Quake Watch 2012

Public release date: 16-Jul-2012

UK tsunami threat to be assessed in £2.3 million research project

www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-07/nocs-utt071612.php

Underwater landslides can be far larger than any landslide seen on land. For example, the Storegga Slide that occurred 8,200 years ago offshore Norway is larger than Scotland. It contained over 3,000 cubic kilometres of material (300 times the amount of sediment carried each year by all of the world's rivers combined) and ran out for 800 kilometres into the deep ocean. This truly prodigious mega-landslide generated a tsunami that ran up to heights of three to six metres along northern parts of the UK coastline. A modern day event of a similar scale to the Storegga Slide would be likely to lead to significant loss of life and devastating damage to key infrastructure, and there are few other natural events that would have such a disastrous impact on the UK.

A team of scientists is embarking on a four–year investigation to assess the hazard that landslide-tsunamis in the Arctic could pose to the UK over the next 100 to 200 years. This team is led by the National Oceanography Centre and involves seven other UK institutions, together with international project partners. The other UK institutions include NERC's British Geological Survey, Imperial College London, and the Universities of Aberdeen, Cambridge, Dundee, Manchester, Southampton, and Ulster. The team will work alongside representatives from government bodies and the reinsurance industry, including the Willis Research Network. They will look at the likely impact on human society and infrastructure, the degree to which existing sea defences are effective, and how the threat of tsunamis can be incorporated into the UK's multi-hazard flood risk management.

(...)

The Irish Times - Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Tsunamis may have hit Kerry coast

ANNE LUCEY

www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0724/1224320710205.html

THE POSSIBILITY that the south Kerry coast has over the centuries been struck by long tsunami waves of over 50ft in events that have lived on in folk memory has been raised by an archaeologist.

Cross-checking folk tales with archaeological and geological evidence, Alan R Hayden, director of more than 200 medieval excavations since 1987 in Ireland, said the grouping of Valentia, Beginish and Church islands may bear the scars of earthquakes and tsunami-type waves in medieval times.

His research is reported in the current edition of the Journal of the Kerry Archaeological and Historical Society.

Damage to the south and southwest surrounding walls of Church Island, an important early medieval ecclesiastical site, was unlikely to have been caused by a storm or heavy swell, he concluded.

(...)

Kerry Archaeological & Historical Journal

www.kerryhistory.ie/pubjo.html

Back Issues of Society Journal & Magazine

www.kerryhistory.ie/backi.html

reply to post by amcpwoy


You may find this documentary very interesting about the killer wave that struck the counties of the Bristol Channel and flooded miles inland in January 20, 1607 killing at least 2,000 people. Researchers examine all the evidence and have become convinced that the wave was a rare British tsunami.

Bristol Channel Flood - January 20th, 1607

reply to post by SpaceJockey1

yeah they got hammered, we haven't heard much about Rolleston in the Media, compared to the CBD or the Eastern Suburbs.
the NW suburbs seemed to have got off lightly, my family lived in Fendalton off memorial Drive (can't recall the street) in the 1970s.
The last 2 maps give a good clue to the tracks of the Faults, by the dark concentrations of icons, they are all over the place zoom at 10km/5km (on the View Larger Map version) seems the best level to see that

more on post by muzzy

I think I've fixed the loading problem.
3 issues.
1.For the colour coded Overview All Quakes map and the Mag5+ colour coded Map I tried to manipulate the 4 KMZ files inside Google Earth so that when it was on the Map version you could click/unclick each series. Seems GMaps doesn't like this, must be an issue in the html that writes the KMZ files.
So I've loaded them all as one file and it seems to work.
2. On the maps with 11,000 colour coded by series icons the i-frame was too small, so I've increased the size to 750x550pixels.
3. Even at that size the zoom level at 20km/10miles (which shows the whole area) won't load all the icons, but it does at 10km/5miles So I've set the last 2 maps at 10km/5km.

Next project is an update of the Dusky Sound 2009 7.8Mw aftershock series, should be a piece of cake, only 5510 aftershocks, shorter period though, just through to the Sept3 2010 quake.

reply to post by DonaldD

You may find this documentary very interesting about the killer wave that struck the counties of the Bristol Channel and flooded miles inland in January 20, 1607 killing at least 2,000 people. Researchers examine all the evidence and have become convinced that the wave was a rare British tsunami.

The moment I knew it was Bryant I just knew it was going to called a tsunami.

