Quake Watch 2013

reply to post by PuterMan


I watched it come in. No way. 5.4 TOPS. Watch what LDEO says, probably later today. I expect that magnitude to drop.

It's probably just an aftershock, of course from the recent 7+.

BUT, I can tell you this for sure: watching real time data, there are after shocks coming in, and the fault is moving still.


EDIT: also, look at what the phase data says for station CRAG: 4.7 mag, and that was the closest station. I swear, lately here there seems to be some kind of weird agenda for the USGS to push much higher magnitudes than they really are.

reply to post by radpetey


Don't have time to investigate much at present but casing around several of the seismos some look like either ice micro quakes, or in one case tree root rock. There is at least one avalanche/rock fall. All reasonably normal I believe. I would have to have a listen to determine more but I don't have time this morning.

If later tensor confirm the geometry, this is non conventional fault movement.

Queen Charlotte initial shock was a reverse, stress accomodating movement, and later aftershocks had normal, spreading movement, the secondary property of that strike-slip fault...

reply to post by wujotvowujotvowujotvo


I don't have a very good grasp of figuring out what the beach ball representations mean. Could you elaborate on how to figure out what kind of event is represented? I can't be the only one who doesn't understand them, it would probably be greatly appreciated by more than just me.

reply to post by TrueAmerican



Source: EMSC

Seems the crowd are agreed on 5.9 Mw so yes it will drop.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by Nyiah


Now the tensors were updated it's no longer valid

In the old it didn't match the strike-slip fault.

The Pacific side is going upwards, Alaska/Canada side downwards. Or as described "right-lateral"

The tensor had the opposite motion.

A little something to interest/amuse from a blogging acquaintance of mine.

Earthquake Swarm Prediction.

January 30, 2013 – Earthquake Swarm Prediction: Over the last 24 hours there have been three global earthquake greater than or equal to 6.0 magnitude: 1) 6.8 Mag. In Central Chile, 2) 6.0 mag. In the Santa Cruz Islands and 3) 6.2 Mag. In the Solomon Islands. Picture above from the USGS, 193 earthquake >= 2.5M over the last seven days – global.

All the other websites just report – We at the Chaos Blog predict Future Earthquake. Over the next 48 hours I will predict global earthquakes down to daily eight and five minute windows.

I await his prediction with interest.

He is into astrology in a big way and I believe makes a living using astrology to predict the stock markets.

reply to post by Nyiah


The foreground would be the pacific, making the motion opposite.

It was already a not so good fit with the fault trace, left side more toward north and right side more toward south.

Leaving the other, not highlighted trace starting at 39 degrees the one with unusual movement.

I should have waited more before posting...

reply to post by PuterMan


Thanks for the link, this should be interesting!

I see Mount. St. Helens is on the board this morning with some more red stuff. After I get my coffee in me maybe I will be able to read more.

Originally posted by MamaJ
reply to post by PuterMan

 

Thanks for the link, this should be interesting!

I see Mount. St. Helens is on the board this morning with some more red stuff. After I get my coffee in me maybe I will be able to read more.

Hi mo0m hi PuterMan, tell me PM where I can see any prediction from him I can find anything ..

There are any successful EQ predictions from him ?

To many people online this days claims they can predict but I can't see nowhere results, only from one or two persons maximum see some accurate predictions but that's all ..

We are already enter time of stronger seizmic activity with M 7.5 SE Alaska, next days also 3 months will be very active worldwide ..

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by muzzy
Already posted, but why today?
3 days after Full Moon

2013-01-30 23:03:45 6.0 10.67°S 166.54°E 10 A Santa Cruz Islands
2013-01-30 20:15:45 6.7 28.05°S 70.70°W 47 M Central Chile

on the Full Moon though
2013-01-28 16:38:55 6.1 42.59°N 79.76°E 18 M MT Lake Issyk Kul Region
source GFZ

edit on 30-1-2013 by muzzy because: mark 'em red

Moon is just one piece my friend if you ask me, for more of 10-15 very different pieces-influence what need to be calculated accurate ..

Personally wish I never go that deep to realize that and what I learn about EQ's, it's alive like Earth is

It's too complicated and hard, if is not in some case people would have long time accurate EQ prediction ..

Now I become slave of my own knowledge also did not have enough time for my real life, but I change that now I'm only sometimes "in" EQ's less and less every month ..

You must forget your life if you want to know more from other people, worldwide have smarter persons from us my friend and they can't do much or not enough in accurate EQ prediction ..

