Northeren Hurricane Watch 2011

Originally posted by Vitchilo

Originally posted by rancher1
You guys, what would happen of the TS in the gulf pushes north east, and the Katna pushes north west, so they both meet just south of NY, even tho they won't be hurricanes what would happen under this scenario ???

Won't happen.

Anyways. It is now a tropical depression.... and will be a tropical storm tomorrow... chances of hurricane are slim IMO... maybe a category 1...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

edit on 1-9-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)

I feel honored that my favorite poster in ATS responded to my post There is no one that has better post then the V man!!! Ya I'm serious,,, K about my post I just mean even if there just big storms when they meet not TS even..

I really wish someone could show me how you guys link the actual images. I get so sick of going back to check my links and finding them dead.

Anyway, latest report on Gulf Storm system. Weather Underground has listed it as TD 13

The aircraft data and buoy observations support an initial intensity of 30 kt. Although there is wind shear over the cyclone...an upper-level anticyclone is forecast to build over the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. This should provide a more favorable upper-level environment for strengthening. However...since the circulation is large only gradual strengthening is anticipated. The official intensity forecast follows this reasoning and is close to the SHIPS/lgem guidance.

The depression is expected to move very slowly during the next 5 days prolonging the period of tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

Source

And the next link is weather underground's tracking map which shows TD 13 making landfall as a Tropical Storm. If it does, this will be a non event and will actually be a good thing cause this area needs rain badly. It would actually be better if it turned more West and made landfall in parts of Texas as well, but I will take what I can get.

Tracking

reply to post by MrWendal

If you want to post the actual image,you first must save it to,like,your desktop.It helps if you have ats opened in two different windows.Click on tools,click on pictures.sign in with your id and password.click on personal upload. click on chose file to upload.find the file you downloaded to your computer desktop.click on add photo.Then your page will go to your photo album.Click on your pic you downloaded,will go to your pic.scroll down to the last link on the list below pic.right click it,click select all.right click it again,click copy.go to your other ats window that you are posting on and click image,right click and paste and there it is.
Man,I just got a headache from that!!

I've seen some new models... predicting Katia up to September 9... and if it follows it... it's heading right on NYC for September 11... and it's gonna be pretty strong.

We shall see.

And the latest from what is now called tropical depression 13 in the gulf of Mexico.




Tropical Depression Thirteen has developed over the Gulf of Mexico. As you can see on the projected path map below, this system is a very slow mover so it is poised to bring torrential rain and coastal flooding to parts of the northern Gulf Coast.

www.weather.com...

reply to post by kdog1982


Well thank god it's only gonna be winds at 60 mph.... hopefully not too much rain.

I would have preferred for it to go west... so it would have hit Texas... Texas needs water... BADLY....

Geeze my riding mower moves faster than this thing

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Well here goes.

Louisiana declares emergency as storm brews

Louisiana has declared a state of emergency as it prepares for a tropical depression to bring up to 15in (38cm) of rain over the weekend.

Tropical Depression 13 - to be named Lee if upgraded, as expected, to a tropical storm - is creeping north through the Gulf of Mexico.

Offshore platforms for Exxon Mobil, BP and Shell were shut down on Thursday.

Stay safe in Louisiana!

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Well here goes.

Louisiana declares emergency as storm brews

Louisiana has declared a state of emergency as it prepares for a tropical depression to bring up to 15in (38cm) of rain over the weekend.

Tropical Depression 13 - to be named Lee if upgraded, as expected, to a tropical storm - is creeping north through the Gulf of Mexico.

Offshore platforms for Exxon Mobil, BP and Shell were shut down on Thursday.

Stay safe in Louisiana!

Oh my,guess they are not expecting the levees to hold from a little ol' tropical depression.
Thank you government for fixing them to hold up against,what,a rain storm.
Sorry,NOLA,fema is out of money now.And it has only just begun.