The man is a tsunami nut! He has forgotten to take into account that the narrowing of the Bristol Channel would have caused the same effect exactly the same way it does in minature every day with the Severn Bore.

This is the man who on the evidence of just ONE small area has decided on remarkably flimsy evidence that 105,000 years ago a tsunami in Hawaii washed over the coast of Australia. There is pretty much no way it could have happened, and most other researchers disagree with him.

Boulders are his favourite and what he points to as movement caused by tsunami but both these people ignore the 'bore' and the fact that the height of the storm surge was greater than the 5m he needed for the tsunami theory. It was proven by the other team to be 10 metres.

The original theory of a huge storm surge sounds much more plausible. There is no evidence of the supposed earthquake or of any landslide that could have caused this, and the evidence of massive high tides in Norfolk totally negates the tsunami theory.

By the way IF an earthquake off the coast of Kerry had occurred that was large enough to cause that kind of tsunami in the UK then you can rest assured that there would be even more evidence of it in Ireland both as a tsunami AND as a major earthquake. Many people would have been very shaken in Ireland. Is there any evidence of this? No. None.

Sorry Bryant, wrong! Bryant - tsunami nutter!

Magnitude 6.6 Mwp - Simeulue. Indonesia

Location in Google Maps

• Date-Time: Wednesday, July 25, 2012 @ 00:27:43 UTC
  
• Earthquake location: 2.516°N, 95.797°E,
  
• Earthquake depth: 33.0 km
  
• Distances:
  64km (39mi) W of Sinabang, Indonesia
  182km (113mi) SSW of Meulaboh, Indonesia
  303km (188mi) S of Reuleuet, Indonesia
  306km (190mi) WSW of Kabanjahe, Indonesia
  658km (408mi) W of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
  
• Event ID: pt12207000
  

Derived from Event Data Source: USGS
Powered by QVSData

Magnitude 6.0 mb - Simeulue Indonesia

Location map by EMSC (Google Map)

• Date-Time: Wednesday, July 25, 2012 @ 00:27:42 UTC
  
• Earthquake location: 2.436°N, 95.836°E,
  
• Earthquake depth: 10.0 km
  
• Distances:
  341 km W Medan (pop 1,750,971 ; local time 07:27:42.5 2012-07-25)
  322 km SW Binjai (pop 228,763 ; local time 07:27:42.5 2012-07-25)
  193 km S Meulaboh (pop 35,062 ; local time 07:27:42.5 2012-07-25)
  
• Event ID: 279358
  

Derived from Event Data Source: EMSC
Powered by QVSData

reply to post by PuterMan


Certainly hope this isn't a prelude to something bigger for the region (again)...possible "double-tap"!

Don't have access to the records but this one seems much closer to land than April's and earlier?

reply to post by PuterMan


If I might ask a personal favor? Is there a felt it report for these quakes anywhere. My Brother will be in Ko Samui, Thailand in 5 days, and I am wondering if something bigger were to hit, if he would be affected. At least he would be on the safe side as far as tsunamis go.

Still not a 7, how long has it been now? Feels like forever.....

reply to post by Doodle19815


April 11th I believe since the 8.6 and 8.2 on the same day.

When the next (overdue 7+) strikes, I just hope it's somewhere remote and unpopulated, though gut feeling is it's going to be the opposite

I believe there's been only 4 x 7 mag quakes so far this year, where last year we had a total 19 so certainly slow going at the moment. Maybe saving up for a late run towards the end of the year, so that the December 2012 doomporners can have something to get paranoid about...

reply to post by Doodle19815


Well seeing as PM is likely retired for the night-

Ko Samui, Thailand is about 650 to 900 km away from where the main action is near northern Sumatra. Depends on where it hit of course, but seeing as the last real big one was offshore of northern Sumatra, there probably won't be a real big one like that (8+) for quite a while. This 6.6, now downgraded to 6.4 Mw, was likely a belated aftershock of the last monster, as more faults and earth react to the stress redistribution from the biggy.

He'll probably be fine even if a bigger one did hit, but he'll definitely feel an 8+ in Ko, unless it was just super deep- like 600 km deep or so. He's also got Malaysia protecting him from any major tsunami from the bad zone in Sumatra, so he really doesn't need to worry too much about that either. That's not to say though that there couldn't be a bigger quake close enough to affect him, unrelated to Sumatra area- there's always the chance of that- but really, really small.