Problem with EQ scientists are simple, they are too rough and have the rules imposed on them also this rules are rooted from beginning ..

But hope that time will come someday ..

See many people are more and more interested in EQ's prediction, I know it's interesting but ..

Friendly advice to regular persons or members leave and don't start EQ prediction you just lose your praised time if you go to depth, you can't imagine how complicate and hard is to make only one or two accurate prediction, probably years of your life to "learn" all pieces-influence only and that it is not enough you must be able to feel and calculate this pieces accurate ..

It's something like you must guess which way animals will go in forest and most important where will animals rest, you have some clues some of them are good but you never can be positive where or when will (wind) animal go, maybe sometimes but that is not enough ..

Good luck, peace ..
R-M

OMFG. I am now mortally wounded. I might as well commit cyber suicide. I might as well just throw my computer and programs at PuterMan. Or maybe I should go on a lone wolf, cyber killing spree! It's a conspiracy I tell ya. LDEO has no shame. NONE!

LDEO: 6.0 on that SE Alaska quake.

BS I say! That barely hit 1 million counts at CRAG, saw it with my own two eyes!


Ok LDEO, from now on, you suck!

reply to post by TrueAmerican


The odd thing is that I wrote out, but never posted, a reply to your original edit about LDEO saying in essence that LDEO works on surface waves, and thus may be different. This time however it was not but it very much depends on the geology in between methinks.

When you throw the computer at me could you try not to damage it - or me please?

ETA: It looks a bit 6ish to me

CRAG.AT..BHZ.2013.031

Much biggly huge image on clickypoos

Just a final fling on Nevada before I forget about it. I processed the year aggregates and this does show an interesting set of trends. Confucius say, "Clicking image makes image bigger. This not work for everything!"

Originally posted by MariaLida
tell me PM where I can see any prediction from him I can find anything ..

There are any successful EQ predictions from him ?

I believe he said that he would list them in 24 hours so there are still a few hours to go.

As far as successful predictions from him go I am not aware that he has made predictions specifically before.

reply to post by MariaLida

Friendly advice to regular persons or members leave and don't start EQ prediction you just lose your praised time if you go to depth, you can't imagine how complicate and hard is to make only one or two accurate prediction, probably years of your life to "learn" all pieces-influence only and that it is not enough you must be able to feel and calculate this pieces accurate ..

First a humungously large number of stars should be awarded for the sagacity of your complete post.

I sit here nodding my head in agreement as I pour more and more time down the funnel of trying to work out when and where the next big earthquake will be.

Despite getting the totals about right for 2012, and the last part of 2011, and vaguely right about Vanuatu I cannot say when or where the next one will be.

I was not going to say this but, oh well I may as well be completely wrong.

2013 - 17 to 19 x Mag 7, 143 to 154 x Mag 6. No mag 8 or mag 9. These are CONVERTED figures so mb converted to Mw will lift 5.8 mb to 6.0 Mw etc. There - committed to post for posterity and ridicule.

Originally posted by PuterMan
Just a final fling on Nevada before I forget about it. I processed the year aggregates and this does show an interesting set of trends. Confucius say, "Clicking image makes image bigger. This not work for everything!"

edit on 31/1/2013 by PuterMan because: Links, links, lynx

HMMMM... It looks like we were both right and wrong at the same time. While the incidence rate went up the total energy went down. I declare a draw on the Nevada issue, how about you?

reply to post by MariaLida


He has posted some VERY specific predictions

Global Earthquake Prediction for February 2013.

The bottom graph shows the power of those forecast earthquakes. For example, the quake projected for tomorrow will be very strong, between 7.5 and 7.7 magnitude. This quake will occur at 70 South Latitude and 160 East Longitude, which is approximately 460 kilometers (270 miles) southeast of Gizo, Solomon Islands or 2,060 kilometers (1,260 miles) NNE of Brisbane, Australia.

Now that is being pretty specific! Unfortunately those coordinates are nowhere near where he says they are, unless I am much mistaken. HNR, the seismo on the Solomans is about 9.5 South - after all the Santa Cruz quakes are ~11 South. Maybe that should be 10 South.

reply to post by happykat39


Well I wasn't aware we were competing but OK let's call it a draw.

Not by way of retort, I would jus add that back just a few days under two years ago in Feb 2011 I posted Do earthquake numbers matter?

That is still my view on numbers and energy.

I have a funny feeling that subduction area that is the Santa Cruz islands is going to unleash a monster.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

This is not an official prophecy, so you can't throw stones if I am totally off my rocker.

By the way....I flew off my rocker many moons ago