I'm sorry to be so sarcastic,but gas prices are going to soar and the government has failed us again.
Be safe down there and heed the warnings.

reply to post by kdog1982


reply to post by kdog1982


I will stay safe, I can only pray the levees hold, I think they will, I hope they will, not much more I can do, been there done that 5 years ago

Anyway, here is the latest on the storm:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/6ec3dae55171.jpg[/atsimg]

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/474c3d91d528.jpg[/atsimg]

NEW ORLEANS -- A tropical storm warning has been issued for the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico -- from Pascagoula, Miss., to Sabine Pass, Texas.

Information gathered from reconnaissance aircraft led the National Weather Service to announce the formation of Tropical Depression #13 Thursday evening. The system was moving toward the northwest with maximum sustained winds of less than 40 miles per hour.

The National Hurricane Center projects the system will dump 10 to 15 inches of rain over southern areas of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Some areas could receive up to 20 inches of rain.

WDSU Chief Meteorologist Margaret Orr said the system is highly unlikely to reach hurricane strength.

Louisiana's governor has declared a state of emergency and several Louisiana parishes have issued similar declarations.

Read more: www.wdsu.com...

Latest...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 91.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

And Katia...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 52.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Stay safe in Southern Mississippi and Southern Alabama... you will probably get flooded....

Latest :
Katia :

LOCATION...18.4N 53.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

Lee :

LOCATION...27.5N 91.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE WARNING AREA OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN THESE AREAS. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

Lee :

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 91.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

Katia :

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 54.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

This hurricane, Katia seems to be slow mover too, and it seems to have weird route. It has moved almost straight route and went much more north than first expected. If it continues to go this same route, it will hit North Carolina. Good it passed warm waters so its not getting much stronger.

Here is the latest report on Katia.

once again tonight...there is an increase in organization of the cloud pattern with the formation of a round central dense overcast and a better defined outflow in conventional IR images. I have been lucky enough to have several microwave passes over Katia tonight. These data show a much better organized inner core structure than in earlier passes...but the circular ring of convection representing the mid-level eye feature continues to be displaced to the north of the low-level center due to shear. This suggests that the cyclone might not be as well organized as it seems in conventional imagery. Having said that...the initial intensity has been kept at 60 knots based on a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers. As stated in the previous advisory...Katia could reach hurricane status again at any time...and since the shear should begin to relax in about 12 to 24 hours according to the SHIPS model...a gradual intensification is indicated in the official forecast.

weather underground

Now for your on the ground Lee Update, SW Louisiana has seen plenty of rain and winds since early this morning. The first rain bands made it on shore around 4:30 am local time. I got off work around 6am and had the pleasure of riding my motorcycle home. Luckily for me the winds did not really kick up until after I made it home, but the rain did sting a bit

Thus far there is nothing happening than what you would have expected from this type of storm. Localized flooding in low lying areas. Wind all day. I missed most of it cause with all the rian coming down I slept like a baby all day. Tropical Storm conditions are expected all night and most of Sunday as well with the winds starting to ease up around early Monday morning.

Latest... Katia is getting powerful...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 60.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

Strong category 2, borderline category 3. Heads up Carolinas!

reply to post by Vitchilo


I don't know, I've been watching the weather channel and according to them, most of the computers are having this thing going north and staying in the atlantic.

Originally posted by crappiekat
reply to post by Vitchilo

 

I don't know, I've been watching the weather channel and according to them, most of the computers are having this thing going north and staying in the atlantic.

I hope so. We shall see in the next week.

Thanks to Vitchilo for sending me detailed instructions on how to post pics. We are now going to find out if I can follow directions well or if I am a complete idiot who just can not keep up with technology

Anyway here is the current 5 day projection from Weather Underground showing the expected turn of Katia. At this point, I am not putting a whole lot of stock into these projections. Thus far, Katia has not done anything she was expected to do. This storm was projected to be a Cat 3 by Friday. Didn't happen. There was nothing that indicated this storm would weaken which it did before quickly blowing back up to hurricane strength.

reply to post by MrWendal


Its not gonna be a problem. Chill, there are more to come.