Just glad he's not going near Toba. I don't trust that thing, and this 6.4 was about 300 km or so from it. Every time a big one hits near there I just keep on wondering how much more that just pried loose the cap, or if it affected critical deep faults or crust that might be hanging on by a string, capping that beast. One just never knows.

And Ko IS about 600 km from Toba.... too close!

Thank you gentlemen.

SJ - I always listen to your "gut feeling".
TA - I am glad to have your watchful eye on the seismos.

Still learning, watching and waiting.

reply to post by SpaceJockey1


8 mag 7's in 2012 so far, if you stick to the purists view of Mw magnitude type,
I've got a couple of Ms's and an ML as well

catalog=ANSS
start_time=2012/01/01,00:00:00
end_time=2012/07/25,00:00:00
minimum_magnitude=7.0
maximum_magnitude=10
event_type=E

Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012/01/10 18:36:59.08 2.4330 93.2100 19.00 7.20 Mw 443 1.09 NEI 201201102033
2012/02/02 13:34:40.65 -17.8270 167.1330 23.00 7.10 Mw 573 1.07 NEI 201202022043
2012/03/14 09:08:35.14 40.8870 144.9440 12.00 7.00 Mw 552 0.88 NEI 201203142026
2012/03/20 18:02:47.44 16.4930 -98.2310 20.00 7.40 Mw 672 0.98 NEI 201203202037
2012/03/25 22:37:06.00 -35.2000 -72.2170 40.70 7.10 Mw 553 0.00 GUC 201203252059
2012/04/11 08:38:36.72 2.3270 93.0630 20.00 8.60 Mw 499 1.33 NEI 201204112018
2012/04/11 10:43:10.85 0.8020 92.4630 25.10 8.20 Mw 341 0.90 NEI 201204112060
2012/04/12 07:15:48.50 28.6960 -113.1040 13.00 7.00 Mw 474 1.18 NEI 201204122045

Geofon have raised their estimate from 6.1 (at 12:45pm when I looked)

GFZ Event gfz2012omko
12/07/25 00:27:48.24
Off West Coast of Northern Sumatra
Epicenter: 2.62 95.92
MW 6.3

geofon.gfz-potsdam.de...
Quite a low ML reading for this quake, the Indonesians have

Date 25/07/2012-07:27:43 UTC+7
Magnitude 6.4 RS
Depth 24 Km
Location 2.51 N 95.9 E
Information:
The quake's epicenter was at sea 24 km Southwest Simeleu
Felt (MMI):
III Banda Aceh, IV Simeleu
www.bmkg.go.id...

and USGS ML reading is only 5.9ML
neic.usgs.gov...

I'mas confused as ever, didn't PMan say that the South of Taranaki 7.0ML quakes was 6.6Mw on conversion, but in this case the ML is lower than the MW
I notice on USGS they say

M-type=(unknown type), Version=B

on the details page
earthquake.usgs.gov...

@TA. Thanks for responding for me.

@muzzy. It is confusing isn't it - there seems to be no rhyme or reason. Some of it will stem from the differences in calculating Richter in different areas and the many factors on which that depends.

The rest probably depends on whether, when called for "eye of newt", they ran out and used "eye of bat". It makes SUCH a difference to the formula.

Small earthquake of 3.8 magnitude rattles Los Angeles area - USGS

reply to post by kennvideo


Magnitude 3.8
Date-Time Wednesday, July 25, 2012 at 10:18:42 UTC
Wednesday, July 25, 2012 at 03:18:42 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 33.970°N, 118.425°W
Depth 9 km (5.6 miles)
Region GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
Distances 3 km (2 miles) ESE (112°) from Marina del Rey, CA
5 km (3 miles) SSW (209°) from Culver City, CA
6 km (4 miles) NNW (342°) from El Segundo, CA
7 km (5 miles) W (281°) from Inglewood, CA
19 km (12 miles) WSW (240°) from Los Angeles Civic Center, CA

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 0.3 km (0.2 miles); depth +/- 0.6 km (0.4 miles)
Parameters Nph=159, Dmin=1 km, Rmss=0.42 sec, Gp= 40°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=1
Source California Integrated Seismic Net:
USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR

