.

As far as I am aware the largest recorded quake in that area was Mag 7.9 Ms in 1980 (July 17), which followed a Mag 7.5 Ms earlier in July 1980 (8th)

The next largest was a Mag 7.8 Mw 1997/04/21. Historically at least there is no precedent for a Mag 8.8 but that does not mean it could not happen.

Darn it I forgot to add the reason 209 energy is so high is this

2009/10/07 7.70 Mw
2009/10/07 7.80 Mw
2009/10/07 7.40 Mw

It will be some time before enough stress builds up to repeat that I think.

reply to post by PuterMan


Hehehehe....I was just pulling that #(8.8) out me rear.

But a mid to upper 7 is still capable of producing big waves

That would be a big buzz kill in paradise.

Thank you for digging for or whipping up that info from scratch!

We should refer to you as 'The next quake baker'

We have a t.v. show in the states called 'The next great baker'

Magnitude 6.7 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time

Friday, February 01, 2013 at 22:16:35 UTC
Saturday, February 02, 2013 at 09:16:35 AM at epicenter

Location 11.058°S, 165.313°E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
Distances

375 km (233 miles) E (101°) from Kira Kira, Solomon Islands
613 km (381 miles) ESE (107°) from HONIARA, Solomon Islands
1989 km (1236 miles) E (97°) from PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea

earthquake.usgs.gov...

maps.google.com...,165.313&spn=2,2&f=d&t=h&h l=e

ORIGIN TIME - 2217Z 01 FEB 2013
COORDINATES - 11.1 SOUTH 165.3 EAST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 6.7

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL
TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES
IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

ptwc.weather.gov...

Seriously, another big one at the solomons, what is going on there? Are there any records of the past seismic activity? I would be really interested.

Originally posted by aLLeKs
Seriously, another big one at the solomons, what is going on there? Are there any records of the past seismic activity? I would be really interested.

Dangerous area and time for Santa Cruz Islands..

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by radpetey
I have a funny feeling that subduction area that is the Santa Cruz islands is going to unleash a monster.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

This is not an official prophecy, so you can't throw stones if I am totally off my rocker.

By the way....I flew off my rocker many moons ago

Maybe I better jump back on my rocker.........6.7 Santa Cruz.


And it's down to 6.3.

reply to post by MariaLida


If you are thinking they are foreshocks in Santa Cruz and a bigger one is coming, what do you think this area is capable of producing?

Again some more quakes down there... somehow I might also think, that there is something bigger coming. A swarm with this high mags is not normal?!?

I would not wonder if there would be an 8 or something on the way within the next days.... but hopefully it will just release the stress like this. not nice for the people there, but maybe better than a really big one

edit: I have just realised, that the smallest one there within this week was a 4.6.... which is not thaaaaat small
by the way historic seismic activity shows, that it is capable of producing an 8+ one
earthquake.usgs.gov...-seismicity_1900

but no 8+ in the last 23 years, so maybe it is time


edit2: maybe the usgs site does not show all historic seismic activity, I just saw that there was an 8 in 2007

sorry for double post, but I don't want to mix this two topics... I have just seen (as far as I can read this Japanese, because there are a few Kanji I can't read) that experts say that there will be a 30-42% chance of an M6-8 earthquake in Kyushu within the next 30years.

since this is freshly out, there are no english sources yet. so here is the original source
kyushu.yomiuri.co.jp...

Obviously some call for some historic data for Santa Cruz Islands.

Although part of Temotu Province of the Solomon Islands, in the F_E Regional list they are grouped with Vanuatu.
There are 2 areas , Santa Cruz Islands F_E 184 and Santa Cruz Islands region F_E 183
Search on ANSS as follows, the two areas together as one.

catalog=ANSS
start_time=1800/01/01,00:00:00
end_time=2013/02/03,00:00:00
minimum_magnitude=5.0
maximum_magnitude=10
event_type=E
polygon=-7,164,-7,173,-13,173,-13,164,-7,164

I've mapped that data below

[color=lime](click image for interactive map, opens in new tab/window)
On the interactive map I have split the data into 4 sections + the Plate Boundries + the F_E areas (the boxes)
You should be able to click each file on or off to see the different magnitude groups.
I have done the files at 5.0-5.5 as "moderate", 5.6 to 6.5 as "strong" and 6.5+ as "very strong", which is a more accurate description than simply 5,6,7,8 etc
If the files won't split for you, keep trying various combinations (tick/untick different boxes) as GMaps doesn't always do what you want it to do. It does work though, trust me.

the static screenshot images below open as full size if you click them.
recent events 2013 GFZ data

1962-2012 ANSS Mag 5.0-5.5

1962-2012 ANSS Mag 5.6-6.5

1962-2012 ANSS Mag 6.5-

The biggest quake on ANSS is a 7.9Ms on 17/07/1980.