Event ID ci15182841

Magnitude 6.6 6.5 Mwp - Solomon Islands

Location in Google Maps

• Date-Time: Wednesday, July 25, 2012 @ 11:20:31 UTC
  
• Earthquake location: 9.800°S, 160.200°E,
  
• Earthquake depth: 114.0 km
  
• Distances:
  39km (24mi) SW of Honiara, Solomon Islands
  603km (374mi) SE of Arawa, Papua New Guinea
  1016km (631mi) SE of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea
  1023km (635mi) E of Alotau, Papua New Guinea
  39km (24mi) SW of Honiara, Solomon Islands
  
• Event ID: usb000bfq0
  

Derived from Event Data Source: USGS
Powered by QVSData

Magnitude 6.5 mb - Solomon Islands

Location map by EMSC (Google Map)

• Date-Time: Wednesday, July 25, 2012 @ 11:20:26 UTC
  
• Earthquake location: 9.837°S, 159.742°E,
  
• Earthquake depth: 2.0 km
  
• Distances:
  2095 km N Brisbane (pop 1,843,392 ; local time 21:20:26.1 2012-07-25)
  1373 km E Port moresby (pop 283,733 ; local time 21:20:26.1 2012-07-25)
  38 km SW Honiara (pop 56,298 ; local time 22:20:26.1 2012-07-25)
  
• Event ID: 279423
  

Derived from Event Data Source: EMSC
Powered by QVSData

Similar size and depth between the two 6s.

Feels like an active week/weekend could be down the road.

looks to me that the two 6's are about the same size based on what SNZO is showing, Simeule being further away.
However again a strange magnitude type from usgs

M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
earthquake.usgs.gov...

maybe I just haven't been paying attention to that Parameters thing previously.

RAS have both mb and Ms for these, different mb but the Ms is the same

WHEN, LAT, LONG, DEPTH, Ms, mb, WHERE
2012-07-25 00:27:44.5, 2.65, 96.17, 33, 6.5/30, 6.4/31, Northern Sumatera, Indonesia
2012-07-25 11:20:24.6, -9.47, 159.72, 10 6.5/19, 6.1/12 Solomon Islands
www.ceme.gsras.ru...

So in summary for these two quakes (Simeule/Solomons)
USGS have 6.4 M-type=(unknown type)/ 6.5 M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw)
EMSC have 6.4Mw/6.3Mw
GFZ have 6.3Mw/ 6.3Mw
RAS have 6.4mb, 6.5Ms/ 6.1mb/6.5Ms

In terms of energy released there is quite a big difference between the decimal points when you get to mag 6's, a 6.5 being double a 6.3
MAG - TNT TONS - TNT KILOTONS
6.1 - 21,301 - 21.30
6.2 - 30,089 - 30.09
6.3 - 42,502 - 42.50
6.4 - 60,036 - 60.04
6.5 - 84,802 - 84.80


its harder and harder to compare quakes globally, as far as I'm concerned the only reliable source for this purpose is the Russian Academy of Sciences ( RAS), by using mb (and Ms when available) at least they are comparing apples with apples, not apples with bananas like usgs.

ETA;
LDEO are OK too, just posting Mw, but even they chop and change on review (as can be seen on my LDEO page for May and June)
Comparing the Simeule/Solomons quakes;

2012 7 25 0 27 44.0 2.50 96.50 33.0 6.2 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
2012 7 25 11 20 32.0 -9.75 159.75 33.0 6.3 SOLOMON ISLANDS
www.ldeo.columbia.edu...

lets see what they come up with on these tommorrow.
I need to get cracking on some updates on that, have the data saved, just haven't had the time to map and list it

China eyes new quake warning technology
English.news.cn 2012-07-25 22:36:34

news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-07/25/c_131738826.htm

BEIJING, July 25 (Xinhua) -- Chinese scientists will focus on developing new quake-monitoring equipment and warning technologies, according to an agreement signed Wednesday between the country's earthquake monitoring authorities and top research institute.

In order to reduce earthquake damage, the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences agreed to enhance cooperation on relevant areas, including warning and auto-response systems for major infrastructure, an expedited reporting system and new sensors for earthquakes, said the agreement.

The cooperation will also cover basic research on Earth sciences, as well as the application of shock absorption and structure consolidating technologies and materials.

In 2011, the CEA and its affiliated agencies channeled 797.5 million yuan (124.8 million U.S. dollars) into scientific research and technology development, or about 19 percent of its total spending.

Editor: yan
© 2012 Xinhua