I also did a search on Utsu, biggest quake he has is 113 years ago, 1900/7/29 6:59:- UTC, a 8.0"M" with a remark on the side 7.6Ms , so its bit suspect as an 8.
Location is north of the trench -10,165, so that is a bit odd too, Source: Ganse and Nelson (1981, 1982), Raid and Myers (1985)

reply to post by aLLeKs

like most things USGS that 1900 on map looks a bit suspect. looks like there are 3 mag 8's on it, but where is the data to back it up eh.?
ANSS only goes back to 1962.
I'm sure I ran the Centennial List as part of my World Mag 8+ map when I did it and the only one for Santa Cruz Is is the same one Utsu had.
I'll check that again though.

Thank you muzzy!

2013-02-02 13:35:35.0 20min ago 46.53 N 14.62 E 2 4.5 AUSTRIA

Magnitude ML 4.5
Region AUSTRIA
Date time 2013-02-02 13:35:35.0 UTC
Location 46.53 N ; 14.62 E
Depth 10 km
Distances 229 km SW Vienna (pop 1,569,316 ; local time 14:35:35.1 2013-02-02)
53 km N Ljubljana (pop 255,115 ; local time 14:35:35.1 2013-02-02)
14 km S Völkermarkt (pop 11,543 ; local time 14:35:35.1 2013-02-02)
7 km S Eberndorf (pop 6,088 ; local time 14:35:35.1 2013-02-02)

www.emsc-csem.org...



reply to post by MamaJ


This area think from M 7.0 to M 7.3 ..

I'm not too worry for this dangerous location, people already know and feel what happening also they are on alert and expecting strong EQ ..

I'm more concerned for other sensitive location and areas where people don't know that or what suddenly can come, most sensitive areas are Chile, "West Coast" and Japan ..

2013-02-02 14:17:34.30 7min ago 42.75 N 143.30 E 93 6.7 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION

Fortunately not shallow one ..

Magnitude M 6.8
Region HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
Date time 2013-02-02 14:17:34.0 UTC
Location 42.84 N ; 143.15 E
Depth 100 km
Distances 149 km E Sapporo (pop 1,883,027 ; local time 23:17:34.3 2013-02-02)
18 km S Otofuke (pop 40,944 ; local time 23:17:34.3 2013-02-02)
9 km S Obihiro (pop 173,890 ; local time 23:17:34.3 2013-02-02)

www.emsc-csem.org...

Typical, I stop tracking Japan NIED for 2 days because its the same old/ same old, and this happens.
For some reason NIED are not even showing this on their preliminary data.
but JMA are showing

23:17 JST 02 Feb 2013 42.7N 143.3E 120 km 6.4 Tokachi-chiho Chubu
www.jma.go.jp...

46 aftershocks so far within 30km, 2's and 3's, mostly to the NE
map pending ......


I don't think this was a 6.9, just check LISS MAJO (Matsushiro, Japan) or
ERM.II.10.BHZ

Correction, maybe it was, found this on the AQUA Focal Mechanism Catalog

Origin time (JST) * Region * Latitude * Longitude * Depth * Mw Strike Dip Rake Varred Number of station(s) Type
2013-02-02 23:17:44 TOKACHI REGION 42.8N 143.5E 100km 6.8 88.6˚/242.0˚ 89.6˚/0.4˚ 90.2˚/63.4˚ 81.9 8 C
www.hinet.bosai.go.jp...

Actually it depends whose location you use , if its JMA, the aftershocks are to the NE , if you use AQUA they are to the West
I used AQUA (for now)
here ya go

[color=lime](click image for interactive map, opens in new tab/window)

I'll check in again after the 12 hour mark

I just discovered this nied stuff on ustream and I am happy that I turned it off, because I had fallen asleep.... otherwise I think it would have woken me up

Interesting Article theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com...